Essential Research has opened its account for 2016 with a poll that records a one-point shift away from the Coalition off what was already a very low base for them, relative to the other pollsters. Compared with the last poll in mid-December, the Coalition is down a point to 44%, while Labor and the Greens are steady on 35% and 10%. This being the first result of the year, the result encompasses 1011 respondents polled from Friday to Monday, rather than Essential’s usual two-week rolling average. Also featured are the monthly personal ratings for the leaders, which find Malcolm Turnbull down five on approval to 51% and up two on disapproval to 25%, while Bill Shorten is exactly unchanged at 27% and 47% respectively. Turnbull’s lead on preferred prime minister is down from 54-15 to 51-18.
The poll also has a straightforward question on favoured candidate to win the US presidential elections, offering four named options: Hillary Clinton on 40%, Donald Trump on 12%, Bernie Sanders on 6% and Ted Cruz on 2%, leaving 8% for “someone else” and 32% for “don’t know”. Remarkably, breakdowns by party support show statistically identical results for Labor and Coalition supporters (but nearly ten times as much support for Sanders among Greens voters). Further questions find consistent agreement that sexism and discrimination against women exists to at least some extent in workplaces, media, politics, advertising and sport (from 58% to 62% opting for a lot or some), but less so in schools, where 44% opted for a lot or some, and 41% for a little or none.
lizzie @ 247: That link is pure gold.
“One Liberal MP said it was difficult ‘to find a (private sector) job for a former Prime Minister so young,’ and therefore he had a chance at regaining a ministry job or even the top spot for a second time.”
So young?? Mr Abbott when he gained the PM’s job was older than Malcolm Fraser was when he lost it.
Frankly, it would always be difficult to find a private sector job for a proven incompetent like Mr Abbott. What sort of company would want to send such a signal about its values to the community? (And it doesn’t help that Mr Abbott’s final act as PM was to preside over a wild party marked by mass vandalism on the part of his supporters.)
And Ms Credlin needs to come to terms with the fact that Mr Abbott would only ever have the slightest chance of making a comeback if she were no longer part of the package.
pedant
It is indeed “difficult” to find a private sector job for a former PM with no talent except the ability to wreck an economy (and a society). What Board would want him amongst them? 😆
lizzie:
Yes that’s a fair point about CSIRO.
It’s good to see the Liberals are in election mode for a Labor victory…….
lizzie @ 252: When somebody has been as controversial a character as Mr Abbott, any move by a business to give him a job would be seen as a political statement in itself. It would be more trouble than it was worth.
The fact that his response to losing the job was an industrial-strength dummy spit – out of sight for 24 hours, supervising the breaking of marble tables – wouldn’t be lost on those with memories. He actually had a chance there to set a course for the future: a graceful departure would have been remembered for the right reasons. Instead, he displayed a fundamental petulance and immaturity almost unprecedented in an Australian PM.
‘fess/lizzie
‘Chief Scientist’ – Niether brand of government have used the potential of the appointees to this position very well at all, with most of them being simply ignored.
I bet Penny Sackett in particular wonders why she wasted three years of her time doing it.
CTar1
Science became sooo unfashionable… Yes, it’s a crying shame.
When will Mal back up his cry for innovation by restoring funding for CSIRO research?
dave
[… is cover your medals (if you have them) with your hand when doing so – on the basis that the dead don’t need to be ‘impressed’ with your medals – so its an added measure of respect.]
That explains it for me.
Tks
lizzie
[Mr Abbott was reportedly coaxed by his former chief-of-staff Peta Credlin to recontest the seat of Warringah]
Is Credlin also ‘seeking employment’?
The other interesting thing about the Daily Mail article on Mr Abbott was the proposition that he is still “bitter”. Well, that would seem to imply that he’s blaming everyone but himself for his woes. The bottom line is, his colleagues could see he was leading them on a one-way trip to the morgue, and took the appropriate evasive action.
The comeback characters typically cited in such articles – Menzies, Howard and so on – all shared one crucial feature: they learnt from their earlier mistakes. Mr Abbott will be going precisely nowhere until he acquires the ability to so learn, which he has plainly lacked for most of his life. One would suspect that Ms Credlin, far from helping him to take this lesson on board, is positively reinforcing his denialism.
In all of this, it’s Mrs Abbott for whom I feel sorry.
