New year’s news snippets

Some festive season preselection news, plus one minor scrap of new polling.

With another two weeks to go before the break in the festive season polling drought:

• The closest thing we’ve had to a new poll over the break has been a ReachTEL survey of Tony Abbott’s electorate of Warringah, conducted for the Australia Institute. The automated phone poll of 743 respondents was conducted on December 17, and found support for the Liberals at 62.1% (up from 60.9% at the September 2013 election), the Greens at 16.1% (up from 15.5%) and Labor at 14.6% (down from 19.3%). The poll also found 50.9% believed Tony Abbott should retire from politics, with no time frame specified, while 35.4% preferring that he remain. When asked if his departure would make them more likely to vote Liberal, 36.7% said it would, compared with 17.5% who opted for less likely. A hike in the goods and services tax from 10% and 15% recorded 39.4% support and 46.5% opposition, whereas support for “gradually transitioning to 100 per cent renewable energy by the year 2030” was at 77.2%, with 16.7% opposed.

• James Robertson at Fairfax reports that the factional warfare engulfing the New South Wales Liberal Party is posing a threat to Craig Kelly, Liberal member for the seat of Hughes in Sydney’s outer south. Kelly would appear to have been undermined by a redistribution proposal that excises the Liverpool end of the electorate, reportedly home to two branches loyal to him and the arch-conservative tendency he represents, and adds a moderate-controlled branch at the Sutherland end of the seat. The most likely challenger is said to be Kent Johns, an influential moderate who sits on Sutherland Shire Council, followed by Liverpool mayor Ned Mannoun. Further complicating matters is a membership recruitment drive that conservatives have been conducting among the Macedonian community, which led the party’s moderate-dominated state executive to freeze membership at the Liverpool branch.

• Sarah Martin of The Australian reports on “heightened speculation” that dumped minister Jamie Briggs may be set to vacate his seat of Mayo at the election. The report says that Right faction MPs were meeting to discuss a possible successor, amid fears his ongoing presence could exacerbate the threat posed in the seat by the Nick Xenophon Team. The NXT has fortuitously preselected a disaffected former staffer to Briggs, Rebekha Sharkie.

• Daniel Wills of The Advertiser reports that six candidates will seek Liberal preselection for the seat of Adelaide, held for Labor by Kate Ellis, at a ballot of 500 party members to be held on February 6. Houssam Abiad, deputy Lord Mayor of Adelaide, had been attracting the most attention, but the report says the “front-runners” are David Colovic, a partner with HWL Ebsworth Lawyers, and Beth Loveday, a dentist. The report identifies the other contenders as Shaun Osborn, a policeman, Kent Aughey, a commercial consultant, and Emma Flowerdew, a small businesswoman.

• Matthew Dixon of the Ballarat Courier reports two candidates have nominated for Liberal preselection in Ballarat, held for Labor by Catherine King: Nick Shady, a farmer and mental health advocate, and Sarah Wade, a lawyer. The report also says the Nationals are planning to field candidates in all Labor-held Victorian regional seats, which is to say Ballarat, Bendigo and McEwen.

UPDATE: Channel Seven in Adelaide has results of a ReachTEL poll from Jamie Briggs’ electorate of Mayo, with better results than he might have feared: a Liberal primary vote of 43.9%, compared with 53.8% at the 2013 election, with Labor on 17.2% and the Nick Xenophon Team on 15.4%. This probably includes an unallocated undecided result of around 8%, suggesting all concerned would in fact be a few points higher – with Briggs close enough to 50% to get him home, even if the NXT got ahead of Labor. A two-party Liberal-versus-Labor result shows Briggs leading 59-41, compared with 62.5-37.5 at the election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,337 comments on “New year’s news snippets”

Comments Page 40 of 47
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  5. z,

    I agree Gayle’s actions were inappropriate in the situation. However the on going palaver has really been primarily a self serving exercise in media wankpersonship.

    I’d expect many thousands of woman were asked out for a drink in the last 24 hours. It’s a normal part of the mating process in this country.

  6. GG

    The media loves an over-reaction and they pursue it to the death – that is, until there is nothing left to say. I wish they’d move on.

  11. [“The piece was about the difficulties when robot cars mix with owner drivers. Again, just out of interest.”]

    No the piece was about self driving cars breaking road laws to protect the livelihood of the passengers rather than some artificially created bureaucratic bullshit invented by a politician.

    This links perfectly into my campaign against red light cameras with speed camera upgrades which WILL kill people.

  13. Greensborough Growler@1955

    z,

    I agree Gayle’s actions were inappropriate in the situation. However the on going palaver has really been primarily a self serving exercise in media wankpersonship.

    I’d expect many thousands of woman were asked out for a drink in the last 24 hours. It’s a normal part of the mating process in this country.

    I agree.

    So I guess in your parlance that makes us a pair of grumpy old misogynists. 😛

  16. TrueBlueAussie@1961

    “The piece was about the difficulties when robot cars mix with owner drivers. Again, just out of interest.”


    No the piece was about self driving cars breaking road laws to protect the livelihood of the passengers rather than some artificially created bureaucratic bullshit invented by a politician.

    This links perfectly into my campaign against red light cameras with speed camera upgrades which WILL kill people.

    Should we abolish all road rules?

  18. TBA

    [This links perfectly into my campaign against red light cameras with speed camera upgrades which WILL kill people.]

    I gotta know, besides being used to beat someone over the head…how does a camera kill anyone?

  19. poroti

    [Assange anyone ?]

    We haven’t heard much of him lately.

