Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition; Morgan: 52.5-47.5

Morgan finds serious slippage in support for the Coalition for the first time since Malcolm Turnbull became leader, bringing it more closely into line with Essential Research, which continues to find the Coalition with a narrow lead.

It looks like the only two new federal polls this week are the regular Essential Research and Roy Morgan series, and a solid drop for the Coalition from Roy Morgan brings the two much closer together than they have been since Malcolm Turnbull assumed the prime ministership. Essential is its usual stable self, with the Coalition’s modest two-party lead of 51-49 unchanged on last week. The primary votes are 43% for the Coalition (down one), 35% for Labor (steady) and 11% for the Greens (steady). The voting intention results were derived from online polling conducted over the two previous weeks, from an overall sample of about 2000. From this week’s sample of 1000 only, the poll also offers us Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which find Malcolm Turnbull steady on 51% approval and up two on disapproval to 27%, while Bill Shorten is steady on 27% approval and up one on disapproval to 48%. Turnbull’s lead on preferred prime minister has increased from 51-18 to 52-15. Respondents were also asked to register two reasons why the government might wish to reform the tax system, for which the most popular response by some margin was “to address the budget deficit”, which was rated first or second by 58%. Favoured possibilities for revenue raising followed the usual pattern in coming in highest for proposals targeting multinational corporations and high income earners, with a GST increase rating last out of seven listed options. When forced to choose between higher income tax or a higher GST, 37% came down for don’t know.

Morgan’s two-party measures record their first significant movement of the Turnbull era, with the Coalition’s respondent-allocated two-party lead down from 55-45 to 52.5-47.5, and previous election preferences down from 54-46 to 52.5-47.5. Clearly rounding and changed preference flows had a fair bit to do with this, because the primary votes are little changed, with the Coalition steady on 43.5%, Labor up a point to 29%, and the Greens up a point to 16%. The poll was conducted by face-to-face and SMS over the two previous weekends, from a sample of 3072.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

786 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition; Morgan: 52.5-47.5”

  1. victoria @ 746,

    ‘ Ellen Whinett who has been reporting on this story said to PVO that he could not be.more wrong suspecting it was Abbott backers…’

    Hence, Morrison, with the imprimatur of Turnbull and Bishop,J.

  2. Rossmore @ 745,

    ‘ . Every guy in that photo will know who took the photo….but why would Peta leak a photo that paints Abbott in a bad light?’

    I just said she probably took the photo. I didn’t say she leaked it. What I do know is that everyone who was there on the night probably got a copy. Hence Morrison is my main suspect.

  3. TPOF firstly I am a Labor supporter through and through. Secondly your avoiding the issue with remarks ‘anti-Gillard’ and ‘hissy fit’.

    You suggested Gillard called the election for legitimacy. And I’m correcting you that she didn’t and her judgement for calling an early election was to cash in on a honeymoon period because her advisers thought her polling would drop if she waited till the 3 year term had expired.

    Please don’t try and insult me just because you don’t agree with the point I made. My point is you were rewriteing history, to support your favored politician. And your recollection of why Gillard called the election, was not a realty of what really happened.

  4. Last word,

    ‘ If Morrison is main culprit, he had better watch out. Abbott will be seeking his revenge.’

    That would be a battle to the death worth getting out the popcorn for! 😀

  5. David@759

    TPOF firstly I am a Labor supporter through and through. Secondly your avoiding the issue with remarks ‘anti-Gillard’ and ‘hissy fit’.

    You suggested Gillard called the election for legitimacy. And I’m correcting you that she didn’t and her judgement for calling an early election was to cash in on a honeymoon period because her advisers thought her polling would drop if she waited till the 3 year term had expired.

    Please don’t try and insult me just because you don’t agree with the point I made. My point is you were rewriteing history, to support your favored politician. And your recollection of why Gillard called the election, was not a realty of what really happened.

    Too late! History has already been re-written here.

    Get with the program. 😉

  6. Oops before I call it a night. Forgot to mention that Victorian state elections are fixed for every four years and took place in November 2010. Therefore federal election had to take place before then

  7. Victoria

    Yes I assume Gillard would have wanted to avoid the Victorian election, which may have been one reson she went so early.

    In hindsight she would have been better to wait until February 2011, but it is easy to be wise after the event.

  8. The American political commentators who were calling Senator Rubio robotic a few days ago should have seen our Minister Robert (or is it “Robot”) in Question Time today.

    One point that hasn’t attracted much comment is that Dr Parkinson really doesn’t have to feel too constrained by politics in his reporting on Mr Robot. When Mrs Bishop was being referred off to the Department of Finance in July/August last year, everyone seemed to be saying that it would be a whitewash. But Mr Turnbull probably needs Dr Parkinson more than Dr Parkinson needs Mr Turnbull.

  9. Science: you think there may be a black cat in a dark room. You enter the room with a torch to search for it.

    Religion: your holy book / guru tells you that there is a black cat in the room. You must have faith, you don’t need to enter the room. In fact it would show a deplorable lack of faith and/or be sacrilegious to do so.

