BludgerTrack: 53.1-46.9 to Coalition

A dip in support for the Coalition recorded by Morgan makes its presence felt in the latest weekly poll aggregate reading, although the Coalition is still projected as on track to retain its thumping majority from 2013.

A fairly pronounced narrowing in the Coalition’s lead may now be observed on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate charts, thanks mostly to an unusually soft result for the Turnbull government in this week’s Morgan result. This shows up as a 0.6% move to Labor on two-party preferred since last week, but it’s only made a slight difference on the seat projection, which credits the Coalition with a net gain of one seat since the 2013 election despite a 0.4% lower two-party vote. The aggregate also records a lift in support for the Greens, who had had some of the wind taken out of their sails when Malcolm Turnbull became Prime Minister. The addition of new figures from Essential Research to the leadership ratings results in essentially no change to an overall picture of Turnbull enjoying massive but nonetheless slightly reduced leads over Bill Shorten on both net approval and preferred prime minister.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,097 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.1-46.9 to Coalition”

Comments Page 14 of 22
1 … 13 14 15 … 22

  1. pedant

    [ Normal employees who wasted the boss’s money on winery crawls or helicopter joy rides would be out on their ears in no time flat.]
    And the thieving bastards even have a get out of jail free card when caught . The “Minchin Protocol” . The “outrageous” part of Slipper is the selective non application of such an unprincipled principle.
    A Nick @#@@#% Minchin, one of the hench orcs that gave us The Abbott.

  3. Millenial

    [ A song for bemused and Player One: ]

    😀

    confessions

    [ William needs to give them their own thread. That way they can carry on their childish insults to each other without the rest of us having to scroll past. ]

    Only one of us does childish insults. But I can certainly understand the desire to scroll past those 🙂

  4. [Which makes me wonder whether the police investigation into the Ashby case is yet another factor Mr Turnbull needs to take into account when contemplating election dates.]

    Isn’t this high farce? Contemplating election dates based upon whether or not one of your own mob might be called up to face the music court-wise isn’t exactly the definition of the grown up government we were promised.

  5. Player One@653

    Millenial

    A song for bemused and Player One:

    confessions

    William needs to give them their own thread. That way they can carry on their childish insults to each other without the rest of us having to scroll past.


    Only one of us does childish insults. But I can certainly understand the desire to scroll past those

    I am sure your admission will be appreciated.

  7. confessions@654

    Which makes me wonder whether the police investigation into the Ashby case is yet another factor Mr Turnbull needs to take into account when contemplating election dates.


    Isn’t this high farce? Contemplating election dates based upon whether or not one of your own mob might be called up to face the music court-wise isn’t exactly the definition of the grown up government we were promised.

    It is just speculative.

  9. TPOF @ 646: Nobody came out of the Ashby case with any credit, but my view, widely held I suspect, was that they all deserved each other.

    As to whether MPs’ text messages should all be published: you couldn’t have a system for that, but if they are all sending Slipper style messages and worse, which I could well believe, I wouldn’t lament at all if somehow, Wikileaks style, they all came out and ruined the reputations of the senders. People who send text messages which would cause them damage if revealed are idiots, pure and simple, and I don’t want idiots running the country.

  10. All these problems besetting Turncoat are left behind by Abbott and his immoral brand of leadership in opposition and government. It’s almost as if he knew he was going to be dumped and left multiple catastrophes behind like ISIS evacuating a stronghold.

  12. [It’s almost as if he knew he was going to be dumped and left multiple catastrophes behind like ISIS evacuating a stronghold.]

    I doubt he was that clued in. This to me looks like the leftovers from the Howard era of refusal to renew and deal with those internal party dynamics.

  16. pedant @ 659

    Slipper was an unlovely guy, but he did not deserve what happened to him – which only happened because he took up the Speaker’s position and low-level cover-up was replaced with savage investigation and undermining. The fact is that if someone else sent such a text it would be so unremarkable that nobody would comment on it unless it was part of a sequence of sexual harassment of a woman (not a man) by discomforting her.

    It would be different if these aggressive pursuits had a chastening effect on others contemplating or doing something similar. But they don’t. They either happen to achieve a political objective or are undertaken to satisfy some kind of blood lust for victims. And Slipper was nowhere in the same ball park as Bronwyn in abuse of entitlements (whether technically lawful or not).

    By all means go after the crooks. But there are so many rorts and rip-offs that are not addressed because too many people do it – like sharing a flat in Canberra while Parliament is sitting and pocketing the balance of a very generous travel allowance. Even better if your wife owns the property, which is negatively geared to maximise the taxman’s contribution, while collecting a derisory rent.

    What really gets me about these cases are that they are not about honesty, integrity or anything else that really matters. They happen only when there is political capital to be made by one side or the other in pursuing them. There is often more immorality in the way the alleged malefactor is pursued than there is in the alleged misconduct or crime.

  17. confessions at 662

    I’m sure he was not that aware. It just makes me wonder how much worse things would get this year for Abbott if he had stayed.

  18. So on ABC i just saw a clip with Bill Shorten in QT. He was referring to some document by reference # that was about / from the investigation into Roberts?

    They cut to MalPM and he did NOT look happy. Anyone see that in QT today? Impression i came away with was that someone in the PM’s office is leaking near real time info?? Much badness for the coalition if thats the case.

