I have published a new seat of detailed state breakdowns from BludgerTrack, which points to next to no regional variation in the shift to the Coalition on Malcolm Turnbull’s watch, with the possible exception of it being particularly pronounced in Victoria.
Essential Research will resume its publication of weekly federal polling numbers next week – in the meantime, it has treated us to state voting intention results. These are aggregated from Essential’s polling from October through to December, with samples ranging from 797 in South Australia to 3205 in New South Wales, and follow on from a recent state polling onslaught from Newspoll, which you can read all about in the entries below this one. Essential’s results in New South Wales and Victoria aligned very closely with Newspoll, with the Coalition leading 56-44 in the former and Labor leading 53-47 in the latter. However, Labor was credited with a 54-46 lead in South Australia, compared with 51-49 in Newspoll, but was level with the Liberal National Party in Queensland, where Newspoll had Labor leading 52-48. The biggest disrepancy was from Western Australia, where Newspoll had Labor surging to a lead of 53-47, but Essential has the Liberal-National government with its nose in front, by 51-49. For more on the situation in Western Australia, I had a paywalled article in Crikey on Tuesday.
In preselection news, the finalisation of the redistribution process, together with the determination of an increasingly ascendant moderate faction to flex its muscles, is making life extremely interesting for the Liberal Party in New South Wales (as detailed in another of my paywalled articles in Crikey). As well as the threat posed to factional conservative Craig Kelly in Hughes, which was covered here last week, the following brush fires are breaking out, or threatening to:
• Most contentiously, moderates are talking up the prospect that Hume MP Angus Taylor will come under challenge from Russell Matheson, member for the neighbouring seat of Macarthur. The redistribution will transfer the Sydney fringe centre of Camden from Macarthur to Hume, and push Macarthur northwards into Labor-voting suburbs, cutting its margin from 11.3% to 3.3%. Camden is a power base of a local faction identified as the “southern cartel”, which includes Matheson and Wollondilly MP Jai Rowell. It had earlier been part of the Right, but recently shifted allegiance to the moderates, and its presence with Hume has weakened Taylor’s position, despite him having a considerably greater reputation as a rising talent than Matheson. There were suggestions that Taylor might react to such a challenge by joining the Nationals, but he rejected the notion yesterday. Even before talk of a challenge, Taylor had expressed his displeasure with the redistribution, which makes the electorate considerably less rural in character.
• Another member in the moderates’ sights is Concetta Fierravanti-Wells, a Senator and ideological warrior of the Right. Sarah Martin of The Australian reports that the moderates are “absolutely” confident they could see Fierravanti-Wells make way for Richard Shields, “a former deputy state director and head of government relations for the Insurance Council of Australia”.
• Should she choose not to retire, Bronwyn Bishop is set to face a challenge in Mackellar from Jason Falinski, a long-standing moderate operative who has worked for John Hewson and Malcolm Turnbull, and been state president of the Australian Republican Movement. However, Sarah Martin’s report in The Australian says state upper house MP Natasha McLaren-Jones might be another challenger, which is a bit hard to process given that her husband, Damien Jones, is Bishop’s chief-of-staff and has sometimes been mentioned as her favoured successor. Another potential candidate is said to be Jim Longley, who held the state seat of Pittwater from 1986 to 1996, and challenged Bishop for preselection unsuccessfully before the 2013 election.
• Also likely to face preselection challenges if they don’t retire are Philip Ruddock, in Berowra, and Senator Bill Heffernan. Sarah Martin reports that Heffernan is under pressure to make way for Hollie Hughes, the party’s country vice-president. Tony Abbott, on the other hand, is expected to recontest Warringah.
• Gilmore MP Ann Sudmalis faces a challenge from Grant Schultz, son of former Hume MP Alby Schultz, but is “expected to survive”.
