It looks like the only two new federal polls this week are the regular Essential Research and Roy Morgan series, and a solid drop for the Coalition from Roy Morgan brings the two much closer together than they have been since Malcolm Turnbull assumed the prime ministership. Essential is its usual stable self, with the Coalition’s modest two-party lead of 51-49 unchanged on last week. The primary votes are 43% for the Coalition (down one), 35% for Labor (steady) and 11% for the Greens (steady). The voting intention results were derived from online polling conducted over the two previous weeks, from an overall sample of about 2000. From this week’s sample of 1000 only, the poll also offers us Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which find Malcolm Turnbull steady on 51% approval and up two on disapproval to 27%, while Bill Shorten is steady on 27% approval and up one on disapproval to 48%. Turnbull’s lead on preferred prime minister has increased from 51-18 to 52-15. Respondents were also asked to register two reasons why the government might wish to reform the tax system, for which the most popular response by some margin was “to address the budget deficit”, which was rated first or second by 58%. Favoured possibilities for revenue raising followed the usual pattern in coming in highest for proposals targeting multinational corporations and high income earners, with a GST increase rating last out of seven listed options. When forced to choose between higher income tax or a higher GST, 37% came down for don’t know.
Morgan’s two-party measures record their first significant movement of the Turnbull era, with the Coalition’s respondent-allocated two-party lead down from 55-45 to 52.5-47.5, and previous election preferences down from 54-46 to 52.5-47.5. Clearly rounding and changed preference flows had a fair bit to do with this, because the primary votes are little changed, with the Coalition steady on 43.5%, Labor up a point to 29%, and the Greens up a point to 16%. The poll was conducted by face-to-face and SMS over the two previous weekends, from a sample of 3072.
Shellbell – Someone must have been drunk at the wheel the last time.
[Trouble is, the same people sometimes post real gems so can’t just scroll past them.]
I heard Hugh Jackman has a brother who is a SC. Apparently when they were younger, the brother was the ‘looker’.
I could talk about trains too.
Or shovels.
SK –
This is an interesting theory, and I am open to your conclusion.
However I’d remind you that this is primarily a market research opportunity – a la Morgan, but different sampling methods – and the same pool of people is regularly asked about (I’m guessing) washing powder brands and how charming Karl Stefanovic was in whatever advertorial was shown recently.
I’m assuming that there are modest rewards for responding to surveys otherwise they would get hardly any responses at all.
Whether it’s politics or washing powder I doubt the regular participants care too much.
The most likely reason for the change in the Morgan 2PP is that more of those 16% of Green primary have switched their preferences over to Labor which makes sense. It’s hard to believe the 16% is real as it is too different from all the other polling.
Perhaps about 5% of those 16% are Labor voters who don’t like Shorten?
[ The burning question in the Stuart Robert saga, is how did the media get the suggestion that he may have breached ministerial code. Remember this happened over a year ago ]
Oh thats an easy one Vic. Peta’s dirt file slipped out of the box as they were moving her out of her office and got picked up by a parliament house cleaner. 🙂
[Also, if the voters didnt like an increase in the GST, they are going to hate privatisation of Medicare]
Privatisation of Medicare could / should be hated by people in favour of a GST rise.
imacca
Sounds about right. 😀
adrian
[A female presenter would be a good start as long as its not Virginia Triolli or Annabel Crabb.]
Sarah Ferguson? 😉
davidwh
[Perhaps about 5% of those 16% are Labor voters who don’t like Shorten?]
Did Rex get polled?
Sarah Ferguson would be good as host of Q & A, or anyone who isn’t a blowhard. It’s not surprising that many women turn down the chance to appear on a show moderated by a preening show pony.
ABC News – Verified account @abcnews
Timeline: @stuartrobertmp under pressure over China visit
http://ab.co/20HgNtE
ABC News
ABC News
Virginia Trioli actually did a good job on Q&A. I think it suits her batter than the morning program.
ooops, better. Eating and typing together 🙁
Nicholas
Sarah Ferguson is Tony Jones’ wife and I don’t think it is appropriate that each of them have two of the best programs given to a married couple.
Nicholas & Baba
I think your are both relatively well informed chaps but I haven’t seen this given adequate weight in your discussion.
With the removal of negative gearing from established properties rents would likely FALL in the medium term because house prices would reduce.
Less investors = lower demand = lower prices
The market then finds equilibrium at lower rents & lower house prices with house prices falling faller than rent.
In this way investors return to the market for established properties when house prices have fallen sufficiently to bring investment returns to an acceptable level.
This is good for the long term health of the economy as it massively increases our competitiveness (wages don’t need to be as high when housing costs are lower).
But in the short term in could be problematic, not because it would force rents up (Nicholas is right that it wouldn’t) but because it will cause house prices to fall which will shock the banks, hurt many consumers (even as it benefits others), send some businesses to the wall, image consumer sentiment (in the short term) and massively reduce the value of our banks.
It would also hurt governments in foregone revenue from stamp duty & capital gains which would have to be offset against the savings from abolishing negative gearing.
One of those too big to fail moments.
So short term it leads to extreme pain (but not because of increasing rents but because of falling house prices) but in the medium to long term represents as massive gain for the Australian economy (for many more reasons than I have had to discuss here).
image = damage, over zealous spell correct
victoria,
The meeting with the Chinese Minister has been mentioned before, however, what has now been made public is when Robert met with the Chnese minister executives from Nimrod mining were present at the meeting.
This was not mentioned by Robert or the government before.
Robert met with a Chinese government Minister and at that meeting reps from the mining company were present.
Robert had stated he was in China in a private capacity so what was he doing firstly meeting with the Chnese government and secondly why were reps from the Mining company there.
Was Robert using his position as a Government Miinister to lobby on behalf of the Mining company?
If not why have the mining executives there ?
Many questions still to answer.
Cheers.
it continues…
Doyley
I see what you mean. As indicated earlier and in media reports, Peter Van Onselen will be interviewing Stuart Robert tomorrow before next QT. I daresay it will be to give The minister opporunity to clarify what occurred
Most opinion polls interrupt the person polled (by SMS, phone call or live interviewer). I think it’s possible that this leads to people responding based on the latest thing they have heard or seen, which is often something misleading in the media.
In contrast, Essential, I think, send out an email to each member of its panel and they can respond at their leisure (subject to a deadline of course).
It’s more likely, therefore, that they will base their answers on their underlying values and their assessment of what the various parties offer them. This is likely to be a much less volatile assessment than the other pollsters who are just getting “on the hop” reactions.
RD
Fantastic. Does that mean if Shorten becomes even less popular, the 2pp will be in Labor’s favour?!
Politicians are their own worst enemies. Minister Robert the latest example…. incompetent former PM ‘s Abbott and Rudd the shining performers.
SK
I don’t know about shovels but I’ve written many times about badgers -v- quick trains (I actually know nothing about these either).
victoria
It likely means the ALP would hold a commanding lead if they had a respected leader.
LGH
Rents are not a function of costs but of markets. Whether rents go up or down will have far less to do with the cost of properties than with how many people are looking for rental properties. My guess is that with investment properties being less attractive without negative gearing the supply might actually drop below demand over time. However, that would depend on the local conditions.
Yes, that is one of the points I made (unclearly due to typos).
Removing negative gearing for existing housing leads to less incentive for investors to pour money into existing housing.
Less money chasing housing results in lower house prices.
Lower house prices induces some people to exit the rental market because they can now afford to buy.
People exiting the rental market takes some heat out of that market, causing rents to fall.
It’s a virtuous circle, and one that our government should be promoting.
Rex you are fixated on the wrong poll. When people go into the polling booth they are asked which party/candidate are you voting for. The question of preferred PM is essentially a beauty contest question. LOTO because of the nature of the job are nearly always behind on this question which incidentally has never appeared on any election ballot paper. The 2PP is THE question that you need to focus on
Rex D
As has been said before on numerous occasions, there is no one in team Labor that match Turnbull. It is incumbent on team Labor to expose Turnbull for the hollow man he is
I don’t think it reflects well on Shorten that his net satisfaction rating is still negative 21. Labor can’t afford the indulgence of having such a poorly esteemed leader.
victoria
The polls suggest a new ALP leader doesn’t have to be as popular as Malcolm… rather just a little more acceptable to the voters than Bill Shorten.
Nicholas
I am with you how about we give Dreyfus a go!
It would be nice to have the weekly breakdown of these 2 polls. Pity no Reachtel, Newspoll or Ipsos this week.
