Newspoll: 50-50; Morgan: 53-47 to Coalition

Little change on a fortnight ago for both Newspoll, which repeats its tied result, and Roy Morgan, which finds Labor holding on to recent gains but advancing no further.

UPDATE: Contrary to what it says below, James J in comments relates that there is a Newspoll out, and that it’s unchanged on a fortnight ago: a tie on two-party preferred, with primary votes of Coalition 43%, Labor 35% and Greens 12%. Also unchanged is Malcolm Turnbull’s 55-21 lead as preferred prime minister, but he’s down four on approval to 44% and up three on disapproval to 41%, while Bill Shorten is up two to 30% and down two to 55%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1815. Full tables from The Australian.

There will apparently be no Newspoll this week, so Roy Morgan gets the guernsey instead. Their latest face-to-face plus SMS poll, conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 3011, has the Coalition lead at 53-47 on both the previous election and respondent-allocated measures of two-party preferred. This is half a point better for the Coalition than the previous two results, but still two points lower than in any of their earlier polls on Malcolm Turnbull’s watch. The primary vote figures are in interesting study in the effects of survey design, with the “others” vote spiking three points to 13%, its highest level this term. This is very likely influenced by the fact that the Nick Xenophon Team is now being included as an option in the questionnaire nationally, and not just in South Australia as before. The Coalition is down half a point to 43%, Labor is steady on 29.5%, and the Greens are down two to 13%.

UPDATE 2 (Essential Research): Essential Research is unchanged at 50-50, with primary votes of 43% for the Coalition (steady), 37% for Labor (down one) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Also featured are the monthly leadership ratings, which have Malcolm Turnbull down six on approval to 45% and up eight no disapproval to 35%, Bill Shorten steady on 27% and down one on disapproval to 47%, and Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister narrowing from 52-15 to 48-19. Further questions find 41% approval for negative gearing, and 37% disapproval; 35% approving of Labor’s policy to limit it to newly built homes, and 39% disapproving; and 32% saying they would prefer house prices go up, with 34% wanting them to come down.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,721 comments on “Newspoll: 50-50; Morgan: 53-47 to Coalition”

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  1. [I like the way conservatives bang on about the evils of “Big Government”, but when in power never do anything about it]

    Newman tried in QLD but it turned out to be a politically unwise course of action.

  2. Steelydan, if I’m so wrong, why is your literacy so poor? You went to a Public School but now despise those you grew up with? Are you a former Houso yourself?

    If I’m wrong about the media you consume to inform yourself politically, then please enlighten me about where, in fact, you do get your political perspective from? Which media do you consume to inform yourself politically?

    Why are you so reflexively and dismissively anti Labor? Why do you not care about people living at the bottom of our social strata? Why do you not think that these people deserve a decent standard of living and a degree of dignity in their lives? Which a first world country is more than able to afford. Why do you subscribe to the notion that, ‘To the victor goes the spoils’? By that I mean, why do you think that only those who are fortunate enough to be able to succeed in life should have all the government concessions handed to them, and those who aren’t as capable of living a hard-working and productive life only entitled to as little as the society can mete out to them without embarrassment?

    Why do you think that these people don’t deserve political representation that advocates for their needs as much as a citizen who doesn’t live in Housing Commission accommodation?

    I’d be really interested to know. 🙂

  3. I can remember handing out How to Votes at the last state election. A nervous woman sidled up to me and said she wasn’t sure if she was on the electoral roll, so I explained the voting procedure and what to expect inside the polling booth. Sure enough she came out with register to vote papers and remarked that she didn’t think she was worthy of a vote – we are talking depressive mental illness I think – I am such an expert I don’t know when to take a pet to the vet.
    A Liberal apparachik (who reminded me of the boyz in Clockwork Orange) told her that he resented his taxes keeping her. At which point he got the civil society is judged by how it treats its most vulnerable members lecture.

    I am often surprised that the ministry of housing clients are staunch Liberal supporters – don’t they have a hip pocket nerve

  4. Rates Analyst,

    The Skyrail solution is the cheapest to build, opens up land for community use and means that communities are not separated by a railway line.

    Getting rid of the level crossings is a far more popular demand than the hysteria of a few Lib inspired nimbys.