Meanwhile, south of the border:
• Royce Millar of The Age reports on a big field of potential contestants for Liberal preselection in the south-eastern Melbourne seat of Dunkley, to be vacated at the election with the retirement of Bruce Billson. Included are Paul Peulich, mayor of Kingston and son of veteran state MP Inga Peulich; Donna Bauer, who held the marginal bayside seat of Carrum from 2010 to 2014; Peter Angelico, founder of Dandenong steel bending company Kazed; Nathan Hersey, a member of Billson’s staff; Theo Zographos, a Monash councillor; Matt Berry, a former staffer to troublesome state Frankston MP Geoff Shaw; and Chris Crewther, who ran for the Nationals-held seat of Mallee in 2013 and now runs a consultancy in Frankston.
• The Victorian Liberal Party is sorting out a replacement for Senator Michael Ronaldson, who is quitting politics after being demoted to the back bench by Malcolm Turnbull, along with the order of its Senate ticket. Richard Willingham of Fairfax reports that candidates for the vacancy include James Paterson, deputy director of the Institute of Public Affairs, and Sean Armistead, a manager at Crown Casino and the Liberals’ unsuccessful candidate for Frankston at the 2014 state election. It appears that whoever gets the gig would have to contest a half-Senate election from the dicey number three position, since support is building for Jane Hume, a senior policy adviser for Australian Super who won preselection for the position last year, to be promoted to the top spot. The second position on the ticket is reserved for the Nationals, whose member is Bridget McKenzie.
Gee, and I thought the concept of racism was just a matter of “I don’t like the colour of your skin”.
Interestingly, the attack on those who are “Muslims” lumps together a whole host of ethnic types and the colour of the skin, on the surface of it, does not come into it.
When I hear the Right getting stuck into the “Muslims” ‘cos they ain’t like us, I ponder at the Irish killing themselves even though they are essentially the same people, same colour skin and speak more or less, the same language.
The irony is the graveyards in Ireland – which have sections closed off for Catholics, another for Protestants and a third area for anyone else.
But then, many burial places in Oz copy this.
I wonder if Dog really knows or cares?
[The lack of male family members makes the restrictions even more punishing
Given that 85 to 90 percent of the approximately 130,000 who have died in Syria’s civil war to date are men, said Liesl Gerntholtz, executive director of women’s rights at Human Rights Watch, the restrictions on women’s movement are especially damaging.
“A lot of men are either fighting, away, or have died,” she said. “So now, many households are headed by women who don’t have male relatives around.”
]
Hmmm interesting indeed …
WWP yeah right, gotta do some of your own work. Pick a country any country where refugees are coming from look at there government look at the reasons that it has failed and there you have it.
TBA
[SUSC,
Once again not a truthful series of events.
Gillard was in a sticky situation, with tens of thousands of illegals on the books. New Zealand being the good friends they are made an offer to Gillard… probably feeling sorry for the complete mess she had made… to take 150 of these boatpeople from Australia per year.]
When did I mention the series of events? When was I untruthful about the series of events that I didn’t mention? When was I untruthful about the series of events that were not mentioned prior to you mentioning them to call me untruthful?
[Can anyone translate 1534 into English for me please?]
😆
Something something Liberals are the freakin best! something something Turnbull is the Greatest PM EVAH! something something Labor BAD!
Or something. 😀
Tricot
[I wonder if Dog really knows or cares?]
Speaking of Dog . Iceland have headed in the right direction.
[0.0% of Icelanders 25 years or younger believe God created the world, new poll reveals
Remarkably the poll failed to find young Icelanders who accept the creation story of the Bible. 93.9% of Icelanders younger than 25 believed the world was created in the big bang, 6.1% either had no opinion or thought it had come into existence through some other means and 0.0% believed it had been created by God.]
http://icelandmag.visir.is/article/00-icelanders-25-years-or-younger-believe-god-created-world-new-poll-reveals
@Steelydan/1534
Ahh this is so racism.
“not wanting people to bring in any part of there culture that was a reason for the state they came from failing.”
In my view this is discrimination + racism.
It seems that William and Crikey are refusing to deal with these issues head on.
On a side note look at the meaning behind Iran’s name.
[WWP yeah right, gotta do some of your own work. Pick a country any country where refugees are coming from look at there government look at the reasons that it has failed and there you have it.]
