BludgerTrack: 51.3-48.7 to Coalition

The bottom falls out from Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings, early federal election speculation mounts, early Queensland state election speculation sprouts, and preselections abound across the land.

The Coalition’s downward odyssey in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate enters its sixth week, although the movement on voting intention is slight this time, since all three pollsters this week (Newspoll, Roy Morgan and Essential) essentially repeated the results of their previous polls. Nonetheless, the 0.2% shift has been enough to bag Labor gains on the seat projection in New South Wales and Queensland. There is even more encouragement for Labor from the leadership ratings, on which Malcolm Turnbull is tanking rapidly, albeit that his head remains above the waterline in positive net approval. Bill Shorten’s trendlines are pointing northward, although he still has a very long way to go. Kevin Bonham had the following to say about the Newspoll leadership ratings, a day before they were corroborated by Essential Research:

Turnbull is still far more popular than Bill Shorten, but he’s dropped 35 points in the four polls taken since last November. This loss of 35 points in three and a half months is exceeded only by Paul Keating in 1993 (43 points in just over three months), John Howard in 1996 (36 points in six weeks) and Howard again in 2001 (38 points in six weeks). The 1996 Howard example comes with a big asterisk too, because Howard was falling from the career-high +53 netsat he had jumped 24 points to reach in the immediate aftermath of the Port Arthur massacre. It is not at all normal then for a PM to lose this much popularity this fast, but then again it is not that normal for them to have it in the first place.

Electoral matters:

Phillip Coorey of the Financial Review sees the two possibilities as the much-touted July 2 double dissolution, or a normal election in mid-August, either of which would leave time for a same-sex marriage plebiscite to be held by the end of the year. He also relates that the government is “exploring the logistics” of bringing down the budget on May 3, rather than the scheduled date of May 10, which is one day before the deadline for calling a double dissolution expires. Among other things, this would allow the government time to attempt to get its legislation reinstating the powers of the Australian Building and Construction Commission through the Senate. Its reject would confirm its currently contestable status as a double dissolution trigger, which the Greens sought to retain by having the government agree not to reintroduce it during the current session as part of its deal to legislate for Senate electoral reform.

• Amid talk of a possible early state election, Queenslanders go to the polls next Saturday to vote on a referendum proposal that would render such a thing impossible, by introducing fixed four-year terms with elections set for the last week in October. The referendum has been timed to coincide with local government elections, which also means that the big partisan prize of the Brisbane lord mayoralty is up for grabs. According to a Galaxy poll of 540 voters conducted for the Nine Network, Liberal National Party incumbent Graham Quirk holds a 53-47 two-party lead over Labor’s Tim Harding. This compares with his winning margin of 68.3-31.7 at the 2012 election, which was held a few weeks after Anna Bligh’s government had been decimated at the polls. The Galaxy poll also found Brisbane voters favouring the referendum proposal by 48% to 35%, but Steven Wardill of the Courier-Mail, offers that “regional Queenslanders are expected to be much more sceptical towards the proposal”.

Preselection matters:

• The Liberal preselection to anoint a successor to Victorian Senator Michael Ronaldson has produced a surprise winner in James Paterson, the 28-year-old deputy executive director of the Institute of Public Affairs. Paterson will shortly fill the casual vacancy to be created by Ronaldson’s imminent retirement, and will head the party’s ticket in the event of a normal half-Senate election. It had been generally expected that the position would go to Jane Hume, a superannuation policy adviser who had the influential backing of Michael Kroger, president of the party’s state branch. Hume had earlier won preselection for the number three position on a Coalition ticket that allocates second place to the Nationals. Also in the race was Amanda Millar, who filled a casual vacancy for Northern Victoria region in the state upper house in August 2013 but failed to win re-election in November 2014; and Karina Okotel, a legal aid lawyer.

• Labor’s preselection in Fremantle will be conducted over two days on Sunday, when a ballot of local members determining 25% of the total result will be held, and Monday, when the rest is to be determined at a meeting of state executive. The two nominees are Josh Wilson, chief-of-staff to outgoing member Melissa Parke and the local deputy mayor, and Chris Brown, a Maritime Union of Australia organiser and former wharfie. Observers say that Wilson will dominate the local party ballot, but factional arrangements are likely to tip the balance in Brown’s favour at state executive. The winner will face recently preselected Greens candidate Kate Davis, solicitor for tenants’ rights organisation Tenancy WA.