Can you imagine Peta Credlin with only a Backbencher’s office to be in charge of? She’d be going stir crazy, as would all those around her having to put up with her mind constantly scheming over very little of substance now. 🙂
C@tmomma
[constantly scheming over very little of substance]
The Vatican would have been an ideal environment for her if only hubby had accepted the offer. 😉
Abbott’s bitterness screams entitlement factor over the leadership. Whatever happened to the leadership being a unique gift of the partyroom?
This gave me the giggles
[Nine News Australia
Nine News Australia – Verified account @9NewsAUS
Dumped Prime Minister Tony Abbott is reportedly not giving up on the hope of becoming nation’s leader again. #9News ]
Vic – Let him keep digging that hole – and drag the lot of them down it with him.
🙂
The likes of howard etc must be wondering how they get rid of him – permanently!
Mr Abbott really has very little understanding of human nature. His colleagues who voted, no doubt with some reluctance, to dump him will be motivated at the moment by confirmation bias. There is no point telling people in such a state of mind that they were wrong: you have to wait until they reach that conclusion themselves, if ever. At the moment, those who voted against him will be looking at his current behaviour and seeing it as justifying the decision they took in September.
confessions @ 264,
‘ Abbott’s bitterness screams entitlement factor over the leadership. Whatever happened to the leadership being a unique gift of the partyroom?’
Once you have won the prize you can afford to be gracious. 🙂
265
victoria
Excellent news for Labor.
The merest hint that Abbott could be restored to the leadership will be enough for the LNP to lose 50 seats.
[15.Abbott’s bitterness screams entitlement factor over the leadership. Whatever happened to the leadership being a unique gift of the partyroom?]
I think both party rooms need to be a little more selective a little more demanding and a lot less willing to jump horses.
It may well still win an election for them but surely the electing of a totally hamstrung Turnbull is the stupidest of all recent PM decisions.
The rooms, the individual MPs, know who they are electing they deserve a lot more of the blame. So many of them sheep that just do what their factional boss does.
Organising a coup would be a lot harder if more people thought for themselves.
A UK cartoonist’s suggestion for improving polling accuracy.
Stupid bike race taking over my town.
I wouldn’t mind the race itself, but all the sweaty alien life forms in Lycra filling the cafés with inane talk of the mornings riding statistics and associated gadgetry is ruining my day. Don’t these twats have big businesses to run? All the companies in Adelaide must be struggling to operate with all their executives out fluffy about pretending to be elite sportsmen on redicously expensive bikes that we workers paid for through our wage restraint!
Go back to the golf courses where you belong!
SandiHLogan: When @farrm51 reports https://t.co/JL9kox4XNC, it’s on. Abbott wants PMship. https://t.co/Mpqo9mDhzB
Already over Malcolm’s excellent US adventure being plastered all over facebook. How many photos can one person post of himself and Obama?
[It may well still win an election for them but surely the electing of a totally hamstrung Turnbull is the stupidest of all recent PM decisions.]
Why do you think this? The switch out from Abbott has worked brilliantly for them thus far.
briefly
I heard Shorten being quoted on radio news break saying something about Abbott wanting the leadership. Labor obviously knows this too
Hmmm. 51-49
Mal is gorne. The king is dead
guytaur
Farr’s piece is from October
Wait until the battle for the NSW Senate spots to represent the Liberal Party gets underway. You will really see a pitched battle being fought there, as Eric Abetz alluded to this morning in his interview on Newsradio which I transcribed.
The leading NSW Conservative, Fieravanti-Wells is having her Number 1 position on the ticket challenged by the Moderates.
Also it was nice to see Peter Dutton finally admit that there are factions in the Liberal Party, just as there are in the Labor Party. They are now formally identified by him as the Conservatives and the Moderates. So they can never again in the Liberal Party criticise the Labor Party for it being factionalised. So are they!
John Hewson is a huge loss as his political commentary is succinct and cogent. He may have made his run too soon….wish he, like Tony Windsor, were at the pointy end of political leadership in this country. A bipartisan group of eminent individuals , including the likes of Quentin Bryce, Paul Keating and even Rosie Batty, etc., could contribute much to inexperienced new governments should they be open to their combined wisdom.
And that article about by Dave Donovan re the ABC in BK’s links echoes my despair about our once trusted ABC. Whatever happened to that group ” friends of the ABC”? Crickets…..
C@tmomma@237
You are no doubt referring to my comment @218 which read “Moronic statement.”
My comment was about the statement and you are free to draw any conclusion you wish about the person who made it.