  19. TPOF

    [pedant @ 659

    Slipper was an unlovely guy, but he did not deserve what happened to him – which only happened because he took up the Speaker’s position]
    + a brazillion on that point.

  23. imacca

    This article might help

    [ Follow
    Phillip Coorey ✔@PhillipCoorey
    Stuart Robert becomes a pawn in Turnbull-Abbott civil war http://www.afr.com/news/politics/stuart-robert-becomes-a-pawn-in-the-turnbullabbott-civil-war-20160211-gmrhz5 … via @FinancialReview
    9:00 PM – 11 Feb 2016
    Photo published for Stuart Robert becomes a pawn in Turnbull-Abbott civil war
    Stuart Robert becomes a pawn in Turnbull-Abbott civil war
    One of the clumsier acts by senior members of the Turnbull government in recent days was to try shift the blame for Stuart Robert’s trip to China on to Tony Abbott and his former chief of of staff,…
    afr.com
    21 21 Retweets 11 11 likes]

  25. [I’m sure he was not that aware. It just makes me wonder how much worse things would get this year for Abbott if he had stayed.]
    An interesting question for sure. 🙂

  27. TPOF @ 666: Whether Mr Slipper deserved what happened to him or not is ultimately a matter of subjective judgement. I respect your right to hold your view, mine is really based on the fact that every bad thing that happened to him was something that ultimately he had brought on himself. And I’d have to say by far the worst thing he did in my view was agreeing to be a turncoat. And I had exactly the same view of the awful Mal Colston, who wound up paying a similar price.

    And I thoroughly agree with you about the essential randomness about who gets pursued and caught, and who doesn’t – thought presumably politicians understand that’s the way things work, and the smart or honest ones realise that the only way to be safe is to be squeaky clean. Which isn’t that hard if you turn your mind to it: thousands of public servants manage it, as did most federal politicians up until about 40 years ago.

    That’s one reason I’d like to see these issues dealt with by a federal anti-corruption commission, rather than being hidden from view by things like the Minchin protocol.

    Incidentally, the ANAO was reportedly doing an audit into the Finance Department’s handling of the Bishop case: I hope someone will be following that up in Senate Estimates.

  30. Actually, on reflection I’m not 100% sure now whether it was the Finance Department’s handling of the Bishop case or the AFP’s that was being audited by the ANAO.

  32. Thanks for that everybody. You know, with ScoMo being so obvious about “supporting” Roberts it wouldn’t surprise me if he’s actually a major leaker.

  33. Oops before i go

    [Jeff Morris
    Jeff Morris – ‏@jmwhistleblower

    Alan Jones, at 7.40 this morning referred to a text sent to him in error from Canberra saying there would be a Double Dissolution on 2 July]

  34. [I respect your right to hold your view, mine is really based on the fact that every bad thing that happened to him was something that ultimately he had brought on himself.]

    This however is ultimately a subjective thing. For me, Pyne and Hockey, both senior frontbenchers at the time, cat calling after PM Gillard in the corridoor of Parliament House and treating her with disrepect publicly is waaaay more worse than Slipper sharing a few blokesville texts with a private individual.

  36. confessions @ 684: Messrs Pyne and Hockey behaved appallingly on that occasion. It would serve Mr Hockey right if that clip is doing the rounds of the diplomatic corps in Washington. The whole Abbott era was a warning against letting student politicians get into positions of power.

    And as I’ve said here before, the way in which Mr Abbott allows the premises of Parliament House to be vandalised under his nose on the night he lost his job last year should rightly disqualify him from ever holding public office again: not because it was so wicked, but because it was so juvenile.

  38. [Tim Wilson is considering running in Goldstein. Does he just insert himself into every Victorian preselection?]

    Tim Wilson, an attention seeking Liberal, I would never have guessed he was always so professional.

  39. Victoria @ 683: For a government which is getting the wobbles a bit, a seven week campaign would really be very risky. Apart from anything else, if the ALP is planning to crank up a grassroots campaign operation based on friend to friend phone calls, Obama campaign style, you would think that would benefit from a longer campaign period.

  41. And incidentally, the whole brouhaha over the GST has very effectively knocked the TURC and follow up from it off the front pages, at least for the time being.

  42. pedant:
    [It would serve Mr Hockey right if that clip is doing the rounds of the diplomatic corps in Washington.]

    But it won’t. And isn’t that the whole point? We’re obsessing about Slipper’s private texts while letting public documented displays of misogyny go unchecked.

    I don’t care about what Slipper said about women’s privates. He expressed those views in a private text message. Meanwhile we have elected members behaving publicly in a way that can only be construed as anti woman and disrespecting the office of PM. Surely that’s worth getting up in arms about if we’re going to go down the OMG Slipper! route?

  49. Poor Malcolm Turnbull:

    * He’s saddled with a back-bench that includes some big haters with large grudges, the expertise to pursue them and the nastiness to twist the knife.

    * His ministers are misbehaving or resigning to tend to their roses.

    * He can’t do anything much because, while an 8-vote majority in the party room looks comfortable, it isn’t really.

    * Business backers want him to increase the GST, and forget about them not paying any tax. The public wants the reverse.

    * He’s gutted just about everything he ever stood for.

    * And now he’s got Barnarby Joyce as his Deputy PM.

    Turnbull’s weak, can’t lead, and can’t move. Urbane smalltalk, leather jackets and an insouciant smile just don’t cut it with the hardheads.

Comments Page 14 of 22
1 … 13 14 15 … 22

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *