A fairly pronounced narrowing in the Coalition’s lead may now be observed on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate charts, thanks mostly to an unusually soft result for the Turnbull government in this week’s Morgan result. This shows up as a 0.6% move to Labor on two-party preferred since last week, but it’s only made a slight difference on the seat projection, which credits the Coalition with a net gain of one seat since the 2013 election despite a 0.4% lower two-party vote. The aggregate also records a lift in support for the Greens, who had had some of the wind taken out of their sails when Malcolm Turnbull became Prime Minister. The addition of new figures from Essential Research to the leadership ratings results in essentially no change to an overall picture of Turnbull enjoying massive but nonetheless slightly reduced leads over Bill Shorten on both net approval and preferred prime minister.
Tom
[let’s wait for the outcome of the Ashby investigation…]
If there ever is one!
How appropriate
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3rmw3IROt-s
Tom.
[As the climate warms, the hoary peatlands that blanket Tasmania’s west are drying out, and burning up. The cool moist conditions they rely on are disappearing but the peatlands are exacting a small revenge on the species responsible.
While fires have typically burned across peatlands with little affect, Professor David Bowman said that as they dry, the centuries-old organic soils beneath are starting to smoulder.
In turn, public health experts say the smouldering peatlands are letting off nasty smoke, exacerbating the already serious threats posed by bushfires.
…Prof. Bowman predicts peat soils will likely be relegated to localised patches along creek lines, and on lower slopes by the end of this century. Outside of these refugia, he expects large tracts of Tasmania’s western wilderness, much of it World Heritage Listed, will be replaced by “scrublands on gravelly ridges”.
…And out of the ashes of Tasmania’s peatlands, a new threat is rising.
“The odd bushfire, you know, every so often, is typical basically anywhere in Australia,” said Dr Fay Johnston, a Menzies Institute researcher at the University of Tasmania. “But here we’ve got vegetation and soil burning that doesn’t normally burn. It’s more than just smoke from a passing vegetation fire, and that can be bad enough.”
“The smoke mixture has a higher load of toxic ingredients, including suspended particles and products of incomplete combustion – hydrocarbons, volatile organic acids, a whole suite of things – that in their own right are highly irritating.”
“With peat fires, you tend to have a bigger exposure and you tend to have an exposure that goes on for longer,” she said.]
https://newmatilda.com/2016/02/10/tasmanias-burning-peatlands-take-us/
Tom – A ripper find. It’s definitely 😆 stuff.
Do the watermelons in the vid mean the Greens will take him out?
[ hiking the Goods and Services Tax (GST) will do nothing to deliver growth. ]
Morrison shown to either be lying or incompetent – or both.
So much for the ‘great white hope’ of the tories.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers. Another bumper edition today.
Mark Kenny looks at what’s in front of Turnbull with the enforced ministerial rearrangement.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/musical-chairs-turnbull-forced-to-reshuffle-as-barnaby-rises-20160211-gmrss0.html
Kenny goes on to say that Turnbull promised to advance Australia but retreated under fire.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/malcolm-turnbull-promised-to-advance-australia-but-has-retreated-under-fire-20160211-gmrdii.html
Jess Irvine on how to hit the rich where it really hurts.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/how-to-hit-the-rich-where-it-really-hurts-20160211-gmr7c8.html
Peter Hartcher on Morrison’s momentous announcement that doing nothing is not an option.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/doing-nothing-is-not-an-option-on-tax-reform-says-morrison-20160211-gmrwpj.html
And Peter Martin digs into Morrison’s base intentions on the bullet we have apparently dodged.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/scott-morrisons-tax-change-would-have-taken-from-the-poor-and-given-to-the-rich-20160211-gmrnc7.html
Malcolm Turnbull’s popularity paradox. Quite an interesting article this one.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2016/02/07/turnbull-gst-refugee_n_9183998.html?utm_hp_ref=australia
What happened to Australia being “open for business” asks Stephen Koukoulas.
http://thekouk.com/blog/what-happened-to-australia-being-open-for-business.html
It seems that the government’s expensive “work for the dole” scheme just doesn’t work.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/work-for-the-dole-has-little-effect-on-finding-work-review-20160211-gmrpvw.html
“View from the Street” examines the pedigree og Greg Hunt’s “prestigious” award and asks whether Barnaby will be the Nationals’ last ever leader.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/view-from-the-street/view-from-the-street-will-barnaby-joyce-be-our-last-ever-nationals-leader-20160211-gmrpnl.html
Lenore Taylor straps herself in in readiness for political life with the New Deputy PM.