    Politics: there is or there isn’t a black cat in the dark room, whatever best suits your agenda. The actual location of the cat in the room and indeed the existence of the cat or the room is immaterial. If you are a Liberal, Rupert will support your version.

  10. What an utter failure of public policy, this whole privatisation of TAFE has been…http://www.theage.com.au/business/thousands-of-students-caught-up-in-major-college-collapse-20160210-gmqt8x.html

    The Brumby VIC ALP should hang its head in shame for starting this process. I am still an ALP voter but this was a shocking political decision, no doubt based on seductive promises from the bureaucracy.

    It highlights too one of the hidden costs of privatisation…. The huge costs of regulation by Government to ensure standards are maintained in the private sector.

    Prior to privatisation public TAFE was largely and effectively self-regulated with recourse to the central bureaucracy, the Ombudsman, the AAT and MPs providing oversight.

    Once privatised, Government finds it has to hire an army of regulators to monitor standards in the private TAFES but this cost is never factored into the privatisation business cases….

  11. Victoria: election 2010 was not ‘due’ until the 3rd anniversary of the 2007 election (November 24). Julia Gillard went in about 3 months early. A date between about the second Saturday in Octoner (after the NRL and AFL Grand Finals) and the second Saturday in December would have been considered to be ‘when due’.

  12. What in the living f**k was going through Kenny’s head when he wrote this ‘gem’:

    [Suddenly, the smooth and toboganable brow of the Turnbull government has been furrowed by ministerial crises and resignations.]

    It sounds as though Kenny’s has contracted Hartcher’s disease – a seriously unhealthy case of hero-worship. To be fair, Kenny’s tries to offer frank advice to his good mate Mal (and I note that the words “crisis” and “besieged” are nowhere to be found), but then he offers this little nugget:

    Jamie Briggs was forced to resign after a relatively minor indiscretion.

    Good to know that Kenny thinks sexual harassment is a minor indiscretion, especially given that Briggs in all probability was the one to leak the staffer’s identity so that she could be smeared by News Ltd.

    God, these Canberra Press Gallery types are a noxious breed of people.

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/ministerial-exodus-unbalances-malcolm-turnbulls-team-20160210-gmqoqj.html

  13. David @ 759

    First, I don’t care what you vote. Secondly, the whole point of my response was to point out the absurdity of your idiotic bullshit about being the most one-eyed yada yada yada. And then you have the cheek to bleat:

    [Please don’t try and insult me just because you don’t agree with the point I made.]

    Jesus wept!

    But just for you and Bemused and DTT as I toddle off to sleep, let me put it on the record that Kevin Rudd was a dishonourable, treacherous wrecking bastard who would rather see Labor lose power than see Julia Gillard as Prime Minister. He also taught Tony Abbott everything he knows about wrecking the party that gave him everything because it then took some of that away when he showed he didn’t have what it takes.

    No further correspondence will be entered into. That’s it. Go nuts about Julia Gillard, the devil’s spawn, and St Kevin, the martyr on the cross. Cheers.

  14. Bemused 775. Many of the bureaucrats who pushed TAFE privatisation in VIC under Brumby are now advising the Andrews Gov. The original architect of TAFE privatisation is now a Dep Secretary in Andrews Premier and Cabinet dept. Sad to see a promising VIC ALP State Gov still seduced by Neo-liberalism….

  15. So someone, probably from within the upper echelons of the Liberal Party, has leaked a photo to journalists knowing it be damaging to her/his party for some sort of personal political advantage whatever that may be, dependent on who the particular person is.
    Have I got that right?

    And the journalists are protecting the identity of that person.

    Because….?

    Is the person’s action worthy of confidentiality?

    Or is it a simple case of the journalists making sure they will be in the pipeline for such in similar cases in the future either from this person or persons in general and so it is a simple case of self interest directly related to journalistic success and thus fame and fortune in that field and the leaker gets whatever advantage he [?] wants?

    And the public isn’t considered worthy enough to have the knowledge of who it is and what is really behind the leaking?

    It stinks.

  16. 773

    Technically every election for the House of Representative, except 1910 when the House was allowed to expire by the effluxion of time, has been an early election because the House has been dissolved.

    Defining any of the simultaneous House and half-Senate elections as practically early, other than a House only election held before a half-Senate election can be held, is rather arbitrary, unless the term of the House extended beyond the Senate term or the House was dissolved before a DD was prevented by the 6-month rule. Of the simultaneous House and half-Senate elections, only 1919, 1931, 1934, 1955, 1977, 1984, 1998 and 2010could be indisputably described as practically early as they were the cases of the aforementioned situation where the House term extended beyond the half-Senate terms or was dissolved before the 6-month rule prevented a DD. 1931 was because the Government lost the confidence of the house.

    All 6 DD were early, because they have to be.

    Of the House only elections, only 1929 (loss of confidence) and 1963 (very narrow majority), were practically early.

  17. 776 & 778

    The House of Representatives elected in 2007 did not first sit until the 12th of February 2008 and thus would have expired on the 12th of February 2011 and the election could then have been as late as the 16th of April 2011.

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