Newspoll: 50-50; Morgan: 53-47 to Coalition

Little change on a fortnight ago for both Newspoll, which repeats its tied result, and Roy Morgan, which finds Labor holding on to recent gains but advancing no further.

UPDATE: Contrary to what it says below, James J in comments relates that there is a Newspoll out, and that it’s unchanged on a fortnight ago: a tie on two-party preferred, with primary votes of Coalition 43%, Labor 35% and Greens 12%. Also unchanged is Malcolm Turnbull’s 55-21 lead as preferred prime minister, but he’s down four on approval to 44% and up three on disapproval to 41%, while Bill Shorten is up two to 30% and down two to 55%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1815. Full tables from The Australian.

There will apparently be no Newspoll this week, so Roy Morgan gets the guernsey instead. Their latest face-to-face plus SMS poll, conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 3011, has the Coalition lead at 53-47 on both the previous election and respondent-allocated measures of two-party preferred. This is half a point better for the Coalition than the previous two results, but still two points lower than in any of their earlier polls on Malcolm Turnbull’s watch. The primary vote figures are in interesting study in the effects of survey design, with the “others” vote spiking three points to 13%, its highest level this term. This is very likely influenced by the fact that the Nick Xenophon Team is now being included as an option in the questionnaire nationally, and not just in South Australia as before. The Coalition is down half a point to 43%, Labor is steady on 29.5%, and the Greens are down two to 13%.

UPDATE 2 (Essential Research): Essential Research is unchanged at 50-50, with primary votes of 43% for the Coalition (steady), 37% for Labor (down one) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Also featured are the monthly leadership ratings, which have Malcolm Turnbull down six on approval to 45% and up eight no disapproval to 35%, Bill Shorten steady on 27% and down one on disapproval to 47%, and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister narrowing from 52-15 to 48-19. Further questions find 41% approval for negative gearing, and 37% disapproval; 35% approving of Labor’s policy to limit it to newly built homes, and 39% disapproving; and 32% saying they would prefer house prices go up, with 34% wanting them to come down.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,721 comments on “Newspoll: 50-50; Morgan: 53-47 to Coalition”

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  3. I don’t think Kennett is a particular fan of Abbott (Jeff is socially very liberal). It is more that he has a low opinion of Turnbull, as do many who have met him.

  4. Jamieson Murphy ‏@jamiesonmurph · 10h10 hours ago

    “I am deeply ashamed by Greg Hunt’s neglect of the Gomeroi, the elders and this sacred site,” Greg Hunt’s cousin Jen Hunt #coal #gomeroi

  7. Gillard’s hung parliament dealt with real politics, policy was negotiated and fought for. Pansies like Abbott + Turnbull don’t know how easy they’ve had it. A few errant upper house types prove too much to deal with leading to rushed legislation few voters understand, unreal.

    I just hope Julia is sitting back with a glass of wine having a good old laugh at how truly pathetic they are and the media.

  9. [ It is more that he has a low opinion of Turnbull, as do many who have met him.]

    I’m no fan of Kennett at all, but if he wants to spend the next couple of months slagging off Mal, then more power to his arm.

    Turnbull really does seem to have a way with people doesn’t he? To know him is to loathe him.

  11. Mike Hilliard @1607

    [I just hope Julia is sitting back with a glass of wine having a good old laugh at how truly pathetic they are and the media.]

    Only if the ALP win, not worth anything until then.

  13. Steelydan@1574

    [ The rabid hatred of the right wing fringe parties will be far out weighed by middle ALP voters who go over to Malcolm, just take a look at the polls. Imagine what would have happened at the last election if Malcolm had been the Libs leader and not Tony,Tony was hated way back then it was just that the labor party had been just so bad. ]

    I get it now. You are a comedian.

    Go for it!

    We all need a laugh.

  14. “I see the ALP is worried about the new senate reform measures and they should be, Green voters will mark all the above line boxes bloody hell they are the types that probable do all the below the line votes, the LNP much less worried there voters know who they want to vote for, but the ALP and there reliance on the housing commission vote, after Davo and Smithy finish there breaky cones they wont know what there doing, one above the line they could handle. The informal vote is going to go way up and that is going to hurt labor, big time. Imagine the scream from Labor if voting became non compulsory.”

    Steelydan your overstating the informal vote. There is a ‘saving provision’ in the legislation, which allows people who are use to the old system to vote one above the line for one party and their votes will still count.

    You have the cheek to talk about people who are uneducated, well your one of them.