I like Morgan because it’s reactive, but we have never seen an actual election at 57-53, even though Morgan often goes there (mind you, it’s usually quite accurate just before an actual election).
Essential had seemed to be oscillating around 51.5, and it wouldn’t surprise me if it has dropped below 51. Pity they don’t round to the nearest half just to give some sense of movement.
If bludgertrack gets to 52 or less for the Lib’s in the next few weeks then the threat of an early election becomes completely hollow, and not worth all the problems the various early options create (outlined by Anthony Green).
[ABC News – Verified account @abcnews
Timeline: @stuartrobertmp under pressure over China visit
http://ab.co/20HgNtE
ABC News
ABC News]
On the contrary – there are two:
1. Melissa Parke (she’s on the way out of Parliament but then so was Colin Barnett before he was drafted to the leadership of his party).
2. Tanya Plibersek (She’s a bit wobbly – tends to kowtow to bad policy in the mistaken belief that this helps her credibility. However, she can present an argument and connect on a human level more effectively than Bill Shorten.)
Rex
By all means let us focus on Labor whilst this govt is taking this country backwards. We have ministers droppin off like flies for questionable conduct. Retiring MPs being given cushy jobs. The spectre of the privatisation of Medicare. Puhleease
RD
[
It likely means the ALP would hold a commanding lead if they had a respected leader.
]
I think you are underestimating how valuable unity and consistency are to any opposition (or government for that matter).
Based on the two latest polls the 2PP comes out on my calculations around 53/47 which may be a little kind to the Coalition. The next NewsPoll will help.
I don’t think the apparent material Morgan 2PP movement means a great deal because the 2PP previously always looked too good for the Coalition. They would have had to received a larger % of second preferences than was believable.
I think we are probably still sitting around 53/52 to 48/47 with a slight movement back to Labor.
Nicholas
You green supporters are a laugh a second!
Vic why do you deride anyone who doesn’t agree with you?
[30.I don’t think it reflects well on Shorten that his net satisfaction rating is still negative 21. Labor can’t afford the indulgence of having such a poorly esteemed leader.]
Any voter that looks at Turnbull and Shorten and had a problem with shorten is dangerously stupid. But what do you do find someone like Abbott to replace shorten he polled really well.
victoria
I think you’d agree that the major focus of PBers is on the Govt’s woes.
Much, much earlier I pointed out that Mark McGowan in WA had Labor at 53-47 in 2PP not so long ago. He also led Colin Barnett as preferred Premier.
Yet, lo and behold, some journo claims there is a move, by Labor, to get rid of McGowan because he lacks “charisma” or something.
So, I suspect, if Shorten got to this kind of position the “Get Bill” mob would boringly, and with utter predictability, claim that somebody who is less “poorly esteemed” or more “respected” should lead Labor.
Rex D
And rightly so
[You green supporters are a laugh a second!]
If Morgan’s primary for the Greens is really around 16% then you better not upset them too much Victoria 🙂
Personally I think it too high and closer to the other polling 11/12% but Labor still need to get a large % of their preferences.
Airlines @ 37:
[Morgan has been acting weirdly – it’s like it snapped into a Coalition frenzy over the past few months, and, without warning, just snapped back right now.]
Maybe it’s pretty accurate and the sovereign people are acting weirdly? Like something close to love for Malcolm for a while and then a cooling-off?
davidwh
the Greens should be focussed on how this govt is conducting itself, instead of worrying about Labor
Oh and Lizzie, re this morn’s posts about Googling your way around Rupe’s paywall – my nerdy son (well, the nerdiest of my 3 nerdy sons) suggests you turn off Javascript on your browser and see if that calls Rupe’s servers’ bluff.
[the Greens should be focussed on how this govt is conducting itself, instead of worrying about Labor]
I think many of the Green voters here would argue they can do both and the second point is critical to the first point. If Turnbull is really a dud then we are in the danger territory of electing two duds in a row. That is likely their concern.
Jack A Randa
You managed to have three nerdy sons! Out of my three kids, I only managed one nerdy daughter. 😀
In an electoral system designed for two parties to alternate between government and opposition, those of us who oppose the Coalition have to be DEEPLY worried about Labor’s decisions. It would be great if we had a different electoral system but Labor and the Coalition don’t want a parliament that represents the diversity of priorities and views in the electorate.