  5. Rewi yes I do assert and where the the hell have you been living. What city do you live in? find out the largest housing commission area have a walk through and introduce yourself to a few people and have a yarn. Do you the world of good, typical Labor no idea of the real world, what age before was it before guys decided that Santa didn’t exist. Definitely not saying you guys care less, rabid loons the lot of you but the average housing commission area voter most definitely.

  6. I completely agree Growler.

    Not sure if you saw my longer comment above, but I live near a proposed Skyrail and hope it does it get built SOON.

  7. If it was clear one particular side of politics cared about their vote more, then you can bet that party would be campaigning to stop compulsory voting.

    When you look to places with voluntary voting around the world, you don’t see a pattern of any particular part of the political spectrum dominating.

    Neither the ALP or LNP want to have to spend campaign funds getting out the vote, and while I know some passionate Greens, I also know a few who simply don’t like the major’s (and probably wouldn’t vote).

  8. RA,

    Come out the Hurstbridge line one day and travel through Ivanhoe, Eaglemont and Heidelberg and beyond. You can see in to people’s backyards for miles around.

  9. mb

    [ I’m a bit worried about the neg gearing policy, but it seems to be the Labor right who have embraced it. ]

    And the BCA?

  11. As you can if you travel on the new skyrail from Dandenong to Caulfield. And then continue on through Malvern!

    There’s plenty of elevated rail around.

    I think the only objectors are the people who imagined a full underground solution.

    I think the Gov should just build it and the vast majority will come around.

  13. Steelydan,

    I was having a go at your grammar before because I was enjoying the irony, but seriously, I have no idea what you are saying @1505.

    It reads like some stream of consciousness about how Labor are not in the real world (which is also ironic).

  15. vic,

    How dare you call someone’s “Sumatran Jungle” garden overgrown foliage.

    I think you might have been looking out the wrong side of the train.

  19. NateSilver538: Another big question from tonight: are polls showing big Clinton leads in states like OH & IL reliable? https://t.co/3GiH1TCgWY

    I am posting here because more polling unreliability might mean Essential is closer to the truth here than Morgan.

    I have no idea and will not until we get an election but given events I find it hard to believe the polls have not moved more.

    Is it Landline syndrome again? Or is it people are being asked on mobiles their vote and are lying about their location?

    Maybe its time to have a polling app developed that works on the location of the GPS of the phone that can only be accessed after the polling company has called the mobile.

    I don’t know but more unreliable polls does raise questions as to why? Do the UK and US unreliable polling apply in Australia?

  21. Peter Dutton’s contribution to the tax debate this afternoon reminds us that while people who vote Liberal aren’t stupid, the Liberals chase the votes of stupid people.

    Just think about it. The continued health of the Australian economy supposedly depends upon maintaining generous concessions for one class of investor, those who purchase existing homes in the hope of capital gains from ever-spiralling home prices. If it’s true that the Australian economy is so fragile, we’re stuffed.

    Now, people who own several negatively geared properties aren’t affected, but will have less opportunity to profit in this way in future. They may or may not believe what Dutton says. If they are educated people with a good knowledge of investments and taxation strategies, they probably don’t, although they’ll cheer him on. They want to keep their nice little earner.

    But, assuming that Dutton isn’t just an idiot talking through his hat (or out of an orifice other than his mouth), his remarks are aimed at people who are likely to believe it. These would presumably be people who have trouble finding a place to live, let alone hope to pick up another couple of properties to gain tax benefits. We’ve seen it all before, asylum seekers clogging freeways, the carbon proice wiping out large towns, same sex marriage putting pets at risk.

    Conservatives are masters at getting people to vote against their own interests.

  22. The cows will stop giving milk…the chooks will stoo laying…the sun will go dark…

    [“I think the economy will come to a shuddering halt and I think the stock market will crash,” the Immigration Minister told Sydney radio station 2SM.]

  23. Likes
    Tweets
    [Bridget O’Flynn
    3m3 minutes ago
    Bridget O’Flynn ‏@BridgetOFlynn
    Sinodinos: The Budget will be on the 10th May.
    Speers:The 10th of May?
    Sinodinos:Barring any change to that.

    Give me a break.]

  24. This arrogant twerp must be a mate of Steelydan.

    [IT IS not the government’s job to ban practices like eyeball tattooing just because they are stupidly dangerous, according to NSW upper house member Peter Phelps.

