Newspoll: 50-50

Newspoll drops a bombshell with a poll showing Labor drawing level with the Coalition on two-party preferred.

The Australian has a surprise in store tomorrow, with the latest Newspoll survey showing the two parties at level pegging on two-party preferred, wiping out a 53-47 lead to the Coalition at the last poll three weeks ago. The Coalition is down three on the primary vote to 43%, Labor is up one to 35%, and the Greens are up one to 12%. This has been reflected in personal ratings, with Malcolm Turnbull down five on approval to 48% and up seven on disapproval to 38%, while Bill Shorten is up three on approval to 28% and down three on disapproval to 57%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister narrows from 59-20 to 55-21. The poll also finds 47% support for Labor’s negative gearing plan, with 31% opposed and 22% undecided. It was conducted Thursday to Sunday by Galaxy Research from a sample of 1807, contacted online and through automated phone polling. UPDATE: Also from Newspoll are results on “words used to describe the leaders” and “best leader to handle issues.

Note that there are a further two new posts beneath this one, one providing a forum for discussion on Senate reform and double dissolution talk separate from the main thread, the other being the return of Seat of the Week.

UPDATE (Roy Morgan): Roy Morgan finds no change on a much improved result for Labor a fortnight ago, with the Coalition again leading 52.5-47.5 on both respondent-allocated and previous-election measures of two-party preferred. The primary votes are Coalition 43.5% (steady), Labor 29.5% (up 0.5%) and Greens 15% (down one). The poll was conducted by face-to-face and SMS over the past two weekends from a sample of 3116.

UPDATE 2 (Essential Research): Essential Research is steady at 52-48 to the Coalition, but Labor’s primary vote has bounced back two points to 35% after dropping the same amount last week – unusually volatile behaviour for this series, which provides a rolling average of two weekly results. The Coalition is up a point to 44%, with the Greens down one to 10%. The most interesting of the supplementary questions divided the sample into two halves and asked a separate question on negative gearing: a straight one on reform “so that, for future purchases, investors can only claim tax deductions for
investments in newly built homes”, and another attributing the policy to Labor. The switch made surprisingly little difference: the former had 38% approval and 28% disapproval, the latter 37% and 32%, with moderate variations between Labor and Coalition voters cancelling out in the totals. Other results find 31% approval and 54% disapproval of cutting Sunday penalty rates in hospitality, entertainment and retail, and grim assessments on the health of the economy and respondents’ financial wellbeing – only company profits perceived as having improved over the past year, and very large majorities rating that the cost of living has worsened. The poll was conducted online, over two weeks from a sample of 2017 in the case of voting intention, and Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1002 for the rest.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,223 comments on “Newspoll: 50-50”

  1. Trump is actually quite a bit to the left of Cruz and Rubio, but he’s so explosively unpredictable he’s the last of them I’d want as President.

    Unfortunately I have to hope for him getting the nomination as I think Clinton has the best chance against him. Rubio or Kasich would be a real problem for her.

  2. So… the only way to beat a bonkers populist is to try to find one of your own?

    I think you over-think the way people approach their vote. But we’ll see. I think Sanders would be completely neutered from day one, even if he gets a Democratic congress, it won’t be as left as him (noting that Sanders hasn’t raised a penny for Democratic races down-ticket, whereas Hillary has raised $15 million. I think the stakes are too high to treat THIS moment as the “if not now, when?!?” moment.

    But we’ll see. I’ll support Sanders, but with great concern and expecting a significant loss, as someone who has lived in the US and know how it ticks… Sanders is selling something the American people won’t buy.

  3. ‘I love poorly educated’ by Donold Trump comment reminds me of Joe Hockeys comments.

    Reminds me how stupid USA is if they vote Trump to be President.

  4. I recall seeing several polls indicating that Sanders was actually more electable than Clinton for any given Republican opponent. So it seems to be an establishment myth that the Dems should choose Hillary to avoid a Republican. Trump in particular I imagine would be able to hammer her for being bought by Wall St.

  5. Yeah, the “electability” line is just an establishment myth. Voters are nowhere near as ideological as some pundits think, just want someone believable to offer solutions that sound fair and proportionate to how frustrated they feel.

  6. I read this on apologies, and it uses President Clinton as an example. It set me to thinking about those wishy washy “sorry if you were offended’ apologies we get from our pollies, particulary Coalition MPs from my observation.

    Now PM Rudd’s Apology to the Stolen Generations was sincere and genuine, and I believe it projected that sincerity.

