The Coalition’s downward odyssey in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate enters its sixth week, although the movement on voting intention is slight this time, since all three pollsters this week (Newspoll, Roy Morgan and Essential) essentially repeated the results of their previous polls. Nonetheless, the 0.2% shift has been enough to bag Labor gains on the seat projection in New South Wales and Queensland. There is even more encouragement for Labor from the leadership ratings, on which Malcolm Turnbull is tanking rapidly, albeit that his head remains above the waterline in positive net approval. Bill Shorten’s trendlines are pointing northward, although he still has a very long way to go. Kevin Bonham had the following to say about the Newspoll leadership ratings, a day before they were corroborated by Essential Research:
Turnbull is still far more popular than Bill Shorten, but he’s dropped 35 points in the four polls taken since last November. This loss of 35 points in three and a half months is exceeded only by Paul Keating in 1993 (43 points in just over three months), John Howard in 1996 (36 points in six weeks) and Howard again in 2001 (38 points in six weeks). The 1996 Howard example comes with a big asterisk too, because Howard was falling from the career-high +53 netsat he had jumped 24 points to reach in the immediate aftermath of the Port Arthur massacre. It is not at all normal then for a PM to lose this much popularity this fast, but then again it is not that normal for them to have it in the first place.
Electoral matters:
• Phillip Coorey of the Financial Review sees the two possibilities as the much-touted July 2 double dissolution, or a normal election in mid-August, either of which would leave time for a same-sex marriage plebiscite to be held by the end of the year. He also relates that the government is “exploring the logistics” of bringing down the budget on May 3, rather than the scheduled date of May 10, which is one day before the deadline for calling a double dissolution expires. Among other things, this would allow the government time to attempt to get its legislation reinstating the powers of the Australian Building and Construction Commission through the Senate. Its reject would confirm its currently contestable status as a double dissolution trigger, which the Greens sought to retain by having the government agree not to reintroduce it during the current session as part of its deal to legislate for Senate electoral reform.
• Amid talk of a possible early state election, Queenslanders go to the polls next Saturday to vote on a referendum proposal that would render such a thing impossible, by introducing fixed four-year terms with elections set for the last week in October. The referendum has been timed to coincide with local government elections, which also means that the big partisan prize of the Brisbane lord mayoralty is up for grabs. According to a Galaxy poll of 540 voters conducted for the Nine Network, Liberal National Party incumbent Graham Quirk holds a 53-47 two-party lead over Labor’s Tim Harding. This compares with his winning margin of 68.3-31.7 at the 2012 election, which was held a few weeks after Anna Bligh’s government had been decimated at the polls. The Galaxy poll also found Brisbane voters favouring the referendum proposal by 48% to 35%, but Steven Wardill of the Courier-Mail, offers that “regional Queenslanders are expected to be much more sceptical towards the proposal”.
Preselection matters:
• The Liberal preselection to anoint a successor to Victorian Senator Michael Ronaldson has produced a surprise winner in James Paterson, the 28-year-old deputy executive director of the Institute of Public Affairs. Paterson will shortly fill the casual vacancy to be created by Ronaldson’s imminent retirement, and will head the party’s ticket in the event of a normal half-Senate election. It had been generally expected that the position would go to Jane Hume, a superannuation policy adviser who had the influential backing of Michael Kroger, president of the party’s state branch. Hume had earlier won preselection for the number three position on a Coalition ticket that allocates second place to the Nationals. Also in the race was Amanda Millar, who filled a casual vacancy for Northern Victoria region in the state upper house in August 2013 but failed to win re-election in November 2014; and Karina Okotel, a legal aid lawyer.
• Labor’s preselection in Fremantle will be conducted over two days on Sunday, when a ballot of local members determining 25% of the total result will be held, and Monday, when the rest is to be determined at a meeting of state executive. The two nominees are Josh Wilson, chief-of-staff to outgoing member Melissa Parke and the local deputy mayor, and Chris Brown, a Maritime Union of Australia organiser and former wharfie. Observers say that Wilson will dominate the local party ballot, but factional arrangements are likely to tip the balance in Brown’s favour at state executive. The winner will face recently preselected Greens candidate Kate Davis, solicitor for tenants’ rights organisation Tenancy WA.
• Tim Hammond has been preselected without opposition to succeed Alannah MacTiernan as Labor’s candidate in Perth. Hammond is a barrister specialising in representing asbestos disease victims, one of the party’s national vice-presidents, and a member of the Right. It appears that the Brand preselection will go the same way, with no other contenders standing in the way of Madeleine King, chief operating officer of the international policy think tank Perth USAsia Centre. Other confirmed Labor candidates in winnable seats are Matt Keogh in Burt, a commercial lawyer and president of the WA Law Society, who ran unsuccessfully at the Canning by-election in September; Anne Azza Aly in Cowan, a counter-terrorism expert at Curtin University and founder of People Against Violent Extremism (as seen here last week in Seat of the Week); Tammy Solonec in Swan, an indigenous lawyer; and Bill Leadbetter in Hasluck, executive director of an obstetric practice and occasional history academic. Aly and Solonec both have a past with the Greens, Aly having been endorsed as a candidate for the 2007 federal election before withdrawing from the race, and Solonec having held an unwinnable spot on an upper house ticket at the 2013 state election.
