Newspoll: 50-50; Morgan: 53-47 to Coalition

Little change on a fortnight ago for both Newspoll, which repeats its tied result, and Roy Morgan, which finds Labor holding on to recent gains but advancing no further.

UPDATE: Contrary to what it says below, James J in comments relates that there is a Newspoll out, and that it’s unchanged on a fortnight ago: a tie on two-party preferred, with primary votes of Coalition 43%, Labor 35% and Greens 12%. Also unchanged is Malcolm Turnbull’s 55-21 lead as preferred prime minister, but he’s down four on approval to 44% and up three on disapproval to 41%, while Bill Shorten is up two to 30% and down two to 55%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1815. Full tables from The Australian.

There will apparently be no Newspoll this week, so Roy Morgan gets the guernsey instead. Their latest face-to-face plus SMS poll, conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 3011, has the Coalition lead at 53-47 on both the previous election and respondent-allocated measures of two-party preferred. This is half a point better for the Coalition than the previous two results, but still two points lower than in any of their earlier polls on Malcolm Turnbull’s watch. The primary vote figures are in interesting study in the effects of survey design, with the “others” vote spiking three points to 13%, its highest level this term. This is very likely influenced by the fact that the Nick Xenophon Team is now being included as an option in the questionnaire nationally, and not just in South Australia as before. The Coalition is down half a point to 43%, Labor is steady on 29.5%, and the Greens are down two to 13%.

UPDATE 2 (Essential Research): Essential Research is unchanged at 50-50, with primary votes of 43% for the Coalition (steady), 37% for Labor (down one) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Also featured are the monthly leadership ratings, which have Malcolm Turnbull down six on approval to 45% and up eight no disapproval to 35%, Bill Shorten steady on 27% and down one on disapproval to 47%, and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister narrowing from 52-15 to 48-19. Further questions find 41% approval for negative gearing, and 37% disapproval; 35% approving of Labor’s policy to limit it to newly built homes, and 39% disapproving; and 32% saying they would prefer house prices go up, with 34% wanting them to come down.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,721 comments on “Newspoll: 50-50; Morgan: 53-47 to Coalition”

Comments Page 34 of 35
1 … 33 34 35

  1. Sohar

    [ Shock horror – Corbyn upsets Blairites by advocating the legalisation of prostitution. What sort of planet is England (not necessarily the UK)? ]

    If they made it legal then most of the members of the British parliament would suddenly find themselves impotent.

  2. I can’t help thinking mikehilliard posted 1617 and then logged off… and is now grumpy at PB because he thinks he’s been called a troll.

    Wars have been caused by less 🙂

  8. Spot on!

    [Dave Donovan
    Dave Donovan – ‏@davrosz

    I can’t understand why people think Turnbull is charming and clever.He appears to be a bumbling, stumbling, nincompoop. #abc730
    1:45 AM – 9 Mar 2016
    38 RETWEETS33 LIKES]

  9. Raaraa

    He is going to have a presser tomorrow morning. Lateline’s speculation is that he is going to announce that he will be running against Barnaby. Given the high profile that Windsor has taken in recent times – including the Lateline piece – that would be pretty much odds-on.

  11. Been off for a day on other matters, but can I just say that I cannot see how Turnbull can possibly hope to convince the Australian people that moving the Budget and then going for a DD on Unions can possibly be anything other than a cheap trick for his benefit only.

    It starts with the premiss that whatever is good for the Liberal Party is good for Australia (therefore why NOT have a DD?). It asks the punters to just accept that the previous 2 years were a complete waste of time, and that the nation can get by with electing a government for 3 years that only starts even attempting to govern after the first 2.

    And then it goes downhill after that.

    (HINT: Policies would help, not TV commercials about a non-existent boom in innovation)

  12. TPOF@1659

    Raaraa

    He is going to have a presser tomorrow morning. Lateline’s speculation is that he is going to announce that he will be running against Barnaby. Given the high profile that Windsor has taken in recent times – including the Lateline piece – that would be pretty much odds-on.

    Ah thanks. I only left Lateline in the background and only noticed that last bit. Didn’t know it was a sure thing, so I don’t want to jump the gun.

  13. victoria@1658

    Spot on!

