BludgerTrack: 53.1-46.9 to Coalition

A dip in support for the Coalition recorded by Morgan makes its presence felt in the latest weekly poll aggregate reading, although the Coalition is still projected as on track to retain its thumping majority from 2013.

A fairly pronounced narrowing in the Coalition’s lead may now be observed on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate charts, thanks mostly to an unusually soft result for the Turnbull government in this week’s Morgan result. This shows up as a 0.6% move to Labor on two-party preferred since last week, but it’s only made a slight difference on the seat projection, which credits the Coalition with a net gain of one seat since the 2013 election despite a 0.4% lower two-party vote. The aggregate also records a lift in support for the Greens, who had had some of the wind taken out of their sails when Malcolm Turnbull became Prime Minister. The addition of new figures from Essential Research to the leadership ratings results in essentially no change to an overall picture of Turnbull enjoying massive but nonetheless slightly reduced leads over Bill Shorten on both net approval and preferred prime minister.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,097 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.1-46.9 to Coalition”

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  7. “BludgerTrack: 53.1-46.9 to Coalition”

    A ‘no surprises’ result.

    The Coalition having a rumbling series of events that don’t reflect well on them – fallout from the leadership change combined with some ineptness – but no ‘killer’ events for now. Settling the necessary ministry changes including a renegotiation with the Nationals will probably provide only a little excitement.

    Both Labor and the Greens will be somewhat encouraged.

    Shortens calm and down to earth approach is asserting itself and that is a definite asset.

    That a GST increase without details of a proposed compensation package is not popular is also ‘no surprise’ to anyone although Morrison is appearing to be even more surly than usual!

    I surprised that little attention has been paid by the Press to the absence of many Coalition backbenchers from Turnbull’s speech on Indigenous Reconciliation yesterday.

    Turnbull is facing a real test over the next two months with a reshuffle and the lead up to the budget.

  12. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Mark Kenny writes on how the ministerial exodus is unbalancing Turnbull’s ministerial team.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/ministerial-exodus-unbalances-malcolm-turnbulls-team-20160210-gmqoqj.html
    As does Michelle Grattan.
    https://theconversation.com/nationals-need-to-avoid-the-truss-timetable-creating-leadership-vacuum-54498
    Peter Martin says that the states will now embark on a taxation raising course.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/state-governments-are-about-to-hike-up-taxes-20160209-gmpd67.html
    Now what can we privatise next?
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/thousands-of-students-caught-up-in-major-college-collapse-20160210-gmqt8x.html
    This taxation proposition will go down well with Liberal benefactors.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/call-for-death-tax-on-super-rich-families-20160208-gmp3du.html
    We’ll believe it when we see it.
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/feb/10/tax-chief-promises-legal-action-to-crack-down-on-multinational-tax-avoidance
    Michael Gordon says that Turnbull’s “Closing the Gap” speech had some big gaps of its own.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/call-for-death-tax-on-super-rich-families-20160208-gmp3du.html
    Lenore Taylor writes more on ministerial and fundraising standards.
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/feb/11/nothing-will-change-after-the-stuart-robert-furore-dies-down-it-never-does
    “View from the Street” on Greg Hunt, the “bestest minister in the world”. Stuart Robert gets a bit of attention too.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/view-from-the-street/view-from-the-street-greg-hunt-is-the-bestest-minister-in-the-whole-wide-world-20160210-gmqlys.html
    And Scott Ludlam rips Hunt over the award.
    https://newmatilda.com/2016/02/10/watch-scott-ludlam-rips-greg-hunt-for-award-it-sounds-like-his-mum-made-up/

  13. Section 2 . . .

    An open letter from The Independent Australia to Stuart Robert. It’s quite to the point!
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/open-letter-to-stuart-robert–from-his-employer,8665
    Hello hello! ICAC fights back over the Margaret Cunneen saga.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/icac-strikes-back-with-phone-taps-in-battle-with-margaret-cunneen-20160210-gmqlbe.html
    Could Bernie Sanders’ economic policies catapult the US economy?
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/the-new-new-deal-sanders-economic-plan-would-catapult-us-economy,8663
    Are interest groups girding their loins against Baird’s pronouncements on the lockout laws?
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/mike-baird-using-misleading-stats-to-back-sydneys-lockout-laws-weatherburn-20160210-gmq7bl.html
    That’s one heck of an ice bust!
    http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/perth-drug-busts-wa-police-seize-80-million-worth-of-ice-after-hotel-raids-20160210-gmqrj5.html
    The Catholic church is now telling new priests that it is “not necessarily” their duty to report suspicions of clerical child abuse to police. Charming!
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/feb/10/catholic-bishops-not-obliged-report-clerical-child-abuse-vatican-says
    Kim Carr reckons the CSIRO cuts are all about Abbott.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/csiro-cuts-reflect-political-not-budget-priorities-labors-kim-carr-says-20160210-gmqd0i.html
    Some fun and games in the process to select the submarine supplier.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/liberal-pollsters-to-help-in-german-submarine-bid-20160210-gmqod1.html
    Richard Ackland on the ABC’s reporting on the NBN. Fair and balanced – like Fox News!
    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/feb/10/fair-accurate-and-balanced-the-abc-of-the-nbn-reporting-saga
    Elizabeth Farrelly goes right off over Ruddock’s appointment. She follows through with a crack at Pell too.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/ruddock-and-pell-promoted-to-their-level-of-malefeasance-20160210-gmq8n3.html