Like Darren Lavers subsequent comment @220, confessions @216 was simply trying to stir up conflict. Both failed.
victoria:
We did say that while Turnbull was out of the country the rats would come out to play.
c@tmomma
fight, fight fight…….. 😀
[276
victoria
briefly
I heard Shorten being quoted on radio news break saying something about Abbott wanting the leadership. Labor obviously knows this too]
The Liberal leadership is not a settled matter. As long as Abbott continues to promote himself and his so-called policies, Turnbull will be harmed and Labor will benefit. No doubt at all.
C@t:
Is my observation that the moderates in the NSW Libs are on the rise an accurate one? That’s how it seems to me.
fess
indeed
Simon Katich @ 277,
‘ Hmmm. 51-49’
Don’t get too excited, Newspoll and the Coalition loving Ipsos are yet to report.
The trend is your friend and thus far it looks promising. But that’s all.
PVO seems to be of the same opinion as us.
vanOnselenP: I do hope this is true…hilarious! @australian https://t.co/Pe6PslMFSA
A fair bit of the recent commentary has talked about the Liberal Party’s “base” as if that’s some sort of immutable structure. That’s a mistake: the nature of a party can change quite quickly, as the disillusioned leave, and are replaced by people more sympathetic to a new leadership regime.
I suspect the current events in NSW are a sign of this. Major parties these days don’t really need much of a membership base: they get public funding to cover their election campaigns, and compulsory voting brings their supporters to the polls. So what if half the “conservatives” in the NSW Liberal Party don’t renew their membership?
confessions @ 285,
‘ Is my observation that the moderates in the NSW Libs are on the rise an accurate one? ‘
If you read my transcript of the Eric Abetz interview just a little bit before BK’s links today you will get the gist of the situation. Basically he is right to opine that he wishes the branch members would be able to get the power to pre-select candidates, which is because the branches are chock full of wealthy conservative retirees. Which is the opposite of the Administrative board of the NSW Liberal Party which is filled with Turnbull clones, business types in expensive suits with sharp elbows.
SKatich
[I wouldn’t mind the race itself, but all the sweaty alien life forms in Lycra filling the cafés with inane talk of the mornings riding statistics and associated gadgetry is ruining my day. ]
Don’t get me started. Small hordes of MAMILs (Middle-Aged Men in Lycra) cycle through my neighbourhood on Saturday morning – sometimes quite early, when all civilised people are sleeping. I wouldn’t give a damn, except they insist on chatting to each other in a loud voice. Sometimes they wake me up. Cycle all you want, but STFU.
[208
confessions
Why the hell is the host (whoever he is) seemingly positioning a GST increase as the mainstream response to declining revenue?]
The Liberals hope to raise and widen GST. They are trying to finesse the issue but that it the plan. The more exposure the plan gets, the better. It is a terrible plan and will be widely resisted. Some in the media are playing along with the Liberal tactics. This is to the detriment of open debate of an idiotic idea.
briefly @ 284: “The Liberal leadership is not a settled matter. As long as Abbott continues to promote himself and his so-called policies, Turnbull will be harmed and Labor will benefit. No doubt at all.”
That’s a perfectly reasonable attitude for the ALP to take for tactical reasons, but I actually don’t think it’s true. At the moment Mr Abbott seems only to be hurting himself. His situation isn’t unlike that of John Gorton post-1971, and I don’t recall that Gorton’s ongoing bitterness figured all that highly in the reasons why the Liberals lost in 1972.
guytaur@273
That article is from October. Not very helpful. 🙁
C@t:
Thanks, that makes sense.
bemused
[ My comment was about the statement and you are free to draw any conclusion you wish about the person who made it. ]
You really are ungracious. Can’t you see that some of the posters here who have suffered your abuse are trying hard to accommodate your appalling behavior?
Personally, I don’t know why they bother. You have demonstrated over the years that you are completely unaware of how offensive many of your posts are, even when it is pointed out to you.
c@t
[They are now formally identified by him as the Conservatives and the Moderates. So they can never again in the Liberal Party criticise the Labor Party for it being factionalised. So are they!]
There are certainly long existing Sydney -v- Melbourne factions over Lib leadership as well.
bemused
It is very helpful. Context. A reminder that this is an ongoing rumble not a new thing at all. Shows division is entrenched despite LNP types running spin as if the LNP was unified under Turnbull.
Their success at this is what allows the Turnbull honeymoon. As soon as the public realises a civil war is happening polls will tumble just as they did for Labor in the RGR years.
briefly:
I bet if they are re-elected we’ll see a GST increase in their second term.
C@tmomma @ 237,
Thanks for that!! You’d think good manners alone would suffice on a public blog.