Newspoll: 50-50

Newspoll drops a bombshell with a poll showing Labor drawing level with the Coalition on two-party preferred.

The Australian has a surprise in store tomorrow, with the latest Newspoll survey showing the two parties at level pegging on two-party preferred, wiping out a 53-47 lead to the Coalition at the last poll three weeks ago. The Coalition is down three on the primary vote to 43%, Labor is up one to 35%, and the Greens are up one to 12%. This has been reflected in personal ratings, with Malcolm Turnbull down five on approval to 48% and up seven on disapproval to 38%, while Bill Shorten is up three on approval to 28% and down three on disapproval to 57%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister narrows from 59-20 to 55-21. The poll also finds 47% support for Labor’s negative gearing plan, with 31% opposed and 22% undecided. It was conducted Thursday to Sunday by Galaxy Research from a sample of 1807, contacted online and through automated phone polling. UPDATE: Also from Newspoll are results on “words used to describe the leaders” and “best leader to handle issues.

Note that there are a further two new posts beneath this one, one providing a forum for discussion on Senate reform and double dissolution talk separate from the main thread, the other being the return of Seat of the Week.

UPDATE (Roy Morgan): Roy Morgan finds no change on a much improved result for Labor a fortnight ago, with the Coalition again leading 52.5-47.5 on both respondent-allocated and previous-election measures of two-party preferred. The primary votes are Coalition 43.5% (steady), Labor 29.5% (up 0.5%) and Greens 15% (down one). The poll was conducted by face-to-face and SMS over the past two weekends from a sample of 3116.

UPDATE 2 (Essential Research): Essential Research is steady at 52-48 to the Coalition, but Labor’s primary vote has bounced back two points to 35% after dropping the same amount last week – unusually volatile behaviour for this series, which provides a rolling average of two weekly results. The Coalition is up a point to 44%, with the Greens down one to 10%. The most interesting of the supplementary questions divided the sample into two halves and asked a separate question on negative gearing: a straight one on reform “so that, for future purchases, investors can only claim tax deductions for
investments in newly built homes”, and another attributing the policy to Labor. The switch made surprisingly little difference: the former had 38% approval and 28% disapproval, the latter 37% and 32%, with moderate variations between Labor and Coalition voters cancelling out in the totals. Other results find 31% approval and 54% disapproval of cutting Sunday penalty rates in hospitality, entertainment and retail, and grim assessments on the health of the economy and respondents’ financial wellbeing – only company profits perceived as having improved over the past year, and very large majorities rating that the cost of living has worsened. The poll was conducted online, over two weeks from a sample of 2017 in the case of voting intention, and Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1002 for the rest.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,223 comments on “Newspoll: 50-50”

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  1. vic

    [It’s disappointing someone seeking to be PM resorts to name calling when confronted with a different policy view. ]

    And Greg Jennet was very happy to get stuck into Shorten for an ‘insult’ when interviewing Tania.

  6. So defence white paper out tomorrow.

    Libs better not be hoping this will give them much of a boost.

    Debate is focusing more on Tax and the Economy and i think people will have at best a passing interest in the White Paper.

    And, the ALP has plenty of room to weave anything in there into its own narrative on Jobs and the Economy.

    Also….if the White Paper process is appropriate in this case, why isn’t it appropriate to have the same process about the important matter of Tax Reform??

  7. http://www.theguardian.com/society/2016/feb/24/andrew-denton-the-one-argument-stopping-australia-from-legalising-assisted-dying-is-implausible
    [Testifying to the state parliament’s end of life choices inquiry last year, a Victorian coroner, John Olle, estimated that one elderly Victorian died in this way every week. And the National Coronial Information Service reports that every week, two Australians over the age of 80 take their lives. The most common method? Hanging.

    It is these grannies who deserve protection from our politicians.

    When are they going to act?]

