Fairfax-Ipsos: 52-48 to Coalition

The first Ipsos poll in three months provides more evidence of a slippage in support for Malcolm Turnbull and the Coalition government.

The latest Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers is another weaker result for the Coalition, whose two-party lead of 52-48 compares with 56-44 at the previous such poll in mid-November. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down four points to 44%, Labor is up three to 32% and the Greens are up two to 15%. Malcolm Turnbull takes a solid hit on his still very strong personal ratings, with approval down seven to 62% and disapproval up eight to 24%. Bill Shorten is little changed on 30% approval (up one) and 55% disapproval (down two), and his deficit on preferred prime minister has narrowed slightly, from 69-18 to 64-19. The poll was conducted Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1403.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,969 comments on “Fairfax-Ipsos: 52-48 to Coalition”

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  6. That’s more like it. Mals popularity can only support this mess of a government for so long. Now he has a ministry full of learners as well.

  7. [Its hard to name an area where he has done any serious or worthwhile policy work while he has been in politics.]

    Turnbull’s greatest policy achievement is banning incandescent globes (except for the special shaped ones)

    That’s it. That’s as far as this genius has achieved in public life.

    – Republic: shown up by the combined intellectual might of Mirrabella (Panopoulos), Cleary, Flint and Abbott. Massive FAIL.
    – Murray Darling: knocked up a $10bil joke on the back of a coaster with Howard that Labor had to fix. First move on becoming PM was to give water to the Nats. Massive FAIL.
    – NBN: wasted billions and set the nation back a decade or more for now better reason to stay in position to replace Abbott when he flamed out. MASSIVE MASSIVE CRIMINAL FAIL.
    – ABC: Reduced funding and destroyed independence. FAIL.
    – Media Regulation: He turned and bravely ran away: FAIL.
    – Tax: Ran away, away, away oh Brave Sir Robin: FAIL FAIL FAIL.
    – SSM: Yes, brave Sir Robin turned about and gallantly he chickened out. FAIL
    – Climate Change: Bravely taking to his feet he beat a very brave retreat. DISGRACEFAIL

    I suppose you’d back him if you believe in the myth that every loss takes him closer to a win.

  8. William

    How will you be treating this poll in relation to Bludgertrack?

    Will you still be regarding it as having a house effect favouring the Libs?

  9. More coverage of the this poll.

    https://twitter.com/Leroy_Lynch/status/698780592326901760
    [Fairfax-Ipsos poll: voters cool on Malcolm Turnbull as Coalition support drops below 2013 election levels
    February 14, 2016 – 7:10PM
    Mark Kenny
    Chief political correspondent

    A summer marred by ministerial crises and the prospect of a higher GST has taken the shine off the Turnbull government, sending the Coalition’s share of the vote below that achieved by Tony Abbott at the 2013 election.

    A four point two-party preferred slump to 52-48 still has the government winning but is set to dispel any lingering early election barracking from within the government. Just one in five voters (22 per cent) would look favourably on Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull running to the polls before his full term is served. Mr Turnbull has told his party to be on guard for a snap poll should key legislation be blocked in the Senate. ]

    http://www.afr.com/news/politics/fairfax-ipsos-poll-bill-shorten-deserves-a-crack-20160214-gmts7f
    [Opinion Feb 14 2016 at 7:00 PM Updated 20 mins ago
    Fairfax Ipsos poll: Bill Shorten deserves a crack
    by Phillip Coorey

    Tuesday last week marked one year since Tony Abbott survived the first leadership spill, if only because no one chose to run against him.

    At the time, Labor’s lead in the polls was pretty identical to the lead the Coalition holds today under Malcolm Turnbull, but Bill Shorten was way ahead of Abbott as preferred prime minister.]

    AFR Poll of Polls http://www.afr.com/data/polling.aspx?type=pops&dimensions=wide

  11. Not one Lib has appeared in public to get stuck into labor on Capital Gains. Not one. Just some rubbish from Sco-Mo in the Australia. Pathetic.

  13. confessions & Asha Leu

    A fortnightly Newspoll should come out for this weekend, but might not be out until Monday night / Tuesday morning

  14. WILLIAM – Events, in a sense, are moving very fast. Is Bludger-tracker a bit sleepy because it’s not washing out polls fast enough?

  16. [http://www.afr.com/opinion/editorials/malcolm-turnbull-leadership-failure-kills-reform-push-20160214-gmtsmx]

    The caption under the photo: ‘Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull is showing a surprising lack of leadership.’

    Surprising to someone who hasn’t payed any attention at all to Turnbull’s public career perhaps…

  19. 19-64 PPM, 32% PV. Hardly an excuse to pop the champagne corks in Bill Shortens office.

    Good result for the Greens Party who continue to build….

  21. Judging by the Primaries, the result to Labor looks better than it is.

    TPP to Labor = 100/101(32 + (15*0.83) + (0.463) + (9*0.47) + 0.14)
    = 48.8

    The TPP for this Ipsos poll, using the Primaries, is 51.2-48.8 to Coalition.

    (The 100/101 calculation is used because the Primary Votes don’t add up to 100.)

