The BludgerTrack poll aggregate records essentially no movement at all on national voting intention for the second week in a row, although the Coalition has at least avoided recording its eighth fall in a row. Reasonable results for the government from Newspoll and ReachTEL balanced a particularly bad one from Roy Morgan, which stands out like a sore thumb on the sidebar charts due to the correction made for the pollster’s otherwise pro-Coalition form since Malcolm Turnbull became Prime Minister. The Greens are down a bit, which it might be tempting to impute to Senate electoral reform, but it would pay to wait another week or two to see if the movement sticks. Only the ReachTEL poll was conducted after Turnbull’s election strategy announcement on Monday, but it produced no obvious evidence that anything had changed. However, there is a bit going on this beneath the surface this week at state level, with the Coalition gaining two seats since last week on the seat projection, but losing one each in Victoria and Queensland. On the leadership ratings, Newspoll has caused Malcolm Turnbull’s net approval rating to dip ever so gently into negative territory, while Bill Shorten’s continues to slog laboriously upwards, having slowly gained about 10% since the start of the year.
I would normally append this post with a bunch of preselection news and such, but I’ll be changing by MO now the pace has quickened with the inauguration of the phony election campaign. From now on, the news snippets will get their own post at the end of the week – and there will be a very great deal to report so far as preselection goes, with certain tardy state party branches now hurriedly getting their acts together ahead of an assumed July 2 election date. Also, what was formerly “seat of the week” is now “seat du jour”, starting with the entry below for Shortland, since I aim to make these a daily feature from now on. Eventually they will all be rolled together into the regular Poll Bludger’s seat-by-seat election guide.
TPOF
I have seen more integrity in a used car salesman spruiking the clapped out Mazda at the front of the lot, complete with its shiny new mag wheels.
http://www.justinian.com.au/archive/high-court-admonished.html
The head of the electoral commission panel was Keith Mason, former President of the NSW Court of Appeal (a superb lawyer and a lovely bloke). Funnily, when he resigned as President (in 2008) he gave Dyson Heydon a serve.
[Malcolm should do something (but won’t).]
Pretty accurately sums up the entirety of Turnbull’s tenure as PM so far.
I gather that Baird is throwing flowers, chocolates and soft soap in an attempt to prove he’s nothing like the Federal Libs.
This really ties the Feds and the NSW party together.
It’s huge.
The NSW Libs will not be getting any more electoral funding for anything (past, present or future) until they cough up the donor list.
Ramping up a notch now:
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/labor-calls-for-arthur-sinodinos-to-stand-aside-over-finding-nsw-liberals-concealed-illegal-donors-20160323-gnpyt1.html
davidwh@70
Good.
Parkinson has been reported as the architect behind the disaster of the 2014 Budget. Abbott, hockey and credlin also deserve credit for their ‘contribution’.
The government have to wear the responsibility of course.
The sainted Ken Henry designed the disaster that was the original MRRT.
Hopefully Parkinson will repeat his effort this year.
Looking forward to morrison being questioned on the reported ‘rift’ etc between turnbull and himself.
And when they do cough up the donor list, one would suspect Arfurs days are over
DAVIDW – I can understand you having certain ideological views (which I don’t share) But it must be very depressing to see the mental rejects the Liberal Party sends to Canberra every year. Scum who couldn’t get a job in middle-management. Where do they find these people? They only survive because the right-wing MSM overlooks their manifest flaws. What a sheltered workshop.
K17
Also from the IPA and the NSW so called Tourism TaskForce – or whatever its called.
The Libs are going to need a fall guy for the illegal donations. Judging from his dummy spit the last time he was stood down Arthur does not seem to be the type to volunteer. If he is forced to walk the plank the fall out could be interesting.
[Whenever talk turns to the budget or tax or when politicians enter into campaign mode you can be sure there will be mention of ordinary or middle Australians. But who are these people? The latest taxation statistics allow us to see the occupations of people who are earning the median Australian income, and not all of them fit the usual list of people uttered by politicians.]
http://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2016/mar/24/the-budget-is-coming-so-standby-for-talk-of-ordinary-australians-who-are-these-people
Brendan O Connor presser on expense scasndal now
O Connor applying the Pub test to Sindodinos so beloved of the Press Gallery
michaelkoziol: O’Connor says “it doesn’t pass the pub test” that Sinodinos could be oblivious to the goings-on while he was treasurer of NSW Liberal Party.
O’Connor: Abbott has shown a higher standard than Turnbull.
And no questions???
TPOF@106
What’s next? Call for arrest?
O’Connor presser no holds barred.
No clear air in sight for the tories.
Excellent!
lizzie
I think there was one or two. Quickly dried up when answers were better than prepared speech for Labor.
All credit to the NSW Electoral Commission for taking a stand on the Free Enterprise Foundation. Everyone has known for years that these foundations, not unique to the Liberal Party by the way, are money laundering operations.
