ReachTEL: 54-46 to Coalition

ReachTEL offers another increment of evidence for a slight loss of honeymoon gloss for the Malcolm Turnbull prime ministership.

A ReachTEL poll, which I presume to have been broadcast on the 6pm Seven News, shows the Coalition with a two-party lead of 54-46, down from 55-45 at the last such poll three weeks ago. Malcolm Turnbull holds a 75-25 on a preferred prime minister question that allows no option for undecided, partly reversing a blowout to 81-19 that raised eyebrows in the previous poll. The poll also finds a remarkably even spread of opinion on Barnaby Joyce as Deputy Prime Minister, with 32% expecting him to be very good or good, 34% expecting him to be average, and 34% expecting him to be poor or very poor. More to follow.

UPDATE: Full results on the ReachTEL site here. The primary votes are 48.1% for the Coalition (down 0.4%), 32.8% for Labor (up 1.0%) and 10.1% for the Greens (down 0.7%). The personal ratings find Malcolm Turnbull taking a solid hit, with his net approval rating of plus 15.3% comparing with results of between plus 31.5% and plus 41.4% in ReachTEL’s three previous polls on his watch.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,235 comments on “ReachTEL: 54-46 to Coalition”

  1. AFR editorial for tomorrow mentions in passing the Ipsos poll is due tomorrow, but no hint on the main figures yet.

    http://www.afr.com/opinion/editorials/malcolm-turnbull-leadership-failure-kills-reform-push-20160214-gmtsmx
    [Feb 14 2016 at 5:42 PM Updated 38 mins ago
    Malcolm Turnbull leadership failure kills reform push

    by The Australian Financial Review

    Today, Australia might have been debating how to reboot economic growth and prosperity, including through a bold tax reform plan to sharpen the incentives to work, save and invest. Instead, after Malcolm Turnbull pulled the pin on a GST tax-reform package, the debate is reverting to incremental and piecemeal change.

    This retreat is indicated in today’s Fairfax Ipsos poll, including the marked fall in the proportion of voters who support increasing the rate of GST if accompanied by income tax cuts and compensation for low and middle-income households. Voters previously responded to the leadership provided by Treasurer Scott Morrison, NSW Premier Mike Baird and South Australian Premier Jay Weatherill. Now this has been killed off.]
    nothing else in the ed on the poll

  2. SK

    I was early 2 O’s then (Does that mean I’m a trainee ‘old bugger’ already?). Visits to the Refectory were to play in a local pub/bar pool comp.

    It was my only experience of ‘Uni Social life’.

    Later I did two law degrees at KCL (passed by the skin of my teeth). The first I got talked into by my bloody Pommie boss and the second a failed (using Yankee vernacular) tail chasing effort.

    About as ‘social’ as attending KCL got for a busy part timer was I didn’t spit on them and they didn’t spit on me.

  3. While everyone has been wowed by having 4 PMs in 5 terms in 5 years, NT has managed 4-5 (depending on who is elected today) Deputy Chief Ministers in 6 terms in less than 4 years!

  4. Regarding the already firming battle-lines over the replacement of Justice Scalia, this article in the New Yorker encapsulates some of the issues I suggested in and earlier post:

    http://www.newyorker.com/news/john-cassidy/will-the-g-o-p-response-to-antonin-scalias-death-hand-the-election-to-the-democrats

    This will be a disaster for the Republicans. If they approve someone – anyone – Senators will be crucified by their base, who have been trained to reject any sort of civility when it comes to politics. If they filibuster and refuse to affirm anyone nominated by Obama, they can be presented as obstructionists who have no care for the national interest, if it conflicts with their personal and political interest (not unlike Abbott in Opposition). And if the Democrats mobilise voters aggressively and effectively, they could be promoting a far more left-wing Justice than anyone Obama may propose.

    And for all this, the Court will be unable to make a difference to the law (even to the benefits of the Conservative side) because 4-4 decisions allow the previous decision to stand, but without the benefit of ensuring a precedential judgement from the highest court.

  5. [Puff, the Magic Dragon.
    Posted Sunday, February 14, 2016 at 5:49 pm | PERMALINK
    Turnbull is a lowlife alright. Doing what he did and is doing to the NBN makes him lower than the lowest form of lowlife on the planet.
    ]

    Puff

    I agree with your sentiments but there ARE serial murderers and rapists that might rate just a touch lower, don’t you think?

  6. http://www.afr.com/news/politics/fairfax-ipsos-poll-malcolm-turnbulls-honeymoon-is-over-20160213-gmtjyb
    [Feb 14 2016 at 7:00 PM Updated 0 min ago
    Fairfax Ipsos poll: Malcolm Turnbull’s gloss comes off

    abor has inched closer to the government and Malcolm Turnbull has lost some of his gloss following a messy fortnight for the Coalition in which it dumped plans to increase the GST and was forced to reshuffle the ministry following two retirements and another sacking.

    The latest Fairfax/Ipsos poll shows Labor trailing the Coalition by 52 per cent to 48 per cent on a two-party-preferred basis.

    While the result would ensure a Coalition victory should it be replicated on election day, it does represent a swing towards the Opposition since the 2013 election of 1.5 per cent, which could translate into a loss of up to nine Coalition seats.

    It also represents a significant tightening since the heady days just after Mr Turnbull rolled Tony Abbott.]

  7. [Its hard to name an area where he has done any serious or worthwhile policy work while he has been in politics.]

    Turnbull’s greatest policy achievement is banning incandescent globes (except for the special shaped ones)

    That’s it. That’s as far as this genius has achieved in public life.

    – Republic: shown up by the combined intellectual might of Mirrabella (Panopoulos), Cleary, Flint and Abbott. Massive FAIL.
    – Murray Darling: knocked up a $10bil joke on the back of a coaster with Howard that Labor had to fix. First move on becoming PM was to give water to the Nats. Massive FAIL.
    – NBN: wasted billions and set the nation back a decade or more for now better reason to stay in position to replace Abbott when he flamed out. MASSIVE MASSIVE CRIMINAL FAIL.
    – ABC: Reduced funding and destroyed independence. FAIL.
    – Media Regulation: He turned and bravely ran away: FAIL.
    – Tax: Ran away, away, away oh Brave Sir Robin: FAIL FAIL FAIL.
    – SSM: Yes, brave Sir Robin turned about and gallantly he chickened out. FAIL
    – Climate Change: Bravely taking to his feet he beat a very brave retreat. DISGRACEFAIL

    I suppose you’d back him if you believe in the myth that every loss takes him closer to a win.

  8. [While the result would ensure a Coalition victory should it be replicated on election day, it does represent a swing towards the Opposition since the 2013 election of 1.5 per cent, which could translate into a loss of up to nine Coalition seats.]

    Wow indeed!

  9. http://www.afr.com/news/politics/fairfax-ipsos-poll-support-for-gst-hike-drops-to-37pc-20160213-gmtjzb
    [Feb 14 2016 at 7:00 PM Updated 10 mins ago
    Fairfax Ipsos poll: Support for GST hike drops to 37pc
    by Phillip Coorey

    The public’s appetite for a GST increase has nosedived in the wake of the Turnbull government’s decision to abandon touching the rate or base of the tax.

    The latest Fairfax/Ipsos poll finds that 37 per cent support a GST increase along with compensation for households on incomes under $100,000 a year.

    This is a sharp drop from the 52 per cent who supported the tax change when the question was last polled in November last year.

    Back then, just 28 per cent supported a GST increase in isolation. But this leapt to 52 per cent when the compensation was factored in. The new level of 37 per cent support mirrors that in the most recent Newspoll.

    It finds 57 per cent are opposed, up from 41 per cent in November.

    The poll of 1403 voters was conducted from Thursday night to Saturday night last week, after it became apparent the government had junked plans to increase the GST to fund its election-year personal and company income tax cuts.

    The government had modelled a scenario in which the 10 per cent GST rate would be increased to 15 per cent and the tax applied to water and sewerage bills.

    It found that even if it spent $30 billion of the extra revenue on personal income tax cuts, the growth dividend would be negligible. It did conclude that if the revenue were churned into company tax cuts there would be a significantly higher growth dividend, but the politics of raising prices to consumers to give big business and foreign investors a tax cut would have been too difficult.

    The poll found that support for an increased GST with compensation remains highest among Coalition voters, who are split 51 to 43 per cent for and against. Labor voters are divided 26 per cent for the increase and 69 per cent against, while 28 per cent of Greens voters are for the tax increase and 67 per cent against.]

  10. Great poll! Give it a few more months – government disarray and lack of policy will be a huge contrast to Labor if they can keep doing what they’ve done this week. I think we’ll be in for an interesting election this year.

  11. SK

    [TOF]

    Bloody TOF OK as long as it means ‘trainee old fart’ or ‘Tons of fun’. Tracheo Oesophageal Fistula (arm stuck so far up ar#e not so good.

    For a tacker you’re showing a scintilla of promise so do what your mum says.

  12. daretotread@1199

    Bemused

    I totally accept I am painting the worst case scenario. That is my intention.

    However you are living in a bubble. You are stuck in 1988.

    Much has changed

    The reality is that there is probably a 1% chance of my scary scenario and 99% for yours. So we are agreed.

    However I still think it makes sense to point out the 1% risk Just like an OHS matix. Likelihood is very rare but impact catastophic. Still gets into the red or yellow risk zones in anything I do.

    Syria (not Russia) is now lobbing shells on Turkey. It is getting messy

    I am familiar with Risk Management and when a high risk is identified, it is incumbent on those who can to take remedial action.

    Hence the cease fire conference that has just taken place and other diplomatic action. The situation is not being ignored.

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