  15. [The rabid hatred of the right wing fringe parties will be far out weighed by middle ALP voters who go over to Malcolm, just take a look at the polls. Imagine what would have happened at the last election if Malcolm had been the Libs leader and not Tony,Tony was hated way back then it was just that the labor party had been just so bad.]

    perhaps in the lower house, but I doubt this is the case in the senate – Australians can be pretty good at voting for one party in the lower house and another in the upper house to put a check on government.

    Also remember that turnbull had crashed and burned as LoTO. Just as he is doing as PM. all that is keeping his numbers up is that shorten has been written off by most political commentators (and many voters). the factors that will shave % points off turnbull have not even been played out yet. He seems to be planning to use IR as his DD trigger – which means a workchoices campaign; he is yet to bring down a budget, but chances are it is either going to have heavy cuts to services with token tax cuts to the better off, OR it is going to chart a future with growing debt – which will open them to attacks re: unfair cuts and financial incompetence; the hard right will keep destabilising – which will lead to attacks about disunity and the risk of abbott’s return; etc.

    finally – labor & the greens need to push the idea that “he either has no plan or he’s to scared to tell us what he’s planning”. The polls will tighten further. I still think he is likely to win, but if he does go to a DD will have to govern with a greens-xenaphon balance of power in the senate – which could make him a better PM.

  16. [Steelydan your overstating the informal vote. There is a ‘saving provision’ in the legislation, which allows people who are use to the old system to vote one above the line for one party and their votes will still count]

    ‘saving provision’ how quaint, so you can still screw microparty voters, but by giving them totally useless votes rather than informal votes.

    I can’t believe no one has analysed opv treaty wasted and informal votes the same, but it might not fit the predetermined answer to a dishonestly presented and overblown problem.

    Public debate and democracy at its very worst in these senate changes.

  17. CTari

    Thanks for that, I’ve been posting here for years so why say I post shit now. Obviously a new world order here.

  25. shiftaling@1577

    Yes, just prohibit the publication of documents resembling the current ballot paper apart from educational or illustrative purposes. I think they are an absurdity.

    You just described a HTV card.

  27. shiftaling@1580

    … I would like the preferential system to truly reflect the preferences of the voters. …

    So who do you think fills out the ballot papers?

    HTVs are merely a recommendation which may be followed, modified or totally ignored.

    Are you a Green?

  29. I like Bill Shorten’s stance on negative gearing simply because he recognises people’s worries about whether their kids get ever buy a house etc. Is home ownership for nearly everyone a thing of the past?

    I don’t think anyone much knows the ins and outs of negative gearing but Labor has shown empathy to a problem in a practical way.

    If Bill Shorten puts out some thoughtful well detailed policies on cutting expenditure even in health and education, as there must be some ways of reining in expenditure without affecting the actual services, he will do well. And keep sound national security. just in my opinion.

  30. [Peter van Onselen
    Peter van Onselen – Verified account ‏@vanOnselenP

    Jeff Kennett endorses Georgina Downer and then goes on to endorse Labor’s negative gearing scheme & attack Turnbull. You couldn’t write this
    9:59 PM – 8 Mar 2016
    30 RETWEETS21 LIKES]

  32. [Peter van Onselen – Verified account ‏@vanOnselenP

    I wanna be part of Turnbull’s team Jeff can you write me a reference? Sure thing Georgina, did I mention Malcolm is utterly hopeless?
    9:52 PM – 8 Mar 2016
    12 RETWEETS17 ]

  33. Andrew Elder gets it:

    You can muck about with Senate voting rules to exclude the randoms, corralling votes into the major parties like cattle into pens. All that will do introduce US-style gridlock where the party that doesn’t win government gets the Senate as a consolation prize, a check-and-balance, tit for tat.

    Last time I looked, Andrew Elder voted for the Liberal Party. So I don’t know how ‘The Greens’ apologists are going to sneer down their noses at his perceived self-interested comments by way of attempting to explain away the inevitable and obvious consequences of their deal with the Coalition.

    The foreseeable future is not that some great leader will rise and save us all from petty dealmaking, leading us forward to a common destiny. The foreseeable future is that a national leader will have to be prepared to negotiate anything and everything with everyone, every day, until the office grinds them down.

    Come back, Julia!

  36. [mikehilliard
    Posted Wednesday, March 9, 2016 at 7:41 pm | PERMALINK
    No Ispos since mid February, are they still in operation?    ]

    It only comes out once a month. We may well see it next week.

  37. Tamworth is my home town. I have also lived a number of years in Armidale. I regularly visit relatives and friends all over Barnaby’s electorate.

    From the time Tony Windsor supported PMJG most of the negative commentary about him came from far away experts, just as it has on PB today.