    The outspoken libertarian government whip rejected Labor’s push to legislate against the risky cosmetic surgery because, like contact sports and questionable sexual practices, it was none of the government’s business.

    “We’re not going to ban rugby league. We’re not going to ban ballet,” he said.

    “We’re not going to ban anal fisting.

    “These things are dangerous but we’re not going to ban them, are we?

    “Or maybe we are. Maybe we’ve reached a whole new morality in this state which says: because I don’t like it and it’s a bit dangerous, let’s just ban it all.”

    …”It’s not your job to tell me how to live my life.

    “It’s your job to fix me up when I stuff up my life, but it’s not your job to set the moral boundaries by which I shall live my life. ]

    http://www.northernstar.com.au/news/eyeball-tattoos-anal-fisting-should-be-legal-mp/2958101/

  26. Steelydan@1483

    ALP believe they have some innate ability to read people and know what is best for them big Government knowing what is best for people throwing around money like it is confetti.

    Utter nonsense again – lets see your evidence of this.

    We know howard and Costello ran the biggest government sine WW2 –

    dave@580 on BludgerTrack quarterly, and other stories | The Poll Bludger

    Spending Sprees ?

    The Howard Government was the highest taxing government in Australia’s history and Minchin was Finance Minister when the peak level was reached.

    Minchin has a stunning record as Finance Minister.

    The six years in Australia’s history where the tax to GDP ratio were highest were all when he was Finance Minister.

    Any mug can get a budget surplus if you tax the tripe out of businesses and consumers.

    http://www.marketeconomics.com.au/2387-liberal-party-hypocrisy

  28. Question. you have no idea of what I am saying, yeah ya do, you just choose to ignore it. The Labor party are genuinely concerned about the new senate voting system hence all there statement about informal votes. It would be interesting to see which electorates have the highest informal vote, I think I already know.

  30. Guytaur

    I think polling an Open Primary is several orders of magnitude harder than polling a compulsory final election…

    I wouldn’t necessarily have thought the Michigan result has much influence on Australia.

    Most interesting will be if it happens again in other similar states (like Ohio and Illinois), then it might be structural.

    As it stands, most of those polls were actually taken a few weeks ago, and so the change might simply be people changing their mind. (Voters are more fluid in primaries, since the average democrat can probably find something to like about either Clinton or Sanders…)

  31. Steve

    Dutton’s comment is up there with Fraser saying keep your money safe put it under your bed. Labor retort. Thats where the communists are.

    Hopefully Labor will think up as good a retort on this scare campaign.

  32. [ Steve777

    Posted Wednesday, March 9, 2016 at 5:20 pm | Permalink

    Peter Dutton’s contribution to the tax debate this afternoon reminds us that while people who vote Liberal aren’t stupid, the Liberals chase the votes of stupid people.

    ]

    Although it is not true that all people who are conservative/LNP voters are stupid people, it is true that most stupid people are conservative/LNP voters.

  34. Actually, steely, the Senate reforms should lessen the number of informal votes.

    Firstly, as possum has shown -http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2010/08/25/analysing-the-informal-vote/ – there is clearly a higher informal vote when voters from states with OPV vote at a federal election, obviously because of the confusion between the two systems.

    So bringing the two systems in line should lessen the informal vote in these States.

    Secondly, as possum has also shown, the number of informal votes increase proportionally to the number of candidates on the ticket. One of the aims of the changes is to reduce the number of minor parties, and thus reduce the number of names on the ballot.

    Thirdly, many votes which would have counted as informal under the ‘old’ system will be valid under the new.

    So the new system should lessen the number of informal votes, and fewer informal votes should benefit the ALP.

  35. Player one

    As per Liberal strategist comments today, Turnbull and Co will be running a scare campaign based on negative gearing and superannuation changes. Dutton has hit the ground running

  37. RA

    Thanks for that 🙂

    I do find the polls here surprising though as I expected more of a change than we got due to events.

    This is going by comments of people I know who are not political watchers like us but tune in when something grabs their attention or there is an election on.