• Tim Hammond has been preselected without opposition to succeed Alannah MacTiernan as Labor’s candidate in Perth. Hammond is a barrister specialising in representing asbestos disease victims, one of the party’s national vice-presidents, and a member of the Right. It appears that the Brand preselection will go the same way, with no other contenders standing in the way of Madeleine King, chief operating officer of the international policy think tank Perth USAsia Centre. Other confirmed Labor candidates in winnable seats are Matt Keogh in Burt, a commercial lawyer and president of the WA Law Society, who ran unsuccessfully at the Canning by-election in September; Anne Azza Aly in Cowan, a counter-terrorism expert at Curtin University and founder of People Against Violent Extremism (as seen here last week in Seat of the Week); Tammy Solonec in Swan, an indigenous lawyer; and Bill Leadbetter in Hasluck, executive director of an obstetric practice and occasional history academic. Aly and Solonec both have a past with the Greens, Aly having been endorsed as a candidate for the 2007 federal election before withdrawing from the race, and Solonec having held an unwinnable spot on an upper house ticket at the 2013 state election.

• The New South Wales Liberals are preparing to determine their Parramatta preselection through a trial plebiscite of local party members of more than two years’ standing. A push to make such ballots the norm was rejected at the party’s state conference in October, to the chagrin of the religious Right faction in particular, but a compromise deal backed by Mike Baird has allowed for trials to be held in a small number of federal and state electorates over the coming years. Kylie Adoranti of the Parramatta Advertiser reports 278 local members are eligible to participate, together with the members of the state executive and further representatives of the state council and the Prime Minister, collectively accounting for 28 votes. Nominees include current Parramatta councillor Jean Pierre Abood; former Parramatta councillor Andrew Bide; Charles Camenzuli, a structural engineer and building consultant who was the party’s candidate in 2010, and also sought preselection unsuccessfully in 2013; and Felicity Finlay, who also contested preselection in 2013, and appears to be a school teacher.

• Labor’s national executive has taken over the preselection process in the New South Wales seats of Barton and Hunter, initiating a process that will be resolved on Friday. The beneficiary in Barton will be the state’s outgoing Deputy Opposition Leader, Linda Burney. National executive will also determine her successor in the state seat of Canterbury, where a by-election now looms. In Hunter, Joel Fitzgibbon is to be confirmed as candidate for a seat that effectively merges his existing seat of Hunter with Charlton, which has been decommissioned in the redistribution. The intervention enforces a deal in which Hunter remains secure for the Right, who have been frozen out in Barton by the endorsement of the Left-aligned Burney.

• Labor in New South Wales also has normal preselection processes in train for ten other seats, including two in the Hunter region: Shortland, where Jill Hall is retiring, and Paterson, which the redistribution has transformed from Liberal to marginal Labor. Shortland looks set to be the new home for Pat Conroy, whose existing seat of Charlton has, as noted above, been rolled together with Joel Fitzgibbon’s seat of Hunter. Conroy says he insisted on facing a rank-and-file ballot. Nominees in Paterson include Meryl Swanson, a local radio presenter, and Robert Roseworne, decribed by the ABC as a “Port Stephens community campaigner”. Both preselections are scheduled to be resolved the weekend after next.

• Nationals MP John Cobb has announced he will not contest the next election, having been member for Parkes from 2001 to 2007, and Calare henceforth. The front-runner to succeed him as Nationals candidate in Calare appears to be Andrew Gee, member for the state seat of Orange, although media reports suggest opponents may include Wellington councillor Alison Conn, Bathurst businessman Sam Farraway, Orange councillor Scott Munro, Bathurst mayor Gary Rush, Lithgow councillor Peter Pilbeam and Bathurst region farmer Paul Blanch, who was the Liberal candidate in 2004.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,734 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.3-48.7 to Coalition”

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  1. Tricot,

    There is no entitlement in politics.

    Just performance.

    Clearly, the hard heads in the Party don’t believe that McGowan can win.

  2. JW

    [There is a contradiciton because you said quite clearly that running an open ticket could not be a deal, when plainly it can. Your statement was incorrect, as Pegasus’ post made clear, and you should just admit that.]
    You really do read what you want into my post.

    A branch can have a robust discussion about open tickets versus preferencing Labor at any time, totally independent of any *rumours* about supposed deals.

