It looks like the only two new federal polls this week are the regular Essential Research and Roy Morgan series, and a solid drop for the Coalition from Roy Morgan brings the two much closer together than they have been since Malcolm Turnbull assumed the prime ministership. Essential is its usual stable self, with the Coalition’s modest two-party lead of 51-49 unchanged on last week. The primary votes are 43% for the Coalition (down one), 35% for Labor (steady) and 11% for the Greens (steady). The voting intention results were derived from online polling conducted over the two previous weeks, from an overall sample of about 2000. From this week’s sample of 1000 only, the poll also offers us Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which find Malcolm Turnbull steady on 51% approval and up two on disapproval to 27%, while Bill Shorten is steady on 27% approval and up one on disapproval to 48%. Turnbull’s lead on preferred prime minister has increased from 51-18 to 52-15. Respondents were also asked to register two reasons why the government might wish to reform the tax system, for which the most popular response by some margin was “to address the budget deficit”, which was rated first or second by 58%. Favoured possibilities for revenue raising followed the usual pattern in coming in highest for proposals targeting multinational corporations and high income earners, with a GST increase rating last out of seven listed options. When forced to choose between higher income tax or a higher GST, 37% came down for don’t know.
Morgan’s two-party measures record their first significant movement of the Turnbull era, with the Coalition’s respondent-allocated two-party lead down from 55-45 to 52.5-47.5, and previous election preferences down from 54-46 to 52.5-47.5. Clearly rounding and changed preference flows had a fair bit to do with this, because the primary votes are little changed, with the Coalition steady on 43.5%, Labor up a point to 29%, and the Greens up a point to 16%. The poll was conducted by face-to-face and SMS over the two previous weekends, from a sample of 3072.
Melissa Parke is on her way out now she has a sugar daddy boyfriend.
Her chances of leading Labor, if ever there was a scintilla of possibility beforehand, is totally non-existent now.
It is evidence of the shallow analysis of some Green supporters that Melissa Parke would even be a twinkle in the eye for serious consideration of Labor leadership.
If Julie Bishop recognises she would never become PM – mainly because she is from WA – then the the suggestion that Melissa P could be a viable leader for Labor verges on the outlandish to say the least.
Jack A Randa
Thanks to nerdy son for hint. Frankly I don’t even know if I have java script. 🙂 Tomorrow when my head is clear I will investigate.
Jack A Randa
Thanks to nerdy son for hint. Frankly I don’t even know if I have java script. 🙂 Tomorrow when my head is clear I will investigate.
Tricot
Agreed. Outlandish indeed!
Damned gerbils got over-excited at the mention of java script, obviously.
[Robert had stated he was in China in a private capacity so what was he doing firstly meeting with the Chinese government and secondly why were reps from the Mining company there.]
I’m curious Doyley as to hwo a private citizen on a tourist visa gets a meeting with senior Chinese government ministers and officials.
Is there some option on the entry card where you tick yes if you want to meet with a government minister?
Tricot
Yes, with the ALP creeping it’s way further and further to the right, someone like Melissa Parke isn’t a suitable leader.
She seemingly has concluded that the ALP isn’t what it used to be.
And Roberts would have to be the first lib to ever conduct government business whilst on a private trip.
it is generally other way around claiming TA whilst inspecting a new property, going on a bike ride, attending a mates wedding etc
FalconWA@77
The rest of your comment superfluous.
Rex
[ It likely means the ALP would hold a commanding lead if they had a respected leader. ]
Rubbish. I’m sure it has been pointed out to you many times, but the 2PP vote has very little to do with the leader’s personal popularity. Look at Mal the Magnificent – sky high popularity, but he can barely lift his party’s 2PP to 51-49.
Labor is in with a good chance at the next election, and neither Mal’s nor Shorten’s popularity (or lack of it) will have much to do with it.
You need to find another obsession. How about criticizing Mal and the LNP occasionally? On second thoughts, don’t bother – we all know you won’t really mean it. You will continue to pretend to be a Green, when it is clear you are an LNP troglodyte.
Jack, 95
[Maybe it’s pretty accurate and the sovereign people are acting weirdly? Like something close to love for Malcolm for a while and then a cooling-off?]
That’s certainly possible, but it wasn’t reflected in the ReachTEL/Newspoll that we’ve had (which had a nicer curve as opposed to shooting up to a plateau at 55+% and then shooting back down again). Maybe the rest will record drops in party support too though – we haven’t had an Ipsos yet.
