A ReachTEL poll, which I presume to have been broadcast on the 6pm Seven News, shows the Coalition with a two-party lead of 54-46, down from 55-45 at the last such poll three weeks ago. Malcolm Turnbull holds a 75-25 on a preferred prime minister question that allows no option for undecided, partly reversing a blowout to 81-19 that raised eyebrows in the previous poll. The poll also finds a remarkably even spread of opinion on Barnaby Joyce as Deputy Prime Minister, with 32% expecting him to be very good or good, 34% expecting him to be average, and 34% expecting him to be poor or very poor. More to follow.
UPDATE: Full results on the ReachTEL site here. The primary votes are 48.1% for the Coalition (down 0.4%), 32.8% for Labor (up 1.0%) and 10.1% for the Greens (down 0.7%). The personal ratings find Malcolm Turnbull taking a solid hit, with his net approval rating of plus 15.3% comparing with results of between plus 31.5% and plus 41.4% in ReachTEL’s three previous polls on his watch.
[Simon Katich@788
As Voges nears a double hundred, in Wellington, having already scored a gazillion runs in recent times; it’s worth reminding everyone that vogues is 36 and selectors dropped Simon Katich at the age of 34 because he was too old.
I feel your pain Simon. ]
Both Katich and Voges are WA boys, they need a miracle and to be about 4000% better than the best the east coast has to offer to even get on the selection table. Katich even went to NSW because kids who’ve only accidentally picked up a cricket bat are more likely to get selection in NSW than a gun WA batsmen …
bemused
That research is true. Look at nightclub opening hours. 10:00 pm to midnight closing at around 3 to 4 in the morning.
They have adjusted to those sleep patterns so education certainly can.
As for it being video games I would like to see your evidence for that. Anecdotally I know that from my years as a teen the ones where parents denied such games and television still had the same sleeping patterns to cope with.
I am sure research takes things like that into account to describe natural sleep patterns as opposed to technology induced sleep patterns.
Insiders slamming Roberts and Ruddock. Good discussion today on all fronts.
victoria@800
Breathtaking! 😮
You fell for it hook line and sinker last night.
bemused
Fmd
Are you for real?
praeburn: Scalia dead at 79. https://t.co/Xbr9aDZHuF
So President Obama gets to make the pick to replace him. Its going to be interesting to see who that is.
SK,
Loved my some Kat, but he was on the downslope. Voges has been in the God Zone since the start of the 14/15 Shield (was pretty good in the 13/14 Shield too) after having been a fairly average batsman for over a decade. He was picked because he was in Bradmanesq form. Started in Tests like he belonged, struggled in England (which was surprising seeing as he has a great fc record there) and stepped back to freak this summer.
But…
All his runs have come against the minnows of WI and NZ. If he can make runs in the sub continent and against SA and Eng, we’ll know if he’s the real deal, but until some of the young guys really demand a spot. Some good young Qld players coming through.
I remember in my teenage years (no computer games, TV, only books) I would happily sleep until lunchtime even if I had gone to bed early.
[ daretotread@799
Mind you if my biological model has any validity, we should see older people (over 40) waking up early to cover the 1am- dawn shift. ]
I read that older people lose the ability of younger people to shut down their digestive system at night, which gets them up in the wee small hours to take a pee.
This results in an ideal situation to keep an eye out for danger while fertilising the pasture!
guytaur@802
Schoolkids go to nightclubs?
Sleep patterns can be restored to normal if they go to bed early and get a good nights sleep. Melatonin can assist in such adjustments.
lizzie
Yes the negative gearing discussion shows the danger for the LNP in policy. Its a minefield as Labor has taken control of the agenda.
bemused
I did not say school kids. I said teens. You know the ones over eighteen.
My point was if private business can adjust so can education departments.
I Listen to the science and not to wishful thinking like yours that just changing the time of going to bed is going to fix things.
The science says otherwise.
It’s just dawned on me that today is valentine’s day, hence this post and old photo of Malcolm and Lucy:
[Malcolm Turnbull
Page Liked · 1 hr ·
When I first asked Lucy to marry me she said, “Let’s wait until we grow up.” Well we didn’t wait long and now it is almost impossible to imagine, let alone remember, what it was like not to be together, so much so that I have a much clearer sense of “Lucy and me” than I do of “me”.]
https://www.facebook.com/malcolmturnbull/photos/a.121419221578.123742.53772921578/10154006476211579/?type=3&theater
victoria@805
Your comment and my response.
bemused@740
Ring a bell now?
dtt
[ Mind you if my biological model has any validity, we should see older people (over 40) waking up early to cover the 1am- dawn shift. ]
Which is exactly what happens. Oddly enough, the period of wakefulness in the middle of the night most people experience as they get older even has a name – it’s called “watch”
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2012/feb/24/sleep-twice-a-night-anxiety
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Segmented_sleep
Nastiest Man in the history of the supreme court dies and Obama gets a pick. I’ll try not to gloat, but this is BIG.
[Late nights with social media or stupid computer games might have a bit to do with it.]