    For my branch the decision is generally determined by the candidates being run in the electorates for which we campaign.

    z
    [And if Head Office tells the local branch it is strategic to direct preferences, the local branch is very, very extremely likely to vote exactly the way HO wants them to.]

    Always good to see you think you know how every Greens branch in the entire country thinks and claim with such certainty how every individual Greens members thinks.

    But then the notion of grassroots democracy is alien to some.

    In my branch the individuals hold diverse opinions on a range of issues and are very independent in their thinking. We do not need ‘orders’ from HQ to tell us how to vote or think.

  3. Zoomster @ 2476: Your union organiser has his or her facts wrong on the Senate electoral reform. S/he says “The Greens have negotiated the Senate voting changes with timing that allows Turnbull to call a DD election with the new voting laws in place. If they moved the date of implementation by just one day, the new voting laws would come in, but would not apply for a DD.”

    In fact, the Greens have circulated an amendment which would provide as follows: “The amendment of the Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918 made by this Part do not apply in relation to any election whose polling day is before 1 July 2016.”

    That date would have to be shifted to 17 July 2016 to make a DD election under the new laws impossible.

    If the ALP and the Greens want to stop a double dissolution, an easy way of doing that would be for them to prolong Senate discussion of the supply bills until after 11 May.

  4. It’s impractical to report every detail. Someone must somehow pick what is included and what isn’t. The method is usually involves calculating relevance.

    Conversely, this means that people will assume that a detail included in a story is of some relevance.

    Hence journalists should be careful that their calculation of relevance carries with it a reasonable amount of confidence.

  5. [In fact, the Greens have circulated an amendment which would provide as follows: “The amendment of the Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918 made by this Part do not apply in relation to any election whose polling day is before 1 July 2016.”]

    Which serves no other purpose than to ensure that any Senators elected following a DD, including a slew of Greens no doubt, would have almost a full 3 year term instead of less than 2 – just in case the Government went for a shorter campaign period.

    There is no other benefit flowing from that provision.

  6. The flip side is people have limited time, and so are unlikely to spend it trying to reprocesses something they think has already been calculated.

  7. Pegasus

    [You really do read what you want into my .
    post.

    A branch can have a robust discussion about open tickets versus preferencing Labor at any time, totally independent of any *rumours* about supposed deals.]

    No, you have missed my point.

    Guytaur was arguing that if the Greens had an arrangement with the LNP to have an open ticket in certain lower house seats in return for receiving preferences in other seats that this would not constitute a deal.

    Part of Guytaur’s reasoning (and I use the term loosely) was that the Greens have an open ticket by default so the Greens would really be offering nothing in such a deal.

    This argument only holds if the Greens always have an open ticket in all seats. Your post made it clear that this is not the case thus blowing a hole in Guytaur’s argument.

  8. Pegasus,

    A simple question: If the Greens made an arrangement with the LNP to have an open ticket in certain lower house seats in return for receiving preferences in other seats would this constitute a deal?

  9. How many Shanahans does Rupert employ to write for his Oz?

    Dennis mostly, Angela sometimes and now Rodger. Not unsurprisingly they all say much the same thing.
    [
    Don’t just believe ‘aid workers’
    RODGER SHANAHAN
    Those returning from ‘humanitarian’ endeavours should be able to prove their bona fides.]

  10. JW

    You are the one arguing a deal between the LNP and Greens not me. You are asserting its a deal not me.

    So wrong. However in case you mistyped there is no deal because the Greens are not directing voters to vote in any way they are leaving it up to the voters.

  11. [Don’t just believe ‘aid workers’
    RODGER SHANAHAN
    Those returning from ‘humanitarian’ endeavours should be able to prove their bona fides.]

    First applied to Save the Children Fund workers on Nauru who claimed to be helping traumatised asylum seekers. Seriously, how could anyone be traumatised living on an island paradise with everything supplied, even a comprehensive security detail?

  12. I am still waiting for a response for my question:

    Is Labor and the Liberals considering, having discussions or have already finalised discussions to preference each other ahead of the Greens in Melbourne?

    Or, in the absence of any discussion with the Liberals will Labor preference the Liberals ahead of the Greens in Melbourne?

    If either, would it constitute a ‘deal’to ensure the continuing survival or status quo of the political duopoly in maintaining their power?

  13. The Greens will, of course make arrangementswith other players that serve their purpose, like other parties. We could call them ‘deals’ if we like. When it comes to the Liberals, they might want to remember the old saying: “If you sup with the devil, bring a long spoon”.

  14. http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/mar/13/labor-party-stephen-smith-makes-pitch-for-west-australian-leadership
    [The former federal minister Stephen Smith has made a pitch for the leadership of the West Australian Labor party, saying an ALP win at the next state election is essential for WA’s economic future.
    ::::
    Labor’s federal opposition leader, Bill Shorten, said: “I’m not inclined to get involved in this matter. I do expect Western Australian State Labor to sort this matter out very quickly.”]

  15. guytaur@2459

    JW

    The default policy is open ticket. To direct preferences is where a deal is made not the reverse you are trying to paint it.

    Either the four planks theory is correct, or you are being devious. Which is it?

    Two legs bad, four legs good?

  16. TPOF @ 2506: Correct. The fault in the “union organiser” argument was his/her proposition that the date specified by the Greens would only have to be changed by one day to rule out a double dissolution election under the new rules.

  17. Steve777
    [The Greens will, of course make arrangementswith other players that serve their purpose, like other parties.]
    Who has said otherwise. I certainly haven’t.

  18. Don

    [Either the four planks theory is correct, or you are being devious. Which is it?]

    I think Guytaur is going for a personal best of 6 planks 🙂

  19. TPOF

    [Seriously, how could anyone be traumatised living on an island paradise with everything supplied, even a comprehensive security detail?]

    Surely you jest!

  20. JW

    [ A wise decision 😀 ]

    A wise man would not rely on normal logic when arguing with guytaur. He uses ‘quantum logic’ – i.e. where the conclusion has no discernible relationship with the premise 🙂

  21. steve777
    [When it comes to the Liberals, they might want to remember the old saying: “If you sup with the devil, bring a long spoon”.]
    Does that apply equally to the ALP? If not, why not?

  22. 2506

    If the election is called for July but only 12 senators nominate (extremely unlikely but technically possible) in one or more states, then those states almost certainly have shorter terms for Senators because they are elected automatically on nomination day (which has to be before the 2nd of July).

  23. If an Open Ticket does NOT preference a particular party, then by reason of deduction it then benefits other parties.

  24. [Is Labor and the Liberals considering, having discussions or have already finalised discussions to preference each other ahead of the Greens in Melbourne?]

    Is there any evidence at all for this or are you just speculating?

    [Or, in the absence of any discussion with the Liberals will Labor preference the Liberals ahead of the Greens in Melbourne? If either, would it constitute a ‘deal’to ensure the continuing survival or status quo of the political duopoly in maintaining their power?]

    A “deal” would require discussion, would it not? Two parties independently coming to the same conclusion is not a “deal”, just as if the Greens independently deciding not to preference is not a “deal”.

    How would you prove that a “deal” is for the purposes of “ensur[ing] the continuing survival or status quo of the political duopoly in maintaining their power”?

  25. Don

    Nationally the tickets can be open. Some individual seats by local branch members which DI Natalie has indicated he has not heard about could have been voted to direct preferences in a deal with another party.

    Its what has happened in the past with Greens giving preferences to Labor in some cases.

    However one or two marginal seats in a national election does not add up to making deals to have open tickets everywhere else. Its the default Green position. The deal is when they actually direct preferences. I would have thought this was fairly clear.

    Like it should be the default position for the ALP to put Greens above any right wing party and vice versa.

    Does not always happen that way. The point is however open ticket is just that. It means no deals.

  26. MTBW@2527

    TPOF

    Seriously, how could anyone be traumatised living on an island paradise with everything supplied, even a comprehensive security detail?


    Surely you jest!

    The problem is that TPOF does not understand how to do irony. I have been caught out before, also.

    I think it is trying to be funny, and the post is an attempt at irony.

    The problem is that TPOF has no clue how to do it properly.

    It should sit at the feet of the master, Bushfire Bill, and learn how to do a superb post with panache, humour, and total command of the english language.

    And stir the pot into the bargain. BB’s posts on the airplane disappearance were masterpieces of their kind.

  27. [The deal is when they actually direct preferences. I would have thought this was fairly clear.]

    The deal is when they make deals.