    One thing the outside experts never seem to discuss is the fact that Windsor was correct. Those who did not know in September 2013 that Abbott was a dunderhead now know for sure that he was and is.

    Undoubtedly many of those in New England who criticised Windsor supporting Labor did not ever vote for him. And of those who did vote for him but disagreed with his decision to go with JG, all of them with half a brain (probly most of them) with the benefit of time passing since September 2013 are likely to have moved on.

    Barnaby’s chances in New England will depend on the voters there being able to differentiate between the government of mad Abbott and the “new” government of Turnbull.

    Turnbull is not promoting this differentiation.

  38. Watching Lateline on 24 ATM

    Lovely piece on Tony Windsor and the New England electorate. If Windsor is not a candidate at the next election I’m a monkey pod denizen. We’ll know for certain tomorrow.

  39. his perceived self-interested comments

    Andrew Elder’s comments aren’t self-interested, they’re just wrong.

    …

    where the party that doesn’t win government gets the Senate as a consolation prize, a check-and-balance, tit for tat

    There is nothing about the Senate reforms that will automatically lead to this. More likely is that a party that wins big in the HoR will win big in the Senate, although neither the Libs nor (particularly) Labor will likely win a majority in the Senate under the new rules (no more so than the old rules).

    The only way the party that doesn’t win government “gets the Senate as a consolation prize” is if the voters explicitly choose to do this as an FU to both parties, and if the voters expressly want to do this then the system should reflect that will.

    And of course making any comparison with the US is fraught simply because they have a whole bunch of problematic mechanisms – State governments drawing the electoral boundaries for Congressional seats being the big one which has resulted in the Democrats basically being locked out of winning the US House of Reps for the time being. Not to mention the presidency being in the equation there and not here, along with non compulsory voting attendance and FPTP yada yada yada.

    Elder is normally better than making such bogus flippant throw-away comments.

  40. That occurred to me as well psyclaw@1637, re Windsor.
    People who wouldn’t have voted for him in 2013 (if he had run), because he backed Gillard may now have reconsidered.

    I wonder what if any,bonus Barnaby will get given his status as DPM.

  41. Hope the Greens in backing the Libs re-election agenda are acting on real “new information” that we aren’t allowed to know about and are not just dumping a pile of shit on Australia before self destructing

  42. Shock horror – Corbyn upsets Blairites by advocating the legalisation of prostitution. What sort of planet is England (not necessarily the UK)?
    “Mr Corbyn’s critics, who oppose his leadership style, his views on Trident, and on intervention in Syria, and his recent call for prostitution to be legalised, have been talking about whether they can move against him after the May elections or after the EU referendum in June – though the conspirators are held back by their failure to decide who should take his place.”

  43. Tony Windsor is obviously looking to a very close election result, and if he again can become important in the political life of Australia.

    It matters not whether Labor or Liberal – he wants to relive former glories.

    It would not surprise me if he is in contact with Malcolm Turnbull with hypothetical making of deals of support to get the lay of the land, so to speak, to decide whether he should run or not.

    He won’t do that with Labor this time because they are the underdogs. He wants to side with the “winner”.

  45. I concur with Jackol @1639, and I’ll add that despite the blatant rigging of Reps districts in the US it is still quite common historically for the same party to control both houses at a time.

  46. Andrew Elder is a former Lib voter … he was very pro Julia because he saw she actually knew what she was doing for the most part. If you’ve read his blog for a while you’d notice that he is more concerned with how poorly we are served by our media.

    He also appears to believe the current crop of lib/nats are utter dunces.

  47. [ Jeff Kennett endorses Georgina Downer and then goes on to endorse Labor’s negative gearing scheme & attack Turnbull. You couldn’t write this ]

    Why is it that Liberals only grow balls once they have been thrown out of politics?

  48. Steelydan claims:
    [The informal vote is going to go way up and that is going to hurt labor, big time.]

    David responds:
    [Steelydan your overstating the informal vote. There is a ‘saving provision’ in the legislation, which allows people who are use to the old system to vote one above the line for one party and their votes will still count.

    You have the cheek to talk about people who are uneducated, well your one of them.]

    A rise in the informal vote is one of the lines Labor and Dastyari also trotted out:
    [A Turnbull government plan to reform Senate voting would result in an extra 800,000 informal votes, a Labor analysis has warned.

    An internal ALP document seen by Fairfax Media argues that if Senate voting rules are changed so that voters must number from one to six “above the line”, there will be a rise in informal votes at the upcoming federal election.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/senate-voting-reform-will-cause-surge-in-informal-votes-labor-warns-20160221-gmzhp4.html#ixzz42OzjVDan

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