  9. I do love this great new theory of the housing market the Libs have come up with.

    Apparently the price of new dwellings is completely and utterly detached from the price of old dwellings (even next door it would seem).

    That would seem to a poor innocent soul like me to be completely detached from sanity, but hey who knows it might be true along with the global warming hoax, and teh gays are indoctrinating our schoolkids in Marxist relativism.

  10. SK

    [Re Eastern Europeans and WW2
    I sometimes get flashbacks of Antony Beevor’s descriptions of what the Ukrainians (siding wit the Germans) did. Not to mention what the Germans did, and the Russians.]

    I’ve read Beevor’s Berlin – very depressing!

    But I’m a glutton for punishment so have just started Ian Kershaws’ “The End”. Same subject.

  12. [Cory Bernardi
    Cory Bernardi – Verified account ‏@corybernardi

    It’s disappointing someone seeking to be PM resorts to name calling when confronted with a different policy view]

    … says the guy who compared gay marriage to bestiality.

  13. ratsak

    Basically the fibs have decided on a big scare campaign. As I said Labor need to rinse and repeat the benefits to the budget bottom line

  15. [Great performance by Kelly O’Loudmouth in verballing Andrew Leigh in order to deflect from her own incompetence.]

    The ‘immovable object’ couldn’t deflect that.

  16. Antony Beevors ‘Berlin’ is almost as good as his ‘Stalingrad’.

    His ‘The Second World War’ isnt as good but the sections on the horrors of the camps were so confronting – I kept putting it away and kept going back to it.

  17. [ Apparently the price of new dwellings is completely and utterly detached from the price of old dwellings (even next door it would seem). ]

    Apparently (according to the Mouth from the South) the price of new dwellings is also detached from an increase in supply of new Dwellings?

    Under the ALP’s policy that encourages investment in new housing stock, her position seems to be that the price of those will increase, even though supply of those will increase??

    Strange. She really hasn’t thought this through.

  19. [Basically the fibs have decided on a big scare campaign. As I said Labor need to rinse and repeat the benefits to the budget bottom line]

    Nah, Labor just has to keep the Libs talking. The more they talk the stoopider they sound.

  20. According to the geniuses on the Coalition side, the impact of Labor tax policies is very simple: For those who are looking to buy houses, the prices will only go up; for those looking to sell houses, prices will only go down.

    Simple really. Nothing to do with the property – everything to do with whether you are trying to scare the person who is trying to get into the market or scare the person who already owns property.

  21. SK

    [I sometimes get flashbacks of Antony Beevor’s descriptions of what the Ukrainians (siding wit the Germans) did. Not to mention what the Germans did, and the Russians.]

    Someone I know who lived thru WW2 in the Balkans told me that the Nazis were preferable to the Italians; the Nazis had an iron discipline, but the Italians were ‘anything goes’.

    Then again, this person wasn’t Jewish.

  25. mb

    [ut I find your statement a bit offensive.]

    Possibly a little but he’s got a certain air about him. Abetz no doubt thinks he’s the greatest thing since sliced bread.

  26. My father preferred the German concentration camp to the American POW one, as at least the first was organised…(mind you, he was in a position of priviledge in the first one, having been sent there after being court martialled).

  27. On GVTs, I will freely admit that the Greens are just as complicit in engaging in dodgy GVT preference deals as everyone else, their baffling decision to preference Family First ahead of Labor in several states in 2013 being one of the most glaring examples. I also was very unimpressed that (if I’m remembering correctly) the Greens preferenced PUP ahead of Labor in Queensland – who, of course, ended up voting to repeal the carbon tax.

    And that is yet another reason why I support these reforms. I don’t want to have to choose between numbering 50+ boxes or worrying about the Greens sending my preferences off to very strange places.

  28. Simon Katich@1939

    bemused,
    they dont teach the kiddies that anymore. They teach them to use the brakes in modern cars.