  14. Section 3 . . .

    Headline puns aplenty as the ACCC’s case against the alleged egg producing cartel goes under.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/consumer-affairs/judge-scrambles-acccs-egg-cartel-case-20160210-gmqira.html
    I can’t wait until the demise of cheques.
    http://www.smh.com.au/money/demise-of-cheques-new-electronic-payment-platform-to-make-funds-transfer-faster-easier-20160201-gmikeh.html
    A land tax would reduce NSW inequality says Tim Ayres. My view is that if land tax were to replace stamp duty it would have to be phased in to avoid crippling double dipping on those who have recently purchased a house.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/a-land-tax-would-reduce-nsw-inequality-20160210-gmq8fi.html
    A frightening nutritional analysis of the Carl Jr signature hamburger.
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2016/02/11/carl-jr-calorie-burger_n_9198860.html?utm_hp_ref=australia
    This could prove to be interesting.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/sport/2016/02/10/red-cards-trialled-cricket/

  15. Section 4 . . . Cartoon Corner

    Alan Moir with accolades for the departing Philip Ruddock.

    John Spooner and the gap.

    Ron Tandberg and Pell.

    David Pope, with thanks to Basil Brush, hands another award out to Greg Hunt.

    Mark Knight is inferring that Americans need to be brain dead to vote for Trump. He might have a point.
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/356566b8b72a617e9ea790258abc5bf7?width=1024&api_key=zw4msefggf9wdvqswdfuqnr5
    David Rowe really knows how to turn the knife! He gives Trump a good run here.

  16. We’re getting Barnaby Joyce as Deputy Prime Minister because he is a ‘Rock Star of politics’!?! Like Madonna!?! Because he is known far and wide by his one name!?! According to Michelle Landry that’s a good enough reason!?!

    Apparently, similar to when the circus comes to town(this bit I have included because he reminds me of a clown), Barnaby gets this ‘Rock Star’ reception whenever he visits her neck of the woods. He also says ‘Dams’ a lot, which tickles the fancy of the Queensland environment destroying farmers too (although I don’t know where *Barnaby* (now with added razzle because he is a ‘Rock Star” 😉 is going to get all the money he needs for his dams if the government can’t afford $ for Health and Education).

    I mean I know the Nationals are going down the Reality TV road in a big way (A Nationals Candidate Wants A Profile) but to cheapen the office of Deputy Prime Minister to such an extent, because I can’t think of any actual policy achievements of one, Barnaby Joyce, is to traduce our democracy for fun and profit.

    Though, in this Reality TV infected society we live in, it is probably the Nationals only sure way to relevance anymore.

  17. BK

    [Some fun and games in the process to select the submarine supplier.]

    TKMS on a flogging to nothing I’d say.

    The Japanese have 8 Sōryū-class submarines in the water that have both Combat and Weapons systems provided by US vendors (very much the preference of the US and their reluctance to assist in integration of ‘foreign’ combat systems previously demonstrated).

    So the Sōryū a ‘special’.

  18. http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/csiro-cuts-reflect-political-not-budget-priorities-labors-kim-carr-says-20160210-gmqd0i.html

    [Senator Carr, who joined Greens senator Janet Rice in grilling Dr Finkel, said the $28 million to be spent by the Turnbull government on advertising its innovation policies – unveiled at the CSIRO in December – would have spared many of the scientists facing redundancy.]

    When will the Coal make a logical decision that doesn’t result in tears.

  19. Also, I don’t know who Turnbull’s chief spinner is but they sure are earning their pay packet. For this morning comes the line out of an ABC journo’s mouth that Malcolm’s loss of so many Ministers is not really a crisis, but an opportunity!

    Jesus wept a river of tears!

    Apparently the Coalition is so replete with talent that Malcolm can promote his talented junior woodchucks and more women. See? All this chaos and dysfunction is actually a positive!

    Honestly, Labor need to try this chutzpah business, it seems to work a treat with the media.

    No more stolid and dependable behaviour, or thoughtful policy-making, just ‘flick the switch to Vaudeville’ and away you go! Insta political popularity! You’ve just got to get your lines right in your pamphlets promoting your show and the punters will flock to you.

    Too easy!

    The actual governing bit, it seems, not so much.

  20. Chrissie “Pontius Pilot” Pyne.

    [Senator Carr said the cuts were part of a $115 million assault on the CSIRO that had also shut key manufacturing programs. Victoria would be particularly hard hit in the latest round as many of the climate jobs earmarked for elimination are at Aspendale, in Melbourne’s south-east, he said.

    A spokesman for Industry Minister Christopher Pyne distanced the government from the CSIRO’s actions.

    “The CSIRO is an independent statutory agency governed by a board of directors,” the spokesman said. “The board, in conjunction with senior management, are responsible for setting the CSIRO’s priorities.”]

  21. Good Morning

    Cat momma.

    The Nationals have been damaged by their promotion of the CSG and coal mining industries.

    When you have the likes of Alan Jones campaigning against you as a conservative you are in big trouble.

    Jones may have stopped his campaign with the death of CSG but farmers memories are long and lock the gate will factor in National electorates.

    The Nationals have to prove with policy action that they are in it for the bush. Joyce with his support of coal mining in his electorate is the opposite of that.

    This is why Truss took so long and is staying on till March. This is why there are reports of a challenger to the Nats leadership.

    The Nationals are a party on the ropes and their lack of helping out on the NBN, CSG and coal mining have highlighted to the bush how city centric the Nats have become by kowtowing to the Liberals so much and failed them big time.

    There are very good reasons why Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott got elected and some good candidates by the Greens or NXT could very well take out some Nationals seats with dire consequences for the LNP chances of winning elections.

    There has been no real polling on this and just like we saw with the Greens winning a State seat we will not know of any real movement if any by pollsters before an election campaign starts.

  24. I have a bit of trouble seeing how the libs would be on 53.1 right now. Bludger-tracker is, as I understand it, a lagging indicator. The two most venerable polls (Newspoll and Essential) are 53 and 51. Morgan’s dropped to 52.5 and you can pretty much discount the rest

  25. What do we know about Barnaby policies? He likes dams.

    He was correct about the Depp dogs, but he made a pig’s breakfast of explaining just why they had to be sent home.

    I don’t understand why he’s supposed to be such a good ‘retail politician’.

  27. Election in 2010 was due in early September and actually took place late August. Where is this early election you speak of?

    Election 2007 was held in late November. Election 2010 was held three months earlier than it needed to be to conform to the public expectation of what a three-year term is (the public thinks of it as no more than three years between election dates, rather than the constitutional definition of three years since the parliament began sitting). Election 2010 was definitely an early election. It was a too-clever-by-half move to capture the honeymoon unicorn when the most confident and sensible move would have been to spend all of the remaining term establishing a record of competent leadership.

  28. gt

    [… good candidates by the Greens or NXT could very well take out some Nationals seats with dire consequences for the LNP chances of winning elections.]

    The only ‘dire threat’ is to the Nationals themselves being wiped out by the Liberals and that is unlikely to have much consequence for their chances of winning elections.

  29. Bit more from that shanahan article – he lets the tories off lightly. Now if it had been Labor –

    [….But they feed the impression of ministerial instability in the government, which has now lost 11 ministers, including a prime minister, a deputy prime minister and a treasurer, in six months.

    …(the) challenge is fighting off the perception — and Labor ­attacks — that he can’t deliver on the political and policy promises he made when he replaced Tony Abbott.

    Turnbull has now lost four ministers in five months, with a fifth looking terminal. There’s bitter factional warfare in the NSW Liberals. There are internal Liberal Party administrative tensions.

    There has been a loss of ­momentum on economic reform.

    There are deep divisions ­between the Coalition partners and the Nationals are the most divided they have been for years.

    ….Yet the flatness on the government benches in the return to parliament in an election year and a sense of simmering divisions belie the opinion polls. Events Turnbull can’t control, and those he can, suggest he is at risk of falling victim to the Opposition Leader’s taunts that the government is chaotic and dysfunctional and failing in economic leadership.

    …Turnbull…walked away from the option of raising the GST even before releasing the figures he said failed to convince him the cost was worth the effort, and has left a vacuum on economic and tax reform. ]

    http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2016/2/11/politics/sense-turmoil-plagues-turnbull-government

  30. No, stop. Don’t automatically renew them.

    [A bureaucratic error has rendered eight years’ worth of approvals for oil and gas operations in sensitive marine areas invalid, Resources Minister Josh Frydenberg has revealed, forcing the government and Labor to rush through laws to make the projects legal.