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/feb/11/barnaby-joyce-the-man-who-threatened-johnny-depps-dogs-voted-deputy-pm
Section 2 . . .
And Michelle Grattan tells us Fiona Nash got eh deputy job because of her reputation as the “Barnaby Whisperer”!
https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-the-nationals-install-a-barnaby-whisperer-as-they-pass-on-the-family-farm-54549
How the GOP created Donald Trump. Scary but unsurprising. There is some delightful prose in this article.
http://www.smh.com.au/money/investing/woolworths-is-still-in-the-wilderness-20160203-gmkp7l.html
And Trump is no longer alaughing matter says this journo.
http://www.theage.com.au/world/us-election/trump-circus-no-longer-a-laughing-matter-20160210-gmqy9c.html
ASIC says that Clive Palmer may face criminal charges over Queensland Nickel.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/asic-says-clive-palmer-could-face-criminal-charges-20160210-gmqzd9.html
The GST increase just isn’t worth it according to a couple of Treasury studies.
http://thenewdaily.com.au/money/2016/02/12/gst-worth-treasury/
The stars line up to replace Robb in Goldstein.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/world-war-iii-downer-and-wilson-battle-it-out-to-replace-andrew-robb-20160211-gmrp3n.html
You have to hand it to Albert Einstein!
http://www.smh.com.au/technology/sci-tech/albert-einstein-was-right–100-years-on-20160211-gmr9ja.html
A new range of Aussie banknotes is coming.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/currencies/new-5-wattle-banknote-arrives-september-20160211-gmrjgc.html
It looks like there might be a significant change to Senate voting methods getting up.
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/feb/12/senate-voting-changes-coalition-wins-over-nick-xenophon-and-greens
Peter Wicks writes another disturbing piece on child sexual abuse and how hw Liberal Party has run protection for the perpetrating institutions.
http://wixxyleaks.com/true-believers-the-liberal-party-the-sexual-abuse-royal-commission/
Section 3 . . .
The anti dumping commission cans Italian tomatoes!
http://www.smh.com.au/business/consumer-affairs/all-italian-tomato-exporters-to-australia-slapped-with-antidumping-measures-20160211-gmrcor.html
And the Margaret Cunneen saga rolls on. She doesn’t really come over as a nice type.
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/icac-inquiry-secret-recording-contradicts-cunneens-claim-she-was-joking-say-sources-20160211-gmrlpl.html
Bob Ellis on the delightful possibility of a Tony Windsor return to politics at Barnaby’s expense.
http://www.ellistabletalk.com/2016/02/12/joycewindsor/
Barnaby accused of pork barrelling.
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/public-service/barnaby-joyce-accused-of-porkbarrelling-by-public-service-unions-20160210-gmqzrm.html
Potato Head gets all precious again.
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/speaking-out-about-asylum-seekers-talk-about-confusing-20160211-gmruvi.html
Why the Catholic church barred Cathy McGowan from speaking to it.
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/cathy-mcgowans-catholic-church-oration-cancelled-over-same-sex-marriage-stance-20160211-gmreht.html
Meanwhile a group of doctors have offered their services to get George Pell here in Australia safe and sound to front the Royal Commission.
http://www.theage.com.au/national/doctors-offer-to-get-cardinal-george-pell-back-to-the-royal-commission-safe-and-sound-20160211-gmra1p.html
Sydney’s Opal system goes for the gouge on outer suburbs travellers.
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/proposed-opal-fare-increases-to-hit-longdistance-commuters-hardest-20160210-gmqolv.html
Woolworths is still in the wilderness with inept management
http://www.smh.com.au/money/investing/woolworths-is-still-in-the-wilderness-20160203-gmkp7l.html
Section 4 . . . Cartoon Corner
Cathy Wilcox on the parliamentary models.
