Newspoll: 50-50; Morgan: 53-47 to Coalition

Little change on a fortnight ago for both Newspoll, which repeats its tied result, and Roy Morgan, which finds Labor holding on to recent gains but advancing no further.

UPDATE: Contrary to what it says below, James J in comments relates that there is a Newspoll out, and that it’s unchanged on a fortnight ago: a tie on two-party preferred, with primary votes of Coalition 43%, Labor 35% and Greens 12%. Also unchanged is Malcolm Turnbull’s 55-21 lead as preferred prime minister, but he’s down four on approval to 44% and up three on disapproval to 41%, while Bill Shorten is up two to 30% and down two to 55%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1815. Full tables from The Australian.

There will apparently be no Newspoll this week, so Roy Morgan gets the guernsey instead. Their latest face-to-face plus SMS poll, conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 3011, has the Coalition lead at 53-47 on both the previous election and respondent-allocated measures of two-party preferred. This is half a point better for the Coalition than the previous two results, but still two points lower than in any of their earlier polls on Malcolm Turnbull’s watch. The primary vote figures are in interesting study in the effects of survey design, with the “others” vote spiking three points to 13%, its highest level this term. This is very likely influenced by the fact that the Nick Xenophon Team is now being included as an option in the questionnaire nationally, and not just in South Australia as before. The Coalition is down half a point to 43%, Labor is steady on 29.5%, and the Greens are down two to 13%.

UPDATE 2 (Essential Research): Essential Research is unchanged at 50-50, with primary votes of 43% for the Coalition (steady), 37% for Labor (down one) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Also featured are the monthly leadership ratings, which have Malcolm Turnbull down six on approval to 45% and up eight no disapproval to 35%, Bill Shorten steady on 27% and down one on disapproval to 47%, and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister narrowing from 52-15 to 48-19. Further questions find 41% approval for negative gearing, and 37% disapproval; 35% approving of Labor’s policy to limit it to newly built homes, and 39% disapproving; and 32% saying they would prefer house prices go up, with 34% wanting them to come down.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,721 comments on “Newspoll: 50-50; Morgan: 53-47 to Coalition”

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  1. Steelydan, I do get your drift, but I was talking about your 1505 in particular…

    [Do you the world of good, typical Labor no idea of the real world, what age before was it before guys decided that Santa didn’t exist. Definitely not saying you guys care less, rabid loons the lot of you but the average housing commission area voter most definitely.]

    I’m guessing, since I know you don’t like the ALP, that this cryptic collection of words, when translated into the real world, is meant to say something like… “The ALP sucks, ALP voters suck, and Santa is the king of the loons”.

  3. phoenixRED

    [ A physics impossibility – sound does not travel in a vacuum ….]

    Good point! But radio waves do – haven’t you ever noticed that there are more satellite dishes in Labor held electorates? That can’t just be a coincidence!

  4. Victoria @ 1538

    As I said earlier today. They may think they are confusing the Opposition, Greens and cross-benchers, but all they are doing is showing they are chaos and confusion.

  5. Hopefully Labor will think up as good a retort on this scare campaign.

    An obvious counter would be to ask him to ‘show his workings’. To describe a credible scenario whereby withdrawing a tax concession from people ‘investing’ in old housing for capital gains will lead to house prices collapsing, rents soaring and the stock market crashing. They could ask how could house prices collapse while rents soar. That makes absolutely no sense, as anyone who has done economics 101 would know. Perhaps he could point to a credible study that demonstrates how all these disasters will unfold.

    He should be able to give an indication of when the crash will come. For example, the announcement seems to have had no effect on rents, house prices or the sharemarket, even though prudent investors would need to take account of a risk of about 20% of this coming to pass. Presumably the crash would come well before July 1 next year if Labor were to win.

    Now there is no point in asking a Liberal this, especially one stupid as Dutton. He’ll just repeat his assertion louder and longer and the mainstream media won’t challenge. No one will suggest, for example, that if this is at all credible then it’s grossly irresponsible for a Minister to trash the economy in this way and that Turnbull should be hauling him into his office and sacking him on the spot.