    And may the rotten stinkers who boycotted it be covered in shame forever.

  7. Millennial @2210:

    [If you’re talking about general election match-ups, beware: those polls are accurate, but not predictive.]

    Indeed. Clinton’s already-awful numbers could get worse. They’re unlikely to get better, given how transparently deceitful her campaign has been thus far, the probe being run by the FBI into her private email servers and her ethical issues more generally.

  8. [ Cracks appear in Coalition as tax plans founder

    As the government struggled again on Wednesday to get its lines straight on tax policy, sources said there was an uneasy mood between Mr Turnbull and Mr Morrison on Sunday night when the cabinet met at The Lodge for dinner, and the government’s general political situation and its derailed tax reform plans were discussed.

    “It was about ‘how did we get into this mess?'” said a source, who added that the discussion then moved to trying to agree on a way forward.

    One source said the atmosphere during the cabinet meeting on Monday night, held after a Newspoll showing Labor and the Coalition tied at 50 per cent on the two-party preferred vote, was businesslike ….

    That same meeting did resolve that the government stick to its original plan and release its tax policy in the May 10 budget, and not be spooked into putting it out earlier.

    ….there was still a belief that Labor leader Bill Shorten was unelectable.

    Friends of Mr Morrison say he is being unfairly blamed for the tax plans running off the rails…..

    “Scott was just doing his job and ….. “Howard would never have done that to Costello.”

    One MP said the backbench feared Mr Turnbull was panicking and “needs to make a decision”.

    Multiple Coalition MPs confided they have been deflated this week by the government’s performances in Parliament…..

    On Monday, Mr Turnbull ruled out any changes to capital gains tax “whatsoever”, only to have to backtrack on Tuesday….

    On Wednesday,…..Kelly O’Dwyer misspoke …..and said Labor’s policy would cause house prices to increase. Mr Turnbull argues house prices will be “smashed”. ]

  9. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Peter Martin says Turnbull has all but walked away from tax reform. Is it clearing the decks for the mother of all scare campaigns he wonders.
    Martin goes on to say Turnbull will squib tax reform because he’s terrified by it.
    More on this theme from Mark Kenny.
    The property industry’s mining tax style negative gearing campaign will be a test for democracy.
    Nick Xenophon goes in hard against the owner of the Wendy’s franchising outfit for bring a “corporate cannibal”. (Google the string below).
    “Days of Our Lives”, sorry “The Margaret Cunneen Story”. continues apace. No wonder she didn’t want the contents of the intercept tapes released.
    If the graphs in this article on the housing bubble don’t appear as props in QT today I’ll be surprised.
    Andrew Denton asks why we are so scared of euthanasia.
    Tony Wright on the Bernardi/Shorten clash.
    Here’s “View from the Street” on said slap down and several other topical issues.

  10. Section 2 . . .

    Judith Ireland tells us why the Safe Schools program is in place.
    Meanwhile The Guardian calls out Abetz for lying on the extent of concern in schools about the anti-bullying program. But that’s Eric isn’t it.
    The Supreme Court rules that Father John Fleming is a “criminal, moral coward” as it dismisses Fleming’s defamation suit against The Advertiser.
    How will the proposed senate voting rules affect your vote?,8711
    A lawyer who represented a victim of clergy abuse in Ballarat says that Pell must provide answers to the questions that will be asked of him.
    Now Immigration wants to arm it’s officers with stun guns!
    This is what happens to your food before you eat it.
    It’s now down to Rubio to trump Trump.
    Trump is surfing in on waves of anger in the electorate.
    Paul Sheehan with a standard-setting apology piece.

  11. Section 3 . . . with Cartoon Corner

    How stupid can some mothers get?
    Ron Tandberg knows how to put a simple cartoon together.×0.gn2i13.png/1456323964948.jpg
    John Spooner (judging from the style) takes us into the bedroom at the lodge with Malcolm and Lucy.×349.gn1xrw.png/1456321171181.jpg
    Alan Moir continues his fun at the expense of Turnbull’s tax policy woes.×628.gjrcxr.png/1456292583558.jpg
    Ron Tandberg on the Freudian misuse of a particular word.×400.fixc.png/1456266836465.jpg
    David Pope readies us for the Defence White Paper.
    Mark Knight with a rather graphic cartoon on the Melbourne bus crash.
    There’s a lot to see in this effort from David Rowe!×414.png/1456297373019.jpg
    And in this one that appeared late yesterday.

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