I have published a new seat of detailed state breakdowns from BludgerTrack, which points to next to no regional variation in the shift to the Coalition on Malcolm Turnbull’s watch, with the possible exception of it being particularly pronounced in Victoria.
Essential Research will resume its publication of weekly federal polling numbers next week – in the meantime, it has treated us to state voting intention results. These are aggregated from Essential’s polling from October through to December, with samples ranging from 797 in South Australia to 3205 in New South Wales, and follow on from a recent state polling onslaught from Newspoll, which you can read all about in the entries below this one. Essential’s results in New South Wales and Victoria aligned very closely with Newspoll, with the Coalition leading 56-44 in the former and Labor leading 53-47 in the latter. However, Labor was credited with a 54-46 lead in South Australia, compared with 51-49 in Newspoll, but was level with the Liberal National Party in Queensland, where Newspoll had Labor leading 52-48. The biggest disrepancy was from Western Australia, where Newspoll had Labor surging to a lead of 53-47, but Essential has the Liberal-National government with its nose in front, by 51-49. For more on the situation in Western Australia, I had a paywalled article in Crikey on Tuesday.
In preselection news, the finalisation of the redistribution process, together with the determination of an increasingly ascendant moderate faction to flex its muscles, is making life extremely interesting for the Liberal Party in New South Wales (as detailed in another of my paywalled articles in Crikey). As well as the threat posed to factional conservative Craig Kelly in Hughes, which was covered here last week, the following brush fires are breaking out, or threatening to:
• Most contentiously, moderates are talking up the prospect that Hume MP Angus Taylor will come under challenge from Russell Matheson, member for the neighbouring seat of Macarthur. The redistribution will transfer the Sydney fringe centre of Camden from Macarthur to Hume, and push Macarthur northwards into Labor-voting suburbs, cutting its margin from 11.3% to 3.3%. Camden is a power base of a local faction identified as the “southern cartel”, which includes Matheson and Wollondilly MP Jai Rowell. It had earlier been part of the Right, but recently shifted allegiance to the moderates, and its presence with Hume has weakened Taylor’s position, despite him having a considerably greater reputation as a rising talent than Matheson. There were suggestions that Taylor might react to such a challenge by joining the Nationals, but he rejected the notion yesterday. Even before talk of a challenge, Taylor had expressed his displeasure with the redistribution, which makes the electorate considerably less rural in character.
• Another member in the moderates’ sights is Concetta Fierravanti-Wells, a Senator and ideological warrior of the Right. Sarah Martin of The Australian reports that the moderates are “absolutely” confident they could see Fierravanti-Wells make way for Richard Shields, “a former deputy state director and head of government relations for the Insurance Council of Australia”.
• Should she choose not to retire, Bronwyn Bishop is set to face a challenge in Mackellar from Jason Falinski, a long-standing moderate operative who has worked for John Hewson and Malcolm Turnbull, and been state president of the Australian Republican Movement. However, Sarah Martin’s report in The Australian says state upper house MP Natasha McLaren-Jones might be another challenger, which is a bit hard to process given that her husband, Damien Jones, is Bishop’s chief-of-staff and has sometimes been mentioned as her favoured successor. Another potential candidate is said to be Jim Longley, who held the state seat of Pittwater from 1986 to 1996, and challenged Bishop for preselection unsuccessfully before the 2013 election.
• Also likely to face preselection challenges if they don’t retire are Philip Ruddock, in Berowra, and Senator Bill Heffernan. Sarah Martin reports that Heffernan is under pressure to make way for Hollie Hughes, the party’s country vice-president. Tony Abbott, on the other hand, is expected to recontest Warringah.
• Gilmore MP Ann Sudmalis faces a challenge from Grant Schultz, son of former Hume MP Alby Schultz, but is “expected to survive”.
Meanwhile, south of the border:
• Royce Millar of The Age reports on a big field of potential contestants for Liberal preselection in the south-eastern Melbourne seat of Dunkley, to be vacated at the election with the retirement of Bruce Billson. Included are Paul Peulich, mayor of Kingston and son of veteran state MP Inga Peulich; Donna Bauer, who held the marginal bayside seat of Carrum from 2010 to 2014; Peter Angelico, founder of Dandenong steel bending company Kazed; Nathan Hersey, a member of Billson’s staff; Theo Zographos, a Monash councillor; Matt Berry, a former staffer to troublesome state Frankston MP Geoff Shaw; and Chris Crewther, who ran for the Nationals-held seat of Mallee in 2013 and now runs a consultancy in Frankston.
• The Victorian Liberal Party is sorting out a replacement for Senator Michael Ronaldson, who is quitting politics after being demoted to the back bench by Malcolm Turnbull, along with the order of its Senate ticket. Richard Willingham of Fairfax reports that candidates for the vacancy include James Paterson, deputy director of the Institute of Public Affairs, and Sean Armistead, a manager at Crown Casino and the Liberals’ unsuccessful candidate for Frankston at the 2014 state election. It appears that whoever gets the gig would have to contest a half-Senate election from the dicey number three position, since support is building for Jane Hume, a senior policy adviser for Australian Super who won preselection for the position last year, to be promoted to the top spot. The second position on the ticket is reserved for the Nationals, whose member is Bridget McKenzie.
[Soft sell or……….]
So few pure loves these days … tainted love … best love our stupid racist scum asses can attract … so fine a difference …
Just watched Monty Pythons Meaning of Life(again) on TV.
Imagine if this movie was released now… the “progressive” leftwing dickheads would have a coronary.
I mean they get upset these days about the colour of someones tie, they are really putting the brakes on freedom of expression.
[Imagine if this movie was released now… the “progressive” leftwing dickheads would have a coronary.]
I love monty python … the were / are funny and essentially antiestablishment not pro establishment … if it was released now we’d love it just as we did before …
Odd you like it, guess you are misinterpreting it …
WeWantPaul@1603
Also strange that it was made by a bunch of lefties. How does that fit TBA’s delusional world view?
WeWantPaul
[Odd you like it, guess you are misinterpreting it …]
May even think this is a promotional film for Tories.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TSqkdcT25ss
[ s everybody buying a tree to plant under their suburban power line to offset the cost to Government of the Hunt/Turnbull latest initiative to … er …do something for some reason or another? ]
Nah. I’m calling my union rep tomorrow to promote davidwh’s idea that Unions get tohether, build and operate new infrastructure, charge rents on it forever more (and much higher ones in blue electorates) and use those $ to fund the ALP. 🙂
And when that all takes off, then i will write to John Howard and tell him the idea came from a Liberal. 🙂
[ guess you are misinterpreting it … ]
WOT!!!! TBA misinterpret something????? Has the world just shuddered on its axis?? The poles reversed?? The sun gone out??
I dont believe it!!
No matter how hard this board tries racism does not extend to being critical or rejectful of another culture or belief system.
If it is valid to be against Nazism (a belief system, and as nazi’s a body of people),
valid to be against neo-conservatism (a belief system, and as a body of people neo-conservatives) & valid to be against Catholicism ( a belief system, and as a body of people Catholics) surely it is valid to be against Islam (a belief system, and as a body of people Muslim’s).
If we can accept that as valid – that it is ok to speak out against a belief system and its faults and the faults of its believers isn’t the issue really about how far it is valid to take action over and above speaking out?
E.g. We might hold that it is valid to speak out against the faults of Catholics and the church and the (ludicrousness) of their devout followers beliefs but hold that it is not acceptable to deny a Catholic a job, or entry to the country as a refugee as that goes beyond criticism and is discriminatory.
So I think there is that part to the argument – I think that some are unfairly criticised for being racist when it is quiet possible, and should be taken as such until shown to be otherwise merely critical and outspoken on a belief system that does have (in many eyes) faults.
