The latest Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers is another weaker result for the Coalition, whose two-party lead of 52-48 compares with 56-44 at the previous such poll in mid-November. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down four points to 44%, Labor is up three to 32% and the Greens are up two to 15%. Malcolm Turnbull takes a solid hit on his still very strong personal ratings, with approval down seven to 62% and disapproval up eight to 24%. Bill Shorten is little changed on 30% approval (up one) and 55% disapproval (down two), and his deficit on preferred prime minister has narrowed slightly, from 69-18 to 64-19. The poll was conducted Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1403.
[When he didn’t do that, he lost the next election.]
The next election is definitely not lost for the coalition. The more Turnbull continues to disappoint voters and fail to live up to expectations however, just makes it harder for him to convince people to give him another shot. And then there’s Abbott plotting in the wings….
I don’t care about Preferred Prime Minister because all it usually means is that people can more easily visualize a person in a role if the person is currently or has already served in the role. But I think that net satisfaction ratings do have probative value for what the public thinks of leaders. In this Ipsos-Fairfax poll, Malcolm Turnbull’s net approval rating is positive 38; Bill Shorten’s is negative 25. That is a vast gap. While it is heartening that Labor’s primary vote has risen from a calamitous 29 to a merely disastrous 32, it remains troubling that the Coalition’s primary vote is still at a very healthy 44 despite all the screw-ups and disappointed expectations of the past two and a half years. A robust, informed, and articulate opposition would have parlayed all those government screw-ups into a healthy lead by now.
CTar1
Out of interest. Was your 2nd law degree an “upgrade” or another legal speciality ? Ta.
Bemused
Turkish planes have now entered the war – bombing Kurds
Rex
[ If people must look beyond Malcolm as the next conservative Liberal leader I’d suggest keeping an eye on Christian Porter. ]
First, he would have to get past Abbott. Then Morrison. Then just about everyone else in the LNP.
This tweet was in response to the Ipsos poll
Although Anyone with a negatively geared property is not affected by any changes after July next year. The Oz would have to find a battler who wants to buy an established property after July next year. You know it makes sense
[Josh Bornstein
Josh Bornstein – Verified account @JoshBBornstein
All hands on deck at The Australian to find a battler with a negatively geared property to plaster on the front page
1:05 AM – 14 Feb 2016
23 RETWEETS28 LIKES]
Rex
Christian Porter? Now I know you are taking the piss. He has about as much presence as my little toe!!
victoria
[
Rex
Christian Porter? Now I know you are taking the piss. He has about as much presence as my little toe!!]
His FIGJAM though is colossal. Sandgropia’s gift to the nation.
I’m sure we’ll see screaming headlines in the Telecrap about widows and orphans thrown out onto the streets as a result of Labor’s heartless refusal to continue to subsidise property speculation through tax breaks for negative gearing.
CTar1
[For a tacker you’re showing a scintilla of promise so do what your mum says.]
I will defer to you for when I can put on the OF training wheels.
Not sure who can decide on when you can take yours off. There are too many 1st class honours OF’s around here.
poroti
So he thinks he is a legend in his own lunchtime. 🙂
[If people must look beyond Malcolm as the next conservative Liberal leader I’d suggest keeping an eye on Christian Porter.]
Had a coffee across the road from his electoral office, massive picture of him on the window, hard not to throw up. But yes he’d rate himself, but can he overcome the WA disease?
Rex Douglas @41
[The voters have never wanted Bill Shorten. Polling has confirmed that.]
Probably true. But they’ll quite happily make him Prime Minister if they want the other mob out.
[The voters wanted Abbott out and replaced with Malcolm. They got what they want.]
Again, probably true. But I doubt that the Coalition’s two years of dire polls came about as a result of a machiavellan conspiracy between poll respondants trying to effect a leadership change from Abbott to Turnbull. Fact is, for most of Abbott’s time as PM, a majority of voters had decided to vote Labor under Bill Shorten into goverment. And they may well do so again.
