Fairfax-Ipsos: 52-48 to Coalition

The first Ipsos poll in three months provides more evidence of a slippage in support for Malcolm Turnbull and the Coalition government.

The latest Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers is another weaker result for the Coalition, whose two-party lead of 52-48 compares with 56-44 at the previous such poll in mid-November. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down four points to 44%, Labor is up three to 32% and the Greens are up two to 15%. Malcolm Turnbull takes a solid hit on his still very strong personal ratings, with approval down seven to 62% and disapproval up eight to 24%. Bill Shorten is little changed on 30% approval (up one) and 55% disapproval (down two), and his deficit on preferred prime minister has narrowed slightly, from 69-18 to 64-19. The poll was conducted Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1403.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,969 comments on “Fairfax-Ipsos: 52-48 to Coalition”

  1. 1950
    I could call you a moron but I stopped playing in the gutter a long time ago! On the other hand taking Labor’s idiocy to task needs to be and will be done. Probably during the election campaign when people will be watching.

  2. Wow! ScoMo is toast. just watching his interview on 7:30. Struggling, and nothing to say except to go over history as he sees it.

    Watching ScoMo fray at the edges over the next few weeks will be a delightful prelude to him imploding after the budget. ๐Ÿ™‚

  3. [ Leroy @Leroy_Lynch
    LNP MP found guilty of disclosing secret parliamentary committee business & then misleading QLD parliament about it http://www.news.com.au/national/breaking-news/qld-mp-found-in-contempt-of-parliament/news-story/30980799eee9b222751ce1e5176bdfa8 โ€ฆ
    6:57 PM – 17 Feb 2016
    Photo published for Qld MP found in contempt of parliament
    Qld MP found in contempt of parliament]
    Qld MP found in contempt of parliament
    news.com.au
    10 10 Retweets 2 2 likes

  4. Saw the Report on 7:30 about Pell / Minchin. ๐Ÿ™‚

    Minchin at his best. Good on him. And Vanstones comments? The creep can shove them right where the sun dont shine. ๐Ÿ™

  5. Morrison delivers empty speech devoid of vision

    ScoMo once lauded as a potential PM based on his “success” as Immigration Minister has shown himself to be way out of his depth as Treasurer. His only improvement on JoHo is that he doesn’t sweat when he gets flustered. He just motor mouths on. This may have worked with all the secrecy provisions he surrounded his ministerial accountability with but it won’t work with a national economy. You can’t run away from the market let alone hide from it.

    Konzentrationslager Kommandant doesn’t qualify you for Treasury, Scotty.

    https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/morrison-delivers-empty-speech-devoid-of-vision-032924571.html

  6. That dreaded ABC balance strikes again on another scientific matter, as reported in today’s Crikey:

    [One of Australia’s leading experts on the causes of cancer has rubbished last night’s ABC Catalyst program on whether the wi-fi in mobile phones causes brain tumours as “biased” and perhaps even “deceptive”.

    “My broad thoughts on the program is that it was scientifically bankrupt,” Professor Bernard Stewart told Crikey. “It was biased, and little short of misleading and deceptive.”

    “My anxiety about this is that by even commenting on it, Iโ€™m giving it oxygen.”]

    [The program’s central theme — that it is too soon to know the full effects of wi-fi on our brains and that caution is warranted — goes against the mainstream scientific opinion in Australia, and against the position of government agencies on the issue.

    The program relied heavily on the concerns of Davis, who was a member of a team of scientists that won the Nobel Peace Prize with Al Gore in 2007 for their work on climate change awareness. Davis says at the start of the program she initially laughed off concerns about the impact of wi-fi radiation on our brains. But the more she looked into the issue the more concerned she became.]

    [Last night’s Catalyst episode clearly stated the view of people like Davis was a contrary opinion not shared by many of Australia’s peak health bodies. Davis is a respectable if relatively lonely voice.

    Leigh Dayton, a veteran science reporter who worked at The Australian until 2012, tells Crikey science reporters do have a role in covering controversial positions in the scientific community, but the manner in which it is done matters. Scientific controversies, she says, can be presented as emerging issues, with appropriate weighting given to the various sides of an argument.

    Dayton hadn’t watched the program, but when approached by Crikey to comment on the difficulties of reporting on such issues, she quotes Australian health researcher Peter Doherty, who said: “You don’t give equal time to Nazis”, implying that not all viewpoints are equally valid and deserving of equal weight.]

    When will the penny drop (both here and among our elected members) that if you want quality public broadcasting that differentiates itself from the crap we get on the commercial networks, you gotta fund it appropriately. You pay peanuts etc…

  7. 1955
    Ah the Kouk. A big disgrace. Next times he’s on the business channel I hope he preaches these thoughts or relays his Labor loving tweets live on air. Although I remember the last time he did it he was ridiculed on live TV. Regardless his tweets and blogs certainly are not replicated on live broadcast.

  8. We fund schools
    We fund hospitals
    We fund roads
    We fund public transport
    We fund all the services taxpayers rely on.

    Every dollar spent on schools and health and all that stuff is a dollar that can’t be used to help out Liberal mates. Liberals regard all of the above as wasteful. Labor spends on these, so Labor is wasteful. That was the point of the 2014 budget.

  9. Silmaj @1936

    [Tax and force inflation exactly.]

    In the real world taxation removes money from the economy, which is of course deflationary (or disinflationary if you prefer).

    Where do they find these people?

  10. [ Where do they find these people? ]

    In a world of their own of course. ๐Ÿ™‚

    Where hard men like ScoMo tell you what to do, luverly men like Malcolm make you feel good, and all is well simply because they are in charge. ๐Ÿ™‚

    Take the pill….you know it makes sense.

  11. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Mark Kenny says Morrison is aiming low in his first budget.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/morrison-aims-low-in-first-preelection-budget-20160217-gmwea0.html
    The SMH was unimpressed with Morrison’s appearance at the NPC.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-editorial/scott-morrison-muddies-the-message-on-tax-reform-20160217-gmwjr8.html
    Gareth Hutchens on the CEDA report on the potentially difficult economic future in front of us.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/australias-economy-facing-hazards-unlike-any-see-in-20-years-ceda-20160217-gmwf6i.html
    James Massola writes about the failure of the Coalition’s workplace policies and the reactions from the usual boosters.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/the-coalitions-industrial-relations-policy-agenda-has-failed-20160217-gmwah4.html
    Ouch! Mehajer gets a $10m kick in the goolies.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/salim-mehajer-loses-millions-as-land-decisions-are-reversed-20160217-gmwtk6.html
    Adrian Piccoli nails it again.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/education/atar-charade-bring-back-student-caps-says-nsw-education-minister-adrian-piccoli-20160214-gmu1v3.html
    Pater FitzSimons on cutting a mate’s lunch.
    http://www.smh.com.au/sport/the-fitz-files/g-20160217-gmwoll.html
    And now it’s a councillor from Hurstvlle that shows why property developers should never be in local government.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/hurstville-councillor-con-hindi-investigated-for-misconduct-20160217-gmwqcy.html
    “View from the Street” wonders why the Greens are trying to kill themselves. Good question.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/view-from-the-street/view-from-the-street-say-why-are-the-greens-trying-to-kill-themselves-20160217-gmwlnp.html
    Peter Martin tells us that there is more than one way to kill negative gearing. How we tolerate institutionalised dishinesty.
    http://www.theage.com.au/comment/capital-gains-tax-theres-more-than-one-way-to-kill-negative-gearing-20160216-gmvict.html

  12. Section 2 . . .

    Now there’s smoke around the relationship between Cunneen and Fred Nile.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/margaret-cunneen-a-special-guest-at-fred-nile-political-fundraiser-20160216-gmvbdf.html
    With a simple tweet Jeb Bush exposes the American nightmare.
    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/feb/17/jeb-bush-gun-tweet-american-nightmare-gun-republican-trump
    A heartfelt piece from Kristina Keneally on the Tim Minchin song about Pell.
    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/feb/17/when-i-first-heard-tim-minchins-song-about-cardinal-pell-i-laughed-then-i-started-crying
    Some extraordinary results in blood cancer treatment give hope.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/health/extraordinary-results-in-blood-cancer-therapy-for-terminally-ill-patients-20160217-gmwi46.html
    Obama has faith in the US voters would ultimately make a sensible choice that will not be Donald Trump who, he says, simply does not have the temperament to do the job. He hits out at him in many ways.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/donald-trump-will-not-be-president-us-president-barack-obama-20160217-gmwy74.html
    Peter Martin on the Productivity Commission’s proposal to include part of the value of pensioners’ homes in the pension asset test.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/make-pensioners-rely-on-home-equity–productivity-commission-chief-20160217-gmwrnk.html
    Paul Sheehan and a sorry tale of dealing with Telstra’s customer service.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/a-sorry-tale-of-dealing-with-telstras-customer-service-20160216-gmw2ws.html
    Why Bronwyn Bishop deserve to stay on in parliament. See what you think.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/why-bronwyn-bishop-deserves-to-stay-on-as-an-mp-20160216-gmv5ds.html

  13. Section 3 . . . Cartoon Corner

    Alan Moir infers that Barnaby may not be a compliant companion for Turnbull.

    A sombre contribution from John Spooner.

    David Pope continues his good work with this one about Morrison’s budget development.

    Mark Knight and night time terrors for the Victorian Infrastructure Minister.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/ddd6712bd9b934fcbe7a3c6c86344373?width=1024&api_key=zw4msefggf9wdvqswdfuqnr5
    David Rowe takes us into the operating theatre with Scott Morrison.

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