Fairfax-Ipsos: 52-48 to Coalition

The first Ipsos poll in three months provides more evidence of a slippage in support for Malcolm Turnbull and the Coalition government.

The latest Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers is another weaker result for the Coalition, whose two-party lead of 52-48 compares with 56-44 at the previous such poll in mid-November. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down four points to 44%, Labor is up three to 32% and the Greens are up two to 15%. Malcolm Turnbull takes a solid hit on his still very strong personal ratings, with approval down seven to 62% and disapproval up eight to 24%. Bill Shorten is little changed on 30% approval (up one) and 55% disapproval (down two), and his deficit on preferred prime minister has narrowed slightly, from 69-18 to 64-19. The poll was conducted Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1403.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,969 comments on “Fairfax-Ipsos: 52-48 to Coalition”

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  1. [James Campbell @J_C_Campbell
    Tim Wilson to quit as Human Rights Commissioner & run for Goldstein. @timwilsoncomau #auspol]

    Oh colour me surprised!

  2. Jack A Randa@97

    Bebothered: “Shelling is not bombing.” Technically true, but if you’re on the receiving end would it make any difference? Something goes bang and shrapnel flies everywhere and buildings and people are broken either way.

    Yo may have missed our earlier conversation when this was an issue and she asserted Turkish planes were dropping bombs as opposed to artillery fire.

    I can find nothing in the media to support that claim.

  3. [James Campbell @J_C_Campbell
    Tim Wilson to quit as Human Rights Commissioner & run for Goldstein. @timwilsoncomau #auspol]

    How is Turnbull meant to make the LNP cuddly if the IPA start infiltrating?

  4. [I stubbed my toe before – clearly a sign that Bill Shorten isn’t cutting through and needs to be replaced as soon as possible.]

    I got a splinter today. Bloody Shorten.

  5. [James Campbell @J_C_Campbell
    Tim Wilson to quit as Human Rights Commissioner & run for Goldstein. @timwilsoncomau #auspol]

    From the ‘Well Derrrr!’ files pt 2

  7. [98
    William Bowe
    Tim Wilson to quit as Human Rights Commissioner & run for Goldstein.    ]

    The fact that this Government appointed one of its own flunkies HR Commissioner, is nothing less than utterly disgusting.

    If Triggs resigned from the HRC to run for pre-selection for a safe Labor seat, the LNP, shock-jocks and right-wing internet trolls would scream bloody murder.

  8. Actually Befuddled I did see the earlier exchange and I thought it just confirmed that you’re a greater pedant than Pedant, Ctar or myself.

  10. That would be the same Christian Porter who as WA Treasurer who managed to run up huge debt during a once in a lifetime mineral boom.

    Bit like the Federal tories who are close to doubling the debt and deficit they vowed to “pay down”.

  13. 108 continued – “Not that there’s anything wrong with that” as Seinfeld would say. I useta work with a bloke who, when you said “Bloody pedant”, would say “thank you”.

  14. Rexs’ diatribe is a example of ‘flanging’ with an emphasis on the little known ‘sucking air’ aspect of the particular art.

  15. LOL love this line from the Herald Sun article posted by William:

    [Mr Wilson, who was attacked by many on the Left of politics over his commitment to free speech]

    I wonder if Compact Crank will do a drive-by, accusing us all of being homophobic for attacking Wilson?

  16. This would be unfortunate.

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/feb/14/isis-fighter-khaled-sharrouf-may-still-alive?utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=GU+Today+AUS+v1+-+AUS+morning+mail+callout&utm_term=156660&subid=7122617&CMP=ema_632
    [Isis fighter Khaled Sharrouf may still be alive

    The Australian man reported to have been killed in a drone strike in Syria last year is believed to have been making threatening calls to people in Sydney over attempts by the NSW Crime Commission to seize his house, News Corp reports.

    “He wants to foster an image he’s dead,” a law enforcement official told News Corp.

    Sharrouf was thought to have been killed with his friend, Mohamed Elomar, in Syria in June 2015 after a drone strike, but Sharrouf’s death was initially uncertain after only Elomar’s body was found. Sharrouf’s daughter later reportedly said her father was dead.]

  18. 52
    Nicholas

    It only took Shorten Labor two years to bring about the removal of Abbott. We will dispose of the pretender, Turnbull, later this year.

    The LNP are unfit for office. This is plain as day. Not long now and they will be back where they rightfully belong – in Opposition.

  20. Jack A Randa@108

    Actually Befuddled I did see the earlier exchange and I thought it just confirmed that you’re a greater pedant than Pedant, Ctar or myself.

    I disagree.

    The use of air power by Turkey would be a significant escalation. That is the context in which DTT was making the claim.

    a 500Kg bomb does a lot more damage than a 155mm shell, not that I would want to be on the receiving end of either.

  22. dave @110

    [That would be the same Christian Porter who as WA Treasurer who managed to run up huge debt during a once in a lifetime mineral boom.]

    Considering that Rex Douglas has previously spruiked the likes of Paul Howes and Kristina Kenneally as potential federal Labor leaders, I’m not sure that’s something that would particularly concern him.

  27. Yes JimmyDoyle I saw that line about Wilson “defending free speech” too. Typical of a Murdoch paper to put that slant on it, and not qualify it by adding “even when the speech is grossly offensive and amounts to an incitement to racial hatred”.

  28. CTar1

    [That was a mighty justification for the UK taxpayer to invest in a fly by night colonial boy.]
    The British Italian Xerox relationship has never recovered from that episode 🙂

  29. Grattan, belatedly, almost as if it’s some kind of staggering revalation, acknowledging the ALP is back in the game:

    The government cannot afford to underestimate Labor on tax. Shadow Treasurer Chris Bowen and Shadow Assistant Treasurer Andrew Leigh, formerly an economics professor at the Australian National University, are proving a formidable team. Morrison increasingly will have to engage on the detailed ins and outs in disputing their policies.

    https://theconversation.com/government-leads-52-48-in-fairfax-ipsos-poll-as-tax-battle-turns-to-negative-gearing-54708

    When the MSM Press Gallery start having two bob each way you know the sentiment is starting to turn….

  30. Not that I want to get involved in another of befuddled’s pointless little bunfights, but at least two media outlets are reporting the Turkish action in Syria as “bombing”:

    [ http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/new-cold-war-inches-closer-7365344 ]

    [ http://www.dailysabah.com/diplomacy/2016/02/13/turkey-bombs-areas-held-by-ypg-in-syria-in-response-to-attacks-on-military-base-police-station ]

    I shall of course be sending stern letters of reprimand to their respective editors for this outrageous misrepresentation.

  31. Hell first I was told duplicate statement and can’t post now I see the article is still paywalled here whereas on twitter opens think will give up, the gerbils obviously don’t like me
    😀

  33. Well look at that – this is what happened when you announce policy, ALP.

    Talcum is a vacuous waffling head full of nice teeth. Policy and decisiveness show up all his weaknesses: namely, lack of policy and indecisiveness.

    The people behind him are the same revolting goon squad of the Abbott era, ie, about as popular as scabies.

    PS tell Bill to relax and talk normally. He’s doing that wooden thing Gillard did. Is there some common media adviser to blame here? Retire them

  36. I am not commenting on Wilson. Last time I did I spent a whole 20 minutes researching the crap job he was doing as commissioner and then blew a valve or two posting about it.

    So take this non-post, Tim B Wilson, and stick it in yer pipe and see how you like them apples.

  37. 129
    Rossmore

    I’ve been doing a bit of campaigning in Perth. Voters are really quite intent on changing the State Government. They are also receptive to appeals to change the Federal Government. The next election is going to be much closer than people expect and Labor should not be discounted – not at all.

    If there is even the slightest hint that Abbott may return or if the Liberals fail to deliver a credible and socially equitable budget, they will be in trouble.

  38. Dog, now I’m finding myself on Bebothered’s side – those two links P1 gave us make it pretty clear it’s the army shelling even though the word bombing is used in an early para in the Mirror.

  39. 132
    feeney

    The name that has been raised is Tim Hammond. He’s a lawyer, would make an impressive candidate….would have cross-factional support. But there may be others too.

  41. lefty e

    [ PS tell Bill to relax and talk normally. He’s doing that wooden thing Gillard did. Is there some common media adviser to blame here? Retire them ]

    I think Waffles should use him. Mal could do with a bit of 4×2 to shore up the old spine.

  42. Yeah, Shorten’s team has been tight, and releasing policy helps, but…

    It the economy. Look at the share market, check your superannuation statement, and so on.

    Having said that, please go ahead and blame the investment banker 🙂

  43. [They seek him here, they seek him there
    Those Frenchies seek him everywhere
    Is he in heaven or is he in hell?
    That demned elusive Showsy pimpernel]

  45. 136
    Simon Katich

    The Human Rights Commission will be much the better for Wilson’s departure. Tough luck for the voters of Goldstein if he becomes the designated Lib.

  46. Jack A Randa @ 127 – agreed. And as Judge Bromberg said in Eatock v Bolt, if Bolt had not named real individuals in his articles (and had he not made demonstrably false assertions about those individuals), then his articles would likely have been protected under s18 D of the Racial Discrimination Act, which protects freedom of expression – but you won’t ever hear the IPA acknowledge that.

  47. [144
    confessions

    briefly:

    Tim Hammond has been linked with the ALP in the past, yes?]

    Yes. I ran into him during the Canning Campaign. He is articulate, energetic, young…just what we need.

  49. lefty e@133

    Well look at that – this is what happened when you announce policy, ALP.

    Talcum is a vacuous waffling head full of nice teeth. Policy and decisiveness show up all his weaknesses: namely, lack of policy and indecisiveness.

    The people behind him are the same revolting goon squad of the Abbott era, ie, about as popular as scabies.

    PS tell Bill to relax and talk normally. He’s doing that wooden thing Gillard did. Is there some common media adviser to blame here? Retire them

    Well it would have been taken before the Negative Gearing announcement so maybe more to come.

  50. [please go ahead and blame the investment banker]

    Pretty sure the preferred spelling is with a ‘W’. Although as the meaning doesnt change, either spelling will do.

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