The Coalition’s downward odyssey in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate enters its sixth week, although the movement on voting intention is slight this time, since all three pollsters this week (Newspoll, Roy Morgan and Essential) essentially repeated the results of their previous polls. Nonetheless, the 0.2% shift has been enough to bag Labor gains on the seat projection in New South Wales and Queensland. There is even more encouragement for Labor from the leadership ratings, on which Malcolm Turnbull is tanking rapidly, albeit that his head remains above the waterline in positive net approval. Bill Shorten’s trendlines are pointing northward, although he still has a very long way to go. Kevin Bonham had the following to say about the Newspoll leadership ratings, a day before they were corroborated by Essential Research:
Turnbull is still far more popular than Bill Shorten, but he’s dropped 35 points in the four polls taken since last November. This loss of 35 points in three and a half months is exceeded only by Paul Keating in 1993 (43 points in just over three months), John Howard in 1996 (36 points in six weeks) and Howard again in 2001 (38 points in six weeks). The 1996 Howard example comes with a big asterisk too, because Howard was falling from the career-high +53 netsat he had jumped 24 points to reach in the immediate aftermath of the Port Arthur massacre. It is not at all normal then for a PM to lose this much popularity this fast, but then again it is not that normal for them to have it in the first place.
Electoral matters:
• Phillip Coorey of the Financial Review sees the two possibilities as the much-touted July 2 double dissolution, or a normal election in mid-August, either of which would leave time for a same-sex marriage plebiscite to be held by the end of the year. He also relates that the government is “exploring the logistics” of bringing down the budget on May 3, rather than the scheduled date of May 10, which is one day before the deadline for calling a double dissolution expires. Among other things, this would allow the government time to attempt to get its legislation reinstating the powers of the Australian Building and Construction Commission through the Senate. Its reject would confirm its currently contestable status as a double dissolution trigger, which the Greens sought to retain by having the government agree not to reintroduce it during the current session as part of its deal to legislate for Senate electoral reform.
• Amid talk of a possible early state election, Queenslanders go to the polls next Saturday to vote on a referendum proposal that would render such a thing impossible, by introducing fixed four-year terms with elections set for the last week in October. The referendum has been timed to coincide with local government elections, which also means that the big partisan prize of the Brisbane lord mayoralty is up for grabs. According to a Galaxy poll of 540 voters conducted for the Nine Network, Liberal National Party incumbent Graham Quirk holds a 53-47 two-party lead over Labor’s Tim Harding. This compares with his winning margin of 68.3-31.7 at the 2012 election, which was held a few weeks after Anna Bligh’s government had been decimated at the polls. The Galaxy poll also found Brisbane voters favouring the referendum proposal by 48% to 35%, but Steven Wardill of the Courier-Mail, offers that “regional Queenslanders are expected to be much more sceptical towards the proposal”.
Preselection matters:
• The Liberal preselection to anoint a successor to Victorian Senator Michael Ronaldson has produced a surprise winner in James Paterson, the 28-year-old deputy executive director of the Institute of Public Affairs. Paterson will shortly fill the casual vacancy to be created by Ronaldson’s imminent retirement, and will head the party’s ticket in the event of a normal half-Senate election. It had been generally expected that the position would go to Jane Hume, a superannuation policy adviser who had the influential backing of Michael Kroger, president of the party’s state branch. Hume had earlier won preselection for the number three position on a Coalition ticket that allocates second place to the Nationals. Also in the race was Amanda Millar, who filled a casual vacancy for Northern Victoria region in the state upper house in August 2013 but failed to win re-election in November 2014; and Karina Okotel, a legal aid lawyer.
• Labor’s preselection in Fremantle will be conducted over two days on Sunday, when a ballot of local members determining 25% of the total result will be held, and Monday, when the rest is to be determined at a meeting of state executive. The two nominees are Josh Wilson, chief-of-staff to outgoing member Melissa Parke and the local deputy mayor, and Chris Brown, a Maritime Union of Australia organiser and former wharfie. Observers say that Wilson will dominate the local party ballot, but factional arrangements are likely to tip the balance in Brown’s favour at state executive. The winner will face recently preselected Greens candidate Kate Davis, solicitor for tenants’ rights organisation Tenancy WA.
