Fairfax-Ipsos: 52-48 to Coalition

The first Ipsos poll in three months provides more evidence of a slippage in support for Malcolm Turnbull and the Coalition government.

The latest Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers is another weaker result for the Coalition, whose two-party lead of 52-48 compares with 56-44 at the previous such poll in mid-November. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down four points to 44%, Labor is up three to 32% and the Greens are up two to 15%. Malcolm Turnbull takes a solid hit on his still very strong personal ratings, with approval down seven to 62% and disapproval up eight to 24%. Bill Shorten is little changed on 30% approval (up one) and 55% disapproval (down two), and his deficit on preferred prime minister has narrowed slightly, from 69-18 to 64-19. The poll was conducted Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1403.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,969 comments on “Fairfax-Ipsos: 52-48 to Coalition”

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  1. Probs more resignations coming from Labor – the smart ones I guess.

    At least Labor still has Laurie Ferguson and Maria Vamvakinou to lead the fightback from opposition later this year.

  7. Hey William do you have a link ready to your fine work, I found myself on a train (obviously not to Ellenbrook) at the appropriate time and could not listen to gods own 7206WF when you were on it!

  8. WeWantPaul @ 1847

    “who at worst failed to stop others committing crimes must travel to Australia to give evidence A THIRD time”

    What an ignorant comment.
    Pell knowingly covered for and allowed paedophilic activities. He is directly responsible for the sexual abuse of hundreds if not thousands of Australian children.

    Yes, I am saying he knew absolutely that people in his charge were engaging in such activities and deliberately covered it up to protect the individuals, the church and more importantly his own career.

    It will all come out eventually – unfortunately a lot of the people who could bring it more directly to light are already dead from suicide and other tribulations brought about by their suffering (including members of my family).

    Having knowledge of a crime and the power to prevent it and choosing not to do so is exactly at the same level of misdeed as the crime itself. At least a paedophile might claim some mental disturbance – Pell just didn’t care about anyone else but himself and will absolutely rot in hell if such a place exists.

  9. No doubt bemused – I am sure there is still one or two United Voice union officials ready to serve the country in a higher calling, but Perth may not be a sure thing? Brand and Freo presumably any monkey will and can do.

  11. Main points I gleaned from listening to the interview between Leigh Sales and Scott Morrison:

    Big economic changes made thus far by the Turnbull government:
    * Innovation Statement
    * Multinational Tax laws passed by the parliament (? letting us know how little multinationals pay in tax is the only one I can think of)
    Then Morrison spoke about the:
    *Increasing burden on wage and salary earners (code for Bracket Creep. To which I might add that at least those people have a job & aren’t exploited)

    * Higher taxes (he said that a lot, as if ‘Tax’ is a dirty word when it is a necessary function of a decent society)

    * Expenditure restraint (he said this a lot too. It’s code for Austerity, or a dismantling of the New Deal Post WW2 Welfare State)

    * Lower expenditure, spending restraint (government cut to the bone)

    * Said Innovation was a massive change to the Economy (again, and no it hasn’t been)

    * States Competition policy/Productivity Payment system (this sems to be the policy arising out of the Federation White Paper that the Coalition are keeping under their hats)

    * The GST increase didn’t come up as a consideration by the federal government and was only raised by the States in August last year. (I wonder why? Not that I believe Morrison. Abbott & Hockey cut Health & Education in the 2014 Budget with the specific aim of bringing in a higher rate of the GST!)

    * Bracket Creep = An ‘Inflation Tax’ was a key meme

    Also it is important to point out that $80 Billion in Savings measures, which Morrison keeps rabbiting on about, means Schools and Hospitals miss out to fund Coalition spending predilections.

    Finally,

    * Only through restrained expenditure are we able to deliver a low tax outcome into the future. That is a clear priority.

    Who said that’s what we want!?!

  18. I watched the Morrison interview. His main points were “Labor Tax & Spend” and “we saved $80 billion”. It was quite bad, he is very hopeless, I laughed a lot, but he probably thought he did OK. Sales asked some good questions.

    He started his answer on the GST being ruled out by saying the Australian people wanted an adult conversation where nothing was ruled out. He then explained an adult conversation is the government saying any old thing, then figuring out for itself how silly it is, then explaining to the rest of us how silly it is, and then dropping it.

    Cynics might think it was a circle jerk that the rest of us didn’t need to go through.

  21. That’s the problem with the Liberal Party, their Elder MPs don’t know when to bail! The Pensioner from Mackellar is stuck to her chair in the House of Reps like Howard, with Araldite!

  22. If these things are winners, you’d have expected the Libs to go to the last election with “We’re going to slash services like Health and Education, but we’re also going to slash your taxes.”

    If they did, however, I missed it.

  25. bemused,

    ‘ I think Labor should correct the Libs by using the term ‘tax and fund’.’

    Great line! I’m going to pass it on. So should you.

  28. Tax and fund? Just brings up images of Gillard style “funds” as part of the deals with the Greens.

    Good one cotm please push ahead with that one – its a definite winner , to go with noodle nation and medicare gold.

  30. Revision of my post @1893

    I noted that once again today Morrison used the ‘tax and spend’ line against Labor.

    I think the choice of the word ‘spend’ is quite deliberately chosen to imply Labor is wasteful as in ‘spend thrifts’.

    I think Labor should correct the Libs by using the term ‘tax to fund’.

    We fund schools
    We fund hospitals
    We fund roads
    We fund public transport
    We fund all the services taxpayers rely on.

  31. Read that article by Tingle. She pretty much nails ScoMo. Libs are going to be in a poor position if they wait to spring stuff on people come budget time.

    And its curious. ScoMo claiming $80B in savings but as well they claim the $80B they took off the states never actually existed??

    They seem to have a somewhat ESJesque relationship with reality?

  34. [Just brings up images of Gillard style “funds” as part of the deals with the Greens.]

    I have no idea what you’re referring to, so it can’t have resonated with ordinary voters (or anyone, really).

  35. This is scott Morrison tweeting before going on 7.30. Is he taking the piss??

    [Scott Morrison
    Scott Morrison – Verified account ‏@ScottMorrisonMP

    About to speak to @leighsales on @abc730 about the Govts plan to back Australians in our transitioning economy. #auspol
    12:30 AM – 17 Feb 2016]
    3 RETWEETS4 LIKES

  36. Tax and fund waste exactly.
    Tax and fund infinite cost increases exactly.
    Tax and stuff economic growth exactly.
    Tax and force inflation exactly.
    Look forward to the election.

  37. bemused@1930

    Revision of my post @1893

    I noted that once again today Morrison used the ‘tax and spend’ line against Labor.

    I think the choice of the word ‘spend’ is quite deliberately chosen to imply Labor is wasteful as in ‘spend thrifts’.

    I think Labor should correct the Libs by using the term ‘tax to fund’.

    We fund schools
    We fund hospitals
    We fund roads
    We fund public transport
    We fund all the services taxpayers rely on.

    Maybe better still:
    Taxes to fund schools
    Taxes to fund hospitals
    Taxes to fund roads
    Taxes to fund public transport
    Taxes to fund all the services taxpayers rely on.

  41. [Stephen Koukoulas
    Stephen Koukoulas – Verified account ‏@TheKouk

    Morrison says he’s delivered a low tax outcome. Tax to GDP risen every year since 2012-13 & will rise every year till at least 2020 @abc730]

  44. [Thanks WWP – I guess it’s here, a bit over two hours in. I researched in anticipation of questions about who was going to win preselection, but wasn’t asked any of them.]

    Thanks William, probably an insult coming from me but I mean well, good interview, I don’t know who this Jane is or where she came from but you are right she could have used your expertise much better.

    Again thanks enjoyed listening to that.

  48. [Having knowledge of a crime and the power to prevent it and choosing not to do so is exactly at the same level of misdeed as the crime itself. At least a paedophile might claim some mental disturbance – Pell just didn’t care about anyone else but himself and will absolutely rot in hell if such a place exists.]

    I guess it is here my personal experience lets me down.

    I have only known one victim really well.

    I had only a good understanding of the priest under whose ‘watch’ the abuse occurred (it wasn’t the priest, just a very respected member of the congregation), also knowing her mother well and understanding the mothers guilt no doubt retards my understanding, and knowing the top priest or archbishop in the state and personally confronting him about his failures probably hinders me as well.

  49. [bemused
    Posted Wednesday, February 17, 2016 at 10:12 pm | PERMALINK
    I noted that once again today Morrison used the ‘tax and spend’ line against Labor.

    I think the choice of the word ‘spend’ is quite deliberately chosen to imply Labor is wasteful.

    I think Labor should correct the Libs by using the term ‘tax and fund’.
    We fund schools
    We fund hospitals
    We fund roads
    We fund public transport
    We fund all the services taxpayers rely on.</i]

    Sounds like a good idea to me Bemused.

  50. [silmaj
    Posted Wednesday, February 17, 2016 at 10:55 pm | PERMALINK
    Tax and fund waste exactly.
    Tax and fund infinite cost increases exactly.
    Tax and stuff economic growth exactly.
    Tax and force inflation exactly.
    Look forward to the election    ]

    Is this moron TBA in another guise?

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