Fairfax-Ipsos: 52-48 to Coalition

The first Ipsos poll in three months provides more evidence of a slippage in support for Malcolm Turnbull and the Coalition government.

The latest Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers is another weaker result for the Coalition, whose two-party lead of 52-48 compares with 56-44 at the previous such poll in mid-November. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down four points to 44%, Labor is up three to 32% and the Greens are up two to 15%. Malcolm Turnbull takes a solid hit on his still very strong personal ratings, with approval down seven to 62% and disapproval up eight to 24%. Bill Shorten is little changed on 30% approval (up one) and 55% disapproval (down two), and his deficit on preferred prime minister has narrowed slightly, from 69-18 to 64-19. The poll was conducted Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1403.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,969 comments on “Fairfax-Ipsos: 52-48 to Coalition”

Comments Page 4 of 40
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  2. [Tough luck for the voters of Goldstein if he becomes the designated Lib.]

    If the majority are stupid enough to vote Liberal, they deserve him.

  3. feeney @ 132,

    ‘ Being from WA, is there any news about who might be in the running to replace MacTiernan in Perth?’

    Tim Hammond. He ran unsuccessfully against Mark Butler to be Federal President of the Labor Party last year.

    I met him when he was campaigning in NSW for our votes. I was very impressed. The only thing standing in his way is Affirmative Action. Which, as a woman, I would be disappointed to not see some flexibility to the policy engaged in when a clearly superior candidate puts their hand up.

    He’s also good eye candy. 😀

  4. Jack A Randa@138

    Dog, now I’m finding myself on Bebothered’s side – those two links P1 gave us make it pretty clear it’s the army shelling even though the word bombing is used in an early para in the Mirror.

    Yes, the kind of sloppy reporting we are used to.

    But in strategic terms it is a big difference.

  5. CTar1

    It’s a bit like Japan pre BK’s avatar arrival in Japan when it comes to QA/QC systems there. Currently working out what is possible to change vs what is desirable to change. All good fun.

  6. Went over to the Oz landing page to see if they had something on Newspoll. An article by Paul Kelly had this in the teaser:

    [Joyce was a no-brainer for National Party leader. ]

    First time in years I’ve agreed with something Kelly has written or said.

  11. [Latika M Bourke ‏@latikambourke 6m6 minutes ago
    Will be interesting to see if AG George Brandis appoints a second ‘Freedom Commissioner’ or lets the position go.]

    My tip is the latter.

  13. Look, you can tell the Coalition are on the slide again when the Channel 10 News Update during ‘I’m A Celebrity Get Me Out of Here!’ reports Scott Morrison’s criticism of Labor’s Negative Gearing and CGT policies with an obvious and barely-concealed sceptical tone.

  14. If both Melissa Parke and Alannah McTiernan are going can’t the Labor Party justify their Affirmative Action policy by having 50% of the replacement candidates be women? 😉

  15. Rossmore

    [Grattan, belatedly, almost as if it’s some kind of staggering revalation, acknowledging the ALP is back in the game:]

    To be fair to Grattan, I don’t think she ever had the rose tint for Turnbull.

  17. C@tmomma, 164

    That made me laugh 😀

    With regard to affirmative action in the ALP, how exactly does it work? Are there electorates earmarked for men and women?

  19. [161
    confessions
    My tip is the latter.    ]

    But those honest, hard-working, salt-of-the-earth men Tony Shepherd and Maurice Newman need to be rewarded for services to the party-I mean nation 😀

  21. To be serious for a moment I think that it should be stated that now is a very tricky time for Labor.

    It seems as though they have again got the electorate’s attention and are starting to be taken seriously once more.

    In fact, I think it is safe to say that it is only now that the electorate have shaken off their distaste for the RGR years, even though Labor led during the Abbott short term reign. That was reactionary support but now I think they are getting looked at seriously at last.

    So now is the time they have to be extra careful about every move they make and every step they take. The support is growing but it’s nowhere near locked in.

  22. shea mcduff@77

    KB
    Ta. I think I understood that.
    This:

    I also wonder of the Turnbull factor has altered the preference flows.


    is my wondering if Greens and “Others” preferences would be different from Abbott era to current on the grounds that Turnbull would be seen as less obnoxious to Greens than Abbott and the old 83% may not apply. Dog knows what “Others” would be.
    Any thoughts?

    The respondent preferences suggest this is true (especially given that the 52:48 is really 51:49, whereas respondent is 53:47) but respondent preferences have a long history of failing to deliver at elections. The Greens will preference Labor on their cards again though some Greens voters will make up their own minds.

  23. Airlines @ 167,

    ‘ With regard to affirmative action in the ALP, how exactly does it work? Are there electorates earmarked for men and women?’

    Women have to be pre-selected into 50% of winnable Labor seats, and thus be sat in parliament as such, give or take, by 2020 (I think).

  25. C@tmomma,

    I think they have the advantage of having the policies Australia wants. I also think Bill is much better when he goes hard, as he has recently.

    I take your point, but I don’t want them to get paralysed Turnbull disease.

  26. Airlines

    no, it’s more of an aspirational thing – the idea is that, after all preselections are closed, they check to see that the required number of women have been preselected for winnable seats, and if they haven’t, then preselections will be reopened.

    It does provide an incentive for factions to get their sh*t together and check that they’re promoting women, because preselections are painful processes.