    Dave Donovan
    Dave Donovan – ‏@davrosz

    I can’t understand why people think Turnbull is charming and clever.He appears to be a bumbling, stumbling, nincompoop. #abc730
    1:45 AM – 9 Mar 2016
    38 RETWEETS33 LIKES

    Oh how I wish Mod Lib was here to give us her defence of her beloved Malcolm. 👿

  14. Seems the Greens are so fond of cutting and pasting ALP bashing drivel here everyday I think we should take a look at the Greens parliamentarians and their contribution to ‘progressive’ politics in this country.

    The following is a quote from Tasmanian Senator, winery owner, former Merrill Lynch and Deutsche Bank executive (a.k.a. Banker) and confessed Liberal voter and John Howard supporter until 2004 Peter Whish-Wilson, talking about penalty rates.

    “But I think we need a bigger discussion nationally about weekends versus weekdays. I think it’s just a white Anglo-Saxon cultural thing that we’ve inherited. Society is different now.

    “A lot of people are happy to work weekends and not work during the week.”

    This prat should be the first Green (aqua/turquoise) who is eliminated from the parliament.
    Only an out of touch yuppie who has worked for some of the most blood sucking of institutions could have this amount of contempt and lack of empathy for working people.

    Why do the Greens hate working people so much?

    #greenshatetheworkingclass

  15. Dutton’s intervention in the economic debate was just plain stupid. Apart from the stupidity of his thesis he has allowed Labor to defend their policy with ridicule and undermined any possibility that some sort of reasoned and measured critique of the policy by anyone including Turnbull and Morrison or anyone else has now been completely undermined.

    Is it possible that this is what he intended?

  17. victoria

    I’m still trying to work out where his reputation for being “silver tongued” comes from. He keeps that light extremely well hidden under a bushel.

  20. Colton

    [ Why do the Greens hate working people so much? ]

    I don’t know that they hate them – they just probably don’t know any.

  22. Colton

    [This prat should be the first Green (aqua/turquoise) who is eliminated from the parliament]
    Cyan is blue green so that is a good word to describe him . Especially keeping in mind that blue-green algae are responsible for poisonous blooms. So best keep their numbers low.

  23. Having ditched its own plans to touch negative gearing, the government has decided to mount a full-blown assault on Labor’s policy throughout the federal election campaign with the claim that it will “cripple” the economy and crash the markets.

    And cabinet sources have confirmed that Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull remains determined to hold a double-dissolution election on July 2 with his prime motivation to wipe out the Senate crossbench.

    Though Mr Turnbull said publicly on Wednesday that his inclination was to keep the budget on May 10 as scheduled, and thus have a full-term, half Senate election in August or beyond, senior sources said an early double dissolution on July 2 was “a real possibility” and if Mr Turnbull could make the date work, he would.

    Read more: http://www.afr.com/news/politics/government-goes-negative-on-negative-gearing-20160308-gne326#ixzz42PEOPEsm
    Follow us: @FinancialReview on Twitter | financialreview on Facebook

  25. Nicholas @ 1669

    Typical Greens response.
    Any thoughts on Whish-Wilsons sucking up to small businesses of which between him and his wife they own/run three?
    Do you or do you not support his comments.
    Are you in favour of penalty rates being reduced?
    Simple question which surely even you with the self described A grade mind could answer.

  26. I would imagine any Green-Liberal preference deal would be of more benefit to the Greens – given Green voters are less likely than Lib voters to just vote 1

  27. [I’m still trying to work out where his reputation for being “silver tongued” comes from. He keeps that light extremely well hidden under a bushel.]

    I agree – he is often tongue tied and sweaty. it must be something to do with being PM – Gillard also went from being one of her party’s best communicators to being woody and uncomfortable.

    Mal’s also got a touch of despair – which I put down to him having had to seel his soul and wear the far right straight jacket to get the job, and now realising he’s probabaly not going to win in such a landslide that he can tell the right to fuck off after the election. and he’s got Barnarby as deputy PM and the abbott faction avowed to take him out. Mal’s eyes look a little dead.

  28. Player One,

    No, they hate them.
    Your right they probably don’t know any working class people but it’s clear they hate them and look down at them.

  29. [FalconWA
    Posted Wednesday, March 9, 2016 at 10:39 pm | PERMALINK
    Dutton’s intervention in the economic debate was just plain stupid. Apart from the stupidity of his thesis he has allowed Labor to defend their policy with ridicule and undermined any possibility that some sort of reasoned and measured critique of the policy by anyone including Turnbull and Morrison or anyone else has now been completely undermined.