So lets pick Syria … explain how your bizarre theory works with refuges from Syria … you have a brutal dictatorial regime, you have ISIS having a go, you have the yanks and the Russians raising death from the sky …
So a Syrian refugee shows up on your front door, how does this obscure I’m might post like a racist but I’m not because stuff play out at that point? I genuinely don’t understand, the racist stuff was easy to understand, you were deliberately spreading basic racist rubbish. This it isn’t really racist because of culture stuff I’m not getting …
[Ahh this is so racism.
“not wanting people to bring in any part of there culture that was a reason for the state they came from failing.”]
But the Brits “brought” the parts of their culture that was failing when they sent the prison ships to Botany Bay
Hell, the collection plates must be empty in Iceland.
What does a poor Icelandic clergyman have to do for a crust?
Steely
[Racism, the belief that all members of each race possess characteristics, abilities, or qualities specific to that race, especially so as to distinguish it as inferior or superior to another race or races..]
Fair enough, but by your definition, THIS is racist –
[But I will fess up to not wanting people to bring in any part of there culture that was a reason for the state they came from failing. They can come just not the parts of there culture we have taken centuries to overcome and by the way we still have an awful way to go.]
..you are denigrating ‘their’ culture and saying that ours is superior.
Never ever said Syrians can not come, of course they can, just when the get here any parts of there culture that is part of the reason there country failed they can not keep. Bloody love being part of a multicultural society nearly everything I have experienced from other cultures in Australia has been enriching.
PTMD @ 1549: The whole lousy performance by Carleton in East Timor was done over by Media Watch at the time, see http://www.abc.net.au/mediawatch/transcripts/s50030.htm. The contents of the hamper were also widely reported at the time. Tim Fischer, in his very good little book Seven Days in East Timor, having been an eye witness, discussed Carleton’s behaviour at length, and noted at pp. 76-7 that “there was no doubt that Richard Carleton and his crew had put other people’s lives in jeopardy. They had acted irresponsibly and recklessly, as I later said in Parliament.”
I would go further than that. He was asking questions of voters and militia in the town of Liquica, only shortly after the frightful massacre that had happened there, when the militias threw grenades into the church in which pro-independence people had hoped to find safety. (If you ever go there, as I have, you will see the memorial in the church.) It wasn’t just irresponsible and reckless, it was beneath contempt.
FS
The streets of Reykjavik are lined with mendicant creationists.
If I had been at Beaconsfield when Richard Carleton breathed his last, I would have made every reasonable effort to spit on his corpse.
Stooliedan
[ WWP yeah right, gotta do some of your own work. Pick a country any country where refugees are coming from look at there government look at the reasons that it has failed and there you have it. ]
Ok, I’ll play. (a) Anywhere in the Middle East. (b) Because we overthrew their governments who were no longer any use to us and then bombed the crap out of them.
Do I win a prize?
[Never ever said Syrians can not come, of course they can, just when the get here any parts of there culture that is part of the reason there country failed they can not keep. Bloody love being part of a multicultural society nearly everything I have experienced from other cultures in Australia has been enriching.]
The stupid is strong in this post … lets do it
Syria has failed because there was no international support for a people’s uprising against an evil dictatorship. ISIS, the Russians and the yanks and even Australian’s are all keen on bombing Syrians from the sky because just because …
I’m not sure how you identify any parts of any culture that led to either an uprising of people seeking freedom from tyranny (isn’t freedom from Tyranny a core Aussie value?) that you object to. I’m not spotting anything obvious here at all.
So there are lots of elements from other cultures that you love and bring it on, but rising up against and opposing tyranny is something that shouldn’t be allowed in Australia.
Bewildered.
NZ is topical tonight when the New Zealanders looked across the ditch in 1893 and said to our society is superior to yours because all of our society now has the right to vote, they where right
I sort of understand what Steelydan was saying in #1534 however it was a very simplistic expression of a complex issue. The trouble is that there are parts of any culture and/or religion that is uncomfortable for other cultures and/or religions. That’s human diversity.
