Morgan: 56-44 to Coalition

The first federal poll for the year provides no indication that the New Year break and its attendant political controversies have made much difference to voting intention.

Morgan opens the opinion polling account for 2016 with a result that’s only slightly less good for the government than the thumping lead recorded in its final poll of 2015. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down a point to 47%, Labor is up two to 29%, the Greens are down 1.5% to 13%, and Palmer United are steady on 1%. That pans out to a 56-44 lead to the Coalition on respondent-allocated preferences, down from 57.5-42.5, and a 55.5-44.5 lead on previous election preferences, down from 56-44. The poll was conducted by face-to-face and SMS over the past two weekends from a sample of 2839.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,321 comments on “Morgan: 56-44 to Coalition”

Comments Page 38 of 47
1 37 38 39 47
  1. dtt@1847 I’m well aware of all that – but there is no evidence to date of an Australian Ground Troops operating in Syria and no intention to do so – the Government has been clear in it’s opposition to doing so – and unlike Obama has kept that commitment.

    (and for the pedants – yes there could be Aussie’s on exchange with other Nations SF inside Syria. The Brit SASR has been causing quite some havoc, apparently)

  2. Douglas and Milko
    Bill Hayden once described Bruvver Unsworth as the type of politician who appealed to people who enjoyed pulling the wings off dying butterflies.

  3. Australia’s premier anti-terrorism expert, David Kilcullen, tells us that it is counter-productive to publicise terrorist acts to the max.

    Terrorists want and need free publicity.

    The obvious conclusion is that the Raving Right, the MSM and ISIL feed off each other.

  4. ESJ and TBA:

    Er, you do both realise that there were a not-insigificant number of Labor-leaning posters heavily criticizing both Clements and the NSW ALP’s related actions yesterday, right? Plus several current and former Labor politicians calling for his removal?

    As for why it hasn’t caused quite the same uproar as the Briggs matter, well, one was a federal government minister, the other a behind-the-scenes “faceless man” who nobody had really heard of before yesterday.

  5. bemused

    [I don’t recall it being well known at all at the time.]
    Not well known in the SMH/Australian type press but plenty of other places with articles detailing the people leading various groups. One leader we backed had previously been kidnapped by the CIA and sent to Tripoli for torture due to his Al Qaeda/Jihadi links !!

  6. CT Momma
    It has been alleged that Kaila was involved in the redirection of postal ballot papers (either 20 or 50 there seems some dispute) to the home address of right wing spear carrier and disgraced Auburn councillor Hicham Zraika. Zraika has been suspended and I understand that Kaila’s defence was that she was following standard party practice.

    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/bill-shortens-leadership-ballot-under-scrutiny-after-sam-dastyaris-office-redirected-papers-20150211-13bvlo.html

  7. [Er, you do both realise that there were a not-insigificant number of Labor-leaning posters heavily criticizing both Clements and the NSW ALP’s related actions yesterday, right? Plus several current and former Labor politicians calling for his removal?]

    Mindless right-wing pygmy brained bomb-throwers don’t do inconvenient facts very well at all.

  8. [ As for why it hasn’t caused quite the same uproar as the Briggs matter, well, one was a federal government minister, the other a behind-the-scenes “faceless man” who nobody had really heard of before yesterday. ]

    Asha bursts ESJ’s little bubble of silly confected outrage with a simple and reasonable statement of the blindingly obvious. 🙂

  9. There are countless questions directed to Nick Ross that have been posted on the reddit site.
    Questions that do require an answer. Not sure Ross will be in a position to answer them all.

  10. To add to my @1854, there is pretty much constant, vitriolic (but likely not unjustified) criticism of the NSW ALP from posters here, along with regular calls for a “total cleanout”, while you will rarely, if ever, see anyone defending the NSW branches.

  11. Oops should have posted his statement in above post

    [I am outgoing ABC Technology Editor, Nick Ross. AMA
    submitted 40 minutes ago by teheditor
    My short bio: I’ve been the ABC’s Technology and Games Editor for the past five years. I left yesterday.
    My Proof: https://twitter.com/NickRossTech/status/687782983957364736
    Why am I doing this? a) r/australia (and many others) have been asking me for over two years why I stopped writing about the NBN. I told them I’d answer when I left the ABC.
    b) This brief Twitter exchange hit the front page of reddit, led to press coverage and so many questions from public, journos and pollies that it took me six hours just to go through my Twitter feed.
    c) I’ve documented everything that happened to me for the past three years (as I saw which way things were heading even back then). There’s a strong public interest element.
    d) I don’t want any other ABC journalists or employees to be pressured or put through what I’ve been put through over the past three years.
    e) Ignore all the above, I’m actually just a bitter and disgruntled former employee 😉
    please note There are somethings I can’t say because they go against reddit rules and because they need to go through a media outlet with legal checking first. That will happen after this.]

  12. Hmmm

    [[–]teheditor[S] 4 points 3 minutes ago
    In early March 2013 I was told by a senior ABC manager that ABC Management was expecting the Liberals to win the next election and that Malcolm Turnbull would be in charge of the ABC and that they didn’t want to upset him. From this point on I documented everything.]

  13. Hands up anyone who would be surprised if this was so ? ………..Come on there must be one person 🙂

    [[–]teheditor[S] 4 points 3 minutes ago
    In early March 2013 I was told by a senior ABC manager that ABC Management was expecting the Liberals to win the next election and that Malcolm Turnbull would be in charge of the ABC and that they didn’t want to upset him. From this point on I documented everything.]

  14. The Coalition’s problem at the moment, is that when Turnbull is away, or quiet, there is just no-one to fill the void.

    JBish is treading carefully, with the right wing media still a bit cross at her for knifing Abbott.

    I haven’t heard from ScoMO in a long time – Maybe he thinks that if he stays silent, people will blame our economy crashing on Hockey instead of him. Or maybe the job of treasurer is doesn’t suit him and he longs to back back in counterimmigration.

    There’s been a loss of credibility amongst many of the middle tier and party elders due to sexual harrasment, stealing of diaries, helicopter rides etc.

    The Nationals can’t provide anyone, with a leader who is just dreaming of his first luxury cruise upon retirement, and a replacement leader that no-one takes seriously.

    About the only thing coming from the coalition but not from Turnbull’s mouth is the constant whiteanting from Abbott, Abetz, Bernadi, Andrews.

    I can’t think of a single influential/popular/respected figure in the coalition that is having positive appearances in the media other than the main man himself.

  15. Scott Bales

    [I haven’t heard from ScoMO in a long time]
    He’s camped out at Hillsong praying desperately for divine intervention and the required miracles for this year’s budget. A good chance the budget will see his PM ambitions go KABOOM.

  16. [ABC Management was expecting the Liberals to win the next election and that Malcolm Turnbull would be in charge of the ABC and that they didn’t want to upset him.]

    If the truth hadn’t gone down the gurgler so many times (not just by the ABC) the Liberals might not have won.

    This seems a problem: media outlets make guesses as to the likely outcomes of elections, and then by their action/non-action bring about that very result.

  17. Been looking at that reddit AMA as posted questions start to get answers. Very interesting. MalPM as comms minister dealing with the ABC via his drones needs to be looked into. How long until MalPM has “questions to answer” ??

  18. lizzie
    [ABC Management was expecting the Liberals to win the next election and that Malcolm Turnbull would be in charge of the ABC and that they didn’t want to upset him.]

    I can understand the commercial media doing it but it is outrageous that the ABC took such an approach. How far from what they are meant to be can you get ?

  19. Oakeshott Country @ 1857,
    Now I know that you are trying to tarnish the reputation of Kaila Murnain before she has even taken over from Jaimie Clements. I checked the date on the article you referred me to and it was February 2015. Which is to say that in almost a year no further action has been taken on the matter, no further evidence has been tendered to implicate Kaila in any way, other than to say that all she was doing at that time was what she administratively would do in any similar circumstances for legitimate reasons.

    It is also the case that Hicham Zraika has since been expelled from the NSW Branch of the Labor Party for improper conduct, which says to me that the improper conduct in the ballot matter was all his and had absolutely nothing to do with Kaila Murnain.

    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/business/work/councillor-hicham-zraika-expelled-from-labor-party-over-move-that-saw-salim-mehajer-reelected/news-story/7f2461ebcd29891f045314704d9a308c

    I am thus only able to conclude that the ready reference to these matters by you reflects more on your character, in an adverse sense, than Kaila Murnain’s.

  20. [11.ISIS is in Indonesia and attacking them.

    It would be bloody ugly if there were still hundreds of boats arriving.

    If only 0.01% of Indonesia’s Population support ISIS then there is only 2.5 million ISIS supporters there.
    ]

    Great story on ABC radio last night, PM, where the experts summed up what was most important and that was propaganda battle, and we are losing it badly because people like you and idiotic views of ignorance and hate you preach are exactly what ISIS want. Yeah you and those like you do more to support ISIS than the deranged Monis did in Sydney.

  21. 0.01% of indonesia’s population is 2.5 million.

    0.1% is 25 million.