    Is it possible that this is what he intended?]

    Dutton’s outburst today just demonstrates that the government comprises a collection of headless chooks running in all directions and saying anything that comes to mind.

    It must be a nightmare for all the public servants tasked with preparing the budget and working on a tax policy.

  31. [I agree – he is often tongue tied and sweaty. it must be something to do with being PM ]

    I don’t think he’s changed at all. Before getting the job he was windy, ponderous and full of great thoughts without any substance behind them. I’ll never forget a QandA where there were pleas for mercy for Chan and Sukumaran. It would have been OK for him just to express his despair at the death sentence, but he then launched into a long and grossly over-moralistic plea to Widodo to show his courage, etc, by sparing the two men. The only good thing is that Widodo would be unlikely to have seen it and, if he did, would have fallen asleep fairly early on.

  32. I meant to add to my 1681 that difference now he is PM is that windy platitudes don’t cut it with even those press gallery hangers-on who are half in love with him. Only Abbott ever got a magic no-examination card. And he squandered it like no PM in history.

  33. Poroti @ 1672

    Hahahaha, so true.
    Aqua/turquoise/cyan whatever.
    They are certainly no longer Green except in name.
    It seems the environment is now just a third rate issue for the inner city sophisticates who support and represent the Greens.
    Helping the Environment requires more than planting a vege garden, driving a prius and undertaking a tree-change lifestyle.
    The ALP have achieved far more than the Greens could ever hope to accomplish for the Environment.

  34. The Greens are more pro-union than Labor is. That’s the stone cold truth.

    Whatever Nicholas #1669 has been smoking it must be pretty powerful stuff

  35. How can the Libs Hope to campaign for 10 weeks given what they have to sell?
    They would be hard pressed to campaign for 5 weeks.
    The CSIRO cut backs and NBN failures play directly against the innovation theme which is nothing more than an ad campaign.
    What will they do with Dutton, Brandis and for that matter Morrison for 10 weeks.
    At least in the election campaign they won’t be running the country so any damage should be minimized.

  36. Bernard Keane in today’s Crikey reckons all this election speculation looks like the govt is panicking and out of control. He also makes a point I’ve previously made about an election based on union corruption.

    [Then there’s the small matter of the trigger for the double dissolution. Whatever the constitutional interpretation around the Senate failing to pass the bill restoring Australia’s very own Stasi, the Building and Construction Commission, the issue itself is likely to be quickly forgotten in an election campaign. Voters are interested in the economy, jobs, healthcare and education and, if there’s a terrorist attack somewhere, maybe national security. Trade union corruption is way down the list of issues that affect votes — and in any event voters tend to see unions and business as equally corrupt anyway. And yet, the Coalition seems convinced that it is onto a genuine winner in launching an election about the ABCC bill and, therefore, Labor’s links to the unions, as if the electorate shared its own pathological loathing of trade unions.

    Given ongoing revelations about appalling and scandalous conduct by the Commonwealth Bank’s insurance arm, the prosecution of ANZ for rate-rigging and who knows what other revelations of corrupt behaviour by businesses that might emerge between now and July 2, a government obsessing about the CFMEU might not strike quite the right note with voters.

    On the other hand, all this has now unofficially launched the 2016 election. From here, everything will be seen through the prism of the election, whether the government wants it or not. And it means if Turnbull decides not to go with the early July double dissolution election, there’ll be a sense of anti-climax and indecision of exactly the kind now plaguing his government — and recall that history-changing failure when Kevin Rudd’s failed to pursue a double dissolution election on the CPRS early in 2010 — which he would have handily won.

    Controlling the election date is supposed to be one of the most powerful weapons of incumbency. But somehow, Malcolm Turnbull is at risk of turning it into a hindrance and a distraction. And the risk isn’t merely political, but to the key economic setpiece of the year.]

  37. To further my point that the Greens have relegated the Environment to a third tier issue I will post the following;

    Two founding fathers of the Greens say the split between the old-school environmentalists and the new generation of ideologically driven urban activists now swelling the parliamentary ranks could destabilise the party and alienate voters.

    The man who gave up his seat in the Tasmanian parliament 29 years ago to launch Bob Brown’s political career, Norm Sanders, said the Greens had “lost the plot” by shifting away from their core business of the environment.

    And Queenslander Drew Hutton, who co-founded the party in 1992 with Senator Brown, hit out at the “ludicrous” decision by the NSW division of the Greens to thumb its nose at federal policy and back an international trade boycott of Israel in the recent state election campaign.

    “I just shake my head in wonder at why a state-based party would go into an election pushing out front of a federal issue that the state party has no reason to be concerned with,” said Mr Hutton, 64. “Why would you be profiling issues above environmental issues at this particular time? . . . I don’t think it helps to alienate significant groups inside the NSW voting public.”

    Mr Sanders, 78, said scathingly that the Greens were now “concerned with everything except the environment”.

    “You hear them going on about the tax system, same-sex marriage, adoption, all these social equity issues, but they don’t talk about the environment much,” he said.

    Gee, this cut and paste thing is so much fun.
    Intellectually lazy and deceptively selective but fun.

  38. To me things are getting stranger and stranger.
    Mark Kenny’s latest column
    coalition-hopes-for-resourcesled-budget-recovery , now, if his article can be believed, because of a recent recovery in resources prices the budget is now looking much better, and so the coalition thinks they are in a position to offer election sweeteners.
    That does not sound like responsible economic management.

  40. [“You hear them going on about the tax system, same-sex marriage, adoption, all these social equity issues, but they don’t talk about the environment much,” he said.]

    That same point has been made here many times.

  41. I take it Campbell Newman has worked out he is basically unemployable to the private sector and thus must revert to the public teat asap.
    What seat would he be considering?

  42. Well,I can’t speak for anyone else (my connection to the Greens hive-mind must be faulty tonight), but I’m strongly against removing or cutting penalty rates and certainly cannot agree with what Wish-Wilson (pretty mild) statements about them. But he is just one Senator, so, eh, its difficult for me to get worked up about it.

    The actual Greens industrial relations policies, while not mentioning penalty rates specifically (apart from a stance against unpaid overtime), seem to basically be on the same page as Labor regarding unions and worker’s rates.

  43. [BB 1661
    It starts with the premiss that whatever is good for the Liberal Party is good for Australia (therefore why NOT have a DD?).]

    The main point about a DD is that it stops us talking about policy… which is something this mob can’t do.

  45. Henry

    I assume Newman would be planning to take Brisbane – Theresa Gambaro has just announced she is quitting. A bit of pressure I suspect for Theresa.

    For yous all down south. Newman makes Abbott look like a scholar and a gentleman.

  46. [Coalition hopes for resources-led budget recovery

    The federal government is cautiously eyeing a windfall gain from soaring iron ore prices in recent days, fuelling hopes of billions of extra dollars flooding into Canberra, but the financial improvement is not being matched by a rise in political certainty.]

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/coalition-hopes-for-resourcesled-budget-recovery-20160309-gnegt7.html#ixzz42PQfmsXN

    If the Government seriously thinks it can build this year’s budget (and the next few years’ budgets, I resume) off the back of a rebounding iron ore price; even when considering how volatile said price was last year, one wonders just how little effort the Government is putting into actually governing.

    Seriously, what (sensible) person would pin their financial standing on a commodity that was practically worthless just a few months ago?

  47. lizzie @1576:

    [I think Tony Windsor is not pleased that Fairfax is pre-empting his decision. But it might be interesting.]

    Attacked from the Left by the Greens candidate, attacked from the middle by Windsor (may he re-enter Parliament!)…all he needs is an attacker from the Right, and he’s officially under siege.

  49. [Coalition hopes for resources-led budget recovery]

    The headline says it all Millennial

    “they hope” that a volatile sector will fix the budget says they have no idea or other plans.

    Why not put it all on black and then let it ride.

  50. [If the Government seriously thinks it can build this year’s budget (and the next few years’ budgets, I resume) off the back of a rebounding iron ore price; even when considering how volatile said price was last year, one wonders just how little effort the Government is putting into actually governing.]

    I think we know the answer to that Millennial. They clearly have no frickin idea. It’s been obvious from day 1 and the change of leadership hasn’t done anything to change this.

Comments Page 34 of 35
1 … 33 34 35

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *