A ReachTEL poll, which I presume to have been broadcast on the 6pm Seven News, shows the Coalition with a two-party lead of 54-46, down from 55-45 at the last such poll three weeks ago. Malcolm Turnbull holds a 75-25 on a preferred prime minister question that allows no option for undecided, partly reversing a blowout to 81-19 that raised eyebrows in the previous poll. The poll also finds a remarkably even spread of opinion on Barnaby Joyce as Deputy Prime Minister, with 32% expecting him to be very good or good, 34% expecting him to be average, and 34% expecting him to be poor or very poor. More to follow.
UPDATE: Full results on the ReachTEL site here. The primary votes are 48.1% for the Coalition (down 0.4%), 32.8% for Labor (up 1.0%) and 10.1% for the Greens (down 0.7%). The personal ratings find Malcolm Turnbull taking a solid hit, with his net approval rating of plus 15.3% comparing with results of between plus 31.5% and plus 41.4% in ReachTEL’s three previous polls on his watch.
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lizzie
Mark Kenny has let me down. Even when his articles are boring, his language is usually pretty sophisticated.
But this is a new use of “scandalised”:
Few would contest that the government is not better off for the removal of scandalised ministers.]
Surely the correct term is scandalated…
Bemused, your only contact with young people these days is when you are yelling at them to get off your lawn. The scientific evidence about the different sleep cycles of people at different ages is irrefutable. We need to offer high school students later starting times with primary school students.
guytaur@848
Cold war, yes.
seanmdav: If Donald Trump wants to end this race tonight, he’ll vow that his first act as president will be appointing Ted Cruz to the Supreme Court.
guytaur@850
The present situation does not remotely approach the Cuban Missile Crisis.
[Remember the point about the cold war was always that if Russia US relations went down too far as we saw with the Cuba Missile crisis things get real dangerous real quick.]
Russia is a joke that still thinks it is a world power, the greatest risk is them doing something stupid before they realise they are slightly less significant than NZ.
bemused
Turkey is part of Nato. That means Russia goes to war with Turkey it goes to war with the West. Thats World War III
Nicholas@852
Wrong as usual.
My contact with young people ranges from my young granddaughters through to tertiary students and new graduates.
I have never yelled at anyone of any age walking on my lawn.
guytaur@857
Not going to happen beyond perhaps some minor skirmishes and maybe a few planes shot down.
“Russia is a joke that still thinks it is a world power, the greatest risk is them doing something stupid before they realise they are slightly less significant than NZ.”
I reckon New Zealand is more respected in the world than Australia is at the moment.
Bemused.
what i wrote about is real and is from my studies at Flinders University, which has some of the top research into sleep and sleep problems. CR is to do with the changes in levels of various substances in the body.
In this, you are wrong and I am right.
One of these is melatonin. Older people find it harder to get to sleep and they have ‘lighter’ sleep than younger people, which is why melatonin supplements can help.
http://www.flinders.edu.au/sabs/psychology/research/labs/sleep/
This is the Flinders Sleep Research unit. Which reminds me, I better get off my lazy butt and go back to uni and finish my course!
766
Nicholas
As one who has known Alannah for about 40 years, I can assure you that you are mistaken. She wants to help Labor win the state election. This is a very tall order. We have to add 10 seats to our current 20 to change the Government. The swings required are large and the Liberal machine is formidable, as is their budget. But go right ahead. Deride Labor. It’s your usual gig. You can content yourself with that. We will try to defeat the Liberals.
Bemused
The problem with the “cold war” idea is that both Saudi and Turkey are led by hot heads with little stratgic sense.
Also Russia is not strong enough any more to effectivley operate a cold war. This required equal balance between the USSR and USA. Russia and China TOGETHER may give that balanace, but I am not sure we in Australia would be happy with such a situation.
So I suspect Russia will need to act like the upper medium nation it is, and bolster its borders using all means at its disposal.
My own guess is that the USA will avoid a hot war with NATO, which means it will pressure Turkey to keep the Bosphorus open. This will ensure a localised hot war within Syria. Possibly also Saudi. I think Saudi has passed its use by date for the USA and the new king (or his son) is a madman. I expect the USA would actually like Saudi to be given a beating because that would force regime change (place coup) and get a more US friendly and sane King.
I am thinking that Iran and China (yes China) will block the Sunnistan idea but in Iraq NOT Syria.
bemused
there is no ‘normal’ sleeping pattern. A baby isn’t abnormal because it sleeps in short bursts.
Just as we can’t judge others’ voting intentions by our own, and need polls to give us a truer picture, we can’t judge others’ needs by what works for us.
Adolescents need more sleep, stay up later and thus wake later. That’s simply a fact, and denying it – as the Dr Karl article points out – has detrimental consequences.
http://auselections.com/
A new poll aggregator has made their debut!
[As one who has known Alannah for about 40 years]
I’ve only spoken to her a couple of times, although at one point I worked with her next door neighbour.
Like most thinks young Nicky spews about Labor his claim is just ridiculous. I don’t know about Melissa in Freo but the amount of love young nicky has for her suggests, contrary to all that information I have, that there is something wrong with her and she should have been challenged for pre-selection …
Sohar
[ I reckon New Zealand is more respected in the world than Australia is at the moment. ]
Absolutely. I used to be proud to be an Australian when travelling overseas, and people who found out you were from Australia used to be happy to know you. Now, what you mostly get is frosty silence, puzzled looks or embarrassed laughter. They still can’t believe we elected Abbott, and were very quick to recognize that Turnbull is no better.
I guess it is because most countries seem to have more objective reporting of what goes on in Australia than Australians themselves have access to.
This from the Flinders uni website.
[The Circadian (24-hour) Rhythms of Delayed Sleep Phase Disorder (DSPD)
Night “owls” (evening types) stay up later at night and sleep in late in the morning when they have the opportunity to do so. This late sleep pattern is associated with a circadian rhythms timed later than normal making it difficult to get to sleep and wake up at normal times. During a normal work week they have difficulty getting to sleep early enough to get sufficient sleep by the time they have to awaken in the morning to get to work, school, or other commitments. They have difficulty arising at these early times and do not feel proficient or sociable until much later in the day. When given the opportunity to catch up on this lost sleep (weekends or holidays) they easily sleep-in very late. However, this exacerbates their difficulty when returning to their normal schedule because it further delays their circadian rhythms. http://theconversation.edu.au/forget-bob-geldof-this-is-why-you-dont-like-mondays-828
This pattern is common in adolescents and young adults and significantly interferes with their daytime alertness, mood, and productivity. Delayed Sleep Phase Disorder is a more extreme degree of evening type symptoms. DSPD sufferers have a sleep period 3-6 hours later than normal and find it almost impossible to shift their sleep/wake pattern earlier to a more normal time. We are presently investigating the basic chronobiology and sleepiness rhythms of DSPD sufferers in the Sleep Laboratory using a novel methodology. It consists of an 80 hour (long weekend) bed-rest routine free of time cues in which sleep/wake alternates in 20/40 minute periods respectively throughout this period. In this way we will measure the endogenous circadian rhythms of core body temperature, melatonin, cortisol, hunger drive, objective and subjective sleepiness, and cognitive performance capacity. The main aim will be to evaluate how quickly the rhythms delay in DSPD participants compared to normal and thus determine the endogenous period lengths of these rhythms. If, as we hypothesize, the period lengths are very much longer in DSPD, more effective therapies than those presently used can be designed and tested.
Funding support:
Flinders University, 2011.
Principal Investigators:
Professor Leon Lack
Dr Helen Wright
Dr Michael Gradisar
Dr Sally Ferguson, The University of SA
Associate Professor Helen Burgess, Rush University Medical School, USA
]
Not going to happen beyond perhaps some minor skirmishes and maybe a few planes shot down.
Bemused’s assessment at 859 is the most likely scenario but it is by no means a sure thing. The war in Syria has been very dangerous since the Russians got involved. We have the Russians, Turkey, Saudi, the Americans and some of their allies, plus Daesh. Some of the principals in this conflist are fanatics, some are probably mad. It has all the ingredients of something that could quickly ignite and escalate.
Bemused et al
It is very, very early days but it looks as if the Russians are diverting their energies towards the Isis areas and towards securing gains in Aleppo, rather than direct battle with Turkey. Provided the attacks are on the Kurdish groups, neither Russia, nor Assad have a strong investment in protecting them. They are sort of allies this week but last week they were enemies and next week perhaps again.
However the real test is going to come in North Aleppo. Will Russia and Turkey come into direct conflict?
Puff, the Magic Dragon.@861
I love your certainty in “you are wrong and I am right”!
People have sleep patterns disrupted by a number of things and “jet lag” is a classic case.
You are certainly right about the benefits of Melatonin and I use it myself, but not on a regular basis, just when I need to. It is also recommended to assist in recovery from jet lag.
Sleep patterns AFAIAA are largely driven by light and its influence on the naturally occurring hormone melatonin. Bright lights and computer screens late at night will cause disruption.
Someone (lizzie?) mentioned being able to sleep in till midday. I can do the same but it is not good quality sleep and just a waste of time really. I find if I get up when the alarm goes off and get some exercise I am fine. If I lie in bed I feel drwsy and doze off again. Exercise plays a big part I am sure. But it doesn’t take much, just getting up preparing breakfast and doing a few chores does the trick.
Airlines
[ A new poll aggregator has made their debut! ]
“Emma Chisit”???? Surely that’s gotta be a joke site?
Salon: GOP candidates, conservative media in disbelief over Scalia death
https://t.co/d2UPgP4FHn
daretotread@863
I think we live on different planets.
befuddled
[ I love your certainty in “you are wrong and I am right”! ]
There’s these things called “facts” … very handy in an argument. You should try them some time.
One of Scalia’s memorable moments
AriBerman: I’ll never forget how Scalia called Voting Rights Act “perpetuation of racial entitlement” [pg 8 Give Us the Ballot] https://t.co/Ep8snIZ4sm
zoomster@864
Babys are very busy when asleep developing their brains.
