Morgan: 56-44 to Coalition

The first federal poll for the year provides no indication that the New Year break and its attendant political controversies have made much difference to voting intention.

Morgan opens the opinion polling account for 2016 with a result that’s only slightly less good for the government than the thumping lead recorded in its final poll of 2015. On the primary vote, the Coalition is down a point to 47%, Labor is up two to 29%, the Greens are down 1.5% to 13%, and Palmer United are steady on 1%. That pans out to a 56-44 lead to the Coalition on respondent-allocated preferences, down from 57.5-42.5, and a 55.5-44.5 lead on previous election preferences, down from 56-44. The poll was conducted by face-to-face and SMS over the past two weekends from a sample of 2839.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,321 comments on “Morgan: 56-44 to Coalition”

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  1. Bemused
    Burns was from Queensland and Young from SA which may explain their success in reforming Victoria. It certainly goes with my idea that an outsider is needed..
    You maybe able to come through the ranks of Sussex St without becoming corrupt but avoiding the public perception of corruption is another thing.

  2. Oakeshott Country@1901

    Bemused
    Burns was from Queensland and Young from SA which may explain their success in reforming Victoria. It certainly goes with my idea that an outsider is needed..
    You maybe able to come through the ranks of Sussex St without becoming corrupt but avoiding the public perception of corruption is another thing.

    Couldn’t agree more.

    But Tommy and Mick were great characters and handled everything with aplomb, including some pretty fiery meetings. They were just perfect for the job.

  3. [50.There is no NBN story, that is why the ABC never went with it.]

    Great entry in the dumbest right wing nutter category … Extra points and bonus points for going on to point out fraudband is barely broadband at all … Contrasting a failed Liberal programme with a hugely successful Labor program all but guarantees you the title! Outstanding stupidity in the face of overwhelming facts! Bravo!

  4. @Steelydan/1899

    You are very wrong there considering most of NBN Management is former Telstra management, and Telstra has the contracts to maintain the network.

    “but for me there is a fraction of a difference in speed in the evening and it was slightly more expensive”

    What you are experiencing is not the fault of the NBN.

    This is why so many ignorant people don’t understand how Networks and Internet work.

  5. Steelydan just another ignorant/biased person, of which I had similar argument on twitter yesterday.

    Of which the person argument similar to what Steelydan said.

    Then started off how it wouldn’t benefit him/her, then said it cost more than Fraudband etc, and is still in denile as of yesterday.

    This is the defense of liberal losers, since the story broke by Nick Ross.

  6. Guy Rundle writes astutely about Victorian Labor:

    Once election was achieved, it was back to business as usual, of course. The Andrews government has gone down the same path both the Bligh and Iemma governments went — thinking that sneaky privatisations or long-term private leasing can be used to pay for election promises and pay down deficits. Because it worked so well for Anna and Morris. Any coincidence that the Andrews government’s numbers have fallen just after the Port of Melbourne privatisation was announced? They never learn, the bright boys in the ALP backroom. And they never learn because, whatever their class background, deep down they are elitists filled with contempt for average citizens, and their base.

    http://www.crikey.com.au/2016/01/15/rundle-welcome-to-richos-chinese-restaurant/

  7. Nicholas

    Mr Rundle was fearsomely wrong about SYRIZA.

    This does not make him wrong about Victorian Labor but does give room for pause.

  8. [And they never learn because, whatever their class background, deep down they are elitists filled with contempt for average citizens, and their base.]

    Not surprising you like it Nicky it indulges in the kind of nasty characterisation that shows more about the writer than the victim of the abuse that you so often indulge in. It is also the kind of rubbish that strips away at the true value in the story. A good article about the folly of privatisation completely wasted with an unnecessary (even if true) indulgence.

    While the speculative link between polling and the privatisation is laughably week without other evidence, as a firm opponent of most privatisation I find it incredibly disappointing that it is self negating with childish petulance.

  9. I’ve reassessed, I was showing my bias in concluding there was actually a real anti-privatisation article under the abuse and sarcasm there. There isn’t.