Alan Moir doesn’t fancy Peter FitzSimons’ chances on the republic.
Ron Tandberg on Turnbull’s widening gap.
Andrew Dyson with help on the way for Turnbull and Morrison.
David Pope does it again!
Mark Knight on the troubles of Brough and Robert.
http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/9f49e60b03fcedfb0a3b468b13871d5d?width=1024&api_key=zw4msefggf9wdvqswdfuqnr5
Bill Leak welcomes a rather ruddy Barnaby Joyce.
http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/e84f8f70b43821a80bb6be8752ec2fbc
David Rowe captures our concerns as Barnaby Bull enters the China shop.
Ron Tandberg on Pell’s health.
dave – I’m hoping Scooter doesn’t go quite on us because coming up to the Budget all we’ll hear is Cormann endlessly droning “Adverse Global Financial Winds, Adverse Global Financial Winds, Adverse Global Financial Winds, Adverse Global Financial Winds”.
It passing strange that these ‘winds’ didn’t exist when Rudd was running the place.
Mark Kenny can no longer find the love. And I’d forgotten that the CSIRO was the venue for the innovation statement. How ironic.
[Take marriage equality. It is demonstrably true that right now allowing same-sex couples to marry enjoys vast public acceptance, and majority support in the Parliament – both houses. Yet, for nothing other than the internal political interests of the Liberal Party and of Turnbull’s leadership itself, that vote will not take place.
Turnbull’s new defence of a plebiscite that is not needed and which he never supported is to ask what the ALP has against democracy. As an argument uttered in the Parliament, the very fulcrum of Australia’s representative democracy, it is embarrassing.
Beyond its different rhetoric and last year’s high-profile but fiscally modest innovation statement, the Turnbull government is yet to achieve substantial policy differentiation from the Abbott period. Indeed even the transformative power of the innovation statement, with all its lofty aspirations for the knowledge economy, has been eroded after the fact by the continuation of Abbott-era policies such as refusing to commit to the final two years of Gonski education funding to the states, and the looming budget-driven job losses in the CSIRO – the very venue for the innovation statement in December.]
http://www.theage.com.au/comment/malcolm-turnbull-promised-to-advance-australia-but-has-retreated-under-fire-20160211-gmrdii.html
BK – Jess Irvine right on the money.
Being too smart by half catches up with the tories –
[ John Howard’s bastard tax turns up to ruin the Coalition party
By characterising the GST as the state’s tax, former treasurer Peter Costello, left, and prime minister John Howard created a nightmare.
It was seen at the time as a master stroke, providing a revenue base to the states which would grow over time – a model that would get rare agreement from the states for major change and block pressure for the GST rate to rise, as it would require the agreement of all state and territory leaders.
Great in theory, but throw forward to 2016 and this formulation has made the GST Australia’s bastard tax: owned by no one but claimed by everyone when the will is being read.
Having characterised the GST as the state’s tax – even defining it as a state tax in the budget papers as a way of reducing the apparent federal tax take – federal government has created a nightmare for both levels of government.
Whatever the accounting fancies, voters see the GST as a federal tax.
What the federal government has been doing for the past few months is quietly claiming the GST for its own.
Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull and Treasurer Scott Morrison are effectively telling the states they are going to have to raise their own taxes.
State premiers are left with the prospect of raising land tax – likely to be seen in voterville as a stealth tax on the family home – no matter what the sound arguments.
http://www.afr.com/opinion/john-howards-bastard-tax-turns-up-to-ruin-the-coalition-party-20160211-gmrjp8
CTar
[ It passing strange that these ‘winds’ didn’t exist when Rudd was running the place. ]
Yep. turnbull didn’t think so either.
Mesma’s approach was to ‘wait and see what happened’.
dave
[Mesma’s approach was to ‘wait and see what happened’.]
Malcolm seems to be in to that now as well.
[ State premiers are left with the prospect of raising land tax – likely to be seen in voterville as a stealth tax on the family home – no matter what the sound arguments. ]
Go down like a lead balloon for those who already paid hefty stamp duties when buying their houses – particularly if in recent years.