Um, that’s a symptom. As I said, their sleep patterns have changed, so staying up late is natural to them.
[How would human sleep patterns have shifted so much since the days before artificial lighting when humans slept during the hours of darkness?]
They haven’t. A recent study has shown that in communities without artificial lighting, there is no difference in sleep patterns. In those societies, people stay up and talk around the fire.
guytaur@806
Proof that not all news is bad. 😐
Bit surprising Smith didn’t declare just before Voges got his double, worst captain ever, and it is very very hard to be worse than Clark.
Though the Senate will try to block his pick. Gonna be interesting.
don@809
Hadn’t heard that explanation before.
Intriguing.
bemused
[738
KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN
Posted Saturday, February 13, 2016 at 11:09 pm | PERMALINK
The negative gearing platform isn’t just about tax – it’s about reposition Bill Shorten in the public mind as a bold leader. In that, it will succeed admirably.
739
victoria
Posted Saturday, February 13, 2016 at 11:14 pm | PERMALINK
K17
You obviously missed the article by James Massola linked on previous page by TPOF]
Do i have to spell it out. Massola reporting of Shorten at the Labor conference was merely in terms of drumming up leadershit. I was being sarcastic. Or dont you get sarcasm?
[Bit surprising Smith didn’t declare just before Voges got his double, worst captain ever, and it is very very hard to be worse than Clark.]
I’m also unimpressed with Smith as captain. He strikes me as having a large entitlement factor.
guytaur@812
The teenage years start at 13 and 18yos are often still attending school.
vic:
You are being trolled by bemused who just wants to pick a fight with someone. Best ignoring him and scrolling past.
K17
Yes I see a lot of people on twitter with the same dilemma it like with Margaret Thatcher there is going to be people dancing in the streets despite the whole respect for the dead thing.
There is a case upcoming about abortion to revisit Roe v Wade. I think this torpedoes an overturning of that decision that the right was hoping to do if they won the Presidency.
Bemused
Yes good news for US society for sure 🙂
[Yes the negative gearing discussion shows the danger for the LNP in policy. Its a minefield as Labor has taken control of the agenda.]
On what issue hasn’t Labor led the agenda since the 2014 budget? Free Trade agreements maybe? I don’t think Labor feels much fear about FTAs. On budget cuts Labor has fought against and defeated most, on Medicare the government has nothing but retreats in the face of Labor opposition. On climate change Labor has stuck with the policy they knew was able to survive science and reality, whilst the government has been consistently found out. On tax Labor has led the way pushing for changes to super, CGT and Neg gearing, whilst fighting increased GST. Guess what the government is now moving towards. On subs Labor fought for Australian construction, and the government which was all hot to hand it to the Japanese have been in retreat trying to get Adelaide significantly involved.
You can go on and on. This is not a government, it is a particularly uninspiring opposition in exile. The Malcolm Myth has pumped them up, but that balloon has a slow leak.
[Peter Brent @mumbletwits 35m35 minutes ago
In 1949, Country party had 26% of Coalition HoR seats, in 1975 25%,1996 20%, 2013 17%. Yet still entitled to deputy PMship. #Insiders]
The paper on ‘natural’ human sleeping patterns –
http://www.cell.com/current-biology/abstract/S0960-9822(15)01157-4
[•Preindustrial societies in Tanzania, Namibia, and Bolivia show similar sleep parameters
•They do not sleep more than “modern” humans, with average durations of 5.7–7.1 hr
•They go to sleep several hours after sunset and typically awaken before sunrise
•Temperature appears to be a major regulator of human sleep duration and timing]
On teenage sleep rhythms —
[Biological sleep patterns shift toward later times for both sleeping and waking during adolescence — meaning it is natural to not be able to fall asleep before 11:00 pm.]
(One of many references, there are hundreds – not unexpected, given the extent of the research).
fess
Agreed. will do
rats
Opposition in exile. Thats a gem in an excellent post.
victoria@822
Really? 😮
ratsak
… “opposition in exile” …
Oooh, I like that! Hadn’t heard it before – if you just made it up, I hope it catches on.
ratsak
Sorry for typo in your name.
[Stephen Mayne
Stephen Mayne – @MayneReport
A very impressive performance by Chris Bowen on @InsidersABC just now. Really nailed negative gearing and CGT arguments, flogged Morrison.
2:27 PM – 13 Feb 2016
26 RETWEETS19 LIKES]
confessions@825
“>confessions@825
confessions@825
Wrong as usual.
A more thorough article by Dr Karl – note he stresses that teenagers CANNOT go to sleep earlier, even if they try, and that they also need more sleep.
http://www.abc.net.au/science/articles/2007/05/03/1913123.htm
…and also, of course, that our sleep patterns change over our lifetime. There’s nothing spooky about teenagers having different sleep patterns to babies!
[Various studies have shown that this sleep deprivation can have nasty side effects. It’s linked to rebellious behaviour, depressive symptoms, cigarette smoking, obesity, anxiety disorders and poor school marks. Indeed, being tired while taking an IQ test can drop 7 points off your score – and can drop performance in regular exams. And this sleep deprivation kills adolescents as well. On one hand, about 20% of all road deaths are caused by microsleeps, in turn caused by tiredness – but about half of all such fatigue-related road deaths happen to those aged 16-25.]