  23. [Not one Lib has appeared in public to get stuck into labor on Capital Gains. Not one. Just some rubbish from Sco-Mo in the Australia. Pathetic]

    Because they don’t know if they’ll be stealing the policy yet…

  26. confessions

    [ The shine has come off the Turnbull government, with the Coalition’s share of the vote below that achieved by Tony Abbott at the 2013 election. ]

    Is it too early to start the “Bring Back Tony” campaign?

  28. How long before we hear of moves to bring back Abbott (as with Rudd in 2013) to prevent there being a rout and save some LNP seats ???

  29. Thanks Millenial, my maths got it in the same vicinity.
    Presumably rounding puts it to 52:48 but your numbers suggest it must be close to 51:49.
    I also wonder of the Turnbull factor has altered the preference flows.

  31. [Sco-Mo said they aren’t – but that doesn’t mean anything with this mob.]

    ScoMo said a lot of things about raising the GST too. Malcolm wet his pants and well you know the rest…

  32. Ratsak has summed Turnbull up beautifully

    It is all true

    I thought the guy had a little gumption, but no.

    I should say that this pattern was obvious way back in 1972 when at Uni. He has poor judgement and cannot read signals

  33. [William

    How will you be treating this poll in relation to Bludgertrack?

    Will you still be regarding it as having a house effect favouring the Libs?]

    Based on its behaviour relative to other pollsters before Turnbull took over, the primary vote adjustments for Ipsos are L-NP -0.9%, ALP +1.1% and GRN -1.2%, which pans out to about a 1% shift to Labor on 2PP. On top of which, the 2PP for this poll comes out better for Labor when calculated off raw primary votes: 51.3-48.7.

  34. Rex “:Good result for the Greens Party who continue to build…”. But are they “building”? Why did their vote drop after MT became PM, then? It looks to me as if the 15% is made up of 9% who really support their policies and leaders and 6% wet Liberals who would go back to the Libs if only they’d be a bit nicer (and effective at it).

  35. [Is it too early to start the “Bring Back Tony” campaign?]

    The more the polls narrow the more likely it is the Abbott mob will become further emboldened.

    After all, they figure themselves to be the rightful PM and Cabinet in exile.

  36. Rex Douglas

    [. Hardly an excuse to pop the champagne corks in Bill Shortens ]
    You are not “cutting through” and such a failure means you must resign NOW !

  37. Leroy’s link at #27 shows the ALP is almost back to its 2013 election primary, just 1% less, and the Greens have been running 3% to 7% above election primary, currently above by 6%+.
    I suspect some of the Grns primary could be moved to the ALP, nevertheless, according to IPSOS, the big swing since the election has been to the Greens.

  38. You know, Rex, I would take your endless pessimism re Bill Shorten a lot more seriously if you hadn’t been saying the exact same stuff ever since Shorten was elected leader. While Abbott still had a decent poll lead over, you were predicting that Shorten would never cut through and Abbott would remain in front. When Labor began dominating in the polls but Shorten remained behind on PPM, then you were bemoaning that it wouldn’t last and the Coalition would be back on top soon enough. Once Shorten had overtaken Abbott on PPM and was recording consistent leads on net approval, well, it still wasn’t going to last, Shorten just can’t cut through.

    Sure, you’ve been fairly correct about Shorten’s standing with the electorate lately (for now…), but it took two years for reality and a change of PM for reality to finally jive with your doomsaying. Broken clocks and all.

    If Shorten wins in 2016, I imagine you will be here on election night to post about how Shorten has no hope of being a popular PM and the new Labor goverment is guaranteed to be a one-termer unless he is removed.

  39. Sohar

    [I bet Scotty is circling. Mal better watch out.]

    And that would guarantee a Labor victory if they were stupid enough to do it. 😀

    But I think they’ll persist with Malcolm ‘the puppet’ through to the next election.

    That a very close run thing. A coin flip.

  41. Asha

    The voters have never wanted Bill Shorten. Polling has confirmed that.

    The voters wanted Abbott out and replaced with Malcolm. They got what they want.

  42. Great result for both Labor and the Greens. Turnbull copped a hit too, but still strong – his strength over Shorten in PPM shows that people like Turnbull, but not the package he comes with.

  43. [The more the polls narrow the more likely it is the Abbott mob will become further emboldened.]

    Yep. It’s a positive feedback loop. The closer the polls get the more the RWNJs say Malcolm was a mistake and ‘give us back our party’. That drives the Lib vote lower triggering further destabilisation.

    Turnbull has already proven beyond any doubt that he’s weak as piss. He had to take them head on from the start and build a position of strength through actual wins. Instead he has squibbed every battle and is trying to coast home on a popularity bubble.

  44. If people must look beyond Malcolm as the next conservative Liberal leader I’d suggest keeping an eye on Christian Porter.

  46. Turnbull was rewarded for removing Abbott, they gave them a chance. But the reality is, I think people are starting to see that this is a government afraid of its own shadow. While it’s not hurting Turnbull too much, I think that might be coming.

    I’ve liked and respected Malcolm, but I think he’s shown himself to be a massive coward.

  48. [The voters wanted Abbott out and replaced with Malcolm. They got what they want.]

    and now they’re starting to realise they’ve been sold a second pup and the buyer’s remorse begins.

  49. Malcolm had a window of about a month when he had to stamp his authority on the party. When he didn’t do that, he lost the next election.

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