Newspoll: 50-50

Newspoll drops a bombshell with a poll showing Labor drawing level with the Coalition on two-party preferred.

The Australian has a surprise in store tomorrow, with the latest Newspoll survey showing the two parties at level pegging on two-party preferred, wiping out a 53-47 lead to the Coalition at the last poll three weeks ago. The Coalition is down three on the primary vote to 43%, Labor is up one to 35%, and the Greens are up one to 12%. This has been reflected in personal ratings, with Malcolm Turnbull down five on approval to 48% and up seven on disapproval to 38%, while Bill Shorten is up three on approval to 28% and down three on disapproval to 57%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister narrows from 59-20 to 55-21. The poll also finds 47% support for Labor’s negative gearing plan, with 31% opposed and 22% undecided. It was conducted Thursday to Sunday by Galaxy Research from a sample of 1807, contacted online and through automated phone polling. UPDATE: Also from Newspoll are results on “words used to describe the leaders” and “best leader to handle issues.

Note that there are a further two new posts beneath this one, one providing a forum for discussion on Senate reform and double dissolution talk separate from the main thread, the other being the return of Seat of the Week.

UPDATE (Roy Morgan): Roy Morgan finds no change on a much improved result for Labor a fortnight ago, with the Coalition again leading 52.5-47.5 on both respondent-allocated and previous-election measures of two-party preferred. The primary votes are Coalition 43.5% (steady), Labor 29.5% (up 0.5%) and Greens 15% (down one). The poll was conducted by face-to-face and SMS over the past two weekends from a sample of 3116.

UPDATE 2 (Essential Research): Essential Research is steady at 52-48 to the Coalition, but Labor’s primary vote has bounced back two points to 35% after dropping the same amount last week – unusually volatile behaviour for this series, which provides a rolling average of two weekly results. The Coalition is up a point to 44%, with the Greens down one to 10%. The most interesting of the supplementary questions divided the sample into two halves and asked a separate question on negative gearing: a straight one on reform “so that, for future purchases, investors can only claim tax deductions for
investments in newly built homes”, and another attributing the policy to Labor. The switch made surprisingly little difference: the former had 38% approval and 28% disapproval, the latter 37% and 32%, with moderate variations between Labor and Coalition voters cancelling out in the totals. Other results find 31% approval and 54% disapproval of cutting Sunday penalty rates in hospitality, entertainment and retail, and grim assessments on the health of the economy and respondents’ financial wellbeing – only company profits perceived as having improved over the past year, and very large majorities rating that the cost of living has worsened. The poll was conducted online, over two weeks from a sample of 2017 in the case of voting intention, and Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1002 for the rest.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,223 comments on “Newspoll: 50-50”

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  1. Whilst I agree with Gary Gray on the substance, seriously Gary just Fuark the hell off and take your mining industry sinecures where you can slag off Labor (along with M’arn) til your heart’s content.

    You got out voted in Cabinet and Caucus. Suck it the funk up princess. Every Labor MP has to cop that on multiple occasions (as do all Libs and Nats). But they don’t go and have a big whinge about it in the House. Especially when Labor’s got the Coalition ragged and on the run.

    Gray seems to think because he’s not re-contesting he can go off reservation and there’s nothing anyone can do about it. It’s a dog act and incredibly disloyal. Good riddance.

  2. Ratsak

    I agree 100%

    I am stunned by just how weak a porition Mal is in. Nikolic as chair of the security committee is the absolute last straw.

    Mal may as well quit.

  3. LU@1891: it’s difficult to predict, but possible that investing in new geared rental housing could become the preserve only of the highest income earners. Meanwhile, if the value of second-hand housing falls, and this were to be skewed towards the bottom end of the market (which it most likely would be), then the net housing wealth of most middle to low income earners would decline.

    And, of course, the possibility of rising rents can’t be ruled out.

    I’m not saying all of this would certainly happen, but it might. We need to see detailed modelling.

  4. Sustainable future@1889

    will all parliamentarians using negative gearing to reduce their tax bills have to abstain from voting on a related bill? Would all those using super concessions to do the same also have to abstain? I imagine a very empty upper and lower house if there were rulings to that effect.