  10. Jeeze this Nick Ross thing is a stinking pile of manure. Hope there’s some serious blow back heading Turnbull’s way.

  11. [Schadenfreude George ‏@GeorgeBludger · 24m24 minutes ago
    This #NBN censorship thing is huge. If we can’t have genuine critical discourse on massive policy directions, then we’re fucked as a country]

  12. lizzie

    It is huge in my view too. It is a massive NBN ABC Turmbull/censorship scandal. It has to go beyond social media. Labor/Green MPs, where are you?

  13. Wow:

    [–]teheditor[S] 1 point just now

    So, here goes… after I was initially told about management expecting the Libs to win the election etc, I recorded subsequent meetings. I’ve literally got them on tape saying “the NBN is dead and so there’s no point in making a fuss” four months before the election and using that as an excuse not to publish the copper article. I’m interested in what Stephen Conroy has to say on that.

    And yes… I also felt management wasn’t stupid enough to incriminate itself in writing (they have since), but this is my core proof and like you said, where would I be without it? I had to protect myself in case I was later railroaded.

    Lucky I did.

    I want that tape!

  14. [ If we can’t have genuine critical discourse on massive policy directions, ]

    Looking at the comments there and on Whirlpool that seems to be at the heart of it, and the ABC is taking a massive hit to reputation.

    Ross’s articles were analysis based with conclusions as to how the Coalition were wrong on the NBN based on facts, not spin. FFS its been obvious for years to anyone with even a passing last name association with physics and / or economics that the Coalition policy on NBN was and is bollocks and lies and the Coalition know it.

    And the bullshit is based on two things. Keep the donors happy, and differentiate from the ALP even when they are right. Infrastructure and the Public Good mean nothing to these people.

    Anyhow, the accusations are out there. They go straight to MalPM’s office and the highest levels of the ABC. If its found that the ABC has been colluding with the Libs both while they were in opposition and govt then it needs to be investigated.

    Will be interesting if Ludlam picks up this one..Senate Inquiry??

  15. Nicholas @ 1887,

    ‘Didn’t you recently imply that an ambitious NSW Labor official may have pimped out his girlfriend to bring down a sleazebag who stood in his way?’

    No.

  16. bemused @ 1882,

    ‘ Better include me on your list of those who have called for intervention and complete reform of the NSW Branch of the ALP.’

    I wouldn’t go there before the federal election, but after it, IF things have not demonstrably improved under Kaila Murnain’s stewardship then there might be a case for it. I’d be keeping my eyes on what happens to Labor Right factional powerbroker, Noreen Hay, as my guidepost to what direction things were going in.

  17. [Looking at the comments there and on Whirlpool that seems to be at the heart of it, and the ABC is taking a massive hit to reputation.]

    They might as well cancel media watch now it has less credibility than Abbott.

  18. Douglas & Milko

    [I think the media are going to duck this one.]

    I think you’re right.

    Do they have a conflict of interest? Perhaps it’s must protect Malcolm & nobble NBN at all costs.

  19. Douglas and Milko @ 1890,

    ‘ As far as the ALP goes, she opposed attempts to get some non- factionally aligned members as SEC delegates to state conference.’

    Um, Kaila Murnain, or even if it were JC himself, if a faction convener in the ALP, then their job is to get as many of their team into delegate positions as possible and to fight their corner. 🙂

  20. A sample of what the Canberra Press Gallery thinks it can get away with

    James_Jeffrey: Here we go… https://t.co/pEMF1eGXEA

    As I pointed out in my reply to this News LImited were not so shy about press freedom when Conroy was on about regulation.

  21. [Ex-ABC editor says he was gagged about writing on NBN to not upset Malcolm Turnbull]

    Hmm. Can’t really seeing this blowing up as a political scandal, (FibreGate? RossGate?) but it might make a nice stick for Labor and The Greens to beat Malcolm’s ‘innovative and agile’ during the election campaign.

  22. [ I think the media are going to duck this one.

    I think you’re right. ]

    Maybe, they may not be able to avoid it though. I think its the kind of thing that should be looked at, if no-where else, in senate estimates. ABC basically working as the propaganda arm of the Libs??? Ross seems to have quite a bit of documentary evidence available. Early days and much worthless opinion flying around, but compelling people to speak to senators and answer to or refute this would be interesting and most likely damaging for Turnbull.

