Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition

Slight movement to Labor in Essential Research’s first poll for the year, which also finds that Labor and Coalition voters feel almost exactly the same way about the US presidential election.

Essential Research has opened its account for 2016 with a poll that records a one-point shift away from the Coalition off what was already a very low base for them, relative to the other pollsters. Compared with the last poll in mid-December, the Coalition is down a point to 44%, while Labor and the Greens are steady on 35% and 10%. This being the first result of the year, the result encompasses 1011 respondents polled from Friday to Monday, rather than Essential’s usual two-week rolling average. Also featured are the monthly personal ratings for the leaders, which find Malcolm Turnbull down five on approval to 51% and up two on disapproval to 25%, while Bill Shorten is exactly unchanged at 27% and 47% respectively. Turnbull’s lead on preferred prime minister is down from 54-15 to 51-18.

The poll also has a straightforward question on favoured candidate to win the US presidential elections, offering four named options: Hillary Clinton on 40%, Donald Trump on 12%, Bernie Sanders on 6% and Ted Cruz on 2%, leaving 8% for “someone else” and 32% for “don’t know”. Remarkably, breakdowns by party support show statistically identical results for Labor and Coalition supporters (but nearly ten times as much support for Sanders among Greens voters). Further questions find consistent agreement that sexism and discrimination against women exists to at least some extent in workplaces, media, politics, advertising and sport (from 58% to 62% opting for a lot or some), but less so in schools, where 44% opted for a lot or some, and 41% for a little or none.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

688 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  1. Long time lurker and I’m astounded at the lack of basic manners shown by some posters. Yes, no one can see you, no one knows what you look like and you are essentially untraceable. This should not mean that you can insult, denigrate, bully or treat unkindly other posters. It is cowardly and a poor reflection on your level of social development. Yes some posters have a very different view of the world, I daresay often bordering on ‘troubled’, but I doubt ranting against them will change them and anyway, karma may come their way. So much time is spent on ‘he says, she says’ that reading this blog is tiresome from time to time. I’m sure William probably finds it so too but that would be being presumptive I think. Please feel free to say what you like about me for saying this, but please be nice to everyone else.

  2. [Global fish catches are falling three times faster than official UN figures suggest, according to a landmark new study, with overfishing to blame.

    Seafood is the critical source of protein for more than 2.5 billion people, but over-exploitation is cutting the catch by more than 1m tonnes a year.

    The official catch data, provided by nations to the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), rarely includes small-scale, sport or illegal fishing and does not count fish discarded at sea. To provide a better estimate, more than 400 researchers around the world spent a decade finding other data to fill in the gaps.

    The results, published in the journal Nature Communications, show the annual catches between 1950 and 2010 were much bigger than thought, but that the decline after the peak year of 1996 was much faster than official figures.]

    http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/jan/19/overfishing-causing-global-catches-to-fall-three-times-faster-than-estimated

  3. Re Abbott’s comeback:

    If it was just Abbott alone sitting on the backbench like a shag on a rock, his presence would continue to benefit Waffles right up to election day as a reminder of what a disaster he is.

    However, with a small coterie of hugely disgruntled supporters making waves all the time, people will be reminded of the Rudd group in the Parliamentary Labor Party and the mischief they made. And to make matters worse, while the general public sort of hoped that Rudd would come back and replace Gillard, they are afraid that Abbott will come back and replace Turncoat. And fear trumps hope every time.

    There is fertile ground here for Labor to exploit!

  4. bemused @ 347,

    ‘ I thought Abbott and Baird were mates. Not so?’

    They are by dint of proximity with their respective seats. Manly and Warringah. Also because they both love to surf in their spare time. They are also both deeply religious. However I think Baird is an Anglican and Abbott of course is a Catholic. They would have known each other going way back in the Liberal Party in NSW. I think where they differ is in their style. Obviously. I believe you could also discern a difference in the nature of the causes they support from their different ecumenical perspectives. Baird’s are those of the softer Anglican social areas, as you would also realise from reading his sister Julia’s articles and seeing her on ‘Compass’ on the ABC.

    I would hazard a guess that Tony Abbott, as so many have stated, is actually quite charming in the social context and so would get on with Mike Baird well privately.

  9. Isn’t it interesting how Abbott believes another dose of those jut-jawed, legs akimbo, purposeful stare photos of him will endear him to the electorate all over again?

    He must have been practising that one on the front page of the Murdoch tabloids all over Christmas, alone in his parliamentary office, with only Peta to encourage him and give him advice. 😉

  10. Another question for any Qld experts – the 2016 Brisbane Council and mayoral elections. Any vies on polls or outcomes/

    I ask because once again, we see the two sides shaping up to make a political football out of transport projects. Liberal mayor Quirk wants to press ahead with an unpopular road project so that it is too far gone to stop before the poll. Shades of EW Link…

    Labor candidate Harding wants to do a light rail scheme instead. I’d prefer the latter too, on cost, capacity, amenity and need grounds. But that hasn’t stopped other freeways lately. So… does anyone have knowledge of how this might play out?

    Have a good day all.

  11. [Why do you think this? The switch out from Abbott has worked brilliantly for them thus far.]

    You can only be crediting the polls for your ‘worked out brilliantly’ so far. Short term poll driven politics and the indecision and populist rubbish it drives has to be the greatest flaw in current political thinking. Often called the Labor disease it clearly affects the Libs too.

  12. Socrates@357

    Hello all. Bemused for balance on that story John Faine should also take a call from the Creationist’s psychiatrist. Indeed, why did Faine even take the call?