    The AA policy has more real impact when it comes to the various committees each State branch runs, where it’s ensured that at least 40% of those elected are women (there’s usually more than enough candidates putting their hands up for these to ensure that that’s possible). This puts women in positions of power within the party.

  28. C@tmomma @ 171 – judging by the media’s coverage of Shorten’s negative-gearing announcement, I reckon you’re right that Labor is definitely beginning to be taken very seriously.

    They do have to be careful (e.g. to not get sucked into a war over refugees, and to not get into a tax-cut auction), but this is a good problem for Labor to have.

    I’m more optimistic than I have been in a long time. Even if Labor does lose the next election, I’ll be proud to have campaigned for this leadership team, which has been very bold policy-wise.

  31. Question@99

    I don’t think the LNP would win a campaign starting at 52-48. And if they go early it would instantly start at 50-50.

    Election Now!

    I think they would win a campaign starting at 48-52. 🙂

    Re #100 – Newspoll used to avoid clashing with Nielsen (usually) but I can find no evidence at all that Newspoll avoids clashing with Ipsos. So since it doesn’t seem to be tonight, could be tomorrow night, but I don’t know.

  33. LU
    Shiraz? I am working my way through a vintage port. I am not normally a port drinker, but this 1960 something vintage port is hitting the nail on the goolies.

  34. ” respondent preferences have a long history of failing to deliver at elections”. True, oh KB, but you ignore them at your peril all the same. See Queensland election 2015 where no “experts” (or any bookies) saw the ALP “win” (of a sort) coming. Maybe that shows that respondents will do what they’ve said they’d do in future – but who can tell? Nowt so queer as folk…

  36. Kevin @ 181

    [I think they would win a campaign starting at 48-52. :)]

    Maybe, but not if Turnbull does the DD thing with an election in early July, having called it on May 11. I think a 50+ campaign will expose the Liberals terribly.

  38. If the narrowing continues at this rate when do the lines intersect; when does Rex pull out his “labor would be further ahead if it wasn’t for shorten” post.

  41. Thanks KB @181

    [I think they would win a campaign starting at 48-52.]

    I think the ALP will win the campaign because they have better policy. A lot of what gave Turnbull his honeymoon was the expectation that he would move the LNP toward the ALP on a range of issues. Turnbull is likely to disappoint on the downside, Shorten is likely to surprise on the upside, god knows what will be leaked on Turnbull, and Morrison is well out of his depth.

    On the other side, government’s usually get 2 terms. (Or at least a minority government… which would last about 10 minutes with this mob).

    I hope it does start at ALP 52-48 🙂

  42. Bemused

    I posted the excellent link this morning. Go to it and you will know as much as I do. i would have though that being x airforce it is right up your street.

    The “alleged” bombing attack was on a Kurdish area and they reported drones as targetting.

    Now the site I linked had graphics which tell you if it is a bomb, artillery or a plane or an explosion. Quite handy but I guess accuracy might be wobbly. The US allies seem to put out a weekly bombing report, so it is less current than the rest of the information.

    Anyway it is as close to real time reporting as you can get.

    Go to it. You WILL fiond it interesting.

  43. If the campaign starts with the 2PP within a point or 2 either way then Murdoch’s minions will be caught between a rock and a hard place.
    They don’t like Mal but they like the ALP, and the Greens, even less.
    So the DT in particular will be unsure of how to jump on personalities at the very least.
    Unless ….there is a new Liberal leader.
    Hopefully, in their eyes, a new vibrant Tony.
    Then the path will be clear.

  44. TPOF

    [Maybe, but not if Turnbull does the DD thing with an election in early July, having called it on May 11. I think a 50+ campaign will expose the Liberals terribly.]

    If Turnbull goes DD at LNP 48-52 it would be ALP in a landslide.

  45. briefly

    Thanks for that info.

    I seem to remember that Hammond stood as a candidate for the National ALP Presidency, Vice-Presidency posts, and may have won one of them.

  47. Kato,
    Port is too sweet for this fella to consume in quantities, but a bit here and there is always welcome.

    Good shiraz is good… and it’s also finished, so have a good night 🙂

  48. Jack A Randa@184

    ” respondent preferences have a long history of failing to deliver at elections”. True, oh KB, but you ignore them at your peril all the same. See Queensland election 2015 where no “experts” (or any bookies) saw the ALP “win” (of a sort) coming. Maybe that shows that respondents will do what they’ve said they’d do in future – but who can tell? Nowt so queer as folk…

    Well they didn’t really do it in NSW because every pollster who polled respondent preferencing overestimated the impact of the difference there (though ReachTEL were pretty close). As far as public data we have no idea what it would have said in Queensland because there wasn’t any (though Possum and pals seem to have been exactly on track in their private polling).

    I’m quite comfortable in asserting that what happened in Queensland (2.5 point difference between polled and actual 2PP caused by preferencing shifts) will not happen in this federal election. Firstly Queensland has OPV and that allows someone who would never preference the Coalition in a fit to oscillate between preferencing Labor and exhausting their vote – oddly, it can make preferencing more volatile. Secondly we’re just not going to see the massive primary vote swings we saw in Queensland, which also flow on to a degree to preferencing.

    Sure it might be that respondent preferencing some day gets it completely right at federal level (it wasn’t too bad in 2013) but the historical record is against it and I expect it to remain so, at least unless How To Vote cards are someday banned.

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