[Melissa Parke is on her way out now she has a sugar daddy boyfriend.]
Does her husband know about this?
MTBW re Dreyfus,
Do you want Dreyfus to lead the ALP for the same reason I want Megyn Kelly to run for POTUS?
Boris @106,
Exactly.
Another question is why executives of a private mining company would be at the meeting as well between a Australian government Minister and a Chinese minister.
Cheers.
Boris @106,
Exactly.
Another question is why executives of a private mining company would be at the meeting as well between a Australian government Minister and a Chinese minister.
Cheers.
Boris @106,
Exactly.
Another question is why executives of a private mining company would be at the meeting as well between a Australian government Minister and a Chinese minister.
Cheers.
Boris – I’m also mystified as to why a minister or anyone else is accused of the heinous crime of promoting an Australian business.
Boris @106,
Exactly.
Another question is why executives of a private mining company would be at the meeting as well between a Australian government Minister and a Chinese minister.
Cheers.
Boris @106,
Exactly.
Another question is why were executives of the mining company at a meeting between a Australian government minister and a Chinese government minister.
Please excuse my repeats.
I am still engaged in a war between myself and my iPad.
Cheers.
many many many more questions Doyley 🙂
Shirley one of the strengths of the ALP right now is they have a leader the MPs want, not a leader the MPs think the public want them to have but cant stand him and wont stand for his preferred policies.
Simon Katich
[ Shirley one of the strengths of the ALP right now is they have a leader the MPs want … ]
Agreed. But don’t call me “Shirley”!
Very interesting poll results, the honeymoon is unquestionably over, now the real policy battles can begin with Shorten ahead on points so far given the sinking of the gst. The voters have made their feelings known.
Turnbull can regain those points but he’ll have to do so at the risk of some core votes.
So, what does $2 million buy you?
It’s the narrowi…
Oh, wait…
I can’t understand Shorten’s PPM ratings. You’d have thought he’d come out and promised to introduce a medicare co-payment, or raise the GST, or stuff innovation & technology (Holden + NBN + CSIRO), perhaps even drag us back into a middle east war.
The list of this governments shame is endless.
If it’s all down to dumping Abbott then he had as equal an influence as Turnbull did in ridding us of the man.
So, for those posters who think he’s doing a bad job, what exactly is he doing wrong.
The Ministerial Code of Conduct is designed to stop corruption whereby a minister uses his official government position to further his interests or the interests of a mate.
It is so tightly worded that it prohibits not only the fact, but the perception of corruption.
Robert has been on ministerial pay for two and one half years and no-one in Australia can name a single ministerial achievement.
He has actually done SFA.
He is also remarkably stupid.
He should be sacked for achieving nothing.
He should be sacked for being a dill.
He should be sacked for not understanding that being duchessed by a $2 million donor with skin in the game is a bad look and behaving like he is on official business and pretending he is on private business (or vice versa, take your pick) turns him into a walking political IED.
What has yet to be clarified is whether Robert had shares in Nimrod or associated entities. That is to say whether he had an actual pecuniary interest in the Nimrod deal.
This guy is lead in the Government’s saddlebags.
If he were an insecure worker in the fruit picking industry, Pizza Boys, 7/11 or Dick Smith he would have been given the chop a long time ago.
lizzie at 62
“Virginia Trioli actually did a good job on Q&A. I think it suits her batter than the morning program.”
My wife & I agree entirely & have been saying as much for sometime.
bw@128
If truth be told, I hadn’t much heard of Roberts till he landed in the sh*t. So agree “He has actually done SFA”.
[So, for those posters who think he’s doing a bad job, what exactly is he doing wrong.]
Great question. If a person looks at Shorten and Turnbull and comes away favouring Turnbull the problem isn’t with Shorten.
Turnbull had McIntyre sacked quick smart even though McIntyre said he was acting in a private capacity.
This is a bit of a non sequitur relating to the Brisbane mayoral election. Liberal mayor Quirk is proposing a $1.5 billion tunnel metro saying
[“The Brisbane Metro is a step up from Light Rail – it’s a segregated, high frequency subway system with the potential to carry 30,000 passengers an hour, 10 times the potential capacity of the Gold Coast Light Rail.”]
https://www.teamquirk.com.au/high-frequency-brisbane-metro-to-cut-travel-times/
Rubbish i say! A modern metro has more capacity than light rail, maybe +50% considering best case examples of each, not ten times. The metro model Quirk shows pictures of is by Alstom in the French city of Lille. It has a reported capacity of 17,000 passengers per hour one way (you can check the Alstom website). Those with the 30,000 passengers per hour capacity Quirk reports are larger and more expensive. And the capacity of this Quirky metro is not all gain – the capacity of existing busway elements is lost.