  28. “We will make a stand on marriage equality,…” asserted Mr Turnbull before going on to explain what this means. It means delaying marriage equality for as long as possible against the wishes of the vast majority of Australian voters. A $160,000,000 plebiscite will assist in the delay, especially since Mr Turnbull has been careful not to actually set a date. Naturally, our stand on marriage equality means that Liberal and National MPs will not be bound by the plebiscite. There is not timetable for any enabling legislation, except that it will happen after the next election. Naturally, our stand includes hiding the wording of the plebiscite which will be designed to confuse voters. Further, we can look forward to vigorous gay bashing during the plebiscite campaigning. This will be possible because the Greens are handing the Liberals control of the Senate following the next election, for which people like Bernardi and Christensen are profoundly grateful. Mr Turnbull also mentioned in this context that since it was obvious that the Safe Schools program was, like marriage equality, a civilization-subverting bestiality-inducing vehicle for grooming kids, the Safe Schools program would after a decent review, be defunded.

    Mr Turnbull acknowledged the support of the Greens who, inspired by Mr Anthony Green’s view that the new Senate voting reforms would make it easier for the Liberals to win the third seat in every state.

    Mr Turnbull also explained what he meant by ‘tackling climate change’. “This means that we are pretending to tackle climate change because most Australian voters want us to do something, anything, but we are not really tackling it because most of the members of the two Coalition party rooms think that climate science is crap, is a UN plot to capture the world.

    Again, Mr Turnbull thanked the Greens for their support for the Coalition’s approach to tackling climate change. ‘The new Senate rules should be very useful for tackling climate change’, opined Mr Turnbull.

    Turning to protecting the values of multicultural Australia Mr Turnbull noted most of the Party Room are deeply opposed to multicultural Australia, regarding it as a rampant left wing ideological Trojan Horse for destroying traditional links to the British empire, good Christian marriages between a man and a wife, and white-anting judao-christian values. However, noting that quite a few voters in Australia have deep cultural roots in the non Anglosphere, Mr Turnbull stated that it was crucial to pretend that the Liberal and National Parties supported multiculturalism. Mr Turnbull noted that talking positively about multiculturalism while ignoring it completely in reality will be made easier when the new Senate voting rules, agreed with the Greens, enable the Liberals to control the Senate.

    Mr Turnbull concluded by stating, ‘It is good to see that Mr di Natale is so committed to expediting excellence in government.’

  29. Player One @ 2528,

    A wise man would not rely on normal logic when arguing with guytaur. He uses ‘quantum logic’ – i.e. where the conclusion has no discernible relationship with the premise 🙂

    Eg, when it comes to Anatomy and Physiology all of the body that you can see with your eyes is actually ‘within’ the body. 🙂

  30. [Surely you jest!]

    Indeed I do. I put a great deal of trust in PBers when they recognise sarcasm when I peddle it. I have not always been right, though. I thought this government’s concept of demonise first, consider possible innocence later and only under extreme public pressure might apply equally to the maligned aid workers.

  31. mimhoff

    😆

    Thats what directing preferences is all about. No deal no direction. Thus open ticket. It means precisely that the party is not directing the voters on how to vote and so therefore have no way to make a deal on how to direct voters.

  32. mimhoff,

    Obviously my post was too subtle…. 😉

    [Two parties independently coming to the same conclusion is not a “deal”, just as if the Greens independently deciding not to preference is not a “deal”.]
    Yet so many are arguing the complete opposite in order to run an anti-Greens meme 😉

  33. Catmomma

    Yes Skin until it is not part of your body is part of your body. Try living without it. If skin was not part of your body you would not need surgery to remove skin cancer.

    Is that crystal clear for you?

  34. don at 2535

    I’d like to think I do know how to do irony. And I thought the personal security detail was a giveaway – unless I accidentally posted on Catalepsy (or whatever it’s called) instead of PB.

    But if it be the view of PB that I was not sufficiently American in my humour, I will desist and revert to dry and verbose.

  35. From July 2014 to February 2016 the ALP voted with the Liberals in 38% of Senate divisions, while the Greens voted with the Liberals in 6% of Senate divisions.

    The Greens criticise the substance of some of the things Labor has chosen to do with the Liberals. It isn’t the fact of voting with the Libs that is a problem – it is the content of what Labor has done with the Liberals that is often problematic. The CONTENT.

    On Senate voting reform, the Libs are doing something that the giants of psephology have long been calling for. The policy is worthwhile. The content is good and deserves support.

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