The elephant in the room ion Tax is Base Erosion and Profit Shifting (BEPS) as its been referred to.
Some like to have a go at Swanny – but he had it right years ago when he said to the various business groups demanding tax cuts – “What concessions are you prepared to give up to get a tax cut”.
He was also right when he said the only reform which business was collectively interested in was business paying less tax while everyone else pays more.
We aren’t going to get anywhere with ever increasing erosion of the tax base.
Of course, the plan was to starve the states of funds and have THEM approach the Feds cap in hand to request a rise in the GST.
When they didn’t do this, the Coalition abandoned the requirement that all the states had to support a GST, tore up the idea (always a nonsense) it was a state tax and started playing with how they themselves would spend any extra revenue it generated.
All of which was stupid politics. You can’t starve the states of revenue to try and get them to agree to raise a tax and then, when they refuse, leave them starved of revenue and not expect a huge backlash.
A friend of mine once observed that the feds can annoy you but the states can really hurt you. In the present scenario, the states can not only really hurt you but they can blame it all on the feds.
If we’re talking self interest driving votes, there are very few issues which impact on all voters as much as health does.
That captures it all – great effort that man!
[ David Rowe captures our concerns as Barnaby Bull enters the China shop.]
Big story in the AFR that Treasury thinks that doing nothing about bracket creep will cut economic growth by 0.35 by 2021 (I assume that is a one-off – correct me if I’m wrong). And, on that basis, the government are going to claim they should offer tax cuts rather than repair the budget.
Under a land tax system a landowner could be given credit for the stamp duties already paid. They would begin the land tax regime with a negative land tax liability in the amount they have already paid in stamp duties. It would take some years for them to actually have to start paying the land tax.
Barnaby says Turnbull “started with a good education but little else”.
Didn’t he inherit a million from his father?
[Humans may not be the only ones to blame for wildfires. Researchers have preliminary evidence pointing to Australian birds spreading fires in order to force out their prey from protected grassy areas.]
[The brown falcon and black kite are believed to pick up smoldering pieces of brush and branches, and transport them to new locations. These birds regularly hunt at the edges of fires, but such blazes are not always positioned over food sources. By moving the fires to areas with a heavy concentration of prey, the birds create an easy opportunity to hunt frogs, lizards and snakes.]
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/innovations/wp/2016/02/10/crafty-australian-birds-may-be-resorting-to-arson-to-smoke-out-their-prey/?postshare=1681455192383527&tid=ss_fb-bottom
Interesting take on Oil –
[ Oil’s flashing red on the screen again today, down 3.5%. With all of the talking heads making predictions on where crude will head next, let’s touch base on our “lower for longer” thesis.
So, I’ve read countless articles about how “over time” the global supply of oil will drop and demand will slowly continue to rise and then prices will recover to $50-60 or even $75-range.
$75 oil? That’s great! Too bad it’s not going to happen any time soon.
And while I don’t think we’re going to stay at $25-30 oil for long – a recovery to $75 is out of the question.
The reason has to do with the futures market.
Remember, oil is a fungible commodity that trades massive volume every day. It also trades in the futures market. So oil producers can actually sell oil in September…TODAY!
That’s a great option for them – and it also will inherently put a ceiling on future oil prices.
You see, once the price of oil starts to creep higher, the well-run companies will start selling their oil in the futures market at any point they can make a buck. Maybe as low as $35, $40 or $50?
Do you see my point? Whenever oil prices creep up to that level, we’ll start to see a massive wave of future oil selling, from U.S. producers — effectively creating a ceiling on prices.
What we’re seeing is a race to the bottom in prices. If large well-run players can make money at $40 they’re not going to wait for $50 futures contract anymore, they’re going to sell at $40. Which begs the question from the auctioneer: Do I hear $35?
in the Middle East (and Russia), we’ve got a different race shaping up.
Low-cost global producers, namely Saudi Arabia, are still producing oil full tilt.