Bottom line is we have to be tolerant providing people respect the laws of the country they live in. Hell we may even be enriched by accepting something different to what we are used to.
Steelydan
Posted Monday, January 18, 2016 at 10:38 pm | Permalink
[Never ever said Syrians can not come, of course they can, just when the get here any parts of there culture that is part of the reason there country failed…]
So they can’t keep the part where the West bombed them and destroyed their homes.
[Bottom line is we have to be tolerant providing people respect the laws of the country they live in. Hell we may even be enriched by accepting something different to what we are used to.]
Good point David, although it pains me to admit it, we have had discussions here before, and not that long ago, that reinforced the basic rule that our laws set the framework for the ‘end’ of cultural tolerance. If you are here you need to obey the laws, if you are happy to obey the laws your culture enriches us.
Syria you mean the country that has never been a democracy where Islamic jurisprudence is the main source of legislation and peoples law
Now why would the population of Iraq be utterly traumatised and a tad crazy after a quarter of a century of….
[Watch America’s last 4 presidents each announce that they’re bombing Iraq ]
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=etFX8rLvxoo
Tom Switzer with more nutty comparisons of Mr Abbott and Sir Robert Menzies.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/what-tony-abbott-can-learn-from-robert-menzies-20160117-gm7m1d.html
The big difference between the two is the Menzies was able to acknowledge his mistakes and learn from experience. Mr Abbott proved to be totally, constitutionally, incapable of learning from his mistakes.
When ‘Liberals’ talk about ‘Boats’, the response should be a sort of ‘reverse Abbott’, who when asked about pretty much any topic replied ‘We stopped the boats’.
So an LNP spiv turns the conversation to ‘Boats’. Response: what are your plans for Medicare? Why are you defunding health abd education? Why are you spending billions on a ‘Direct Inaction’ plan to address a problem you don’t believe exists? What didn’t you fix the ‘Budget Emergency’? When will you stop lying? Why did you elect a thuggish imbecile like Abbott as your leader? Do you believe that Australian employees earn too much money? Why dies a CEO pay a lower tax rate than the person who cleans his home or his office? Why do you want to double University fees? Why do you want people to keep working till they’re 70? Why, in spite of banging on about ‘growth and jobs’, you can’t provide either? Why did you nobble the NBN? Why do you want to nobblecIndustry Super?
The list goes on…
Steelydan
[ where Islamic jurisprudence is the main source of legislation and peoples law]
Like wot was not the case before we invaded ?
Steelydan@1573
It was only created after WWI and the collapse of the Ottoman Empire and was for most of the time until 1946 under a French mandate.
Not a lot of time to establish democracy.
BORDER FORCE MEDALS
[Syria you mean the country that has never been a democracy where Islamic jurisprudence is the main source of legislation and peoples law]
Islamic jurisprudence … hmmm want to rethink that and perhaps try again …
1576
Yes the list goes on and everybody knows why we are in the financial mess. It’s called Labors debt and deficit. The polls will not change as it is obvious to all who aren’t party members and fanatics.
The West owes a huge cultural debt to Islam. It was Arab scholars who preserved most of the works of the Greek and Roman writers which we used as building blocks of our culture but had lost access to during the Dark Ages.
Indeed, the ideas which took us out of the Dark Ages came from the contact with Islamic countries during the Crusades – we didn’t just get useful items such as silk, sugar and coffee, we also got chemistry, algebra, astronomy and mathematics. (If we’d paid more attention to their medicine, a lot of deaths would have been avoided..)
Joe Hockey temping for Hollande ?
[French president declares economic emergency]
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11575851
Steve777
Posted Monday, January 18, 2016 at 10:58 pm | Permalink
When ‘Liberals’ talk about ‘Boats’, the response should be a sort of ‘reverse Abbott’, who when asked about pretty much any topic replied ‘We stopped the boats’.
[So an LNP spiv turns the conversation to ‘Boats’. Response: what are your plans for Medicare? Why are you defunding health abd education? Why are you…..]