    1% is 250 million.

    10% is 2.5 billion.

    100% is 25 billion.

    If there are that many people on Earth, we are screwed.

  22. Asha Leu @ 1862,

    ‘ To add to my @1854, there is pretty much constant, vitriolic (but likely not unjustified) criticism of the NSW ALP from posters here, along with regular calls for a “total cleanout”, while you will rarely, if ever, see anyone defending the NSW branches.’

    As you can view today, I am one who constantly has to defend the NSW ALP from the snipers. Which I will continue to do whenever there is a justifiable cause to do so. It’s bad enough having to put up with the drive-bys by avowedly anti-Labor posters but now I have to also keep an eye on what allegedly pro-Labor posters put up here as well it seems.

  23. I am hoping The Saturday Paper, or The Guardian takes on Nick Ross and allows him to keep commenting on the nbn, plus tell his story.

  24. C@tmomma@1879

    Asha Leu @ 1862,

    ‘ To add to my @1854, there is pretty much constant, vitriolic (but likely not unjustified) criticism of the NSW ALP from posters here, along with regular calls for a “total cleanout”, while you will rarely, if ever, see anyone defending the NSW branches.’

    As you can view today, I am one who constantly has to defend the NSW ALP from the snipers. Which I will continue to do whenever there is a justifiable cause to do so. It’s bad enough having to put up with the drive-bys by avowedly anti-Labor posters but now I have to also keep an eye on what allegedly pro-Labor posters put up here as well it seems.

    Better include me on your list of those who have called for intervention and complete reform of the NSW Branch of the ALP.

    I experienced Federal Intervention in the Vic Branch in 1970 and it worked, hence Labor’s subsequent success.

    A much weaker form of intervention took place in NSW at the same time but, as subsequent performance has shown, was a complete failure.

    The seemingly never-ending scandals involving mainly prominent NSW right members speak for themselves.

  25. Well golly gosh Sally Cray went from Truffles’ employee when he was shadow comms+ broadband minister to ABC arse coverer for Truffles’ NBN shemozzle and back again to Truffles employ. You’d think it was planned.

    [Sally joined the Australian Broadcasting Corporation as Head of Corporate Communications at the end of 2010, following five years in the office of The Hon. Malcolm Turnbull MP. ………….most recently as Chief Of Staff during his time as Shadow Minster for Communications and Broadband. ]
    http://www.zoominfo.com/p/Sally-Cray/1755467192

  26. I checked the date on the article you referred me to and it was February 2015. Which is to say that in almost a year no further action has been taken on the matter, no further evidence has been tendered to implicate Kaila in any way, other than to say that all she was doing at that time was what she administratively would do in any similar circumstances for legitimate reasons.

    Right… because if a matter hasn’t been dealt with legally within 11 months that means there is nothing to it. Legal processes are always prompt. Right?

    You’re having a go at Oakeshott for questioning this person’s fitness to be in a leadership role. You think Oakeshott is engaging in fact-free innuendo. Didn’t you recently imply that an ambitious NSW Labor official may have pimped out his girlfriend to bring down a sleazebag who stood in his way?

  27. [Smartphone addiction can have serious health risks for workers aside from the obvious safety hazards of distraction by phone. So much so, that experts have coined a term for the fear of being without your smartphone — it’s called nomophobia (no-mobile-phobia).

    Nomophobia support and rehab groups have popped up in the United States in recent years to help sufferers kick their addiction.

    Online compulsive behaviour in adults and children is becoming such a problem that it will be a topic of discussion at the upcoming Australian and New Zealand Addiction Conference, hosted by the Australian and New Zealand Mental Health Association in May. ]

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2016/01/14/phone-ban-workplace_n_8975828.html?utm_hp_ref=australia

  28. I love this man!

    Just come back from my local hairdresser and she said to me that Paul Keating had her cut his hair yesterday.

    She had no idea who he was and when she asked he said he was former PM.

    Not being a political animal like we all are it took the next customer coming through the door to say “that was Paul Keating”.

    She said he was quietly spoken and I can now say I have had my hair done at the same salon as Paul Keating.

  29. Wow, discrimination even in the USA:

    Greg Jericho ‏@GrogsGamut 11s12 seconds ago

    Actual question on whether Hillary is “an enabler of sexual misconduct” #GOPDebate

  30. C@TMomma and OC

    Regarding Kaila Murnain, I have had things to do with her in a context entirely unrelated to the ALP, and was not aware of her links to the ALP at the time.

    She is smart and articulate.

    As far as the ALP goes, she opposed attempts to get some non- factionally aligned members as SEC delegates to state conference. However, that was when KKK was still premier, so quite a while ago, but it did not endear her to our branch. I have heard no rumours of corruption on her part, and would be inclined to give her the benefit of the doubt, but make sure there is no skeletons in her closet – NSW Labor just cannot afford it.

  31. MTBW@1887

    I love this man!

    Just come back from my local hairdresser and she said to me that Paul Keating had her cut his hair yesterday.

    She had no idea who he was and when she asked he said he was former PM.

    Not being a political animal like we all are it took the next customer coming through the door to say “that was Paul Keating”.

    She said he was quietly spoken and I can now say I have had my hair done at the same salon as Paul Keating.

    So what would Paul Keating be doing out your way?

    Surely he doesn’t travel out from his inner east suburb to yours just for a haircut?

  32. I guess we will see how Kaila Murnain goes and she may well be the breath of fresh air that Sussex St needs.
    Personally I think the public perception of corruption is so strong and so enduring that the party would be better served by looking outside the current officers.
    Given the aims of the conservatives and their media it is quite possible that the alleged dodginess of Shorten’s election will be revisited and Sussex St will be in the frame again

  33. Oakeshott Country@1892

    I guess we will see how Kaila Murnain goes and she may well be the breath of fresh air that Sussex St needs.
    Personally I think the public perception of corruption is so strong and so enduring that the party would be better served by looking outside the current officers.
    Given the aims of the conservatives and their media it is quite possible that the alleged dodginess of Shorten’s election will be revisited and Sussex St will be in the frame again

    Tommy Burns and Mick Young did a great job running the Victorian branch while it was reformed.

    Do we have any current equivalents of them?

  34. Labor should be demanding a senate inquiry asap in light of what Nick Ross has disclosed

    [TWO. Sally Cray was hired from Malcolm Turnbull’s office as the Head of ABC’s Corporate Communications. Shortly after the election she returned to her old job as his Chief Policy Advisor. I think she was replaced by people from The Australia’s media section.
    I recently received the emails that Cray received and sent back to The Australian. This link contains commentary from another ABC entity regarding my subsequent Comcare claim and the original bullshit article from Page 3 of the Australian (where only my name is correct) http://imgur.com/FbG1LyV&JbOR5a8
    They really stood up for me didn’t they? And apparently I was officially “reminded of ABC Editorial policies” because they told me via The Australian! I don’t want any other ABC employee to be subject to that and so I’m drawing attention to it. Also, look what happens when instead of replying “No” to the question of “Was he disciplined” you skip round it. The commentary then goes on to say that the ABC has no influence over what’s written in other media. Orly?]

  35. zoidlord

    [
    Netflix is cracking down on VPNs.

    Time to stop using their service]
    Another reason to give them the flick.
    [Netflix Founder Drops $100 Million to Join Billionaire Crusade to Privatize Our Public Schools

    …..he was creating a $100 million foundation to fund education, which mostly means bankrolling the charter school industry.]
    http://www.alternet.org/education/netflix-founder-drops-100-join-billionaire-crusade-privatize-our-public-schools

  36. [Labor should be demanding a senate inquiry asap in light of what Nick Ross has disclosed]

    Absolutely – lets put paid to this bollocks claim the ABC is ‘left’ once and for all.Its been pro-COALition for several years.
    Remember John Menadue, former News LTD exec and other media credentials, complaining about ABC pro COALition bias in the 2010 election, giving Chris Uhlman special mention?
    That went all quiet didn’t it?
    This current revelation should not be treated the same.

  37. [Sally joined the Australian Broadcasting Corporation as Head of Corporate Communications at the end of 2010, following five years in the office of The Hon. Malcolm Turnbull MP. ………….most recently as Chief Of Staff during his time as Shadow Minster for Communications and Broadband.]

    How will Malcolm broach that conflict of interest.

  38. There is no NBN story, that is why the ABC never went with it. The ABC not going with a story because the Libs will win the next election and Turnbull would be there boss, what hogwash what is it about the left and conspiracies. And by the way my town just got the NBN and it may make a huge difference to businesses and teaching centres which get fibre to the node anyway but for me there is a fraction of a difference in speed in the evening and it was slightly more expensive. I hope this is not going to be like the education revolution.

  39. shea mcduff

    Agree with you. This should not be left to slide.

    I havent seen anything reported from team Labor about it. Would like to know if they have a view about an inquiry. i am not surprised and I highly suspected interference, but this has still made me very cross. Turnbull is a frickin disgrace. he is no better than Abbott. Could even be worse and that is saying something

Comments Page 38 of 47
1 37 38 39 47

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *