The BludgerTrack poll aggregate records essentially no movement at all on national voting intention for the second week in a row, although the Coalition has at least avoided recording its eighth fall in a row. Reasonable results for the government from Newspoll and ReachTEL balanced a particularly bad one from Roy Morgan, which stands out like a sore thumb on the sidebar charts due to the correction made for the pollster’s otherwise pro-Coalition form since Malcolm Turnbull became Prime Minister. The Greens are down a bit, which it might be tempting to impute to Senate electoral reform, but it would pay to wait another week or two to see if the movement sticks. Only the ReachTEL poll was conducted after Turnbull’s election strategy announcement on Monday, but it produced no obvious evidence that anything had changed. However, there is a bit going on this beneath the surface this week at state level, with the Coalition gaining two seats since last week on the seat projection, but losing one each in Victoria and Queensland. On the leadership ratings, Newspoll has caused Malcolm Turnbull’s net approval rating to dip ever so gently into negative territory, while Bill Shorten’s continues to slog laboriously upwards, having slowly gained about 10% since the start of the year.
I would normally append this post with a bunch of preselection news and such, but I’ll be changing by MO now the pace has quickened with the inauguration of the phony election campaign. From now on, the news snippets will get their own post at the end of the week – and there will be a very great deal to report so far as preselection goes, with certain tardy state party branches now hurriedly getting their acts together ahead of an assumed July 2 election date. Also, what was formerly “seat of the week” is now “seat du jour”, starting with the entry below for Shortland, since I aim to make these a daily feature from now on. Eventually they will all be rolled together into the regular Poll Bludger’s seat-by-seat election guide.
befuddled
[ Well, the ABC haters must be weeping and wailing, gnashing their teeth, tearing their hair and rending their garments by now. ]
You are on obsessive idiot. Get over it and move on.
[ This AEC thing is so bad Turnbull may decide not to go to a DD. ]
No good. With stuff like this happening (on top of a 2014 style Budget???) if it gets bad enough to cancel the DD, it will be bad enough to still affect them later when they HAVE to go to an election. Maybe worse as people will have had time to digest it properly.
Hmmmmmmm…..maybe the Senate will use their 3 extra sitting weeks productively and have an inquiry into this??
If nothing else this seriously undermines the idea of an election fought on Union “thuggery” by making Liberal “criminality” a front and centre issue.
Theme for the next 3 weeks sitting may turn out to be, get your own house in order before you try and burn anyone else’s down.
ALP people will be in full panic mode now. 🙂
OMG……..so many options…..WTF do we do!!!!!
..and, of course, the irony is that your response demonstrates exactly the kind of thinking that the article is warning against.
[ Presumably the Libs will sue the AEC and seek expedition. ]
Expedition? Wot, send Arfur on one…..away somewhere, anywhere, just away….??
Nicholas,
Sanders is perfectly entitled to keep on going until his inevitable loss at the convention.
I have said it here before that I am not against Sanders as a candidate. I just think that in the context of US politics he is unelectable.
He appeals to a minority element of the electorate and his views are considered extreme by many.
When I say extreme I obviously say that in relation to the state of US politics.
I fully understand why the same people who support parties like the Greens support Sanders.
That is not a dig at the greens. It is just an observation.
As I have also mentioned here before my partner is a US citizen, coincidentally born and raised in Vermont and she is definitely a Sanders supporter but would vote for Mickey Mouse over a republican and will happily vote for Clinton come November.
Simple question for you.
If Clinton wins the Nomination which seems inevitable at this stage would you prefer a Clinton presidency or Trump presidency?
I am asking that as a genuine question and in good faith because I am struggling to understand the attitude of many supporters of Sanders who say they will vote for Trump over Clinton or simply abstain thus making a Republican administration more likely.
Cheers.
Re. Arfur’s latest sphinterical addition, now at least he has one for each cheek.
TPOF@145
I don’t regard the ABC as beyond criticism and have criticised occasional stories / decisions / presenters myself.
You seem to understand nuance and that it is shades of grey whereas others seem to expect it to be a propaganda outlet for the ALP and/or Greens.