    Speaking of great minds, I chuckled at this one:
    http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/jan/19/sarah-palin-endorses-donald-trump-for-president

    Inspired by this, I’d like to see Gina Reinhardt endorse another Tony Abbott challenge for the Liberal leadership.

    Faine interviewed a female scientist from the US and when he started taking calls the creationist guy was first up.

    Why did Faine take the call? Well it was seriously entertaining to have such weird beliefs and Faine certainly challenged him. I doubt any listeners were persuaded to the creationist POV. 😆

  14. lizzie @ 356,
    You will never believe this but I have a friend, staunch Labor, whose husband is a Dentist, and she told me the story of Tony Abbott speaking at the Annual Dentists Conference Dinner. She was quite bowled over by how charming he was!

  15. C@tmomma@364

    lizzie @ 356,
    You will never believe this but I have a friend, staunch Labor, whose husband is a Dentist, and she told me the story of Tony Abbott speaking at the Annual Dentists Conference Dinner. She was quite bowled over by how charming he was!

    Someone must have put laughing gas into the air conditioning system. 😐

  16. [The Liberals hope to raise and widen GST. ]

    It has little to do with the liberals they technically haven’t joined the party yet.

    Far from being a new idea it has been the only idea in business consulting circles for about 5 years. Journalists spend more time in these circles than they do in lefty meetings, so for journs raising the GST has been the only accepted mainstream revenue raising concept for two years. Then last year KPMG and the fin officially adopted a broader base and a 15% rate as the solution.

    Noone is obliged to accept this decision of the unelected elite snobs whose primary driver / hope is a lower corp tax rate, but until very recently they were fighting against no opposition, so in thought leadership terms have a four year head start on the No GST increase argument.

    I must say Labor has VERY weak links with the business lobby groups, someone needs to share the ‘keep your enemy close’ principal, so they can at least know when these debates start and prepare for them.

  17. http://www.canberratimes.com.au/business/aviation/singapore-airlines-to-being-canberra-international-flights-from-september-20160119-gm9ipj.html

    [The capital express route linking Canberra with Singapore and Wellington will take off from September.

    Singapore Airlines is announcing on Wednesday the international flights, as the first carrier to fly directly to Canberra from overseas.

    The first flight will land in September, subject to regulatory approval, but tickets will go on sale from next week. It will be known as the Capital Express route.]

  18. C@tmomma

    I do find it hard to believe, but Abbott has been surrounded by the privileged all his life and I suppose he has picked up a few hints on behaviour. I think he’s a chameleon who takes on the colour of whoever he’s with. There have been a few examples of this. However, when he’s being real, or thinks no one is watching…

    Talking of his stance – I noticed that when Mal was surrounded by heavily masculine Diggers, he adopted that same macho stance, with legs astride, hands on hips, thumbs pointed into groin, just like Tony.

  22. The Daily Telecrap is giving prominence to a story “Tony Abbott’s plan to be PM again”. It is billed as an ‘exclusive’. It’s behind the paywall so I can’t tell everyone what the plan is.

  24. [Jessica van Vonderen
    Jessica van Vonderen – Verified account ‏@jessvanvonderen

    ABC radio news at 10: Liberal frontbenchers dismiss possibility of Tony Abbott returning as PM @612brisbane ]

  25. [Former Prime Minister Tony Abbott is expected to recontest his seat of Warringah at this year’s federal election and is holding onto hope of returning to run the country.

    His former chief of staff Peta Credlin is understood to have urged Mr Abbott to remain in politics in the hope of a possible comeback to the top job.

    The Daily Telegraph reports that Mr Abbott has ambitions that he can emulate former ­Liberal prime ministers John Howard and Robert Menzies.

    A spokesman for Mr Abbott today described the Daily Telegraph report as “fanciful”.

    Mr Abbott has not commented publicly on his plans, but it is understood he will run again.]

    Hi Steve this is from The Aussie today.

  27. Thank you David.

    Re Victoria @374: if we start hearing pledges of undying loyalty to Malcolm we’ll know its on, but nothing will happen before the election (in my inexpert opinion).

    On the other hand, if Malcolm loses, or if the polls go bad into the second Turnbull Government, Malcolm won’t be very secure.

  28. [I struggle to imagine you in a “macho stance”.]

    That’s the thing with a softie blog name like ‘Lizzie’. Conceals the real person.

  29. lizzie@378

    I struggle to imagine you in a “macho stance”.


    That’s the thing with a softie blog name like ‘Lizzie’. Conceals the real person.

    I rather like the personality you present. 🙂

  35. [“Singapore Airlines is announcing on Wednesday the international flights, as the first carrier to fly directly to Canberra from overseas.

    The first flight will land in September, subject to regulatory approval, but tickets will go on sale from next week. It will be known as the Capital Express route.”]

    Why not Bullshit Express?

    Or “Taxpayer Funded Holiday Junket Express”?

    Just doesn’t have the same ring to it does it.

  36. [“I think the Second-Coming of Christ has more chance of happening than the second-coming of Abbott.”]

    Margie might disagree with you there

  46. Steve777

    [The Daily Telecrap is giving prominence to a story “Tony Abbott’s plan to be PM again”. It is billed as an ‘exclusive’. It’s behind the paywall so I can’t tell everyone what the plan is.]

    I’m sure it’s a cunning plan, Baldric-style.

  49. I think it is just that on blogs like this we get to know each other enough to be comfortable being ‘robust’ but without the actual human interaction elements to progress to more normal interaction modes.

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