• The New South Wales Liberals are preparing to determine their Parramatta preselection through a trial plebiscite of local party members of more than two years’ standing. A push to make such ballots the norm was rejected at the party’s state conference in October, to the chagrin of the religious Right faction in particular, but a compromise deal backed by Mike Baird has allowed for trials to be held in a small number of federal and state electorates over the coming years. Kylie Adoranti of the Parramatta Advertiser reports 278 local members are eligible to participate, together with the members of the state executive and further representatives of the state council and the Prime Minister, collectively accounting for 28 votes. Nominees include current Parramatta councillor Jean Pierre Abood; former Parramatta councillor Andrew Bide; Charles Camenzuli, a structural engineer and building consultant who was the party’s candidate in 2010, and also sought preselection unsuccessfully in 2013; and Felicity Finlay, who also contested preselection in 2013, and appears to be a school teacher.
• Labor’s national executive has taken over the preselection process in the New South Wales seats of Barton and Hunter, initiating a process that will be resolved on Friday. The beneficiary in Barton will be the state’s outgoing Deputy Opposition Leader, Linda Burney. National executive will also determine her successor in the state seat of Canterbury, where a by-election now looms. In Hunter, Joel Fitzgibbon is to be confirmed as candidate for a seat that effectively merges his existing seat of Hunter with Charlton, which has been decommissioned in the redistribution. The intervention enforces a deal in which Hunter remains secure for the Right, who have been frozen out in Barton by the endorsement of the Left-aligned Burney.
• Labor in New South Wales also has normal preselection processes in train for ten other seats, including two in the Hunter region: Shortland, where Jill Hall is retiring, and Paterson, which the redistribution has transformed from Liberal to marginal Labor. Shortland looks set to be the new home for Pat Conroy, whose existing seat of Charlton has, as noted above, been rolled together with Joel Fitzgibbon’s seat of Hunter. Conroy says he insisted on facing a rank-and-file ballot. Nominees in Paterson include Meryl Swanson, a local radio presenter, and Robert Roseworne, decribed by the ABC as a “Port Stephens community campaigner”. Both preselections are scheduled to be resolved the weekend after next.
• Nationals MP John Cobb has announced he will not contest the next election, having been member for Parkes from 2001 to 2007, and Calare henceforth. The front-runner to succeed him as Nationals candidate in Calare appears to be Andrew Gee, member for the state seat of Orange, although media reports suggest opponents may include Wellington councillor Alison Conn, Bathurst businessman Sam Farraway, Orange councillor Scott Munro, Bathurst mayor Gary Rush, Lithgow councillor Peter Pilbeam and Bathurst region farmer Paul Blanch, who was the Liberal candidate in 2004.
abcnewsPerth: #BREAKING: Former federal MP Stephen Smith confirms publicly he will challenge for WA Labor leadership if majority of party back him
This is a very sober look at what a Donald trump Presidency would mean in Asia:
http://asia.nikkei.com/Politics-Economy/Policy-Politics/Thomas-Wright-What-a-Trump-presidency-could-do-to-the-world?page=1
TPOF@2544
[ don at 2535
I’d like to think I do know how to do irony. ]
No, you are not in the race. You appear to think it means saying something wrong.
[ the expression of one’s meaning by using language that normally signifies the opposite, typically for humorous or emphatic effect. ]
It has to be cleverly done, and the average reader should find it obvious that you are taking the mickey.
Saying something stupid, as you do regularly, thinking (wrongly) it is clever or funny, just makes people think you are a RWNJ.
It might work in the pub, where you can use body language to augment your english skills, but not here.
http://www.sbs.com.au/comedy/article/2016/03/10/joyce-vows-destroy-windsor-mine-destroys-farmland
Wow. Everything has turned blue.
don
It is green on mine but I read it all anyhow.
TonyHWindsor: @InsidersABC The program might like to correct its error today re timing of announcement to stand in New England ..fact check…Thankyou
guytaur @ 2542,
Straw man, guytaur. Initially you tried to say that all cancer came from ‘within the body’. When it doesn’t.
‘Within’ is not without.
That is the one and only consistent point that I have been trying to make and which you will not acknowledge.
It’s. As. Crystal. Clear. As. That.
Catmomma
Skin cells are within the body unless its dead skin thats shed. That is living cells. That is part of the body. Full stop. Thus cancer cells in the skin are in fact part of the body.