Whether a form of discrimination is valid based upon effects on the receiving nation or to stop a bad meme from spreading (e.g. the Germans outlawed Scientology & Nazism, both systems of belief deemed to be abhorrent) is a seperate debate.
Speaking out against Islam is not and example of racism but legitimate criticism of a system of belief.
Zoomster re Islam
+++++++++++++
One should not forget the great contribution to Europe made by Moorish Spain for nearly seven centuries
To see the great structures at Granada and Seville as I did several years ago and see the amazing gardens says much about that time
‘Cordoba had a medical university to which many rich Euros came for treatment even royals
SteelyDan
[Really you think I was being sexist chip on your shoulder much. Ok I get it I should have know because of the pink square.]
Why is it that conservative/rightwing posters here are so poor at punctuation? I would have thought that conservatives, with their love of tradition and convention, would treat the Engish language with some respect.
The first sentence above reads like a Borat quote until you parse it carefully.
[“Also strange that it was made by a bunch of lefties. How does that fit TBA’s delusional world view?”]
Lefties of the 60’s and 70’s are nothing like leftists of today.
I’ll give an example. Let’s take the feminists.
Now back in the 70’s feminism was all about free love, sexual freedom and celebrating being a woman. Getting tits out and bits out was all the rage and being sexual promiscuous was the flavour of the day.
Now days if a woman is asked out for a drink you are branded a sexual predator as if the poor darling can’t handle it. It’s so chalk and cheese from feminists of the past that it really makes feminists of today look like a joke.
Good onya teach, you sound like a real live wire. Let your hair down live a little forget a coma or two or even three, go on you rebel you.
[ I’ll give an example. Let’s take the feminists. ]
You couldn’t script his stuff with a room full of comedians.
[ http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/investigations/clive-palmer/workers-nickeled-and-dimed-as-clive-palmer-cleans-up/news-story/9e9fb23a9c1812ea0eba890daf97475a ]
If any of this turns out to be true, it will be interesting to see how much of a mockery it makes of the “big bad unions” / TURC push, and puts the focus on dodgy employers who just happen to be major ex Liberal donors.
Big Clive is certainly ticking a few of the boxes here.
[ revealed the company owed creditors between $70m and $80m, more than the debts of $23m declared to a West Australian court late last year. ]
[ staff sacked on Friday may be added to the list of creditors, forcing them to wait for the full or partial payment of redundancy entitlements. ]
[ company might have stopped making compulsory employee superannuation payments in mid-November. ]
[ more than $21 million in donations to the magnate’s political party, including a payment of $288,516 less than three weeks ago. ]
I suspect that the workers will not care for Clive’s bleating about how great a citizen he is having gotten rid of the “carbon tax” he refused to pay anyway if they find their getting shafted for their entitlements because of Clive’s spending decisions.
The Oz has gone him before so i’d be a little wary of current accusations, but fwark….if its true he has comprehensively screwed over Townsville and the Anna P’s decision not to loan / guarantee him $35M is looking pretty good at the moment i think.
[Just watched Monty Pythons Meaning of Life(again) on TV.
Imagine if this movie was released now… the “progressive” leftwing dickheads would have a coronary.]
Er … why?
SteelyDan
[Good onya teach, you sound like a real live wire. Let your hair down live a little forget a coma or two or even three, go on you rebel you.]
OK, maybe it at times I am a little pedantic but it stills seems odd to me that coservatives like yourself are so happy to mangle part of our cultural heritage.
BTW, I think you should master the full stop before trying to use commas. 🙂
[Er … why?]
Just because TBA reckons so (based on nothing).
‘Just because TBA reckons so (based on nothing).’
Just about sums up everything TBA says.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
Woolworths’ managerial ineptitude has come home to roost in a tragic way for many.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/retail/woolworths-throws-in-the-towel-on-epic-fail-20160118-gm833r.html
Looks like Clive Palmer’s political fortune has taken a tumble too.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/clive-palmers-political-career-on-the-brink-after-business-meltdown-20160118-gm8a0q.html
Has there been some dodgy accounting at Queensland Nickel?
http://www.smh.com.au/business/yabulu-refinery-revalued-prior-to-qnis-collapse-20160118-gm87os.html
How can a person of moderate means justify this?
http://www.smh.com.au/national/education/parents-fork-out-250000-for-private-sydney-school-fees-20160118-gm8757.html
Tennis administrators go into denial mode while Novak Djokovic spills the beans.
http://www.smh.com.au/sport/tennis/novak-djokovic-opens-up-over-110000-bribe-bid-but-is-unaware-of-match-fixing-at-the-top-level-20160118-gm8htv.html
Let’s hope this does not translate into a societal issue.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/australians-conservative-and-gloomy-about-job-prospects-in-digital-age-report-20160118-gm8h5y.html
Abetz has the gall to talk about factions!
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/eric-abetz-attacks-schemers-and-hacks-in-nsw-liberal-party-20160118-gm809t.html
Tom Switzer writes that Abbott should reflect on the history of Bob Menzies.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/what-tony-abbott-can-learn-from-robert-menzies-20160117-gm7m1d.html
The Royal Melbourne Hospital’s legacy Windows XP system has been struck with a virus with severe effect.
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/royal-melbourne-hospital-attacked-by-damaging-computer-virus-20160118-gm8m3v.html
The greatest mystery of the Essendon saga.
http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/essendon-34-is-this-the-greatest-mystery-of-the-essendon-doping-saga-20160118-gm85li.html
Section 2 . . .
Obama has given a lesson in global diplomacy. Turnbull should have a chat to him about it says Daniel Flitton.
http://www.theage.com.au/comment/obamas-iran-deal-gives-a-global-lesson-in-diplomacy-20160118-gm81wu.html
Bob Ellis writes of Obama’s time in office.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/obamas-open-hands-change,8588
Greg Jericho analyses the economics of the housing market and its financing with his usual detail and rigour.
http://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2016/jan/18/dont-get-too-excited-about-the-cooling-housing-market-the-cost-of-loans-is-skyrocketing
Robert Manne on how Australia’s clash of ideologies is destroying the lives of those in offshore detention.
http://www.theage.com.au/comment/obamas-iran-deal-gives-a-global-lesson-in-diplomacy-20160118-gm81wu.html
And Michelle Grattan is upset that ministers are able to get away with their outrageous slurs. She calls for Turnbull to insist that they issue formal apologies.
https://theconversation.com/malcolm-turnbull-should-have-the-government-apologise-asap-to-save-the-children-over-nauru-fiasco-53297
Alan Austin on how the ABC has plunges to a new low.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/the-abc-plunges-to-a-new-low,8586
Scott Ludlam warns us not to blindly follow US foreign policy.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/foreign-policy-that-blindly-follows-the-us-isnt-in-our-national-interest-20160118-gm85xd.html
Section 3 . . . Cartoon Corner
Cathy Wilcox on Morrison’s confidence.
More from Matt Golding on Essendon.
And from Macca as a couple of Collingwood players send out rather explicit photos and videos of themselves.
http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/ae7872a726296a99490f91fdf37f6619?width=1024&api_key=zw4msefggf9wdvqswdfuqnr5
Jon Kudelka at the tennis.
http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/82ece48c407e5c19af84689b50eb8dce
David Rowe goes to the tennis too.
[Ok I get it I should have know because of the pink square.]
What pink square?
L G H
[Speaking out against Islam is not and example of racism but legitimate criticism of a system of belief.
]
To some extent, I agree with you. However, in most cases “Islam” is being used as code for “people of Middle Eastern appearance”, probably purely to avoid the charge of racism.
There are many ‘styles’ of Islam across the world (just as there are many styles of Christianity). The focus of attack, however, is purely against the ‘style’ adopted in the Middle East, and is part of the ongoing effort to denigrate those people (i.e. a race), using their religion as a tool.
I would point out, too, that Jews weren’t a race either. They were a people of very mixed blood (though a common origin) who followed a particular religion.
In both cases, however, attacks on their religion – because it made them ‘different’ from us and people who are different are, by definition, wrong – were used to stir up hatred, and this hatred was used to fuel wars.
Anyone who falls for the “Look! A Muslim! Evil!” schtick is doing the work of the warmongers. Given that so many of them prattle on about how they’re independent thinkers who are resisting the group think, there’s a pathetic kind of irony in that.
Good Morning All,
I’ve just had a listen to a good part of Turnbull’s 1 hour (!) speech to The American Strategic Policy Institute and I think I can sum it up in the Churchillian/Menzian terms so beloved of our Baby Boomer Liberal PMs:
‘We will fight them (IS) in Cyberspace!
We will fight them with our Social Media accounts!
We will mock them on Twitter and Facebook so quick their eyes will bleed!’
😀
Oh yeah, and he got an ‘Agile’ in there. Groan. Even Marius Benson on Newsradio, who often gives Liberal PMs the benefit of the doubt and a ready apologia, said that Turnbull seemed to be going over ground with which we are all familiar here in Australia, but it was a new audience so…
Plus I noticed, as I listened, that Turnbull was elongating his As as he spoke and dropping into an American drawl. Must have felt like being home in Goldman SachsLand I guess. 🙂
zoomster @ 1623,
‘ Anyone who falls for the “Look! A Muslim! Evil!” schtick is doing the work of the warmongers.’
Which is also what Turnbull was at pains to stress in his speech. Support Moderate Muslims, fight the Extremists.
I wonder how SteelyDan and TBA will cope with their leader saying that!
Anyway, zoomster, I think you can agree that it’s nice to see the Liberal Party finally get on board with the Labor Party by advocating respect for moderate Muslims. Like Ed Husic as the most obvious example of a now MP who was vilified by them relentlessly in his quest to get into parliament as our first Muslim MP. 🙂
…I should also add, of course, that targetting someone (or a group of people) purely because they are followers of a certain religion is bigotry, and of the same class as racism. It’s just we don’t seem to have a word for it, so ‘racism’ is the one we reach for.
While I’m at it. (Total blog domination feels good! Or lonely, I can’t decide which. 😉 )
Cool C@t Air Con Fund Update.
I finally bought the Air Conditioner yesterday! Now I am just waiting 7-10 days for the Installer to come along and put it in.
Happy Days! 😀
C@t
but surely that’s on the same level as being chuffed we have a PM who is capable of tying his own shoe laces? That our national leader seeks to unite us rather than divide us should be a given.
I am disturbed at the alacrity with which people on social media accuse each other of ‘racism’, which seems to be the fashionable accusation now.
Former federal Liberal leader John Hewson was among those to slam Mrs Bishop’s controversial decision to run again.
“You’ll probably have to carry her out in a box,” he said.
“She doesn’t think she’s done anything wrong, she doesn’t see that she’s been totally discredited or [will] probably go down in history as a poor minister and the most biased speaker of all time.”
Former Victorian premier Jeff Kennett said he believed it was time for Mrs Bishop to leave Parliament.
“She brought great discredit to herself, she brought great discredit to the Government, she brought greater discredit to her leader who installed her in the speakership and put her own interests before his or party or perhaps even the community, which to me was an indication that the hourglass has run out,” he said
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-01-19/bronwyn-bishop-to-nominate-for-pre-selection-in-nsw/7097090
Glowing endorsements if ever I heard any 🙂
Tom.
zoomster @ 1629,
‘ but surely that’s on the same level as being chuffed we have a PM who is capable of tying his own shoe laces? That our national leader seeks to unite us rather than divide us should be a given.’
And which is the secret of Mal’s success. He’s not Tony Abbott!
What is Tom Switzer hinting at? Looks like he is advocating Abbott start a new party.
[Widely dismissed as yesterday’s man, Menzies went to the backbench, nursed his bruises, learnt from his mistakes and fashioned a centre-right party from bitter sectional interests. By decade’s end, he returned to power – and won the next six elections.]
