ReachTEL: 54-46 to Coalition

ReachTEL offers another increment of evidence for a slight loss of honeymoon gloss for the Malcolm Turnbull prime ministership.

A ReachTEL poll, which I presume to have been broadcast on the 6pm Seven News, shows the Coalition with a two-party lead of 54-46, down from 55-45 at the last such poll three weeks ago. Malcolm Turnbull holds a 75-25 on a preferred prime minister question that allows no option for undecided, partly reversing a blowout to 81-19 that raised eyebrows in the previous poll. The poll also finds a remarkably even spread of opinion on Barnaby Joyce as Deputy Prime Minister, with 32% expecting him to be very good or good, 34% expecting him to be average, and 34% expecting him to be poor or very poor. More to follow.

UPDATE: Full results on the ReachTEL site here. The primary votes are 48.1% for the Coalition (down 0.4%), 32.8% for Labor (up 1.0%) and 10.1% for the Greens (down 0.7%). The personal ratings find Malcolm Turnbull taking a solid hit, with his net approval rating of plus 15.3% comparing with results of between plus 31.5% and plus 41.4% in ReachTEL’s three previous polls on his watch.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,235 comments on “ReachTEL: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  1. ‘ ReachTel 54/46 (1 point shift to ALP)’

    Labor, slowly peeling the punters off the Coalition onion one layer at a time. 🙂

  2. It seems there’s a good number of decent Labor people retiring this election. There seems to be a sense of renewal in the party.

  4. Rex Douglas @ 5,

    ‘ 75-25 suggests Bill Shorten still can’t cut through…’

    I finally figured it out!

    ‘Rex Douglas’ is actually Mark Simkin!

    It’s the job the Coalition found for him after he lost his job with Toned Abbott. 😀

  6. victoria @ 8,

    ‘ And apparently Shorten will announce these policies at the ALP conference this weekend. ‘

    And moi will be there! 😀

  8. Mark Kenny

    a third minister in as many months, an imminent reshuffle caused by that crisis, and a slew of resignations. But the emergency deck-clearing, coupled with a still strong lead in the polls and a possible breakthrough on Senate voting reform may yet clear the way for an early double-dissolution election.
    While Labor remains hostile and a deal with the Greens and independent senator Nick Xenophon is not yet sealed, government hopes are high that a change to scrap block voting, which would spell the end to a plethora of micro-parties, is close.
    That would mean an early double-dissolution election could be held – most likely over union corruption – without the risk of an even more unmanageable Senate than is in place now.

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/minister-dumped-as-turnbull-keeps-snap-poll-option-alive-20160212-gmsuvv.html#ixzz3zwXsrWJN
    Follow us: @theage on Twitter | theageAustralia on Facebook

  10. The Bank of England has published an introduction to the money creation process. In particular:

    – One common misconception is that banks act simply as intermediaries, lending out the deposits that savers place with them
    – Another common misconception is that the central bank determines the quantity of loans and deposits in the economy by controlling the quantity of central bank money — the so-called ‘money multiplier’ approach
    – Of the two types of broad money, bank deposits make up the vast majority — 97% of the amount currently in circulation. And in the modern economy, those bank deposits are mostly created by commercial banks themselves.

    It is noted that this is contrary to many textbook descriptions of the process, which are simply inconsistent with the evidence (i.e. wrong).

    Link: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/quarterlybulletin/2014/qb14q1prereleasemoneycreation.pdf

  11. C@tmomma

    [
    ‘Rex Douglas’ is actually Mark Simkin!

    It’s the job the Coalition found for him after he lost his job with Toned Abbott. 😀 ]
    It’s The Boned Toned Abbott now 🙂

  12. vic,
    I’ll try and get a Selfie with Bill. 😀

    Actually I’m going to drinks at sunset with Wayne Swan and Michael Cooney from The Chifley Centre as well. Me and hundreds of others. 🙂

  13. The personal stuff for Mal and Bill.

    Ignoring the middle [satisfactory] and rounded

    Mal
    Very good/good …54 last time to 39 this time.
    Poor/Very poor….12 last time to 24 this time.

    Bill
    Very good/good …14 last time to 19 this time.
    Poor/Very poor …57 last time to 50 this time.

  15. bemused

    [Andrew Robb observed rightly that it takes a long time coming from the outside to establish yourself in Canberra.

    If I was at the beginning of my political career I could afford to be more patient in this regard.]

    Hmmm … this bit curiously worded. “it takes a long time coming from the outside to establish yourself in Canberra”. Do they think it’s easier to make it if you come from Canberra?

  16. ‘ That would mean an early double-dissolution election could be held – most likely over union corruption – without the risk of an even more unmanageable Senate than is in place now.’

    I hope Labor have a thoroughly dog-eared copy of the Senate Inquiry held by Wacka Williams into corruption in the Financial Services Industry and have kept tabs on all the stories that have come out recently wrt Big Bank client rip-offs so that they can counter the Coalition malarkey with the cold hard truth about where the corruption really lies in this society.

    Btw, I haven’t actually noticed the peasants revolting in the streets and coming for Union Officials with pitchforks and molotov cocktails since the release of the TURCey Report. Have you?

    And if Jacquie Lambie has anything to do with it she will be making it plain that the ‘iceberg’ supposedly contained in the Secret Volumes is more like an ice cube. So that mooted election theme could go seriously pear-shaped.

    Not to mention the fact that Labor better make people aware just what cutting the Unions off at the knees will mean in prospect after the election.

    *Penalty Rates gone. Forcibly traded away for a meagre increase in the general hourly rate of pay.

    * More 457 Visa Workers being allowed in to take your job for a lower rate of pay.

    * More outsourcing of good Aussie jobs to the IT companies overseas owned by Liberal donors like that Indian guy who just resigned as Chairman of SBS.

    * Outsourcing of Medicare surgery to Private Hospitals where Unions are weak.

    I could go on because I am sure the Coalition have gone further than that in their forward planning.

  17. CTar1@65

    bemused

    Andrew Robb observed rightly that it takes a long time coming from the outside to establish yourself in Canberra.

    If I was at the beginning of my political career I could afford to be more patient in this regard.


    Hmmm … this bit curiously worded. “it takes a long time coming from the outside to establish yourself in Canberra”. Do they think it’s easier to make it if you come from Canberra?

    Seems to me like she has found Canberra harder than she expected and is acknowledging that at her age she is not really going to have a career there.

    Strikes me as a sensible decision.

  18. c@tmomma

    I was told yesterday that the Age newspaper was going to be reporting on the CFMEU and John Setka in the next few days. My source did not elaborate, but got the gist it would be another union bashing exercise. Reading This from Mark Kenny would indicate it is still a strategy Turnbull and co may adopt. What a frickin joke, considering his own Cabinet minister has just been booted for questionable conduct

  19. [ According to Oakes Bill Shorten will announce a policy to only allow negative gearing on new property. Also to cut the CGT discount to 25% on investor property. ]

    Good. Own the agenda.

    [ Actually I’m going to drinks at sunset with Wayne Swan and Michael Cooney from The Chifley Centre as well. Me and hundreds of others. 🙂 ]

    If you were Tony Abbott that would be a personal and intimate meeting with the head honcho wouldn’t it? 🙂

  21. OK what is afoot in WA ALP left. McTiernan AND Parke.

    To lose on female left wing ALP MP from WA is unfortunate, but to lose two is careless (apologies to Oscar Wilde)

  22. victoria @ 68,

    ‘ I was told yesterday that the Age newspaper was going to be reporting on the CFMEU and John Setka in the next few days. My source did not elaborate, but got the gist it would be another union bashing exercise.’

    So, firstly, why didn’t The Age provide this information to the Royal Commission when it was sitting? Isn’t that a crime?

    Secondly, if the TURC went through Setka and the CFMEU like a dose of salts and didn’t uncover anything much, then that surely indicates it will be a beat-up in The Age.

  25. [ My source did not elaborate, but got the gist it would be another union bashing exercise.]

    From Lambies comments on having seen the “secret volumes” i think the Libs are going to have a hard time making this one more sizzle than sausage. And if the ALP come back with:

    [ ok, corruption, lets deal with Unions, builders, banks and the spivs in the finance industry. Right now MalPM, lets do it!

    Oh and wot about your uncle Arfur? Hows he?? ]

    The the Libs are fwarked with that as a campaign.

  26. C@tmomma

    I havent seen anything in today’s paper. Will keep an eye out. If i recall correctly, Setka and another union rep are due in court in next few weeks. Could be something to do with that

  27. Honestly, Alannah McTiernan should have made it into federal parliament at her first attempt, then she would have had a bright future. As it is now she is a 60+ year old woman expected to do the long haul.

    If WA Labor were smart they would put up the recently-defeated former Senator from WA to take her place. They are both from the Left.

  31. C@tmomma

    [imacca,
    If I were Tony Abbott, I would be sending the bill to the Finance Department! 😀 ]
    😆 You’d also have ‘dominatrix’ chaperone Peta busting her gut trying to stop you totally embarrassing yourself and the nation.

  32. SHEA – I bet Labor’s private polling is showing an upswing in support – which might explain the lightness in Shorten’s step.

  35. [ If WA Labor were smart they would put up the recently-defeated former Senator from WA to take her place. They are both from the Left. ]

    Very good idea.

  36. KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN@82

    SHEA – I bet Labor’s private polling is showing an upswing in support – which might explain the lightness in Shorten’s step.

    Why should this mysterious ‘private polling’ have a different result to the published polls?

  37. davidwh@34

    Turnbull’s approval numbers have taken a big hit with approval down 14 and disapproval up 11. Apparently he has gone from deity level to just fair.

    Except that those are from a probably spurious base. The issues with the previous ReachTEL appears to have affected all the leadership figures, not just the PPM.

    A more useful comparison is the late November result which still shows Turnbull down rather a lot.

    By the way the 2PP in this one would have probably been close to rounding to 55 again.

  39. [If WA Labor were smart they would put up the recently-defeated former Senator from WA to take her place.]

    Yes C@t, a good idea. Except I’m not sure where Pratt is at these days.

  41. [ sprocket_
    Posted Friday, February 12, 2016 at 7:28 pm | PERMALINK

    Malcolm is a man in a hurry. ]

    In almost 5 months he has achieved almost nothing of a policy nature, in fact he has refused to do anything on matters he previously championed.

    His judgment must be called into account on his ministry selections and the AFR calls his management of tax reform an utter shambles.

    Did I mention his ‘team’ are at each others throats on a range of matters ?

    If his current performance is in a hurry, God help us if he slows down the rate of his ‘achievements’.

  42. Do the greens realise they will be cutting their own throats if they agree to the Lib’s proposed senate changes and effectively hand control of both houses to Malcolm Turnbull?
    Have they not yet learned that the ideologically driven Liberal party is the biggest threat to everything they stand for and believe in?

    If ever there was a time that they should be standing as a bulwark with the Labor party against this government’s transparent strategy to push its extreme legislation through the parliament, this is it. Let the senate reform wait until the Liberals will no longer be the beneficiaries. Then side with the Labor party to get it done. In that way the left wing ambitions of the greens, as well as many in the labor party, will have their best chance of success.

  43. BEMUSED – For a start, labor’s private polling would be better. I doubt labor gives much credence to the public polls.

  44. [39.MacTiernan is not a member of the Left.]

    I remember her and Martin Whitely sitting together as a rather small independent faction at one point, but where did MacTiernan start?

  48. Kevin – but the slide from Reachtel’s first “Malcolm” polls is pretty pronounced, right? I also wouldn’t be surprised if they’re not “smoothing out” some of their figures so they can correct their stuff-up in two jumps.

  50. WeWantPaul@94

    39.MacTiernan is not a member of the Left.


    I remember her and Martin Whitely sitting together as a rather small independent faction at one point, but where did MacTiernan start?

    ‘Independent faction’ … now there’s a curious term.

    We have one in Victoria. The faction you’re in when you’re not in a faction. 😆

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