    Conservationists say it means the projects did not have the correct environmental approvals, raising questions over whether the effect of mining operations on ocean areas of high conservation value were properly considered.]

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/bungle-leaves-42-mining-approvals-in-sensitive-oceans-unlawful-josh-frydenberg-says-20160210-gmqu73.html

  33. My view is that if land tax were to replace stamp duty it would have to be phased in to avoid crippling double dipping on those who have recently purchased a house.

    Stamp duty already paid could be deducted from future land tax liabilities.

  38. guytaur @ 21,

    ‘ This is why Truss took so long and is staying on till March. This is why there are reports of a challenger to the Nats leadership.’

    On the radio this morning it was stated that there will be no challenger to *Barnaby* but 5 challengers for the Deputy Leader of the Nationals.

    As far as The Nationals being on the ropes, I’m not so sure. Not wanting to be disrespectful to country folk but I do know that voting National is something that is ingrained in their local communities and if you don’t then you are ostracised. Like a rut in the road or paddock they can’t drive the tractor out of, they will curse at the situation, call someone to help them out but come back again the next time and go over the same road.

  39. [Human Services Minister Stuart Robert told the Herald Sun he was acting in a “private capacity” when he attended a signing ceremony with Nimrod Resources’s Paul Marks and high-ranking Communist Party ­officials who run Chinese Government-owned company Minmetals.

    Mr Robert has previously said Mr Marks was a “close personal friend” and he’d bought shares in two of the Melbourne millionaire’s companies.

    Mr Marks has also donated $2 million to the Liberals in the past two ­financial years. Last year, then prime minister Tony Abbott flew on a taxpayer-funded jet to Mr Marks’s birthday party at Huntingdale Golf Club.

    Minmetals’s website says that at the August 18, 2014, event in Beijing, Mr Robert, then assistant defence minister, spoke “on behalf of the Australian Department of Defence”.

    It says he presented to a senior Communist Party official “a medal” bestowed by the prime minister.]

  40. cat momma

    Shunning people for voting Nationals only works where there is no secret ballot or people admit to voting other than National.

    The point about the damage to the Nationals by the CSG and coal mining support is that it has undermined that community shunning. People in those areas affected may not agree but can understand people voting for a party other than the Nationals.

    All that community support for the Nationals is predicated on the Nationals doing the best for the community. CSG and coal mining has shown country folk that this is not necessarily the case.

    The Nationals have to change or they are a dead parrot of a party. Its just how long will it take for new parties to make inroads to their vote that is in question.

    The state result in NSW where the Greens won a seat from the Nationals proves that things are starting to break down for the Nationals.

  41. I once had a local farmer friend say to me, “I’m a farmer, I vote National.” He paused, and said, “I’m a farmer, I’m stupid.”

    His words, I hasten to say, not mine!

  43. lizzie
    [I don’t understand why he’s supposed to be such a good ‘retail politician’.]
    His ability to speak fluent “Bjelke” gibberish, a real vote winner amongst Nat supporters.

  45. @ 24/kevin17 – Bludggertrack doesn’t only use the most recent result from each pollster – instead, results get weighted lower and lower as they get older, and are then removed eventually.

    So that 57% Morgan result is still impacting the results. In a few weeks, it will wash out of the system completely and there will be a drop in Coalition support in BludgerTrack that can’t be explained by looking at the polls published that week.

  46. I wasn’t aware that Ruddock also “locked dicrimination into marriage laws”.

    [However much Ruddock’s appointment may do to boost Turnbull’s stakes with Liberal party border security hard-liners, the PM’s snub to the international community can only damage his own reputation for sound judgement and leadership. It is Turnbull’s Duke of Edinburgh moment, a gaffe of unparalleled ineptitude and miscalculation.]

    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/ruddocks-retirement-gig-a-captains-call,8668#.Vruu299Iq1w.twitter

  48. So seven Nationals think they are ready for leadership?
    That suggests to me that they’re a bit of a rabble, because Truzz has been in charge for so long.

  50. POROTI – If you were a fan of Blazing Saddles you’d know that Barmy speaks “Authentic Frontier Gibberish”

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ke5Mr5eCF2U

    “You get back here, you pious candy-ass sidewinder! Ain’t no way and nobody gonna leave this town. Hell, I was born here and I was raised here and dadgummit, I’m gonna die here. Ain’t no sidewinding, bush-whacking, hornswaggling cracker-croaker is going to ruin my biscuit cutter!”

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