ReachTEL: 54-46 to Coalition

ReachTEL offers another increment of evidence for a slight loss of honeymoon gloss for the Malcolm Turnbull prime ministership.

A ReachTEL poll, which I presume to have been broadcast on the 6pm Seven News, shows the Coalition with a two-party lead of 54-46, down from 55-45 at the last such poll three weeks ago. Malcolm Turnbull holds a 75-25 on a preferred prime minister question that allows no option for undecided, partly reversing a blowout to 81-19 that raised eyebrows in the previous poll. The poll also finds a remarkably even spread of opinion on Barnaby Joyce as Deputy Prime Minister, with 32% expecting him to be very good or good, 34% expecting him to be average, and 34% expecting him to be poor or very poor. More to follow.

UPDATE: Full results on the ReachTEL site here. The primary votes are 48.1% for the Coalition (down 0.4%), 32.8% for Labor (up 1.0%) and 10.1% for the Greens (down 0.7%). The personal ratings find Malcolm Turnbull taking a solid hit, with his net approval rating of plus 15.3% comparing with results of between plus 31.5% and plus 41.4% in ReachTEL’s three previous polls on his watch.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,235 comments on “ReachTEL: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  2. 75-25 is more believable.

    All the polling is showing a small shift back to Labor so at least from that perspective we have some consistency.

  4. davidwh@2

    75-25 is more believable.

    All the polling is showing a small shift back to Labor so at least from that perspective we have some consistency.

    The trickle before the flood comrade.

    People are waking up to the flimflam man and his motley gang.

  6. Just putting this on the new thread…

    According to Oakes Bill Shorten will announce a policy to only allow negative gearing on new property. Also to cut the CGT discount to 25% on investor property.

  11. Rex

    Why not just tell us all what PPM Shorten needs to be “cutting through” and save yourself the trouble of reminding us.

  12. [Also to cut the CGT discount to 25% on investor property.]
    Well, that will ruffle feathers, especially if it includes existing investments.

  13. [Can Required Multiple Preferencing Solve The Senate Reform Mess?]
    Will they hire more staff to count this or, as its the senate, allow the process to take longer?

  17. 13

    If there is a DD, especially if it is held in July, and they take to long to count the vote all the Senate ministers have to resign because they cannot be ministers without a seat for more than 3 months.

  21. Roberts is incredibly unlucky. What are the chances of a blind trust investing in a company owned by one of your best friends?

  22. Plastic bag, schmlastic bag. Are there any photos? I would need to see the original bag with fingerprints on it to believe that bullshit.

    Was there any store name or other identifier in the bag? Were the watches in a box labelled Roleks (oops) or just scratching against each other in the bag?

  24. SK

    Yep. Menton nice. Even better Castillon just up the hill (shitty road!). It’s got a great view down a V shaped valley over the top of Menton.

    Very much one of my favorite places to be.

  25. Simon Katich @ 13: Just hiring more people to do a Senate count is not necessarily so easy. You would expect trained data entry officers to be harder and harder to get, as online interactions are replacing hardcopy forms. And if the count is to be done manually, being a counter is a skilled, not unskilled, position. A person who misplaces or mis-labels a single bundle of ballots can completely disrupt proceedings.

  27. Tom @ 13: More generally, going for months without a Parliament, not to mention ~ 8 weeks in caretaker mode, would seem likely to be politically problematical.

  29. Michael@25

    Simon Katich @ 13: Just hiring more people to do a Senate count is not necessarily so easy. You would expect trained data entry officers to be harder and harder to get, as online interactions are replacing hardcopy forms. And if the count is to be done manually, being a counter is a skilled, not unskilled, position. A person who misplaces or mis-labels a single bundle of ballots can completely disrupt proceedings.

    If the problems can be sorted out, electronic voting will make it easy.

    Once the voters intention is recorded electronically, the rest is a doodle.

  31. Malcolm is a man in a hurry. So much so, that the dificulties with an early DD election may fade away with the promise of a shining prize.

    And the prize? Winning an election and remaking the government and its policies in his self percieved image. One which doesnt carry any more of the AbbottBaggage.

  33. 27

    The House of Reps would be counted within a couple of weeks of the election. The long campaign is a slight concern, but not overly so.

  34. Turnbull’s approval numbers have taken a big hit with approval down 14 and disapproval up 11. Apparently he has gone from deity level to just fair.

  35. Michael@32

    Bemused @ 29: e-voting at 7000 polling places would be prohibitively expensive. It’s feasible in the ACT because it’s so much smaller. And there are hordes of problems with internet voting: see http://www.eca.gov.au/research/files/internet-voting-australian-election-systems.pdf

    Yes, I did acknowledge there were problems to be sorted out and about a year or so ago I attended a talk by an academic researching this.

    Most polling places are at schools so a connection to the internet should be feasible.

    Cost of terminals would be considerable, but then so too is the cost of processing paper ballots. So there is an offset there.

  36. davidwh@34

    Turnbull’s approval numbers have taken a big hit with approval down 14 and disapproval up 11. Apparently he has gone from deity level to just fair.

    The answer is @4

  37. [And the prize? Winning an election and remaking the government and its policies in his self percieved image. One which doesnt carry any more of the AbbottBaggage.]

    But how many of his opponents will simply do a Rex and say that a blind drover’s dog could beat Shorten and declare that, contrary to winning his own mandate, Turncoat actually wasted the mandate won by Abbott in 2013? That thinking may be contrary to reality and logic, but people have a great ability to believe what suits them.

  40. I know Indi isn’t necessarily a typical electorate, but only a very small number of booths here are in schools. The nearest booth at a school to me, for example, is nearly an hour’s drive away. Most of the booths are in community halls.

  43. I could not imagine anything better for Labor than a long election campaign.

    The last time this happened, when Hawke called the 1984 election, actually saw Hawke and Labor going backward (only keeping the same number of seats because the Parliament was expanded).

    And all my observations of both Shorten and Turnbull in action will see Shorten out-debating Turnbull in every head to head. When Shorten gets going, he can be very direct, precise and passionate. Turnbull is incapable of achieving any of those. His long suit is to sound Prime Ministerial and hope people don’t fall asleep as he talks down at them.

  45. zoomster@40

    I know Indi isn’t necessarily a typical electorate, but only a very small number of booths here are in schools. The nearest booth at a school to me, for example, is nearly an hour’s drive away. Most of the booths are in community halls.

    Wouldn’t be a problem if we had pervasive NBN.

  46. [Alannah MacTiernan to bow out:]

    2nd Perth Labor one in a short time. Malcolm will be declaring that Labor is hemorrhaging and in crisis and should be voted out

  48. [Rex Douglas
    Posted Friday, February 12, 2016 at 6:46 pm | PERMALINK
    75-25 suggests Bill Shorten still can’t cut through…    ]

    Neither can you Rex. We’ve heard it all before, ad infinitum.

  50. [ MacTiernan seems to be saying she’s chucking it in because she not been promoted??? ]

    Statement could be read that way? Still, she has been in politics for a long time. Maybe just sick of Canberra. Whatever, she has been a good ALP member, would like to see her stay but if she wants out, all the best.

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