    It’ll be interesting to see what would happen if the federal parliament adopt the same policy that local government does (at least in Victoria) where those with interests have to abstain from voting. Can you imagine if those with interests in certain mining companies have to abstain from mining related legislation?

  5. [Turnbull has the right idea: just keep going on about falling house prices.]

    I think that you should apply for the position of his political advisor. This would be a great benefit to Labor.

  6. from zoidlord at 1855 with link

    [ABS Wage Price Index: 2015 ends with lowest wage growth on record]

    Its class war.
    The rich are winning.
    And they’re puppets and clones in the COALition and media want them to win faster.
    Hence GST, support for negative gearing [see 1880 as to why], attacks on unions and so on.

    Shameful.

  7. @ratsak

    The likes of Gary Gray and McFarlane saying WTTE of “if I can no longer be in Cabinet, what’s the point of standing?” sounds like an insult to their constituents and MPs who does a lot for their constituents IMO.

  8. http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/postcolonial-blog/2016/feb/22/our-major-cultural-institutions-are-in-crisis-and-our-history-is-being-militarised?CMP=share_btn_tw

    [Efficiency dividend? How utterly imbued the public discourse has become with the narcoleptic anti-language of bureaucratese.

    It’s a funding cut, announced in the last midyear economic and fiscal outlook, that slashed $36m from “cultural and collecting entities” – except the Australia Council – in the commonwealth arts portfolio. This translates to about $20m from the combined budgets of six major cultural institutions – the National Museum of Australia, National Portrait Gallery, Museum of Australian Democracy, National Film and Sound Archive, National Gallery of Australia and National Library – over the next four years. It compounded another cut delivered in the 2015/16 budget.

    It’s instructive, I think, that the Australian War Memorial, which is both a collecting institution and a shrine (but administered by the Department of Veterans’ Affairs) faces no such cut from the latest midyear forecast. Indeed, preceding the federal government’s $330m-plus Anzac 100 commemorative frenzy, $32m was spent on upgrading the memorial’s galleries.

    Meanwhile, the federal government is spending more than $100m on a questionable Anzac “interpretive centre” in France. The 50,000-plus Australians who died on the European western front in the first world war are already appropriately memorialised at Villers-Bretonneux and elsewhere.

    This all alludes, of course, to an ever increasing militarisation of Australian history at the expense of other narratives – the peaceful transition to a federation, the murders of tens of thousands of Indigenous Australians, the significant role of women, for example – that also define national foundation.]

  9. [ There are fewer flags, but. ]

    Damn..there goes Abbott’s plan for a flag making led economic recovery. Prices of flags will go up to the extent that nurses and fireies cant afford them any more…..

  10. https://theconversation.com/politics-podcast-senator-david-leyonhjelm-on-malcolm-turnbull-55299

    [Liberal Democrat senator David Leyonhjelm has accused Malcolm Turnbull of failing to live up to his promise to liaise closely with the Senate crossbenchers.

    As the “micro” players react furiously to the government’s proposed Senate voting changes, Leyonhjelm tells Michelle Grattan he has not heard from Turnbull since his call in his first week as prime minister. Despite the “reservoir of goodwill” he enjoyed on taking over, Turnbull did not follow through.

    The Coalition government has been appallingly bad at negotiating with the crossbenchers, Leyonhjelm says. Unlike the Gillard government, which negotiated successfully with lower house crossbenchers, the Abbott and Turnbull governments never learnt how to do it.]

  11. Re Eastern Europeans and WW2
    I sometimes get flashbacks of Antony Beevor’s descriptions of what the Ukrainians (siding wit the Germans) did. Not to mention what the Germans did, and the Russians.

  12. Meher

    I would not be so precious. There is abundant evidence of people newly recruited to a cause being the strongest advocates. Born again Christians, some converts to Judaism etc are often the most passionate about the cause.

    Same for people newly elevated in class staus (Hyacinth Bucket). They put on the most airs and graces.

    There is of course some suggestion that Hitler himslef was part Jewish.

  13. [Former Australian cricket star Adam Gilchrist, widely regarded as the greatest ever wicket keeper-batsman, is set to be approached by the Liberal party to run as a “celebrity candidate” at this year’s federal election.

    BuzzFeed News understands NSW Liberal party officials want Gilchrist to run in a marginal western Sydney seat, courting ethnically diverse communities at the federal election.

    “He’s known to be good friend and ally of the Liberal Party. He’s been encouraged to come into the fold,” said a party source.

    “He’s always been very helpful to the party, and often comes to Parliament to visit MPs.”

    Senior NSW Liberals think that drafting Gilchrist would be a gamechanger with large ethnic groups of Indian, Sri Lankan and Bangladeshi people in western Sydney. It’s hoped his rockstar status in world cricket would propel him into office.]

    http://www.buzzfeed.com/aliceworkman/gilly-gilly-gilly#.txjNjp54ZO

  14. Zoomster
    [I will not hear an adverse word spoken about Guilias]
    I did not say an adverse word. I merely told a true story.

    I decided never to drive (or be driven in) that car again but have been told it has not repeated its antics since. A one off.

    Up until that point, it was a fun drive.

  15. Thanks MB,

    I’m genuinely trying to work out where your concerns are.

    [LU@1891: it’s difficult to predict, but possible that investing in new geared rental housing could become the preserve only of the highest income earners. ]

    Why would the price of new housing remain high if it could not be sold at that price? The owners of a development site could be in for a loss if they cannot sell at their desired price, but I have very little sympathy for land-bankers.

    [Meanwhile, if the value of second-hand housing falls, and this were to be skewed towards the bottom end of the market (which it most likely would be), then the net housing wealth of most middle to low income earners would decline.]

    First of all, the value of established housing in Sydney and Melbourne is massively skewed up by the value of property in the inner-city residential belts. Think eastern, inner west and lower north shore Sydney – that is not the bottom end of the market. Yes, there is a big problem growing further out in the big cities, and much worse in the regions, but prices in these markets are collapsing on their own as demand dries up. Moranbah seems to be a prominent example in the media atm.

    Second, the link between net changes to the level of housing wealth and demand appears to be broken, at least on the way up. I don’t doubt there will be some pull-back in demand if property prices decline. I fail to see how this will affect those already paying off large mortgages taken out to purchase in an inflated market, as they are already stretched and will remain so regardless of market price changes. Such is the debt-yoke they’ve chosen to lower on themselves.

    That is all ceteris paribus, because if we see an external shock in the meantime, demand cloud collapse all around us and precipitate a housing market collapse without any policy changes.

    [And, of course, the possibility of rising rents can’t be ruled out.]

    We disagree on this, and I don’t think there’s much more to be said.

    [I’m not saying all of this would certainly happen, but it might. We need to see detailed modelling.]

    Well it’s hard to disagree on that.

    However, I think there are bigger dynamics at play, regarding foreign debt and exchange rate risk and the ballooning terms of trade deficit, which will cause the property market to collapse at some stage. Maybe Labor’s policy will bring this forward, but maybe that is a good thing if the overall magnitude of the collapse is lessened.

  16. At the moment we can only judge Labors NG/CGT policy against the status quo (because lets face it Mal is gonna squib that one too). Arguing about if hypothetical proposal X is better than Labor’s policy is pretty pointless. Yeah I’m sure we could come up with better plans (MB and I are pretty much as one on indexing CGT discount rather than a single flat rate).

    But guess what? We aren’t going to get that option. It’s Labor or bust. So even if Labor’s position is sub optimal you need to answer two questions before saying you should not vote Labor at the next election over this issue.

    1. Is Labor’s position an improvement on the status quo?

    It is perfectly reasonable to argue it isn’t and provide a counter argument. In the end the arguments for and against are political, not economic. You can claim certain economic effects and even model them based on your specially selected assumptions built into the model, but you can’t claim certainty. Every change brings unknowables (as does the status quo). We can make guesstimates and even informed guesstimates, but we can’t know for sure one way or the other.

    Simply grabbing onto the worst case scenario has no more validity than grabbing onto the best case. All we can do is estimate likelihoods of different scenarios and expect that something much like the most likely scenario will eventuate.

    On balance I support the proposals because to my mind they seem most likely to have the long term effect of slowing unsustainable growth in housing prices by slightly lowering artificial demand and also by accelerating construction of new stock slightly. There could be areas of the market where prices actually do fall (GC apartments may indeed be susceptible), but a wholesale crash of the residential market is just as unlikely as the proposal creating sunshine, lollypops and rainbows.