Rex, for someone who writes quite regularly about Kevin Rudd’s legendary incompetence, I’m surprised at how consumed you seem to be with cult-of-personality politics. No, Shorten isn’t particular charismatic or inspiring, and he’s probably never going to command the sort of popularity enjoyed by the likes of Hawke or Rudd or Obama or Turnbull, but, you know what, he appears intelligent and competent and a pretty decent guy, he can be articulate and passionate when he needs to be, he’s managed to avoid any serious gaffes his colleagues are apparently able to operate under his leadership without fighting the urge to blow their brains out, and, most importantly, he actually seems like he’d make a pretty effective Prime Minister.
If Shorten had spent this entire term way down the polling dumps, then, yeah, I could accept the argument for a change of leadership. But Shorten has already proved that he can get well ahead, for a not-inconsiderable stretch of time, and I don’t see any reason yet why he couldn’t do so again. When you can get away with it, I say go with the boring-but-dependable candidate over the popular-but-unpredictable one every time.
I reckon there is one lesson above all else to be learnt from the events of 2007-2013: there are worse things that can happen to a party than losing an election. For example, winning an election with an incredibly popular leader who remains incredibly popular well after it has become apparent to those on the inside that he isn’t up to the job of PM. (Or, for that matter, dumping said leader before they can lose the next election, leaving his reputation mostly untarnished and giving him a chance to make a teary concession speech that made much of the electorate forget why they had fallen out of love with him over the last year, then retaining minority government through the barest of margins with a competent but unpopular new leader and having to spend the next three years being undermined internally by the still-very-popular former leader… but I digress.)
[A robust, informed, and articulate opposition would have parlayed all those government screw-ups into a healthy lead by now.]
Because magic!
You are full of it.
Who would have thunked it
[Bridget O’Flynn
Bridget O’Flynn – @BridgetOFlynn
Samantha Maiden: Someone from Abbott’s office is leaking to someone in Bill Shorten’s office.
#viewpoint
1:40 AM – 14 Feb 2016
7 RETWEETS]
[Bridget O’Flynn
Bridget O’Flynn – @BridgetOFlynn
They’re hinting it’s Peta]
[Who would have thunked it]
From the ‘Well Derrr!” Files
A couple of posts from the previous thread that got left behind when William declared ‘New Thread’.
bemused@1231 on ReachTEL: 54-46 to Coalition | The Poll Bludger
bemused@1233 on ReachTEL: 54-46 to Coalition | The Poll Bludger
shea mcduff@29
It’s actually probably not rounding. Ipsos use overall preference flow which means treating all third parties as having the same average preference flow as at the last election irrespective of changes in their makeup. The proportion of third party voters who are voting Green has allegedly increased from 41% at the election to 60% at this poll, though I do not believe the 15% Greens result for an instant. This is enough to drive a difference between “overall preference flow” and last-election preference flow with parties separated of about one 2PP point.
Most likely on these numbers from this sample it would really be 51:49 by last-election preferences.
By the way I’ve identified a minor issue with the PPM in this poll so it might change slightly with Turnbull losing less than he appears to have on that score.
CTar1@47
Yes he is still like that and, although he is clear about being part of the left, I think he is liked and respected across the factions.
His judgement was vindicated over the skulduggery of June 2010.
daretotread@54
Source? Not mentioned on RT.
Wow just seen Colin Barnett on the news and he is looking very very old.
poroti
[Was your 2nd law degree an “upgrade” or another legal speciality]
It was a masters and a total triumph.
‘European Commercial Law’ – some years later I was asked about a single sentence in an schedule to a contract with an Italian photocopier company.
That was a mighty justification for the UK taxpayer to invest in a fly by night colonial boy.
Have I explained this well enough?
[Samantha Maiden: Someone from Abbott’s office is leaking to someone in Bill Shorten’s office.]
Where is that coming from? Nothing in Maiden’s tweets.
Michael Gordon in The Age:
The consolation is that Bill Shorten has failed utterly to capitalise on the untidiness and tensions that have characterised the government’s ragged start to 2016.
Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/fairfaxipsos-poll-turnbulls-honeymoon-isnt-over-but-relief-is-giving-way-to-scepticism-20160214-gmtsrq.html#ixzz408SG3Rwm
Perhaps Ive had one too many wines with the Sunday lamb roast, but isn’t a four percent turn around in the TPP to the ALP since November a bit more than an ‘utter failure’?
fess
Tweet,suggests Samantha Maiden said it on sky program called Viewpoint
KB
Ta. I think I understood that.
This:
[I also wonder of the Turnbull factor has altered the preference flows.]
is my wondering if Greens and “Others” preferences would be different from Abbott era to current on the grounds that Turnbull would be seen as less obnoxious to Greens than Abbott and the old 83% may not apply. Dog knows what “Others” would be.
Any thoughts?
Thanks vic.
On matters football WA has been treated to news of the fallout between Brownless and Lyon after Lyon was reportedly linked with Bronwless’s wife for days now.
Why is this news? Lyon may have a mental health condition, but still. Who cares?
[Perhaps Ive had one too many wines with the Sunday lamb roast, but isn’t a four percent turn around in the TPP to the ALP since November a bit more than an ‘utter failure’?]
Gordon was projecting (again)
daretotread@54
Still nothing I can find in any of the media on this.
You are making stuff up again.
Fess
The fallout between Lyons and Brownless is news because they usually appear together on the footy show which is due to start next month. Also Lyons and Brownless have other engagrments with channel 9.
Turnbull’s facebook post this morning about him and his wife, and the resultant negative comments along the lines of marriage equality makes the news tonight.
vic:
Still can’t see why that rates above news of the federal govt, ie my comment above.
Fess
Interesting. I havent watched the news in Melbourne for several days, so have no idea what priority it was given here.
[Samantha Maiden: Someone from Abbott’s office is leaking to someone in Bill Shorten’s office.]
Isnt Bill friendly with a few on the right? That IPA chap for one.
I stubbed my toe before – clearly a sign that Bill Shorten isn’t cutting through and needs to be replaced as soon as possible.
Rex: “The voters have never wanted Bill Shorten. Polling has confirmed that. The voters wanted Abbott out and replaced with Malcolm. They got what they want.”
And who do you want Rex? Albo? Or do you just have contempt for all of them?
Jack A Randa@87
Rex pines for Abbott.
victoria:
I guess what it says is that we are very poorly served by the media in this country!
[McConnell throws down the gauntlet: No Scalia replacement under Obama
The Senate majority leader’s challenge to the president’s nominating authority appears to be unprecedented.]
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/02/mitch-mcconnell-antonin-scalia-supreme-court-nomination-219248
That turtle needs to pull his head in.
[Scott Morrison compares Labor’s negative gearing plan to mining tax]
(A steal from ex-poster Tlbd) As Mandy Rice Davies said “He would say that wouldn’t he”.)
Tomorrow he’ll compare it to Humfrey Bears policy on something, anything.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-02-14/scott-morrison-criticises-labors-negative-gearing-plan/7166670
bemused
just to help dtt out —
[Turkey’s prime minister, Ahmet Davutoğlu, has confirmed that the country’s forces have struck Kurdish YPG militia targets in northern Syria..]
This might be what she’s talking about –
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/feb/13/turkey-shells-kurdish-forces-in-syria-in-retaliation-for-attack-on-border-posts
NICHOLAS – If the Greens are so brilliant, and Labor so hopeless, why is the green vote stuck around 10 – 15. They just don’t seem able to cut through. What’s the problem?
[88
bemused
Rex pines for Abbott.]
To be fair, I pine for Abbott too, as he meant a romping Labor victory. But I suppose Labor doing Turnbull slowly suits me too 😀
zoomster@92
Shelling is not bombing.
Nothing new.
JimmyDoyle@94
Rex’s pining is of a different character to yours. I share yours.
Bebothered: “Shelling is not bombing.” Technically true, but if you’re on the receiving end would it make any difference? Something goes bang and shrapnel flies everywhere and buildings and people are broken either way.
James Campbell @J_C_Campbell
Tim Wilson to quit as Human Rights Commissioner & run for Goldstein. @timwilsoncomau #auspol
https://t.co/lvDYGm8Cf0
I don’t think the LNP would win a campaign starting at 52-48. And if they go early it would instantly start at 50-50.
Election Now!
Doesn’t Newspoll sometimes go on Sunday when Ipsos comes out?