Full stop crystal clear. Thats why I added the part about removing skin cancer with surgery to try and forestall your lame attempt at making out living skin cells are not part of the body.
Guys could we just drop the whole skin cancer analogy. It does not add a lot of value and has the potential to be quite upsetting for people whose lives have been affected.
guytaur and Pegasus explaining away di Natale’s dirty deal.
“Why, sometimes I’ve believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast.”
don @ 2553
[Saying something stupid, as you do regularly]
OK, Don. Got you. I’ll make sure to only copy your posts so I don’t say something stupid in future.
P.S. That’s SARCASM, in case you missed it.
What a silly pedantic, argument.
Keep it up TPOF, nothing is too sacred in my book. Have no trouble recognizing the humour in your posts, but then again I loved the league of gentlemen comedy, of which my partner absolutely hated, so humour is subjective.
The Catallaxy mob are something else, especially when you post there provocatively under an obviously female name .
C@tmomma@2552
Thanks for that C@t.
What is gob-smacking from your link is that at least some high ranking Republicans are going to vote for Clinton (and presumably make their decision very public) if Trump becomes the Republican candidate.
We live in interesting times.
Don,
I saw Rubio this morning and he might be one of them.
JW
With my last post I don’t think I can put it any clearer so have no reason to repeat it.
I will leave it up to readers to judge if skin is part of the body or not and if my original comment was accurate.
However no matter how you try people are going to use diseases as analogy it happens all the time.
Senator Dastyari is just the latest public figure to do so.
TPOF
The problem for some people is that they not only don’t ‘get’ irony, they don’t understand humour either. Sometimes life’s a bitch. 😀
For a test of your understanding of irony sarcasm and humour I suggest you watch Yes Minister. A stellar example of all of the above.
Oh and if you want a sample of the same in writing the Yes Minister series is available as books
lizzie
Are you one of those people?
Stupid Americans and their guns
gqforbes: ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT on Donald Trump at 3/12 Dayton Ohio Rally Thwarted by @SecretService! #dtmag @realDonaldTrump https://t.co/nrHSZs1CSb
MTBW
Which people?
My apologies to Americans who are not US citizens I know the country is not the continent.
Tricot@2500
Smith would need to acquire a personality to become a leader. As one poster put it last night, he has as much personality as a wet mop.
Good afternoon all,
As I am not from WA any contribution I would make to the Stephen Smith announcement would be moot at best.
Whether it is a good decision or not I will leave to others.
However, Stephen Smith is a very good numbers man and he would have a very clear idea as to the true state of ALP polling at the state level in WA. He does not strike me a a individual prone to each decisions.
The main game is whether WA labor is close to the 9 – 10 % swing it needs to unseat the liberals and if not does MCGowan have the ability to get labor there.
I will leave all the internals and the righteous or not of the Smith move to those from WA.
Cheers.
I realise the lector
lizzie
Those that you referred to here:
[The problem for some people is that they not only don’t ‘get’ irony, they don’t understand humour either. Sometimes life’s a bitch. :D]
[Clearly, the hard heads in the Party don’t believe that McGowan can win.]
The thing is it’s not like McGowan hasn’t had a shot. Sure circumstances mean he has a much much better shot this time, but he’s been leader for over 4 years now. He wouldn’t be in this position if a clear majority of his caucus felt he was going to get them into government next year. At the end of the day, that’s the criteria. If you lose the faith of your caucus you lose the leadership.
Smith strikes me as a solid choice to move to state politics. No he’s not flamboyant, but he will come across as immensely experienced and steady. So long as once he’s in everyone falls into line there will be no damage. He’ll get a honeymoon bounce and so long as he doesn’t scare the horses or suffer from infighting he should hold a good part of it against a government that is ripe for a big loss.
The biggest danger for Labor in WA would be seen as risky. Whatever criticisms you might level at Smith risky is probably not one of them.
I like this tweet. So true.
Bukumbooee: Dear Voters
If you feel like LNP are screwing you at every turn, that’s because they’re a profit making business, not a government. #auspol
[they’re a profit making business]
If that’s the case, I’d call SELL for any shareholders.
MTBW
I was addressing TPOF and possibly guytaur. They understand me.
Ouch. Poor Clive!
http://marktheballot.blogspot.com.au/2016/03/palmer-on-03.html
TPOF
Yes selling is the only way to change the management that is dudding the shareholders.
C@tmomma@2531
The ‘open ticket’, as I have seen it, is in fact a double sided ticket with one side preferencing ALP and the other preferencing LNP.
So rather than a refusal to recommend how anyone votes, it gives two competing recommendations.
Only a Green would see the logic of this.
guytaur
[ Yes selling is the only way to change the management that is dudding the shareholders. ]
What makes you think they are dudding their shareholders? You are not a shareholder in this government unless you earn over
a million dollars a year. Ten million gets you shares with voting rights. One hundred million gets you a seat on the board.
Don went green with irony.
Those Greens HTV cards are like that old Irish joke.
How do you send a greens supporter more insane?
Put PTO on the bottom of a Greens open ticket HTV card.
bemused
Best thing to do is no HTV card at all. However if the Greens want to give their advice to voters of which major party a voter may choose to be the government I see the logic of the Greens handing out two HTV.
IF another party was in with a chance of forming government then more HTV would have to be done for that party too to be consistent.
Thats the only sense I make out of the two HTV cards. I certainly would not be handing them out if it was my decision.
P1
I will concede your point. I was thinking voters were the shareholders. However maybe voters are the Stephen Mayne and in the News Limited share holders meeting. 😉
I think Tasmania should reintroduce whaling …
[ http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-03-13/labor-greens-want-senate-inquiry-tasmania-energy-crisis/7243038 ]
… then they could use the whale oil for energy. Electricity is obviously beyond them if they can’t even figure out how to fix a broken cable 🙂
Re Pegasus @2523, 2529:
My point was that the Greens are entitled to make arrangements / deals. I wasn’t accusing you or anyone of saying that they weren’t, although that seemed to be the tenor of some posts (not yours specifically).
As for who to deal with, the Liberals are the Greens’ enemy. The Liberal’s represent Big Money, Big Business and sections are allied to Big Churchianity. Their media allies are on record as calling for the ‘destruction’ of the Greens. The Liberals’ allies want to screw the workers, screw the disadvantaged, screw the environment and block action on climate change, to leave more for them. We have seen how they are prepared to lie and cheat to achieve their objectives, with a lot of power and money behind them. I would suggest that the spoon the Greens bring along when they talk to the Liberals be very long indeed.
As for Labor, many of its number also regard the Greens as the enemy, unwisely in my view. Labor and the Greens have much in common. Of course, Labor and Greens constituencies have a lot of overlap, and this leads to some friction. But Labor and Greens can do business together, they can cooperate. This scares Big Money, who want to push the idea of the ‘extreme Greens’. What, more extreme than someone who believes coal is our future?
Anyway, sorry for the very long answer.
(I am not nor have I ever been a member of a political party).
[However if the Greens want to give their advice to voters of which major party a voter may choose to be the government I see the logic of the Greens handing out two HTV.]
It’s good you see the logic because I am struggling! Surely it goes without saying that people know that they may choose to preference one party over another. You don’t need a how to vote card for that.
Itep
Thats why I would not be handing out the cards but obviously parties have decided that HTV cards are necessary. Someone made the point its part of the theatre of democracy to show a party is committed to winning the seat.
That makes as much sense as anything to me.
[Electricity is obviously beyond them if they can’t even figure out how to fix a broken cable]
And the Tasmanian government suffers from the brain infection caught from the Abbott RWNJs; in denial of the obvious economic benefits of proper planning of wind and solar energy development and distribution.
The problem for McGowan’s argument is Bob Hawke.
Change of leader at literally the last minute was an election winning mood. All his arguments apply to incumbency not opposition.
sorry mood = move
Opposition is a great time to remove a floundering leader. WA Labor need to pull McGowan’s life support as though they are yanking a lawn mower. McGowan has had his go and wasn’t able to capitalise. Stephen Smith is highly respected by the public for his competence and intelligence. He is definitely worth a go.
I suppose if the Greens issue a double sided HTV card, then that local coucil member and Penny Wong will publish one side of it and accuse the Greens of preferencing Liberals.
Bemused@2575 and later Doyley @2576
You are right about Smith and his charisma but McGowan and he both went so the same school for undertakers in terms of the public persona so I don’t think that counts. In addition, Trump is a classic case in the US where there is loads of ‘charisma’ but so what?
And Doyley, you are also on the money as I sense Smith would not buy into this unless he thought (a) Labor might not win with McGowan and (b) Might win with him.
I am not quite into the school of hard knocks in regard dumping of LOTOs as there have been plenty here who have jumped to the defence of Shorten when his performance has not exactly set the world on fire.
Not only that, but if every LOTO who does the hard lift during long years of opposition senses that some so-called high flyer from Head Office will be parachuted in, who would ever want to take on the role of LOTO?
It was salutary that Labor had no compunction those years ago junking Hayden – which ensured the defeat of the LNP. However, we will never know that he could not have won in his own right – Drover’s Dog and all that.
I suppose it is wheels within wheels as Hawke was then taken down by Keating and Howard thrashed Keating. Howard in his turn not only lost government and his seat also.
Politics is really a mug’s game.
Tricot@2599
Thanks for that.
I am disadvantaged by having next to know knowledge of McGowan and in particular his personality or lack thereof.
I don’t regard Trump as possessing any charisma of a desirable type. He is a demagogue.