    Makes no sense to me. I like a gear that allows me to feel the engine, sit lower to the road and ready to help me get out of a corner.

    It is because such a high percentage of cars are now automatics.

    I have never owned an automatic and never will.

  29. How Gary Gray’s comments in parliament are being reported:

    [In an unusual speech to the House of Representatives, Mr Gray laid out a compelling case for the need for voting reforms before conceding he would not vote for the Coalition’s proposals.

    Labor MPs face expulsion for crossing the floor.

    Senator Wong, along with Stephen Conroy, prevailed in convincing the shadow cabinet to oppose the government’s changes against the advice of Mr Gray and fellow frontbencher David Feeney.

    Mr Gray told the House that Labor’s position appeared to suggest the ALP had placed the needs of the so-called preference whisperers above the average voter.

    “The counting of a ballot paper should reflect the intention of a voter and not the desires of ballot manipulators.”]

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/gary-gray-mounts-case-for-senate-vote-changes-before-saying-he-wont-vote-for-them-20160224-gn28go.html#ixzz413HrpWun

  30. Good on Bill Shorten for his comments to Cory Bernardi. I don’t think any federal Labor leader has shown such a determined and consistent advocacy for LGBTI rights as Shorten has.

  32. ‘Confused, chaotic and contradictory’ Turnbull describes his understanding of Labor’s proposals and the impact. Also, reflects the Government’s response.

  33. davidwh

    [Gilly for PM has a nice ring to it.]

    I was very doubtful about him when he was appointed to the Australia Council but he proved me wrong.

  37. Turncoat is, to the extent that his waffle can be deciphered, rapidly depleting his political capital in this ridiculous scare campaign. Utterly dishonest man.

  38. Has Phillip Adams been lurking on PB and reading my posts about Malcolm Turnbull? 😀

    Phillip Adams ‏@PhillipAdams_1 24m24 minutes ago

    Malcolm Abbott?Tony Turnbull?Like Jeckyl and Hyde different sides of same coin,same person.(Has anyone ever seen them together?)

  40. TPOF,
    Bernard Keane’s opinion:

    Bernard Keane ‏@BernardKeane 5m5 minutes ago

    Turnbull really is rotten at scare campaigns, isn’t he. This is dreadful #qt

    🙂

  41. Asher Lou
    [And that is yet another reason why I support these reforms. I don’t want to have to choose between numbering 50+ boxes or worrying about the Greens sending my preferences off to very strange places.]
    Best reason so far. You’ve almost convinced me.

  42. [ CTar1

    Posted Wednesday, February 24, 2016 at 2:12 pm | Permalink

    SK

    Re Eastern Europeans and WW2
    I sometimes get flashbacks of Antony Beevor’s descriptions of what the Ukrainians (siding wit the Germans) did. Not to mention what the Germans did, and the Russians.

    I’ve read Beevor’s Berlin – very depressing!

    But I’m a glutton for punishment so have just started Ian Kershaws’ “The End”. Same subject.

    ]

    There is a rather confronting documentary on youtube titled “Hellstorm “- and what happened in Germany towards the end and after WW2 I do not necessarily agree/disagree with ANY of the points made in the documentary – some must be true and some are outright lies.

    There has been so many ‘revisionists’ from ALL sides – its not always possible to know WHO is telling the ABSOLUTE truth …. you decide …

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qkQ6J5F01Do

  44. Peg
    [iirc a reason PUP was preferenced before the two majors by the Greens was because of his stance on asylum seekers.]
    I get it. That’s more important than an existential threat to the planet.

  46. davidwh
    [ratsack regarding my expectations of Turnbull they have been modified somewhat so far in 2016.]
    Is that a polite way of saying “crashed and burned”?

  50. Lulz 🙂

    Malcolm Farr ‏@farrm51 3m3 minutes ago

    Suicide run by Labor’s Conroy and Watts, tossed out for toy unicorn as Treasurer Morrison started answer.

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