    There’s certainly no use raising it in question time.

    Ridicule would seem to be the best strategy.

    Another think we could ask – why is the Immigration Minister talking about tax policy?

  7. I’m not at all surprised Lizzie. MrsD didn’t know until I explained what all the made-up fuss was about. MrsD just said well it’s none of our business but if it’s true she doesn’t have good taste in men :devil:

  8. davidwh@#1540 @ guytaur@#1543:
    And yet the slope of the fall in the Bludgertrack LNP 2PP since Jan is only matched by 2 previous incumbents: the Rudd restoration and Abbott’s three plummets – and look how well they turned out.

  10. [ Player One

    Posted Wednesday, March 9, 2016 at 5:42 pm | Permalink

    phoenixRED

    A physics impossibility – sound does not travel in a vacuum ….

    Good point! But radio waves do – haven’t you ever noticed that there are more satellite dishes in Labor held electorates? That can’t just be a coincidence!

    ]

    remember – Empty vessels make the most noise …

    Moral – DONT FEED TROLLS !!!!!

  11. [An obvious counter would be to ask him to ‘show his workings’.]

    In fact, I think the best one is the one Shorten has already used. The Coalition are more concerned to help someone can buy their seventh home than they are concerned to help someone buy their first.

  12. zoomster@1545

    Further to discussions earlier, I am being assured by a former Green candidate for Indi that the decision to run a split ticket in the past was made by party HQ, not by the locals.

    I (cough) think she’s misremembering (given public comments made at the time) but regardless, it is a bit of further evidence that these decisions aren’t always made at the local level.

    Indeed, if this is true, then when I was a Labor candidate I had more say over where my preferences went than the Green candidate did.

    How does split tickets in HoR elections work? Is it just printing two sets of HTV cards?

  13. Canberra residents can you confirm?

    andrewprobyn: CATERING CHAOS: Canberra restaurants and hotels being inundated with bookings for the Phantom Budget night on May 3.
    West Oz at Portia’s

  14. rhwombat agree there has been a steady trend away from the government since the Christmas break when people expected the government to start governing and the government just looked lost and uncertain. I expect the trend will continue unless the government starts doing what we pay them to do.

  17. With above the line senate voting what is the likelihood of right wing fringe parties doing how to vote cards that exhaust their voters’ preferences before they get to the LNP. Given their rabid hatred of turnbull, what impact could this have on the eventual LNP senate vote? there will likely be a multitude of RWNJ parties at the election, I can see them drawing and exhausting LNP votes. On the left to centre right vote, there are fewer parties and I expect the ALP and/or Greens will secure most of these votes eventually. If up to say 10% of indirect LNP voters effectively disenfranchise themselves, what will this mean for the senate? has anyone crunched such numbers?

  18. I notice with the talk of a early election betting agencies have brought the odds in for a Coalition victory in to $1.13 labor at $6. Apparently betting agencies have never got the winner of a federal election wrong. Some of you guys must have a spare $100 floating around.

  19. SteelyDan, it would be a disservice to the memory of all of those long-dead elephants for me to come down from my ivory tower now.

  20. I actually think that HTV should be abolished – it’s not difficult to preference a lower house ballot paper. We should let the preferences run free

  22. The Liberals are not the only ones capable of running an effective scare campaign. Labor and the unions have plenty to work with and they are already under way.

    Just today I received a flier from our local Labor member about the Liberals intention to cut penalty rates. My first thought was – yes, that’s good. That’s going to work.

    And there’s plenty more where that came from.

  24. The rabid hatred of the right wing fringe parties will be far out weighed by middle ALP voters who go over to Malcolm, just take a look at the polls. Imagine what would have happened at the last election if Malcolm had been the Libs leader and not Tony,Tony was hated way back then it was just that the labor party had been just so bad.