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/comment/what-tony-abbott-can-learn-from-robert-menzies-20160117-gm7m1d.html#ixzz3xdHGMq3S
Follow us: @smh on Twitter | sydneymorningherald on Facebook
Look, I live in the next seat up the coast from Bronwyn Bishop’s and let me tell you, the majority of the electors there, and here, and I am speaking from personal experience fighting a campaign against the Liberal Party here, I would confidently be able to say that they would vote for the Drover’s Dog if you put a blue rinse in it’s fur! They vote for the Liberal Party.
It is also the case that I have read that Bronwyn Bishop is much loved by the old fogies in her Liberal branches and has the numbers tied up there tighter than a goldfish’s bum. In the wider community, not so much, they just vote Liberal. They’ll hold their noses, or wear some very expensive perfume, when they go to vote this year if Bronwyn is still the Liberal candidate but they will still vote Liberal. They’ll close their eyes and think of Malcolm as they vote for Bronwyn. 😀
If you listen to Turnbull’s speeches they are all nearly identical. Just interspersed with varying amounts of waffle.
lizzie
[I am disturbed at the alacrity with which people on social media accuse each other of ‘racism’, which seems to be the fashionable accusation now.]
Me too. We have a ‘Chicken Little’ commenter on here that does this.
ruawake @ 1633,
I think the problem with Switzer’s thesis and comparison of Menzies with Abbott can be found in this sentence:
‘ went to the backbench, nursed his bruises, learnt from his mistakes and fashioned a centre-right party from bitter sectional interests.’
Abbott is functionally unable to learn from his mistakes and is no more capable of crafting a ‘Centre Right party’ now as he was when he was Opposition Leader and then Prime Minister. Given reign to his innate urges he would fashion a party of the Hansonist Right. Don’t know how popular that would be.
rua
[If you listen to Turnbull’s speeches they are all nearly identical.]
No matter what the subject is something is always ‘agile’.
[Menzies went to the backbench, nursed his bruises, learnt from his mistakes ]
And that right there is why Abbott is no Menzies!
Good morning by the way 🙂
C@tmomma
If Switzer thinks Abbott can do a Menzies then he’s as deluded as the Monkey Pod gang.
Morning all
[Josh Taylor
Josh Taylor – Verified account @joshgnosis
Bronwyn Bishop, Philip Ruddock and Bill Heffernan face being blasted out of parliament in ugly preselection battles. http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/party-elders-face-axe-as-liberals-push-for-change/news-story/ca512f8a54bdfe398f6ceb32939662ba …]
victoria
From your link. A sign of Mal’s “authority” within the party. So sad .
[……undermining Malcolm Turnbull’s push for stability in the lead-up to the election………With up to half a dozen sitting MPs facing a preselection challenge it appears the Prime Minister’s move to protect sitting members from being ousted has been disregarded.]
[Nick Ross @NickRossTech · 22m22 minutes ago
@randlight @smh I am in contact actually. Can’t really blame them for not going huge on what’s technically social media hearsay at the mo.]
poroti
But Malcolm is the messiah, and more importantly ….agile……
[Leroy
Leroy – @Leroy_Lynch
Federal Liberal MP Melissa Price urges cutting back Sunday and public holiday penalty rates http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/jan/19/federal-liberal-mp-urges-cutting-back-sunday-and-public-holiday-penalty-rates …
The Guardian
The Guardian]
poroti
Protecting some of the long-lasting dinosaurs does not support ‘intelligent agility’, but protects his bum from being bitten by the monkeypods.
lizzie
Will be interesting to see if and when the msm report the Nick Ross story
victoria
I just saw a twitter exchange from 2012 between Mal and Ross and a few others, in which Mal is defending his Fraudband. He was adamant that it would be adequate for all possible needs.
Why should non performing MPs be protected from pre selection challenges just because they’re sitting MPs? BBishop and many like her have no chance of returning to the ministry so they may as well be switched out for someone who’s more talented and with greater passion.