    The anecdotal evidence I was receiving was the general public was not impressed and I expected that to be reflected big time in the polls

  38. This from Dennis Shanahan in the Oz

    impasse that senior cabinet ministers do not know what is happening about something as fundamental as the date of the budget or the likelihood of an early election on July 2.

    As cabinet met in Adelaide last night, there were senior cabinet ministers not knowing how to read the comments of Malcolm Turnbull and Assistant Treasurer Kelly O’Dwyer, which had left open the possibility of bringing forward the budget by a week to May 3 and the calling of a double-dissolution election for July 2.

    This was the last cabinet meeting before next Thursday’s final scheduled parliamentary sitting day before the budget sitting begins on May 10.

    MPs, ministers and party strategists are alive with the prospect that the Prime Minister is considering bringing forward the budget to allow a range of legislative steps to be taken to provide a double-dissolution election trigger over the building industry corruption watchdog, ensure the passage of money bills to keep the government functioning and to allow the delivery of a budget-cum-tax statement to take to the election.

  40. Gytaur generally it takes big events to move the polls a large amount. What we are seeing now is a general loss of support for Turnbull and the government due to a series of relatively smaller events.

  41. Mr Green appears confident of result.

    AntonyGreenABC: @roshart @TonyWindsor Ignore the margin, all about first prefs. Windsor always had greater than 45% first pref. Replicate that and he wins.

    I assume this is based on last election results and an assumption that Windsor should get similar numbers.

  42. victoria

    [ Dutton has hit the ground running ]

    Dutton makes about as much sense as the voices inside Steely Dan’s head.

  43. dwh

    Yes I know that is true generally. However headlines of Abbott at war with Turnbull were out there in the polling period.

    That means a direct comparison with polls for Labor is in order. To my memory they moved faster against Labor than the polls today are against the LNP.

  44. Windsor winning is probably a good thing for the country regardless of which side wins the election. Not that I particularly regard Windsor but at least he has no chance of being the DPM.

  45. Further to discussions earlier, I am being assured by a former Green candidate for Indi that the decision to run a split ticket in the past was made by party HQ, not by the locals.

    I (cough) think she’s misremembering (given public comments made at the time) but regardless, it is a bit of further evidence that these decisions aren’t always made at the local level.

    Indeed, if this is true, then when I was a Labor candidate I had more say over where my preferences went than the Green candidate did.

  46. [ Player One

    Posted Wednesday, March 9, 2016 at 5:34 pm | Permalink

    victoria

    Dutton has hit the ground running

    Dutton makes about as much sense as the voices inside Steely Dan’s head.
    ]

    A physics impossibility – sound does not travel in a vacuum ….

  48. [The 10 divisions with the highest rates of informal voting at the 2010 House of Representatives election were Blaxland, Fowler, Watson, Chifley, McMahon, Werriwa, Greenway, Barton, Reid, and Parramatta.]

    All Labor, basically western Sydney, but the next bit might explain why.

    [As has been the case in previous studies, English language proficiency and the numbers of candidates on ballot papers continue to be significant factors associated with the level of informal voting (or, in the case of candidate numbers, changes in the level of informal voting)]

    There are demographics on first language which I’m too lazy to look up but it may just be that western Sydney has a higher % with English as second language.

    http://www.aec.gov.au/about_aec/research/paper12/files/informality-e2010.pdf

  49. Chris Bowen ‏@Bowenchris · 8h8 hours ago

    As Labor leads on policy the Government can’t work out what day the budget will be let alone what’ll be in it #chaos

  50. Guytaur @ 1537

    [I do find the polls here surprising though as I expected more of a change than we got due to events]

    The problem is that we never really know what a poll measures. Even though the question is clear enough, it is an impossible hypothetical. There will not be an election tomorrow or today. And before there is an election there will be at least 5 weeks of campaigning, which may well change the dynamic. In my view, this election certainly will have a different dynamic in the campaign.

    My guess is that polls will show a lag as swinging voters who invested a degree of hope and expectation in Turnbull leading his party closer to the centre (where the swinging voters live) individually reach the point where they realise those expectations have no chance of being realised. That doesn’t mean they will switch their vote to Labor, just that they are more prepared to consider Labor. And this is where the campaign is really going to matter. Labor will have a chance to grab enough of these voters to win government if the campaign well and on good policies. But the absence of a bigger move now only means there is a way to go.

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