    2. Is the proposal so bad that Labor should punished?

    This question is a bit more meta, but it is important. Shorten and Labor have done something no opposition has done for over 20 years. The last opposition to get out with significant detailed policies that did have identifiable losers lost the ‘unloseable’ election. The lesson taken from that has been stay a small target, bullshit your way into office, and deal with the fall out once you get in. My personal opinion was that this was the wrong lesson, and the real lesson was we don’t want your US style health system and IR, but that wasn’t what the pollies took away from it.

    If Labor can’t at least run this a very close thing (say losing with a +50 2pp) then that wrong lesson will be reinforced and I think that is a very bad thing for our democracy. Sure if you come to the conclusion that the opposition’s policies are just terribly destructive (as I did with Fightback in 93) you vote against them. But if they are really no worse than neutral and the government continues to offer nothing better Labor should come in for very serious consideration. Doubly so if you think Labor’s policy needs to go further. If you vote down the good waiting for the great you generally end up with nothing. (Hello ETS!, Hello Republic).

    With millions of voters all having different opinions of what is ‘RIGHT’ none of us will ever get the ‘perfect’. But if we reward oppositions that propose reforms and allow these to be heavily critiqued long before elections are called we will tend to get better politics that focuses on developing better policies rather than smear FUD personality and lies.

    Shorten should be applauded for not playing the tired old small target game and actually filling Turnbull’s policy black hole with ideas.

  17. Simon Katich@1922

    Zoomster

    I will not hear an adverse word spoken about Guilias


    I did not say an adverse word. I merely told a true story.

    I decided never to drive (or be driven in) that car again but have been told it has not repeated its antics since. A one off.

    Up until that point, it was a fun drive.

    Sounds like you overheated the brakes.

  18. [24.WWP, briefly and others: your eloquent assertions of the criticality of the survival of micro party rolling preference deals to the continuing health of our democracy are admirable.

    But do try to leave yourselves a little bit of wriggle room in case Labor decides to back down from its oppositional stance.
    ]

    Firstly you should try to respond to things I have asserted rather than just make up your own, I know it is easier in your own head to win a debate if you setup your imaginary positions, ascribe them to others, and then brilliantly demolish your own imagination. But once the self congratulations subsides (I know it takes sometime) you’ve got nada.

    Secondly my objection to the pisspoor logic that dominates this debate began when I thought labor was on board and would continue if labor gets back on board. You wouldn’t have noticed this because you fabricated that my position was based on labors position, as one of your little straw men. Obviously you forgot it was a lie you constructed rather than reality.

  19. James Massola ‏@jamesmassola 24m24 minutes ago

    Interesting to compare today’s government talking points on super & CGT vs yesterday, on CGT only

  20. bemused,
    i know the road well, barely used the brakes. But it is the logical conclusion. Maybe the handbrake was faulty and slightly on? Who knows.

  21. What did Gary Gray say?

    [12:11pm: Mr Gray, who will not recontest his seat at the election, says it is “sad” that his party has taken the position it has but that’s the way politics work and he will not vote against the legislation.
    “In speaking to this bill I speak frankly to the house in that I lost the debate internally,” Mr Gray says.
    “Senate reform remains an issue for the future….how an elector marks their ballot paper is how that ballot paper should be counted. The counting of the ballot paper should reflect the intent of the voter.”

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/the-pulse-live/politics-live-february-24-2016-20160223-gn1w1b.html#ixzz4137zfA00
    Follow us: @smh on Twitter | sydneymorningherald on Facebook]

  22. Simon Katich@1930

    bemused,
    i know the road well, barely used the brakes. But it is the logical conclusion. Maybe the handbrake was faulty and slightly on? Who knows.

    I can’t think of any other possibility.

    I always use my gears going downhill so I hardly touch the brakes.

    And I have had a handbrake slightly on causing a problem.

  23. ratsak@1932

    What did Gary Gray say?

    12:11pm: Mr Gray, who will not recontest his seat at the election, says it is “sad” that his party has taken the position it has but that’s the way politics work and he will not vote against the legislation.
    “In speaking to this bill I speak frankly to the house in that I lost the debate internally,” Mr Gray says.
    “Senate reform remains an issue for the future….how an elector marks their ballot paper is how that ballot paper should be counted. The counting of the ballot paper should reflect the intent of the voter.”

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/the-pulse-live/politics-live-february-24-2016-20160223-gn1w1b.html#ixzz4137zfA00
    Follow us: @smh on Twitter | sydneymorningherald on Facebook

    Can’t say I disagree with him, but I wouldn’t have said it if I was him. STFU is sometimes the best policy.

  24. On WWP’s point about microparties:

    All they have to do to ensure that one of their group gets elected over a larger party, is put all the large parties last.

    It’s not that hard and it is a valid way to preference if one doesn’t want a large party to get the seat.

  25. [Interesting to compare today’s government talking points on super & CGT vs yesterday, on CGT only]

    So Shorten has forced yet another retreat from Jellyback.

  26. bemused,
    they dont teach the kiddies that anymore. They teach them to use the brakes in modern cars.

    Makes no sense to me. I like a gear that allows me to feel the engine, sit lower to the road and ready to help me get out of a corner.

  27. Gary Gray also said:

    [12:07pm: He is taking particular issue with the argument made by people such as his colleague Sam Dastyari.

    “I’m astounded that the dumb view that if you vote for someone who loses your vote is wasted,” Mr Gray says.

    “It’s simply untrue.”

    These reform are not designed to stifle or prevent the formation of new parties,” Mr Gray says.

    But all candidates “will have to convince the public rather than back room deal makers that they deserve the public’s vote,” Mr Gray says.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/the-pulse-live/politics-live-february-24-2016-20160223-gn1w1b.html#ixzz413BHsoLt

  28. Sk

    You caught the car – bloody spoilsport!

    I had a look at Norton Summit Road via Youtube. It looks like fun.

    I have a couple of favorite uphills – Robertson Mountain near Kiama (my Merc has heaps of torque and eats it) and Menton to the Col de Castillon in France (700m up in less than 5ks! (both also on Youtube).

  29. [Can’t say I disagree with him, but I wouldn’t have said it if I was him. STFU is sometimes the best policy.]

    Like I said I don’t disagree on the substance either. But were I a shadow minister I wouldn’t be going into the house giving the media an opening to scream ‘disunity’ even if I were a few months away from retiring from politics.

    You win or lose your battles in caucus. Once it’s settled by caucus keep your negativity to yourself. No one is saying he had to get up in Parliament and sing the praises of the caucus decision as though it were manna from heaven. If you don’t want to go full Pyne and argue every single decision of your party is the greatest thing ever, just say you will be supporting it and STFU.

  30. Its going to be a good question time. Someone in the LNP is bound to refer to Shorten calling Bernadi a homophobe.

    shanebazzi: .@corybernardi not name calling, it’s a fact. You are a homophobe

    Thats a free hit for Labor on equality respect for human dignity and why the LNP is all wrong might even make a great SSO.

    A great chance to reinforce to voters exactly how hollow Turnbull really is with his backdown on SSM.

  31. [Makes no sense to me. I like a gear that allows me to feel the engine, sit lower to the road and ready to help me get out of a corner.]

    The only thing I use the sports mode on my car’s auto is to do just that going down steep hills.

  32. So Bernardi dishes out an insult to Shorten and when Shorten returns fire, he has a sook. Bully and coward comes to mind

    [Cory Bernardi
    Cory Bernardi – Verified account ‏@corybernardi

    It’s disappointing someone seeking to be PM resorts to name calling when confronted with a different policy view. @billshortenmp
    6:45 PM – 23 Feb 2016
    17 RETWEETS9 LIKES]

  33. [ Re Eastern Europeans and WW2
    I sometimes get flashbacks of Antony Beevor’s descriptions of what the Ukrainians (siding wit the Germans) did. Not to mention what the Germans did, and the Russians. ]

    Years ago i spoke to my OH’s aunt by marriage about that. She was a 15 year old German living near the Polish border at the end of WWII when the Russians were coming. She, and her mother got out, leaving everything behind, (with der Fuhrers framed photo left face down on the floor) and the fear and hardship she went trough were very confronting hear about.

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