Iraq is growing production. And with the sanctions lifted, Iran is also joining in. So, while the U.S. producers are in a dogfight to see who can produce oil the cheapest, on a global scale we’re seeing who can produce the MOST!]
http://dailyreckoning.com/world-war-crude/
lizzie – Birds are amazing. I’ve seen a Wedgie drop a brown snake on a road and then retrieve it as soon as it stopped moving.
[Under a land tax system a landowner could be given credit for the stamp duties already paid. They would begin the land tax regime with a negative land tax liability in the amount they have already paid in stamp duties. It would take some years for them to actually have to start paying the land tax.]
I trust the stamp duty I paid in 1996 will be indexed to inflation before any Land Tax is deducted.
Morning all
July 2 DD election?
http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/malcolm-turnbull-may-seek-a-double-dissolution-to-call-election-for-july-2/news-story/2a09bc8223e41db5510c8d5d021872b9
WWP
[Under a land tax system a landowner could be given credit for the stamp duties already paid. ]
And the credit inherited?
Malcolm ain’t waiting around. Throw out some tax cuts and then throw himself on the electorate screaming that Labor is tax and spend.
[WWP
Under a land tax system a landowner could be given credit for the stamp duties already paid.
And the credit inherited?
]
Excellent point.
I was thinking also that because we are an outlying suburb without nearby access to many services I would assume we’d have a lower rate of landtax than those who are serviced by train lines and public pools etc …
Personally I think you’d be crazy to allow any grandfathering even to settle a political problem of people whinging about stamp duty paid recently.
They chose to pay stamp duty, buying property and paying stamp duty is a voluntary exercise and they chose it, why the hell would you give them a credit. The credit is they don’t pay stamp duty, or pay a reduced level of stamp duty when next they buy.
And surely there are no categories or exceptions or administration, you take the unimproved value of a piece of land and apply the rate and bingo: every one in the whole state is equal.
There is an interesting article on R&D tax offsets in the Fin today. Apparently the R&D tax break costs have increase substantially and there is suggestion its being rorted as well as questions on its efficiency due to lack of collaboration with universities.
http://www.afr.com/news/policy/tax/rd-tax-break-costs-significantly-more-than-forecast-20160211-gmr8sl
The Fin (Jo Mather) has in the past chased down this rabbit hole.
http://www.afr.com/news/policy/tax/no-raid-on-3b-rd-tax-offset-to-fund-innovation-plan-says-government-20151207-glhy35
The unimproved values should also be easily accessible public information.
[Apparently the R&D tax break costs have increase substantially and there is suggestion its being rorted as ]
My first job for a big 6 or 8 or 4 as it is now accounting firms was with the R&D tax concession, it has always been a rort and even though I haven’t touched that space for more than a decade I am pretty sure nothing has changed except there was a cap imposed (excluding some companies with high revenue I think)
A DD still seems an extremely unlikely prospect on a number of count:
1) How will the Government continue to function after 1 July 2016 without the passage of appropriation bills. While a lot is done by way of standing appropriations, what about the rest? The last day that both houses could be simultaneously dissolved would be 12 May, the Thursday of Budget week. This is the day, traditionally, that the Opposition Leader delivers the budget response. This response is by way of a speech in the second reading debate on the appropriation bills. Even if they somehow managed to pass the appropriation bills that same day, why would the Senate agree to change its normal sitting routine just to pass bills in order to facilitate their own dissolution?
2) If the electoral system for the Senate is changed prior to the calling of such election, the AEC will need an amount of time to implement the administrative changes required to conduct the election. How big a task this would be would depend on the quantum of the changes. I’ve seen some suggestion that the preferred model of the Greens and Xenophon would cause some difficulties administratively.
3) Combination of 1 and 2 – the new Parliament could not meet to pass appropriations until votes were counted, seats were declared etc
Wyatt Roy is assistant innovation minister. He may also be the person Mark Kenny is referring to in his article
NZ at 3-44. They may already have enough runs considering the deck is greener than the outfield.
[How will the Government continue to function after 1 July 2016 without the passage of appropriation bills]
Government announces election says the last day of Parliament is tomorrow, Labor can pass the appropriation bill or bring the country to a stand still … you chose.
