BludgerTrack: 51.3-48.7 to Coalition

The nation has gone on election alert, but there’s not much to report from the latest weekly poll aggregate reading, other than a continuation in the headlong plunge in Malcolm Turnbull’s net approval rating.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate records essentially no movement at all on national voting intention for the second week in a row, although the Coalition has at least avoided recording its eighth fall in a row. Reasonable results for the government from Newspoll and ReachTEL balanced a particularly bad one from Roy Morgan, which stands out like a sore thumb on the sidebar charts due to the correction made for the pollster’s otherwise pro-Coalition form since Malcolm Turnbull became Prime Minister. The Greens are down a bit, which it might be tempting to impute to Senate electoral reform, but it would pay to wait another week or two to see if the movement sticks. Only the ReachTEL poll was conducted after Turnbull’s election strategy announcement on Monday, but it produced no obvious evidence that anything had changed. However, there is a bit going on this beneath the surface this week at state level, with the Coalition gaining two seats since last week on the seat projection, but losing one each in Victoria and Queensland. On the leadership ratings, Newspoll has caused Malcolm Turnbull’s net approval rating to dip ever so gently into negative territory, while Bill Shorten’s continues to slog laboriously upwards, having slowly gained about 10% since the start of the year.

I would normally append this post with a bunch of preselection news and such, but I’ll be changing by MO now the pace has quickened with the inauguration of the phony election campaign. From now on, the news snippets will get their own post at the end of the week – and there will be a very great deal to report so far as preselection goes, with certain tardy state party branches now hurriedly getting their acts together ahead of an assumed July 2 election date. Also, what was formerly “seat of the week” is now “seat du jour”, starting with the entry below for Shortland, since I aim to make these a daily feature from now on. Eventually they will all be rolled together into the regular Poll Bludger’s seat-by-seat election guide.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

832 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.3-48.7 to Coalition”

  1. Sorry SilMaj 799, that made little sense.

    But if what your saying is that everything will collapse if negative gearing is removed, then that suggests it’s all just a house of cards…

    Any investment that can’t maintain itself through ongoing returns becomes one of these…
    [
    A Ponzi scheme is a fraudulent investment operation where the operator, an individual or organization, pays returns to its investors from new capital paid to the operators by new investors, rather than from profit earned through legitimate sources. Operators of Ponzi schemes usually entice new investors by offering higher returns than other investments, in the form of short-term returns that are either abnormally high or unusually consistent.

    Ponzi schemes occasionally begin as legitimate businesses, until the business fails to achieve the returns expected. The business becomes a Ponzi scheme if it then continues under fraudulent terms. Whatever the initial situation, the perpetuation of the high returns requires an ever-increasing flow of money from new investors to sustain the scheme
    ]

  2. Silmaj @791: So capital investors are such fragile, frail flowers that the prospect of actually contributing to the common good scares them overseas?

    Perhaps we’ll have braver people grow in the space they leave.

  3. 802
    If your neighbors house sells for a lower price then that is your new value. It’s also the banks new value. If a new home buyers equity is wiped then there savings are gone. Perhaps labor will explain that removing a certain type of buyer won’t lead to price depression but on the otherhand if it will help new home buyers.

  4. lol….

    UK & AU are two peas in a pod…

    Light Reading ‏@Light_Reading 15m15 minutes ago

    Eurobites: UK Govt Ups Pace on ’10 Mbit/s for All’ – Also in today’s EMEA regional roundup: UPC Cablecom expand… http://ow.ly/3cNdbV

  5. 805
    Ive been fighting and still am overseas competitors. But in the end if you want to discourage investment in this country then capital will go. Just recently had the first job return from Malaysia because the dollar helped with competitiveness. That job took 18 years to come back. Labors negative gearing investment changes will be instant. And don’t anyone lie. THEY ARE ON ALL INVESTMENT.

  6. 810

    If your business generates a profit selling goods or services (whether to Malaysia or anywhere else) then negative gearing is irrelevant.

    Negative gearing can apply to asset classes other than real property (and access to the scheme for these classes would be removed by Labor’s) is not relevant to activity being undertaken as a business (i.e undertakings intended to be profitable in the absence of capital gains).

    If you are undertaking an activity (not properly called a business) that is not intended to make a profit and remains solvent only becuase you subsidise it from other income then the best thing to do is to stop doing that (unless of course you are Rupert Murdoch running the Australian newspaper, in which case, carry on losing).

  7. My impression was that the ALP proposed NG changes would only affect property investment. The ALP proposed CGT changes would affect all investment.

  8. TPOF @ 806.
    The media piranhas can smell the blood in the water and are emboldened.

    Jones clearly no longer fears Turnbull’s late night demands to his CEO for his sacking for daring to express the bleeding obvious, and he and the other opportunistic piranhas will continue to tear little bits of flesh off until only a skeleton remains.

  9. 813

    NG is relevant to “gentleman investors”, i.e. people whose income is earned from something else (for example, employment as a gynecologist) and then “invest” for the purpose of making capital gains.

    NG is not relevant to businesses running a going concerns.

    NG could apply to a gentleman investor who has borrowed money to purchase share and then the dividends are less than the interest payments on the load used to buy the share.

    This would be quite risky however as shares are not subject to the same preferential arrangements that force up the price of real property (it is of course regrettable that real property is preferenced ahead of shares since shares are typically in productive assets)

    Consequently in practice the vast majority of assets for which NG is relevant are real property.

    Note that the largest interest in NG is not that of the people using NG themselves but rather that of the land bankers. The land bankers are (typically) businesses and can’t use NG directly (and in addition banked land is of course not rented); instead NG (and the CGT discount) work in the land bankers’ interests to force up the value of their banked land.

    Furthermore, this indirect NG/CGT effect provides an incentive for the land bankers to withhold land from use. As Winston Churchill said long ago: they profit in proportion to the disservice they render by the withholding of the land.

  10. EGT – I appreciate the lesson, however I was specifically talking about the proposed ALP changes – as I understood it the changes are specifically targetted at the property market (given that they create a distinction between “new builds” and “old builds” they kind of have to) and shouldn’t affect NG in other asset classes.

    And I was simply trying to clarify what we were discussing as silmaj was saying stuff like:

    Labors negative gearing investment changes will be instant. And don’t anyone lie. THEY ARE ON ALL INVESTMENT.

    Which I believe is conflating the two proposals – the NG changes wouldn’t affect “ALL INVESTMENT”, but the CGT changes clearly would.

  11. I believe that the ALP changes limit NG to investment in new real property only, so NG will not be available for loss making leveraged investment in shares (for example).

    So silmaj could validly say:

    THEY ARE ON ALL LOSS-MAKING INVESTMENT

    This has nothing to do with business investment which seemed to be his primary concern

  12. EGT – yup, fair enough. I think that’s correct having gone back and looked at what the ALP are proposing.

    From 1 July 2017 losses from new investments in shares and existing properties can still be used to offset investment income tax liabilities. These losses can also continue to be carried forward to offset the final capital gain on the investment.

    So clearly share investments are classed the same as “existing properties”.