Meanwhile the Gold Coast LRT Quirk disparages has a current one way capacity of 2500 passengers per hour. But its potential capacity is much higher – at least 5500 passengers per hour, more if the trams are lengthened, which they are designed to allow (these days they are all modular). The new Sydney SE LRT will have a capacity at opening of 9000 passengers per day.
The point of this diatribe is not to be a sales pitch for LRT. Light rail and metros are both good in the right place. The problem here is a politician being shifty with facts, suggesting a very expensive solution to a problem, just to attack the (quite sensible and previously analysed) Labor plan. I pity Brisbane ratepayers if Quirk wins – another billion wasted on an unnecessary tunnel.
Got the latest Centrelink “News for Seniors” newsletter in the mail today. Includes a message from the (new) Minister, one Stuart Robert. Wonder who the next “new” Minister will be, hardly had time to get to know Mr Robert.
Interestingly, he describes himself as a father and a businessman, not a politician. Perhaps when he got to China he was acting in his capacity as a businessman and forgot he was a politician.
LOL
Frank Keany @FJKeany 6m6 minutes ago
Bill Morrow says 2016 will be a “tipping point” for new NBN connections, footprint is now 1.7 million homes #estimates
Its not a good look when your share market indices are back at 2006 levels.
http://hfgapps.hubb.com/asxtools/imageChart.axd?s=xjo&pi=Index&ct=3&tf=M10&ovs=&si=Code%20not%20supplied&tima1=0&tima2=0&bi=2&bima=0&comt=index&ds=xjo&dovs=0&ex=ASX&ex2=ASX&val=1&stmp=20160209200017223
WWP, 131
“It’s the electorate’s fault for supporting the wrong party”
Shouldn’t ESJ pop in to post ‘slip slip slipping away’?
MTBW
I’m with you re Dreyfus being Labor Leader. He has long been the star Labor performer in and out of Parliament.
Dreyfus presents well on a personal level, has an air of authority about him, speaks with conviction, and is quite persuasive.
I admit voting for Shorten, with a heavy heart, but knowing that Tanya Plibersek would be his deputy.
[ Shouldn’t ESJ pop in to post ‘slip slip slipping away’? ]
Either him, or maybe silmaj will arrive with his usual dose of:
“y’ll all be rooned, gie up na yer daft scunners!!”
🙂
[“It’s the electorate’s fault for supporting the wrong party”]
Fault is probably the wrong word – but the electorate gets what it deserves and wants. This term it was Tony. If they want Malcolm next term I’m not seeing an electorate that is real bright.
[Sky News Australia
Sky News Australia – Verified account @SkyNewsAust
.@ljayes says Labor had Stuart Robert on the ropes today. His position is looking more and more untenable #TheLatest http://snpy.tv/1QSl5Gg ]
[newmatilda
newmatilda – @newmatilda
Senator Calls For Inquiry Into Nick Ross Affair And ABC’s “Hit Piece” On Labor’s NBN http://bit.ly/1LcZ4Oc ]
[I admit voting for Shorten, with a heavy heart, but knowing that Tanya Plibersek would be his deputy.]
You like caucus (well obviously even more so caucus that was the bit that Shorten actually won) then elected Shorten to lead the party knowing the mechanism to replace him was very difficult and that essentially you were electing him to run through this election.
Like caucus you need to ride the pony over the finish line.
As for those of us who weren’t even labor members and those like Nicholas who loathes labor we are free to have an opinion but we chose not even to participate so we can’t complain that Labor has chosen a leader to lead to and through the election.
imacca
[‘scunners’]
You lost me with ‘scunners’. Translation?
CTar1
imacca’s inner Hoots Mon breaking out.
@129 my partner and I agree the ABC breakfast crew is undoubtedly the most boring of any of the breaky crews on any channel. Beats Sunrise hands down. Specifically I find the sports guy the most boring. Virginia Triolli, IMHO, is reminiscent of Andrew Bolt ie snug, way too cocky, opinionated and full of herself. The fact she is female is irrelevant, and do hope she performs way better on QnA.
poroti
In kiwiland somem saying they were scunnered was occasional heard. There it meant you were knackered ,done in , done you dash, skint ,bust.
somem = someone
poroti – Thanks maybe.