MayneReport: Cracking move by the NSW electoral authorities to withhold Liberal public funding until proper donation disclosure: https://t.co/peu2wZhpS3
[ No clear air in sight for the tories.
Excellent! ]
More like strong headwinds, freezing rain and great gobbing hailstones. 🙂
Excellent!
ProfPCDoherty: We are taking a massive, avoidable risk, but how do we find the guts to change? it is possible! https://t.co/lwnUDcRlzc via @ConversationEDU
PoliticsFairfax: Devastating poll shows just three per cent of voters support likely budget centrepiece https://t.co/XpRHgU5lBQ https://t.co/lsbpgXDF2f
Presumably there would be taxation implications if the Foundation loses its status as a charitable trust by dint of the findings of the Electoral Commissions.
The assertion that Baird has obstructed the Electoral Commission in its work by frustrating ICAC is wrong. ICAC has been stymied in its reporting on the Foundation by the unsuccessful High Court case brought by Jeff McCloy
Zoomster @ 18
Thanks for linking to that article about Sanders supporters and their irrational hatred of Clinton.
I have mentioned it here a few times recently.
The institutional privilege combined with an undercurrent of sexism and paternalistic racism of these people mainly those described as ‘Bernie Bros’ is evidenced by their blatantly sexist and hypocritically unfair attacks on Clinton and their dismissal of the african american community as uneducated and less informed because they have the temerity to vote for Clinton and not Sanders.
If Sanders reflects after he loses the Democrat nomination (which he will) on why he failed to earn the votes of most minorities and women over 30 he should look no further than the rancid behaviour of many of his supporters.
That these white, middle to upper class and educated ‘millenials’, from probably the most privileged generation in the history of the US threaten to vote for someone like Donald Trump and the divisive rhetoric he spews out about blacks, mexicans, muslims, women etc says it all.
It is also worth noting for the benefit of those Greens supporters here who seem to be wishing for a Sanders victory and still want to say that the ALP and LNP are ‘as bad as each other’ (because using their own figures the ALP vote with the LNP 40% of the time) that when they were both in the senate Sanders voted the exact same was as Clinton 94% of the time.
Using Green logic it is undeniably obvious that Sanders is just as bad as Clinton so they should be quite happy with a Clinton win when it comes.
K17 I actually don’t have an ideological tie to any political party. I am probably more of a swinging voter who has tended to swing more to the bad guys in the past. Happy to call a spade a spade when the Liberals are acting like disorganised idiots who are incapable of managing a lemonade stall.
Redoing link at 124 This goes direct to correct page.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/election-2016-devastating-poll-shows-just-three-per-cent-of-voters-support-likely-budget-centrepiece-20160324-gnq4t5.html
davidwh
[Bemused #75 it does come with substantial challenges :devil:]
You should be prepared for an influx of prominent Liberal Party figures hiding out, like Italian Mafia Dons, in camouflaged camping sites in the Bribie Island scrub.
The local shopkeepers looking intimidated will be a sure sign.
This AEC thing is so bad Turnbull may decide not to go to a DD.
guytaur
But will the Libs *agree* that it’s so bad? 😉
lizzie
A long campaign with public funding could bankrupt the LNP. Without public funding Turnbull may have no choice but avoid a DD to avoid LNP bankruptcy.
[ The Electoral Commission said that as of yesterday, the Liberal Party would receive no further public funding, saying it had not sufficiently responded to the Commission questions since February.
“The party will remain ineligible until it discloses all reportable donations in relation to its 2011 declaration.” ]
That has gotta hurt. 🙂
The Libs are going to HAVE to get this resolved, somehow, before Parliament comes back on the 18th. There is going to have to be a very comprehensive deck clearing exercise happen between now and then.
They should be filling that 3 weeks with major policy announcements not serious scandal and disunity stories.
Will be interesting to see what the ALP follow up with? Must be very tempting to hold off a bit and leave the focus on Lib travails so their own announcements dont get swamped. Timing is difficult as who the fwark knows what new Lib screw ups will be out and about tomorrow…or even this afternoon. 🙂
And really, on the Belgium bombings. I am VERY unimpressed with the way Turnbull and Bishop are dealing with this.
If they have criticisms of security to make, that should be, at this stage at least, a behind closed doors thing. Its very crass, politically opportunistic and I think diplomatically damaging to be doing that openly as an initial response. Turnbull and Bishop are way out of their depth….again.
Won’t you just love it if, after bringing back the Senate, they spend the whole time grilling Arfur about his dodgy dealings.
Talk about an overdose of schadenfreude. 😆
Presumably the Libs will sue the AEC and seek expedition.
The question is whether such a suit will entail a challenge to the fact of doubtful donors or simply that the act requires no more disclosure than that provided.