  13. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Stand by for Eric Abetz to come out and accuse the ABC of bias after this Tony Jones interview with Turnbull.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-jones-and-pm-clash-in-first-lateline-interview-20160324-gnqsjv.html
    All is not well within the broad church suggests Mark Kenny.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/turnbulls-relationship-with-morrison-is-this-eras-defining-power-dynamic-20160324-gnqa47.html
    Lenore Taylor says schools and hospitals deserve a straight message from Morrison and Turnbull. She also refers to the talk of the town in Canberra – the simmering tensions between said two.
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/mar/25/schools-and-hospitals-need-a-straight-message-from-scott-morrison-and-pm
    Peter Martin looks at interstate migration rates.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/population-surge-melbourne-booms-as-locals-leave-sydney-20160324-gnqfd2.html
    Arfur lashes out as the finger gets pointed at him Again!
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/arthur-sinodinos-under-renewed-pressure-over-liberal-donations-scandal-20160324-gnqhsf.html
    And Labor calls for Arfur to stand aside.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/labor-calls-for-arthur-sinodinos-to-stand-aside-over-finding-nsw-liberals-concealed-illegal-donors-20160323-gnpyt1.html
    Ben Eltham looks at Arfur and the return of the Coalition’s probity problems.
    https://newmatilda.com/2016/03/24/arthur-sinodinos-and-the-coalitions-probity-problem-how-not-to-start-an-election-campaign/
    “View from the Street” sums up the sad. sad week for Arthur Sinodinos.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/view-from-the-street/view-from-the-street-its-been-a-sad-sad-week-for-arthur-sinodinos-20160324-gnqgwx.html
    This detailed poll is devastating for the government.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/election-2016-devastating-poll-shows-just-three-per-cent-of-voters-support-likely-budget-centrepiece-20160324-gnq4t5.html
    The Rockefeller Family Fund has divested itself of fossil fuel assets.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/rockefeller-family-fund-divests-from-fossil-fuels-which-built-familys-fortune-20160324-gnqc69.html

  14. Question @ 653

    That Lateline interview of Turnbull by Tony Jones was utterly embarrassing for Mal. He was contradicted numerous times by the well-prepared Jones. I almost felt sorry for him. Almost.

    The Labor Party could do worse than replay that interview during the election campaign (too long, but you may get my point); when cornered with facts he tried to resort to the trusty old Mal charm – smiles and affability, and of course, the waffle.

    God, the waffle.

  15. from last night, re the NSW Libs
    [
    The only thing that is going to defuse this is IF the Libs say who the donors were AND IF they were not prohibited donors.
    ]
    A lot of these donations were for the 2011 state election (I loved the way Turnbull phrased it as ‘an election in NSW in 2011’, as if there were so many of them that he wasn’t sure which election).

    As one of the purposes of the foundation is to obscure the donors and this is 5 years ago, what if the information on the donors is simply not available, so even, at the request of Baird and Turnbull the NSW Libs cannot comply.

  16. cud chewer@711

    bemused,

    When the ABC head of current affairs apologises to Nick Ross and the ABC start having some informed commentary on the MTM train wreck, then I’ll believe it was all my imagination..

    What a dumb post.
    Of course it happened and of course you won’t see that apology.
    I have never said the ABC always gets everything right, of course it doesn’t. Never has, never will.

    But overall, it does a pretty reasonable job. e.g. Lateline tonight.

  17. Good morning

    Bemused

    I am on the same page as you with the ABC. It is worth keeping it does not have continual bias against the ALP and Greens.

    It does however inevitably fall prey to bullying by the Federal Government communications minister.

    The truth is that Nick Ross has done a great service to Australians as his whistle blowing no matter the outcome for him personally has enabled people within the ABC to push back against the attempted emasculation.

    However with its following the rest of the MSM and its editorial direction it does have a right wing bias. This is so it does not appear completely out of touch to most Australians.

    If the ABC alone took a true balanced approach it would appear to be completely out of touch on politics. Why? Facts are left leaning and the total long term right wing bias of commercial media with its inbuilt bias to big business owners. That is without even getting to the propaganda sheets that are the Murdoch press.

    However putting all that aside just for the entertainment it provides if nothing else the ABC is worthwhile.

    I am a huge critic of the ABC bias I have seen but I too don’t see why we should throw the baby out with the bathwater.

  18. Last two sentences on that article Mr Duffy posted (Dr Duffy?)

    [What’s the big lesson to learn, in a century when machines can learn?
    I offer it’s that jobs are for machines, and life is for people.]

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