  23. Steelydan @ 1899,

    ‘And by the way my town just got the NBN and it may make a huge difference to businesses and teaching centres which get fibre to the node anyway but for me there is a fraction of a difference in speed in the evening and it was slightly more expensive.’

    *cough* FTTN is SUPPOSED to be only marginally faster than ADSL2+. If that’s all you got then you are proving the point of those who want the real NBN, which is FTTP and a LOT faster than Fraudband.

  24. C@tmomma@1924

    bemused @ 1882,

    ‘ Better include me on your list of those who have called for intervention and complete reform of the NSW Branch of the ALP.’

    I wouldn’t go there before the federal election, but after it, IF things have not demonstrably improved under Kaila Murnain’s stewardship then there might be a case for it. I’d be keeping my eyes on what happens to Labor Right factional powerbroker, Noreen Hay, as my guidepost to what direction things were going in.

    The old ‘now is not the right time’ excuse that I have been hearing for so long.

    I will take your advice re Ms Hay who seems to have had more lives than the 9 allocated to cats.

  25. I will give $100 to charity if there is anything in this story, the ABC to scared to run a story and gagging journalists to appease the Liberal party, please… get a grip.

  26. Nicholas @ 1908,
    That would be Guy Rundle, whose standards have slipped so far, possibly due to a brain constantly clouded by alcohol, that he is now reduced to openly shilling for The Greens in Crikey.

    Now, let me see, the Port of Melbourne Privatisation. Would that be this sneaky privatisation?

    ‘ The Andrews Government is preparing to sell the long-term lease of the port to raise an estimated $6 billion for state coffers.

    The money would be used to remove 50 dangerous level crossings and fulfil one of Labor’s key election promises.’

    And if this were true:

    ‘ Any coincidence that the Andrews government’s numbers have fallen just after the Port of Melbourne privatisation was announced?’

    Then Andrews’ numbers would have fallen BEFORE the election and they wouldn’t have won!

    Nicholas, do try harder.

  27. I am wondering too

    [Schadenfreude George – ‏@GeorgeBludger

    Anyone from the ALP across the ABC/Malcolm/Ross/#NBN fiasco? Anyone? Is this thing on?]

  28. bemused @ 1934,

    ‘ The old ‘now is not the right time’ excuse that I have been hearing for so long.’

    OK, give me a good reason why just before a federal election is the right time for an intervention in a State Branch? I’m really interested to hear the rational explanation for that!

  29. Steelydan – The Leftist Conspiracy Theory Hive Minds are a spectacle to behold.

    I actually wonder of William is running this blog as a social science experiment that captures the Leftist Delusions as some sort of categorised new psychotic pathology. He could end up with a Double Doctorate in Politics and Psychology.

  30. I must have imagined all the anti-ABC/SBS stuff from the Conservative side of politics based on the programming, editorials and reporting on the ABC and SBS.

    Given the employees of the ABC are about 4 times more likely to be Greens Voters than the Australian Population, the vast majority are ALP Voters and very few are LNP aligned (even all the ABC Employee/Politician couples are all with ALP members – sort of makes this claim about NBN coverups and only giving pro-LNP coverage just a tincy unbelievable.

    Name one ABC/SBS Producer who is openly conservative?

    Has there ever been a QandA Panel that has three conservatives on it?

    Name one Political Reporter or Opinion Presenter who is openly conservative?

  31. A viable option

    [Matthew Rimmer
    Matthew Rimmer – ‏@DrRimmer

    No doubt @NickRossTech would be better off appearing before a Parliamentary committee to address these issues under privilege. #NBN]

  32. Crank

    Calling conspiracy does not erase the legitimate questions raised by the allegations of Ross.

    We need answers not platitudes. This is about freedom of the press.

  33. Compact Crank,
    Do your own research to prove what you are asserting is actually true. I am not going off on a Gish Gallop with you. Until you can prove your assertions with verifiable facts then we must only presume that what you are spouting is BS. 🙂

  34. CC, 1944

    The Q&A episode on the 17th of August, 2015 had two progressives, Sam Dastyari and Richard Di Natale, against three conservatives, Brendan O’Neill, Kelly O’Dwyer and Katy Faust

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