This is a typical Turnbull clusterf*ck. He decides to crash through… and crashes, taking all souls on-board with him.
But even I am surprised at how quick the wheels came off. Must be a record even for The Enlightened One.
Noooooooo…..miniscule …devastation….decimation…
Poll set to devastate the Turnbull government
Tax plan that is likely to be at the heart of the Coalition budget has miniscule public support.
http://www.theage.com.au/#ixzz43mQz3oVK
Over at Business Spectator, I see that that tosser Hartwich has ditched one of his two first names-he now prefers to be known only as Marc-presumably because the two name thing was too obviously identifying of his nature.
However-as Mr Whitlam once said to the the Country Member-we remember, Marc, we remember…
I will also add that my criticism is of some Sanders supporters.
Sanders himself has been mostly decent in his criticism of Clinton and as the likelihood of him losing increases he appears to have stopped criticising Clinton personally altogether.
That is a good thing IMO because I have no doubt that Sanders would much prefer Clinton was President rather than A Trump or Cruz.
It is also my observation that the two candidates, Clinton and Sanders have generally tried to argue and debate ideas and policy in stark contrast to the republicans shit fight.
Sanders decency and unwillingness to play dirty makes it even more surprising to me that some of his supporters so viciously attack Clinton personally, not for any policy or track record and clearly state they would vote for the sexist, racist and elitist Trump.
Player One@151
Perfect example of projection.
don
Thanks.
And to think… this brilliant coup, this decisive thrust of tempered steel into the heart of Labor and union thuggery is only 3 days old.
Colton
You struggle because you don’t understand the macro level policy issues. The United States shifted to a high inequality, high labour wastage, oligarchic trajectory in the mid 1970s. The Clintons doubled down on that trajectory, profited enormously from it themselves, damaged th country, and now find themselves having to disavow huge chunks of their legacy to remain relevant in the Democratic Party. The differences between what Sanders and Warren represent and what the Clintons represent are profound and hugely important. The former are defining and embodying the substance of what the party stands for; the latter are hanging on electorally by dint of loyalty, nostalgia, sentiment, and historical amnesia. The policy direction of the party is far more important than who is nominated this year. There are larger issues involved than what a myopic horse race perspective can reveal.
Colton
My two cents worth on the Sanders supporter thing. I think they are disenfranchised Tea Party types a little smarter than the ones that just support Trump but failing an outsider to vote for in Democrats back to Trump they go.
They see Clinton as Establishment personified and thus more an enemy than any of the GOP candidates.
Thats my guess.
I am slowly but assuredly coming to agree with Bemused and others re the Greens.
Having just been working through a tough Brisbane City Council election, I am now convinced that the Greens don’t give a stuff who governs.
Once again, Greens preferences exhausted and ultimately helped re-elect the LNP majority.
A long-standing safe Labor ward went to the Greens.
In my ward, the Labor candidate lost by some 600 votes thanks to Greens vote exhaustion of 2,300.
Stuff the Greens and all they stand for – which is for themselves.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kWoj8Evyz2A&feature=youtu.be
O’Connor Presser
Colton
I do not pretend to be an expert on the Sanders campaign, but from tjhe little I can piece together
1. His activist supporters are young, passionate ahd hot headed. sure some may stay away from supporting Clinton, but most will turn out and work for her.
2. His VOTERS are a different story. These are not your typical greens etc, but rather older white males. Often unemplyed or in fear of their jobs, this group could vote Trump, but it is not really a case of ‘blame Sanders or his supporters” but rather a reflection of the unpredicatability of US politics just now.
The democrat super delgates will need to count the numbers in the swing states, examine the polling entrails and decide which of the two, Clinton or Sanders can best beat Trump, Cruz or Kasich.
Polling at the momemnt shows Sanders has the best chance against both Trump and Cruze but that Clinton should also win against both. Kasich would beat them both.
I am just delighted that Sanders can reprise his role as the Colonel at all KFC outlets once his election tilt is over.
E. G. Theodore@160
I see –
[ Business Spectator is in the process of being fully integrated into The Australian, ending its separate existence. ]
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2016/3/23/industries/medias-five-revolutions-and-counting
Iis an interesting article as well on how quickly the pricing of online ads is changing.