The senate reform I think you skip this round, I still the senate reform despite the god of Australian elections advocating it, I still don’t like.
I don’t see why you solve a physical constraints problem by changing the system of voting, we are smarter than that.
4 wickets in 9 overs.
At that rate the game could be over today.
[Even if they somehow managed to pass the appropriation bills that same day, why would the Senate agree to change its normal sitting routine just to pass bills in order to facilitate their own dissolution?]
Yep, yep, yep. Labor would never vote down supply, but there’s no way in hell they would support a late night Thursday sitting to pass supply just so Malcolm can get to the GG before midnight. (unless of course they felt they would win, so Turnbull wouldn’t be going).
The Greens are hardly likely to want to play that game either (although they might feel an advantage if Labor is struggling in the polls – so maybe a tiny glimmer of hope there for Mal).
The x-bench would be voting against even supply if the Senate voting rule changes are passed.
99.9% certain we’re talking election August or later.
Mark Kenny is a lurker here isn’t he. Say hi Mark!
[Wyatt Roy is assistant innovation minister. He may also be the person Mark Kenny is referring to in his article]
Only Parli sec level. Kenny says it’s a Cabinet minister.
Pyne is my bet.
WWP
[The credit is they don’t pay stamp duty, or pay a reduced level of stamp duty when next they buy. ]
Makes sense, Tks.
(I hesitated to post on this because it’s something I know ‘nil’ about)
ratsak
Yep. That was my initial suggestion, and first one to come to mind.
[I hesitated to post on this because it’s something I know ‘nil’ about]
If that stopped posters, PB would be crickets.
[Government announces election says the last day of Parliament is tomorrow, Labor can pass the appropriation bill or bring the country to a stand still … you chose.]
Nup. The parliament has to be dissolved on the 11th (re Green) so that is actually the day before the Reply speech. Not going to happen unless they bring the budget forward.
[ Makes sense, Tks. ]
Politically its a return to opposition for those who do it.
Then there is the issue of a Federal Government walking, no running away from funding education, health etc etc.
All the while the tax base keeps being eroded and ‘some’ pay less tax then a pensioner does weekly at the supermarket.
Turnbull could try Hawke’s thing of announcing the election for say July 2 a week or two before May 11 and then try and pass interim supply.
Two major problems with that.
Firstly, the political impact of ‘running scared from the Budget’ would be pretty potent for Labor. Especially in that it allows the ‘they really want to raise the GST’ campaign to get some traction.
Also Labor and the Greens could say nup, the GG hasn’t dissolved parliament, so go back and advise him that we’ll have the election later Malcolm. There would be massive incentive for them to do so if the polls are against them. We’ve all seen that Malcolm runs when it gets too hot. Turnbull could go through with it and try to blame the opposition for shutting down the government, but seriously? That is massively high risk, and Turnbull is spineless.
ratsak
If Mark kenny starts reporting on my brainfart yesterday evening, we will know for sure he reads this blog. 😀
[victoria
Posted Thursday, February 11, 2016 at 6:49 pm | PERMALINK
Just had a crazy thought. Been reflecting on the Herald Sun story today re Stuart Robert hosting dinner back in 2013 with the generous liberal donor. At the dinner was also former Lib Head from Qld Bruce McIver (who is now on the board of Aus Post). I stand to be corrected, but i reall his name coming up during the Slipper saga. Stuart Robert is an mp from Qld. Could the money to fund Ashby against Slipper in this direction???]
His thoughts on Stuart Robert
[David Speers
David Speers – Verified account @David_Speers
Amazing he’s made it to the end of the week. My thoughts: http://m.switzer.com.au/the-experts/david-speers/a-different-standard/ …]
[Rowan
Rowan – @FightingTories
Commodities won’t save Australia from recession: ASX boss http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-02-12/commodities-won27t-save-australia-from-recession/7162350 … via @ABCNews]
[
44.I hesitated to post on this because it’s something I know ‘nil’ about
If that stopped posters, PB would be crickets.
]
I was going to make the same point one poster in particular in this position is not only prepared to comment but to take a fringe position they don’t even really understand ad declare anyone who has any other position stupid.