• Tim Hammond has been preselected without opposition to succeed Alannah MacTiernan as Labor’s candidate in Perth. Hammond is a barrister specialising in representing asbestos disease victims, one of the party’s national vice-presidents, and a member of the Right. It appears that the Brand preselection will go the same way, with no other contenders standing in the way of Madeleine King, chief operating officer of the international policy think tank Perth USAsia Centre. Other confirmed Labor candidates in winnable seats are Matt Keogh in Burt, a commercial lawyer and president of the WA Law Society, who ran unsuccessfully at the Canning by-election in September; Anne Azza Aly in Cowan, a counter-terrorism expert at Curtin University and founder of People Against Violent Extremism (as seen here last week in Seat of the Week); Tammy Solonec in Swan, an indigenous lawyer; and Bill Leadbetter in Hasluck, executive director of an obstetric practice and occasional history academic. Aly and Solonec both have a past with the Greens, Aly having been endorsed as a candidate for the 2007 federal election before withdrawing from the race, and Solonec having held an unwinnable spot on an upper house ticket at the 2013 state election.
• The New South Wales Liberals are preparing to determine their Parramatta preselection through a trial plebiscite of local party members of more than two years’ standing. A push to make such ballots the norm was rejected at the party’s state conference in October, to the chagrin of the religious Right faction in particular, but a compromise deal backed by Mike Baird has allowed for trials to be held in a small number of federal and state electorates over the coming years. Kylie Adoranti of the Parramatta Advertiser reports 278 local members are eligible to participate, together with the members of the state executive and further representatives of the state council and the Prime Minister, collectively accounting for 28 votes. Nominees include current Parramatta councillor Jean Pierre Abood; former Parramatta councillor Andrew Bide; Charles Camenzuli, a structural engineer and building consultant who was the party’s candidate in 2010, and also sought preselection unsuccessfully in 2013; and Felicity Finlay, who also contested preselection in 2013, and appears to be a school teacher.
• Labor’s national executive has taken over the preselection process in the New South Wales seats of Barton and Hunter, initiating a process that will be resolved on Friday. The beneficiary in Barton will be the state’s outgoing Deputy Opposition Leader, Linda Burney. National executive will also determine her successor in the state seat of Canterbury, where a by-election now looms. In Hunter, Joel Fitzgibbon is to be confirmed as candidate for a seat that effectively merges his existing seat of Hunter with Charlton, which has been decommissioned in the redistribution. The intervention enforces a deal in which Hunter remains secure for the Right, who have been frozen out in Barton by the endorsement of the Left-aligned Burney.
• Labor in New South Wales also has normal preselection processes in train for ten other seats, including two in the Hunter region: Shortland, where Jill Hall is retiring, and Paterson, which the redistribution has transformed from Liberal to marginal Labor. Shortland looks set to be the new home for Pat Conroy, whose existing seat of Charlton has, as noted above, been rolled together with Joel Fitzgibbon’s seat of Hunter. Conroy says he insisted on facing a rank-and-file ballot. Nominees in Paterson include Meryl Swanson, a local radio presenter, and Robert Roseworne, decribed by the ABC as a “Port Stephens community campaigner”. Both preselections are scheduled to be resolved the weekend after next.
• Nationals MP John Cobb has announced he will not contest the next election, having been member for Parkes from 2001 to 2007, and Calare henceforth. The front-runner to succeed him as Nationals candidate in Calare appears to be Andrew Gee, member for the state seat of Orange, although media reports suggest opponents may include Wellington councillor Alison Conn, Bathurst businessman Sam Farraway, Orange councillor Scott Munro, Bathurst mayor Gary Rush, Lithgow councillor Peter Pilbeam and Bathurst region farmer Paul Blanch, who was the Liberal candidate in 2004.
know = no of course.
[First applied to Save the Children Fund workers on Nauru who claimed to be helping traumatised asylum seekers. Seriously, how could anyone be traumatised living on an island paradise with everything supplied, even a comprehensive security detail?]
Spoken by a person who knows jack s**t about the trauma of being forced out of your country and the struggle to seek asylum.
Honestly, although I don’t think McGowan is all that crash hot, his approval ratings are pretty good for an opposition leader (and are better than Barnett’s), and I doubt Smith is all that much of an improvement (I don’t see either as particularly charismatic). This is much different to Hayden/Hawke because Hawke was much more charismatic than Hayden.
Additionally, I agree regarding the fact that changing leaders before an election is different in opposition than it is in government, because it’s considered that they’re not “elected” when they’re in opposition.
TPOF
I see the problem with your sarcasm.
[even a comprehensive security detail?]
Your intent of a personal security detail got lost. Maybe to really punch the sarcasm you should have said celebrity like security detail and added a wink 🙂
[The ‘open ticket’, as I have seen it, is in fact a double sided ticket with one side preferencing ALP and the other preferencing LNP.
So rather than a refusal to recommend how anyone votes, it gives two competing recommendations.
Only a Green would see the logic of this.]
No, that’s a split ticket.
An open ticket is when the HTV has #1 against the Greens candidate with instructions to number the rest of the boxes as the voter wants.
TPOF
I recommend an emoticon to drive home the point, although the sarcasm one isn’t very obvious – :/
Maybe a sarcastic font could be included in the upgrade.
Pegasus@2605
OK, I don’t know all the nuances of Greens dithering and indecision.
The ALP is capable of deciding on what it sees as the lesser of the evils and recommend to its supporters accordingly. This almost invariably favours the Greens over the LNP.
Greens, it would appear, are incapable of such simple decisions. This indicative of an inability to play any part in governing.
On another subject altogether … I only became aware of this recently:
[ http://www.afr.com/news/economy/abs-slammed-for-breach-of-trust-over-intrusive-2016-census-data-matching-plan-20160309-gnebci ]
Quick summary: the government is going to retain the names and addresses of all participants in this year’s census – i.e. the data will no longer only be retained ‘anonymously’ as it is now. Of course, they claim it will remain confidential … but will it?
Even if it does remain confidential, it would be almost irresistible to not use this data for all sorts of purposes – e.g. it would allow (for instance) profiling of terrorism suspects and cross-correlation with taxation, centrelink and medicare data to detect fraud. Of course, all those uses would require further legislation – but if the current government win a DD election and end up with control of both houses, there would be no impediment to this.
Of course, you could argue any or all of these additional uses would be a good thing – but would you really trust the current government to limit it’s use of such a massive treasure trove of correlated data only to uses in your best interests, and not in theirs? Really?
There is also the additional issue that the ABS has been starved of finds recently, to the point where the statistics they generate have become increasingly unreliable (e.g. the job statistics are now regarded as a bit of a joke). Yes, they have been allocated additional funds to run the census this year, but what about next year? Who is to say that to save money in future their data processing won’t end up being ‘outsourced’ – most likely to somewhere overseas. For instance, the ATO has recently proposed outsourcing their data processing to Accenture in the Philippines (although I believe this is currently on hold, partly due to the outcry it caused). What if they did the same with the census data? One successful hack and every scammer in the world could end up being able to purchase any or all all of your personal and financial details.
What do people think? Were you aware of this? Am I the only one who missed this announcement made during the Christmas break?
Steve777,
It’s all sweet. I knew u weren’t having a ‘go’ @ me 🙂
I always read your posts with interest as you are one of the civil posters.
I take it if this change occurs in WA, a sitting Labor MP would stand aside for ‘personal reasons’ or ‘to spend more time with the family’, in order to accommodate Smith.
Whatever happens, I hope it is bloodless with no residual ill-feeling.
We are talking about the Labor Party, it is to be understood.
Player One@2609
Well it certainly has been reported and discussed on the ABC. For example http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/content/2016/s4422415.htm
Maybe you should seek therapy for your phobia and become a listener?
Latest update for Antony Green’s election pendulum:
http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2016/03/2016-federal-election-pendulum-update.html
Could I remind everyone that Cathy McGowan is a female not a male.
‘Malcolm Turnbull is to Australia what Campbell Newman was to Queensland.’
Glenn Lazarus
😀
[ Well it certainly has been reported and discussed on the ABC. For example http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/content/2016/s4422415.htm ]
On March 10th? When it was announced before Christmas? Seems I’m not the only one who missed it then.
[ Maybe you should seek therapy for your phobia and become a listener? ]
Maybe you should stop saying that people you disagree with need ‘therapy’. You might even end up with some friends.
I watched insiders, and Michael Kroger is reputed to be having talks with the greens.
Just sayin’…
Mark Kenny was very good, spoke well and to the point, but he doesn’t look well. Any thinner and he’d be close to gaunt.
gt
[abcnewsPerth: #BREAKING: Former federal MP Stephen Smith confirms publicly he will challenge for WA Labor leadership if majority of party back him]
Didn’t 20 or so commenters report this about 7 hours ago?
MTBW@2614
Who thought otherwise?
[Could I remind everyone that Cathy McGowan is a female not a male.]
Mark McGowan however is a male.
Some posters earlier were calling her “him”.
MTBW
[Could I remind everyone that Cathy McGowan is a female not a male.
]
Which would be relevant, if posters here weren’t talking about Mark McGowan, who is a male.
Player One@2616
Most people don’t exhibit phobias like you do in relation to the ABC.
bemused
Though you are not on your own, showing your ignorance about a fundamental electoral fact as the difference between a split ticket and an open ticket makes you look rather……. 😉
MTBW@2621
Name any of them.
Pegasus@2624
I always take such remarks from Greens as a compliment. 😉
At least one good thing has come out of talk of Liberal-Green preference deals is that at least it puts to bed the notion that the Greens are not like those dreaded major parties they like to criticise for acting out of political opportunism rather than principle.
bemused
It was in conversations earlier today.
MTBW@2628
I think you are confusing Cathy McGowan, member for Indi with Mark McGowan leader of the opposition in WA.
DN
[What a silly pedantic, argument.]
Cancer or irony? Or both?
[Peter van Onselen @vanOnselenP 1h1 hour ago
The main agitator for Stephen Smith says the current leader isn’t “flamboyant” enough. So he’s agitating for Stephen “flamboyant” Smith?!]
Smith was a fantastic Defence Minister, and exudes a nice calm demeanour, but no, definitely not flamboyant. That in my view is a good thing.
bemused
If so my apologies!
befuddled
[ Most people don’t exhibit phobias like you do in relation to the ABC. ]
You are an offensive twat. In any case, what happened to you ‘ignoring’ my posts? The place became quite civilized for a while.
Here is the ABS announcement on the 2016 Census which is causing controversy.
http://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/D3310114.nsf/home/Retention+of+names+and+addresses+collected
It discusses privacy issues.
MTBW@2632
I don’t think Cathy McGowan has been mentioned at all today.
ABS. Privacy Impact Assessment: Proposal to Retain Name and Address Information from Responses to the 2016 Census of Population and Housing. December 2015: http://tinyurl.com/gny4b3j
18 December 2015: http://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/D3310114.nsf/home/Retention+of+names+and+addresses+collected
[This decision has been informed by public submissions, public testing and the conduct of a Privacy Impact Assessment.]
Dickhead One@2633
Delighted to have offended you. 😆
I do ignore most of your posts.
Now now, Player One.
don
[Mark Kenny was very good, spoke well and to the point, but he doesn’t look well. ]
I agree. I saw an ‘informal’ shot of him on the web last week, and thought he had suddenly aged.
Miss Prissy,
What next? Advice to PB posters: Respect your elders and always say, ‘Please’ and ‘Thank you’ !?!
*sarcasm alert!*
bemused
[I always take such remarks from Greens as a compliment. ;)]
Wouldn’t I be rich if I took all such remarks made over 8 years directed at me from the Laborites’ as compliments 😀
lizzie@2639
I cannot look at Mark Kenny, or read any of his work, without smiling, since Bob Ellis referred to him as a ‘small but perfectly formed man’. 😐
William
[ Now now, Player One. ]
You will note that (as usual) the most recent exchange was initiated by bemused tossing in gratuitous insults. It amazes me that you allow him to continue to post on this site. I will resume ignoring him, but it does neither of you any credit whatsoever.
Rubio thrashes Trump. Gets 10 delegates in possibly the least representative primary in the US.
http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/mar/13/marco-rubio-trounces-donald-trump-in-washington-dc-presidential-primary
[Wouldn’t I be rich if I took all such remarks made over 8 years directed at me from the Laborites’ as compliments..]
No, you wouldn’t be. There is no relationship between compliments and wealth.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-03-13/labor-greens-want-senate-inquiry-tasmania-energy-crisis/7243038
[Tasmania is in the midst of its most serious energy crisis on record, and in a search for answers the federal Greens have struck a deal with Labor for a Senate inquiry.
Hearings could begin within weeks and would be held in Tasmania.]
z
🙂 obviously omitted typing If I had a dollar for……
I see that Bandt, having assisted in the Liberals gaining control of the Senate, is now raging against the Anti-Vaxxers.
Cos Wren.
P
[Tasmania is in the midst of its most serious energy crisis on record, and in a search for answers the federal Greens have struck a deal with Labor for a Senate inquiry.]
Oh dog, how low has Labor sunk now.
@2634 – I saw Mark Kenny at a cinema a few weeks ago and he definitely looks older than the last time I saw him.