Pretty much one answer for all the questions.
“Because it will favour our wealthy mates, our corporate owners and puppet masters.”
Where does Senator Heffalump get off calling an Italo-Australian lawyer a wog?
If you want to analyse the reason why master race cretins like Steelydan and TBA think their addle headed bigotry is acceptable, look no further than their leaders.
Oh, and the word Iran translates as “the land of the Aryans”. You know, the race that Hitler’s Germany claimed as being their own.
Davidwh these countries have long documented histories and there is much from there cultures that we have already learnt from and taken, you only have to look at the Islamic culture in the middle ages, we where in the dark ages, many of Renaissance ideas where Islamic in origin, good ideas the enrich our culture of course. parts that caused there country to fail no.
[The period after Bashar al-Assad’s election in the summer of 2000 saw new hopes of reform and was dubbed the Damascus Spring. The period was characterized by the emergence of numerous political forums or salons where groups of like-minded people met in private houses to debate political and social issues. The phenomenon of salons spread rapidly in Damascus and to a lesser extent in other cities. Political activists, such as Riad Seif, Haitham al-Maleh, Kamal al-Labwani, Riyad al-Turk, and Aref Dalila were important in mobilizing the movement.[37] The most famous of the forums were the Riad Seif Forum and the Jamal al-Atassi Forum. Pro-democracy activists mobilized around a number of political demands, expressed in the “Manifesto of the 99”. Assad ordered the release of some 600 political prisoners in November 2000. The outlawed Muslim Brotherhood resumed its political activity. In May 2001 Pope John Paul II paid a historic visit to Syria.]
Ahhh thinking for themselves … no wonder RW Aussies don’t want people from Syria here …
Why would;
Racing and Wagering Western Australia
Racing NSW
Racing Queensland
want access to my metadata?????
Agree with you Zoomster, and you articulated it better than I did.
I live in WA, why would;
Roads and Maritime Service NSW
Royal Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals (Victoria)
State Revenue Office (Victoria)
Taxi Services Commission (Victoria)
Victorian WorkSafe Authority
want access to my metadata?
To check out your money laundering activities online?
[Agree with you Zoomster, and you articulated it better than I did.]
Yeah no big surprise … but what about all the stuff you’ve been saying that zoom would laugh at, want to expand on them?
Before I head of to beddy byes WWP has Ross released any of his evidence yet, its only Monday I suppose, never saw anything in the papers didn’t have a huge look I might have missed it. No nothing ok maybe tomorrow.
Zoomster may very well think I am a full on tosser i just agree with his last post.
Is everybody buying a tree to plant under their suburban power line to offset the cost to Government of the Hunt/Turnbull latest initiative to … er …do something for some reason or another?
We have traveled some territory from my original argument and I back everything i said but my original argument is that the Canadian Government has stopped taking men of fighting age in there refuge intake and I believe even on this site there would be people the believe the Canadian model has merit.
[Before I head of to beddy byes WWP has Ross released any of his evidence yet, its only Monday I suppose, never saw anything in the papers didn’t have a huge look I might have missed it. No nothing ok maybe tomorrow.]
Ahhh you keep lying about this. Your whole soft sell troll act needs you to be more careful and smarter than this.
You’ve admitted that all you views on this subject are based on faith, you just don’t / can’t consider facts / circumstances / evidence that contradicts your belief. You posted this admission freely. You really should leave subjects you’ve admitted you know nothing about, and will not accept facts that contradict your beliefs alone. You just look stupider and stupider. And you started from a very low base.
[Zoomster may very well think I am a full on tosser i just agree with his last post.]
zoomster is a woman but I guess it’s the Liberal way to assume that any comment not resembling sewing or baking just has to come from a man.
WeWantPaul
[Ahhh you keep lying about this. Your whole soft sell troll act]
Soft sell or……….
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XZVpR3Pk-r8
Really you think I was being sexist chip on your shoulder much. Ok I get it I should have know because of the pink square.
Thanks for the confirmation WWP no evidence released.