  25. shiftaling

    Right, so we abolish HTVs.

    So, in the week before the next election, people like me field phone calls from thousands of people asking us how they should vote.

    Are we banned from answering?

    If we find it a bit too overwhelming to cope with the deluge of phone calls and emails, are we banned from photocopying our recommendations and sending them out to those who request them?

    If we find the hassle of photocopying and postage too onerous, are we banned from approaching our local branch and asking them to help out?

    If they find the task beyond them, are they banned from approaching Party HQ and asking if they can assist with a print run?

    And if HTVs are banned, do we also ban party members from standing outside polling booths and talking to people?

  26. I think Tony Windsor is not pleased that Fairfax is pre-empting his decision. But it might be interesting.

    [Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce is facing a potentially dangerous, multi-pronged attack in his seat of New England, with the challenge of Tony Windsor to be augmented by a high-profile candidate representing the Greens.

    Mr Windsor is set to announce his intention to again contest New England at a press conference in Canberra on Thursday, less than three years after his retirement from politics.

    Fairfax Media can reveal the race for New England will get more crowded, with NSW upper-house MP Jeremy Buckingham close to announcing a dramatic switch to the federal sphere to contest the seat.

    A senior Greens source confirmed on Wednesday that Mr Buckingham, who has established a profile in New England through years of campaigning against coal and coal seam gas mining around the Liverpool Plains, is being urged to run and is “seriously considering” putting his hand up.

    Greens strategists believe his “attack dog” reputation, particularly against Mr Joyce’s complicated stance on mining, can significantly boost the Greens’ vote and “take more bark off Barnaby”.]

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/barnaby-joyce-faces-pincermovement-threat-from-tony-windsor-and-state-green-jeremy-buckingham-in-new-england-20160309-gnepnd.html

  27. Yes, just prohibit the publication of documents resembling the current ballot paper apart from educational or illustrative purposes. I think they are an absurdity.

  28. shiftaling

    You have to take into account that a lot of voters vote because they have to or get fined.

    My biggest worry is that last time I voted in the State Election the Chinese Community around Hurstville and other areas were told by their Community leaders how to vote and they did in droves.

    It is something we are going to get used to if it doesn’t stop but for me that is wrong and there should be something done about it through the Electoral Commission.

  29. Good points. I am sick of men who mistreat women.

    Some other areas where men are mistreating women and that may exercise the mind of Ms Oriel:

    1. women being banned from the priesthood in the Roman Catholic church
    2. Women receiving around 80% of the pay of men
    3. Constant threats against women’s bodies in particular in relation to sexual behaviour and reproduction
    4. A Cabinet in which there was only one woman and 21 men.
    5. The complete absence of women from editor positions in all major Australian newspapers.
    6. The pattern whereby female sports receive grossly disproportionate funding from goverments
    7. The pathetic representation of women in the ranks of CEOs of major companies.
    8. The gross underrepresentation of women among the ranks of Uni chancellors and vice chancellors.

    Go for it, Jennifer!

  30. I know people won’t agree with me, but I would like the preferential system to truly reflect the preferences of the voters. There are plenty of existing restrictions on what parties may publish before an election, I don’t see it as a free speech issue.

  31. lizzie, 1576

    I hold Buckingham in high regard, but I don’t think it’s a particularly good idea for him to do this, especially against a strong candidate like Windsor

  33. So is it ok for political parties to publish HTV cards according to self interested preference swap deals but not Chinese community leaders? What an anti-democratic notion. If anything I would go the other way and ban only registered parties from publishing them.

  34. Steely dan: The rabid hatred of the right wing fringe parties will be far out weighed by middle ALP voters who go over to Malcolm

    And why on Earth would ‘middle ALP voters’ vote for the 2014 Budget?

  37. Victorian education.

    [Hundreds of millions of dollars in education department grants are being given to private schools with no measures to track how the money is being spent, an auditor-general’s report has found.

    The state’s financial watchdog has found little evidence that the money, estimated to be $676 million this year, is being used appropriately by the schools.

    More than a third of Victorian students go to private schools.

    In a scathing report, acting Auditor-General Dr Peter Frost said the education department had “weak” funding agreements with the schools, no performance measurement or targets, and that the schools were unable to prove funds were spent as they were intended.

    “My audit found that there is limited assurance that grants are used for their intended purpose or are achieving intended outcomes,” Dr Frost said in the Grants to Non-Government Schools report, which was tabled in Parliament on Wednesday.

    “The absence of clear, appropriate governance by {the education department} has led to poor grant administration, including inadequate monitoring … of whether grants are used as intended.”

    In a sample audit of 22 schools, none could prove that their funding was not used on capital works, which is forbidden.

    And only 20 per cent of schools receiving student disability grants could prove that they were used for the purpose that they were intended.]

    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/most-private-schools-cant-prove-they-spend-government-funds-appropriately-watchdog-20160309-gnekbj.html

  38. ‘How to vote’ cards date back to when there were only candidate names on ballot papers, with no indication of political affiliation, all part of a polite fiction that we were voting for a person, not a party. Without them, the informal vote rate would have been ridiculously high.

    Party affiliation was added in the 1970s, but the HTVs are still useful. I use them to identify the friends of the major parties among the independents and minor parties, so I can decide my own sequence of preferences.

  39. [Some of you guys must have a spare $100 floating around.]
    My spare $10 went on Kasich about a week ago. The GOP jockeys need to get the whip out.

  42. lizzie, 1585

    It’s not so much taking votes away from each other, more that (I haven’t checked this but it sounds reasonable to me) if Windsor does worse than Buckingham, then its infinitely less likely that Barnaby will lose his seat (because I think the preference flows from Windsor would more likely flow to Barnaby than Buckingham, at least compared to Buckingham-to-Windsor).

    Additionally three high-profile candidates might create a bit of a media vacuum in the area, particularly between Windsor and Buckingham.

    I think if Buckingham wants to have a serious tilt at New England, he should wait until Windsor retires (considering Buckingham is about 20 years younger than him, and Windsor isn’t likely to continue on in the seat forever), because he’s much more likely to get it.

  43. Airlines

    I expect Buckingham will wait to see what Windsor decides before throwing his hat in. Going to be a real anti-climax if Windsor says No.

  44. lizzie, 1593

    Agreed. It’d be almost political seppuku to go up against Windsor, particularly if you’re on the same anti-Nats side.

  45. Channel 7 did a segment on Jeff Kennett paying out on Turnbull. Basically telling Turnbull to do something novel and govern!! Sometimes Kennett hits nail on proverbial head!

  46. I know it’s been done to death, but Tony still believes his government was the tops for achievement.

    [So what does “the best response” to the Abbott government’s record say?

    It says when Abbott gazed upon Australia and thought of all it could be and what he could achieve, he saw bogeymen and everything he wanted to rid it of. His vision of what Australia could be was a vision where he was taking things away, erasing parts, not allowing things to change too much.

    And, he allowed himself to be too influenced by a staffer.

    But just as sexism doesn’t explain everything about the reams written about Credlin but does explain some things, she did not bring down his government, although she certainly helped. Let’s not forget who was in charge.]

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/mar/09/tony-abbott-has-been-relegated-to-a-bit-part-in-the-downfall-of-his-government

  47. Nice point
    [That doesn’t mean they will switch their vote to Labor, just that they are more prepared to consider Labor
    ]
    I think that sums up the situation well.
    The campaign is the chance for Labor to put their positive policies up against Liberal fear.

  48. davidwh
    I am not betting on an election, I am betting on the GOP nominee. Its like betting on the dogs only the dogs have been unmuzzled and drenched in rabbit blood.

  50. Josephine Cashman on the Drum. Supposed to be some sort of Indigenous rep. but she sounds straight out Liberal. Fund private schools. More police. Hmmm.

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