[Bit surprising Smith didn’t declare just before Voges got his double, worst captain ever, and it is very very hard to be worse than Clark.]
I suspect you’re smoking something legal in Amsterdam.
Why declare? The pitch is flat, the suns out, the Kiwis legs are getting tired and we have over 2 1/2 days to go. Bat and bat and let the Kiwis suffer. Hanif Mohammad ain’t there to save em.
(oh and Clarke was our best skipper since Taylor)
[This is not a government, it is a particularly uninspiring opposition in exile. ]
Exactly!
Hmmm finger must have twitched or something.
[I’m also unimpressed with Smith as captain. He strikes me as having a large entitlement factor.]
There is something very unappealing about him, that might well be it.
In evolutionary terms, I would expect that anyone much past puberty would be an adult.
Bemused
Please do not give offence. I never am rude to you. Cut the crap.
It is NOT hyperbole. Read what I wrote. I said might, -understand might.
As it happens just this morning it IS very, very dangerous. Turkey THIS MORNING is bombing Syria. The ball is now in Russia’s court.
If it uses its effective anti aircraft system to protect Assad, then it will take out a bunch of Turkish, Saudi and Egyptian planes. But what happens then?. If Turkey and Saudi respond by declaring war on Russia (Erdogan and his mad mate from Saudi seem mad enough to do this) then what will Russia do?
Have a look at the map. Russia cannot have a hostile power blocking the Dardanelles. It is much too great a threat to its security. But if it acts to take out Istanbul then it is war with NATO.
But what if Russia ignores the Turkish incursion into the territory of its ally Syria. This sets up for an ongoing quagmire in Syria and eventually the loss of an important strategic ally. Neither Russia NOR China will welcome this continued encirclement.
So we are in a very delicate situation. I have no idea at all who is pulling the strings. First there is the Kurdistan question. The USA, Israel and now Russia are all sympathetic to an independent or autonomous Kurdistan in Syria and possibly Iraq. Turkey is absolutely hostile. They fear an uprising by their own many millions of Kurds. The USA and Russia have both been supporting the Kurdiah rebels. But the USA has to choose between the Kurds and Turkey. I am not sure which way they will go. Are you?
Second there is the “sunnistan” issue.This is the goal of Saudi and Turkey. Create a Sunni (read Isis or Wahabi) land through Iraq and Syria, controlling all the oil. Iran will not like this at all nor will Russia. Nor I think will China. However will Russia take on Saudi? If Russia does take on Saudi, what will the USA do?
Israel also has a role but I am not sure what. They favour Kurdistan (always have) since the Kurds have been their allies against the Arab states.
Then there is the stange role of the USA. Now last month they were gungho for the Kurds, presumably largely influenced by Israel. This week I do not know.
And Finally for us here there is China. It has agreed it will have a role in Iraq but not Syria. It is a player too but cautious at this stage.
So Bemused this morning we have entered one of those danger points in world histroy where a foolish action or reaction could trigger world wide conflagration. The chaces of war are still small (probably less than 1%) but they are not neglibible, so it does your intelligence no favours by accusing others of hyperbole.
The Russian reaction will be critical. We will see.
K17
A dilemma for the GOP. Go the block in an election year and lose votes to the Democrats by making abortion the number one election issue and then getting a more radical pick when Clinton or Sanders has four years to get a nomination through.
Or go quite and hope the base still turns out so that low voter turnout in the general from the GOP base does not lose it for the GOP.
daretotread@843
Your posts on such matters are always alarmist and seem to assume worst case scenarios as likely to happen.
[Why declare?]
I think you are, at least in part, misreading my comment. I don’t think he should declare, but it would serve the useless smug bars@ard right if the Kiwis bat through the end only a couple down.
I was suggesting I was surprised he didn’t declare just to deprive Voges of the highlight …
I don’t indulge in criminal past times so no smoking this AM for me, but I did have one to many glasses of wine in support of the local industry last night.
Clarke was a useless tosser and I wouldn’t have thought you could possibly find a worst captain, but we have.
[There is something very unappealing about him, that might well be it.]
There’s an arrogance about him that goes way beyond what you’d expect from a professional sports person. I was looking forward to his captaincy when he was announced as Clark’s replacement, but you’re right, there’s something very unappealing about him.
bemused
DTT is correct.
Extremely so. Relations with Turkey and Russia are at an all time low because Turkey has shot down a Russian airplane.
ABC News 24 is reporting Russia is describing the situation as the start of another cold war.
[Craig to Voges, SIX, another maximum! Skips down the track, gets under the length ball and lofts it miles over long-on.]
And people would have had him dropped at the start of summer … idiots.
bemused
Sorry hit post by accident. That means how Russia reacts is critical and if there is less than a total sane reaction WWIII will be possible.
Remember the point about the cold war was always that if Russia US relations went down too far as we saw with the Cuba Missile crisis things get real dangerous real quick.