Bit late to this one, but this morning’s Courier-Mail carried a Galaxy poll of state voting intention in Queensland. If finds the Liberal National Party opposition with a primary vote lead of 43% to 37%, up slightly from the 42% to 37% result at the previous poll in mid-November. This was extrapolated to a 52-48 lead after preferences, up from 51-49, but two-party calculation is a fraught endeavour in Queensland due to the erratic behaviour of preferences at recent elections. Galaxy derives its result from a composite result of preference flows from the past few elections, so that Labor’s remarkably good showing on preferences in 2015 is balanced out by their disastrous result in 2012. If 2015 election preferences are applied to Galaxy’s primary vote numbers, the result is around 50-50, suggesting a 1% swing to the LNP rather than the published 3%. The poll also finds Annastacia Palaszczuk down nine points on approval since mid-November to 51%, and up eight on disapproval to 32%, while her lead over Opposition Leader Lawrence Springborg as preferred premier narrows from 54-26 to 49-30. However, Springborg’s personal ratings have also deteriorated, his approval rating down four to 37% and disapproval up six to 40%. HT: Leroy Lynch.
UPDATE: Full results on the Galaxy site, which tells us the Greens are on 9% and Katter’s Australian Party is on 4%, in both cases unchanged on last time.
Still waiting for full primaries from this poll, though knowing Galaxy they have probably changed very little from the last one.
It seems that Queenslanders like some headline projects to feel good about. So far Labor had yet to provide one.
I don’t think Palaszczuk is doing herself any favours by so militantly pursuing liquor licensing laws that are rightly copping a belting in NSW for being a delusional failure. Rob Pyne has the sense to be where his constituents are at on this one, and Palaszczuk doesn’t have the sort of margin of support to be able to ride roughshod over the community.
I think both parties have shared this idea for a while that draconian liquor licensing laws are going to be seen by the public as tough on crime, but Sydney is providing some glaring counter-evidence that they’re being seen as clueless nanny-statists instead. And the timing for Palaszczuk couldn’t be worse, as even Baird gets put on the back foot about it.
I also feel like the instability around Rob Pyne was a massive own-goal for the government: when you’re already in a fragile minority government, strongarming regional backbenchers about policies that they’re very critical of that are publicly unpopular is deeply unwise.
I think Queensland Labor would be very wise to get those laws before parliament, pray that Billy Gordon and the Katter party kill them so that Pyne isn’t forced to have the deciding vote, and never breathe a word about them again.
Are we right to imply that the preferences in 2015 is as far as things would go, and then that the norm of preferences marked would be less, but how much less?
LNP – 43% (+1)
ALP – 37% ( 0)
GRN – 9% ( 0)
KAP – 4% ( 0)
OTH – 7% (-1)
http://www.galaxyresearch.com.au/polling/
It’s hard to know if the polling is factual or true. It seems odd that Lawrence Springborg would stare down a leadership challenge from Tim Mander if he was ahead in the polls. If he was ahead in the polls why have all this unrest on the backbench at all? Which makes me think the LNP’s private polling is not as shiny as this poll would suggest.