Feeney
You might want to look more closely at the figures for the greens vote. i was surprised to find that in The Gabba ward, Quirke polled a full 10% higher than the Liberal candidate in the ward.
I am assuming you are in Northgate the only seat close enough. 5% of that 13% Greens vote actually voted Quirke. So it was not a lost ALP vote that went adrift but rather a Liberal vote that the Greens won. In the Gabba the local Green grabbed about 8-9% of Quirke voters.
feeney
[ In my ward, the Labor candidate lost by some 600 votes thanks to Greens vote exhaustion of 2,300.
…
Stuff the Greens and all they stand for – which is for themselves. ]
The ALP needs to get this message across. The Greens are not a “soft option” for those who want to protest against the ALP on a single issue – doing so will help re-elect an LNP government.
Colton@161
Good stuff!
Both Clinton and Sanders are behaving admirably toward the other, in marked contrast to the Republican candidates. They will be able to come together when the nomination is secured and the loser will be able to call on their supporters to swing in behind the winner.
Rather like the genteel Labor leadership contest between Shorten and Albo.
Sorry first para should have been almost 10%
According to ABC news the govt. are saying that debris found in Mozambique is ‘likely’ to be from MH370.
I suppose that is welcome news and may help in identifying a particular piece of the plane but it still appears that they are no closer to finding the fuselage or any significant evidence of the planes location let alone the victims bodies.
I am no expert but after all this time at the bottom of the ocean would they experts be able to identify what actually happened to the plane. Would the black box be able to be analysed etc?
I do not want to sound callous but after all this time and hundreds of millions of dollars spent on what still appears to be a totally fruitless search I believe the authorities should just declare it lost and stop the search.
They could of given the families of the victims $10 million each and it still would of been cheaper and yielded as much information we have gleaned after over 2 years searching.
feeney@167
Congratulations comrade.
They are like those Sanders supporters we have been discussing who will support Trump or not vote.
They are worse than an annoyance, they are dangerous.
Colton
I think the money is worth spending. Its good diplomatic money well spent creating goodwill with China.
On that basis I have no problem with the money spent.
Capital Hill is all AEC expense scandal.
ARfur is the first story on 24’s Capital Hill.
reactions to AEC revelations of expense scandal
daretotread@172
Who is this ‘Quirke’ you keep referring to?
Not sure who watched this weeks ‘Foreign Correspondent’ with Paul Barry this week …… its easy to see where Trump gets traction with disaffected voters if those in Cleveland are representative of cities across America ….
http://www.abc.net.au/foreign/content/2015/s4429987.htm
Nicholas
[The differences between what Sanders and Warren represent and what the Clintons represent are profound and hugely important..]
Still haven’t read the article, which points out that the differences between Clinton and Sanders are wafer thin – particularly when actions are compared to rhetoric.
The article points out —
[.. Democrats brush aside things that he (Sanders) and other male politicians have done while raining fire on Hillary for the exact same thing–or something much less.]
[..Clinton is flamed for being a “career politician” and an “insider” when Sanders has been in political office much longer than she has.]
[..People flame Clinton for speaking in favor of the omnibus crime bill in the 1990s …Sanders, as a member of Congress, actually had the power to enact it into law, voting in favor of it despite the fact that many of his colleagues did not.]
[If you’re reviling Clinton for saying something racist and stupid in 1994 in favor of a crime bill that turned out to be a very bad idea, but you’re not reviling Sanders for actually using his political power to pass that very bad crime bill law, I want you to take a long, long think about why that is. If you’re reviling Clinton for campaign contributions made by banks, but did not revile Barack Obama for the same thing, I want you to take a long, long think about why that is]
And –
[there’s still far too much active hatred, and far too much of it is misogynistic or coded misogyny. Far too much of it stems from willing belief in conservative propaganda about Clinton that has been debunked over and over…]
It is probably worth noting that Sanders supporters do appear to be very like the Greens – white and priviledged, but pretending that they know what’s best for those who aren’t.
Colton@176
One reason to persist with what is otherwise an uneconomic search is the future impact it may have on air safety once the black boxes are found and the data extracted.
I admire your consistency in the war you are waging on the verb ‘have’. 😛
Feeney
Out of interest, did you at your booth use that apalling poster that highlighted a minor sexting issue.
If you did then I am not surprised at the result. Now I am proud to say that in my ward labor did really, really well getting a 16% positive swing. Not quite enough – needed 22% but still!!!
CTar1@180
Big item on 1:00pm news on 774.
Programmers may be having difficulty with all the Lib disaster stories in deciding what goes in a bulletin and what gets left out so it doesn’t just look like an attack on the Libs.
Colton
Two things –
[but would vote for Mickey Mouse over a republican and will happily vote for Clinton come November. ]
Hilary is Mickey Mouse so it all fits together.
And you managed 3 paragraph marks out of a possible 4 on your MH370 comment. ‘Improving, but needs to try harder’.
👿
Bemused
The Mayor of brisbane. LNP – took over from Newman.
We had three ballot papers- one for the referendum, one for mayor and one for our wards (roughtly the size of state electorates.
You are able to compare directly the role of the person/candidate versus the party in many cases. So in the Gabba ward the LNP Mayoral candidate got 41% of the vote and the Green 23%. The Labor vote was pretty much the same in both ballots but the green local candidate went up by 8-9% and the Libs dropped by the same amount. So in this case it would appear that the greens swiped a bunch of votes that would otherwise have gone LNP. This is EXACTLY what is good for labor and progressive politics, long term anyway.
daretotread@189
To the rest of the world he is Graham Quirk.
Colton, 176
[I am no expert but after all this time at the bottom of the ocean would they experts be able to identify what actually happened to the plane. Would the black box be able to be analysed etc?]
It depends – when South African Airways Flight 295 crashed into the Indian Ocean in 1987, the black boxes were found more than a year after the accident, and were damaged. They were still readable, just not all the way through – the salt water had corroded them. The fire on the aircraft may also have stopped the recording of information.
However, regardless of how much information will be able to be gleaned off the black boxes, there is still other information that can be found from the aircraft wreckage itself – particularly in-flight structural damage, and positions of instruments before the crash of the plane, etc.
Bemused
Oh FFS!!!!!!!
daretotread@192
😀
bemused, 185
[One reason to persist with what is otherwise an uneconomic search is the future impact it may have on air safety once the black boxes are found and the data extracted.]
I agree – I think it’s very important to find the aircraft and to figure out what went wrong, because if we don’t learn from an accident or a disaster, then we’re endangering other people’s lives when going on an aircraft. It’s one of the very few captain’s calls made by Abbott that I agree on.
Additionally, it’s entirely possible, regarding my above post, that the plane came down gently enough so as to not rupture the casing of the black boxes and therefore the data inside will hopefully be uncorrupted.
[ Programmers may be having difficulty with all the Lib disaster stories in deciding what goes in a bulletin and what gets left out so it doesn’t just look like an attack on the Libs. ]
More the quandary of:
Do we go with it now, or wait to see what other fwark ups happen today and do an omnishambles wrap up for the evening news??
[Who is this ‘Quirke’ you keep referring to?]
It’s a quirky spelling of Quirk.
Re the DD. Having announced to the world that he will go to a DD on 2 July unless the Senate passes his putsy bills, what will be left of Turncoat if they call his bluff and he does not follow through?
New Clarke and Dawe:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-LgswD4QveU
daretotread @ 186.
I am in the Coorparoo ward, where we achieved a 10% swing, but Green preferences exhausted significantly.
Yes, I agree there was a swing to Quirk in the Lord Mayoral vote.
I’m just concerned that we need to be more vigilant with the Greens and their sweet-heart deals with the LNP.
Of course, we have OPV in Queensland elections, State and Federal, thanks to Peter Beattie playing funny games. That fact undoubtedly hurt Labor and will continue to do so.
In the 2015 State Election Labor achieved 51.1% TPP but did not achieve a majority of seats.
Perhaps Annastacia can reintroduce CPV in the near future.
Actually he is Quirky Quirk. He does a weekly radio report called “Quirk’s Quirk”.