Most I have had contact with will sleep through the night and have a couple of naps during the day.
Light plays a major part in influencing melatonin and hence sleep patterns.
Experience with ‘regime change’ in the Middle East in recent decades has been less than reassuring.
Steve
Yes it is a dangerous situation. I think the real key is Turkey.
If they actually declared Russia a hostile nation and blocked the Bosphorus, then I do think we would trigger WWIII. Russia would be effectivley locked in.
Hopefully sanity will prevail.
While I am quoting Americans
algore: CSIRO’s contributions have been globally recognized& the decision to cut this effort should be revisited.Statement: https://t.co/kiR0bHgkup
daretotread@870
Your posts made me go to the MSM looking for reports of Turkey mounting a full scale invasion of Syria.
Nothing.
In fact Syria was well down in the list of world news.
Let’s see how the cease fire agreement just negotiated plays out.
guytaur:
Republicans are saying the next President should announce Scalia’s replacement. Totally insane, imagine if Obama were a GOP POTUS.
bemused
In this case, it’s not that you are right and everyone else is therefore wrong (which seems to be the implication of your post to Puff).
It’s that you are right and every scientist who has studied the issue are wrong.
You’d make a great climate change denialist!
daretotread@879
The Bosphorus is the subject of an international treaty.
Turkey would get no support and its not going to happen.
Bemused
Exactly what is wrong with my analysis above? I think I live on a planet that reads and yours is just gut instinct cira 1987.
Russia is not as strong as the USSR – do you dispute this?
The cold ware was based on blance and MAD. Do you dispute this?
Saudi has gone crackers. You are aware I assume of the new Crown prince and 30 year old hot head and defence minister who started the war with yemen. Their oil production is huting Russia but also the US. he is also not as pro US as other Saudi rulers and has even been cosying up to China. I seriously assume a US supported palace coup is in the wings – after all the curnt defacto ruler Prince Mohommed must have 150 first cousins who all want to be king and have as good or better claim than the son of a very, very much younger son.
So what planet are you on my friend.
Confessions
BBCBreaking: Republicans and Democrats sharply disagree over when successor for Supreme Court Justice Scalia should be nominated https://t.co/NnFazRhH0H
Yes its insane. However I do think it means the GOP is reacting out of shock and not rationality. Blocking President Obama’s Constitutional right to appoint a successor will remind voters of everything that is wrong with insider Washington politics.
Senator Sanders campaign could well get a big boost.
Bemused Turkey shells Kurdish Held Airbase in Syria
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/02/turkey-shells-kurdish-held-airbase-syria-aleppo-160213160929706.html
[Senator Sanders campaign could well get a big boost.]
Boy I hope not.
zoomster@883
I just liked Puffy’s unequivocal statement. Simple as that.
Now you are trying to tag me as a climate change denialist. Your evidence please?
The Turkey viewpoint
MahirZeynalov: Turkey is frustrated that Russian/Syrian forces are taking over Azaz corridor, only supply route to rebels. View Kurds as accomplices.
bemused
yes, melatonin plays a part, and it is the adolescents’ melatonin levels which affect their sleep patterns.
The answer isn’t to artificially alter the amount of melatonin so that adolescents conform to an acceptable pattern.
And I repeat: I was talking about an ideal education system. It isn’t necessarily one which can be adopted – although altering school times to better suit the needs of adolescents is certainly possible, particularly where there are separate senior campuses.
The top story on rt.com is
Turkish artillery renews attack on Syrian govt army positions in Aleppo – report
daretotread@885
Your planet is a gloomy fear filled little world.
Mine is more optimistic in outlook.
zoomster
Altering School times for adolescents comes into the same category as business having different opening times to avoid the peak hour rush.
You know it makes sense but you know the inertia of doing the same thing means its not going to happen.
bemused
Dear, dear – having comprehension problems?
I didn’t say you were one (I know you are not). But on this issue, you are displaying all the traits of one – ignoring the science because it happens to disagree with your prejudices.
Bemused
You are wrong!!!!!!!!
I am following events closely. Turkey is bombing in Aleppo and Latakia. They bombed the airbase just captured by the Kurds Menagh.
Try this link
http://syria.liveuamap.com/en/2016/13-february-turkish-artillery-continues-to-shell-ypg-positions
The Bosphoros is governed by a treaty, BUT it allows turkey to block access to any ships where there is or MIGHT be hostile intent. If Russia activley attacks Turkish military in Syria they MIGHT (MIGHT, MIGHT not WILL get it) block the channel.
billie@887
Thanks billie, I will read that with interest.
Barrie Cassidy does adopt a somewhat different approach when he is talking on his political segment on ABC radio in Melbourne each week. More critical in dissecting what is happening with the coalition. On Insiders, not so much
It appears that the kiwis are blubbering directly after accusing the Australian team of being crybabies….
Black caps fuming as Voges cashes in
zoomster
Re Vic State politics. Do you have a view how the govt is travelling re the v line problems and the proposed “sky rail” on the Dandenong and possibly Frankston lines?