The other aspect is whether they can be denies all the dough or only that in dispute ($693k)
Bernie Sanders is defining the Democratic Party’s priorities for the next few election cycles. That is indispensable work. Hillary Clinton has a bad record on policy and is a retread of failed discredited ‘Third Way’ capitulations to the Right. The Sanders candidacy is forcing her to modify her positions significantly.
Bernie Sanders has the funds and voter support to campaign in every remaining primary and caucus and to win many of them. This will stop Clinton from walking back her Damascene conversions on wealth inequality, pay-to-play policymaking, punitive welfare policies, incarceration-heavy criminal justice policies, and so on.
Hillary Clinton campaigned until the last primary in 2008. It is contradictory of her supporters to demand that Sanders cease campaigning or confine himself to criticising Donald Trump. The struggle over the direction of the Democratic Party is ongoing. Bernie Sanders can best serve his party and country by continuing his campaign.
Well, the ABC haters must be weeping and wailing, gnashing their teeth, tearing their hair and rending their garments by now.
The World Today led off with a lengthy item on the rift between Turnbull and Morrison. No comfort for the Libs there.
They then followed up with an item on the Brussels terror attack and included the Belgian Ambassador putting Turnbull firmly back in his box over his comments at the Lowy Institute.
That’s in the first 10 minutes, could be more to come. 👿
[Presumably the Libs will sue the AEC and seek expedition.]
Will they seek a total suppression order? 🙂
A nice tightly argued article about consumer confidence and Morrison and political trajectories with some interesting numbers in it.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/opinion/david-uren-economics/dangerous-to-measure-morrisons-success-with-consumer-confidence/news-story/2caebdf7a5b0a3835436ac1dbba227d6
I seem to recall that the general issue was raised a long, long time ago in Crikey. If I recall correctly some Crikey psephs did not accept the assumptions shared by Morrison and Uren.
[This AEC thing is so bad Turnbull may decide not to go to a DD.]
It wouldn’t surprise me to see them provide the list either days before, or just after the election so that the public doesn’t get to see who gave the money.
In the meantime they’ll probably borrow a few million to tide them over.
AEC could hold up the proceedings once commenced by issuing a subpoena to the Foundation for the donors
N
Bernie Sanders is damaging the chances of a Democrat President being elected. The reverse side of the coin is that he is helping the chances of a Republican President being elected. Maybe Trump will run Sanders as his VEEP?
Naturally the Australian Greens are entranced with Sanders’ reckless approach. I do mean, literally, reck less. Because the Australian Greens are contributing to Turnbull’s success.
Bushfire
I think you’re right on the money, so to speak.
Shellbell,
The AEC seem to be saying that the Liberal party has been laundering donations through this Foundation.
They have also questioned its standing as a bona fide charity.
If this is true, there will likely be major repercussions.
Arthur’s poor memory is not going to save him this time.
bemused @ 137
[Well, the ABC haters must be weeping and wailing, gnashing their teeth, tearing their hair and rending their garments by now.]
I don’t think you counted me into the worst of that group, but I was pretty strongly of the opinion that the ABC has dealt poorly with Labor for some years. From 2010 to 2013 it was because it was totally subsumed into the groupthink of the Press Gallery and the Insiders. From about 2012 onwards it was that and the sheer bloody financial and political intimidation of Turnbull and Abbott. In some ways it is still moving with the groupthink – although that is moving to Labor’s benefit.
As far as the ABC not rushing to report anti-Liberal stories, I have no problem. It carries a particular responsibility to ensure that it is reasonably satisfied that anything it reports is substantiated. Every news outlet, public or private, has been burnt by picking up and running with false or incorrect reporting and they need to avoid that happening.
That said, the ABC has had some pretty strange decisions about story selection over the past few years.
Boerwar@139
OK, so I right clicked, opened the link in an incognito window, and got nothing but an invitation to subscribe.
Copy and paste the text part of the link, however, get a google search page, click on the link, et voila!
So right clicking and an incognito window does not work in some instances.
Colton@126
Great post Colton.
I am attracted by Sanders, but any of his supporters who do a dummy spit and vote for Trump are a long way from me, but do clearly exhibit a lot of Greens mentality.
Nicholas
Didn’t read the article, did you?
It doesn’t suggest for a minute – and neither has anyone here – that Sanders should stop campaigning.
What are you, some kind of machine that automatically generates a post in response to a key word?
ABC TV News at Noon in Sydney didn’t mention the AEC situation which is all over most other media.
Not a sausage.
Zilch.
O’Connors presser was on 24 so they had it all on video.
[Arthur’s poor memory is not going to save him this time.]
Perhaps Arthur could explain that his onerous duties as Chairman of Australian Water Holdings distracted him from properly supervising the financial flow of donations to the NSW Liberals.