    Could he have been assassinated by a CIA ‘contractor’, dressed in a diving suit, slipping something into his pizza?

  21. Aussie

    because, apparently, confronted with a situation where a driver has to run an orange and incur a fine and perhaps some demerit points or dying, the average driver will choose death every time.

    You know it makes sense.

  23. [This links perfectly into my campaign against red light cameras with speed camera upgrades which WILL kill people.]

    We’ve had them for a number of years now without obvious problem

  24. zoomster@1972

    I’m sure I read recently that Assange was about to walk free. It obviously created a lot of excitement.

    It has cost an absolute fortune to get pretty much back to where they started.

    I think the Swedes were going to interview him by phone or video link instead of extraditing him – just as originally suggested.

  26. Sorry folks, just catching up.

    Bemused, the chap with the brain tumour died, but the Imam recovered. The nun bounced back as she had an explanation for his behaviour that made sense and didn’t mean she’d have to alter her opinion of him and possibly alienate her sister.

    Thanks, DTT and zoomster for those stories. They also illustrate what I was wanting to convey, i.e., changes in behaviour, from the subtle to the bizarre may be driven by quite different processes.

    poroti, a truly awful suggestion. Well done.

  27. [“I gotta know, besides being used to beat someone over the head…how does a camera kill anyone?”]

    Glad you asked!!!

    All Victorian red light cameras will now be upgraded to also include speed cameras.

    Now as a result you will:

    1. Not be allowed to go through a red light
    2. Not allowed to speed up through an orange light

    Now you ask, how does this Kill people.

    Well simple really. People will be aware of this fact that they can neither go through a red light at normal speed, NOR speed up to make sure they get through the yellow. So what will they do? They will put on the brakes hard to avoid going through an orange light… some without even needing to do so(though the fear of a ticket is now there).

    Now lets just pretend behind this person there is a semi-trailer packed full of Italian tiles…. or maybe a cement truck mixer… or… maybe even just some little old lady with bad brakes on her car.

    This will kill people. This is revenue raising.. and it will kill people.

  28. 1971

    (Warning, I am not a lawyer, this is not legal advice)

    I believe that a reasonable believe that another vehicle was about to ram into the back of you, if you stopped at the yellow or just turned red light, constitutes a valid defence in court.

    If there is a problem with people being run into, then the solution is an anti-tailgating campaign.

    If drivers know there is a strict red light enforcement policy, they are more likely to expect that the driver in front of them will stop.

  29. Monica Lynagh@1976

    Sorry folks, just catching up.

    Bemused, the chap with the brain tumour died, but the Imam recovered. The nun bounced back as she had an explanation for his behaviour that made sense and didn’t mean she’d have to alter her opinion of him and possibly alienate her sister.

    Thanks, DTT and zoomster for those stories. They also illustrate what I was wanting to convey, i.e., changes in behaviour, from the subtle to the bizarre may be driven by quite different processes.

    poroti, a truly awful suggestion. Well done.

    Not surprised by those outcomes.

    I lost a niece to a brain cancer – it is a dreadful thing.

    Good news about the Imam as I expected it would be.

  30. CTar1

    Last I heard Sweden and Ecuador had reached some agreement for Assange to be questioned in London. So local plods still boosting nearby take away’s sales.

  31. I am very willing to be corrected on this, but I have been going through the “Road Rule Knowledge” with my grandson who turned 17 today and wants to get his licence as soon as possible.

    I paid specific attention to the section on camera offences at traffic lights, because it was a bit fuzzy in my mind as to what the exact rule was.

    It states quite categorically (in the NSW rules at least) that going through a yellow light does NOT, repeat NOT incur a camera fine. Only crossing the line when the light is RED incurs a fine.

    As I said, if anyone wants to correct me, please go ahead.

  33. And here is the extract from the NSW Road Rules:

    [ Red light speed cameras
    Red light cameras are used to photograph vehicles that go through a red light.

    A penalty notice is then sent to the owner of the vehicle, who has the option to:

    Pay the fine. Advise the State Debt Recovery Office on a statutory declaration the name and address of the person driving at the time of the offence.

    Advise the State Debt Recovery Office you want to have the case heard by a court.

    If you are crossing the intersection as the light turns yellow (amber) and it is not safe to stop, do not panic. Continue driving through the intersection. The camera only takes a photograph if you cross over the stop line 0.3 seconds after the light has turned red.

    Traffic already in the intersection or entering on a yellow (amber) light will not activate the red light camera. ]

  34. Mr Ethical ‏@nw_nicholas Jan 7 Maastricht, Limburg

    I have received an apology from the FCA for failure to regulate HSBC over massive fraud. BBC not interested. BBC is run by an HSBC director.

  36. Bemused,
    My sister died from the brain cancer secondary to breast cancer. There was a spate of deaths from various forms of cancer among friends and colleagues over a short span of years, 6 including my sister in as many years.
    Sod awful.

  37. ZOILORD – I was chatting the other day to someone who was a teller in a bank in the country 40 or 50 years ago. On Monday morning, the local priest used to bring money into the church and put a small amount in the Church account and a large amount in his own!

  39. zoid

    I am looking forward to Pell “getting better” so he can give evidence to the Commission wonder how long he can stay in Rome.

  42. TBA
    [bad brakes on her car.

    This will kill people. This is revenue raising.. and it will kill people.]

    proving once again that it doesn’t let the truth and facts get in the way of its distorted thinking

  45. Monica Lynagh@1986

    Bemused,
    My sister died from the brain cancer secondary to breast cancer. There was a spate of deaths from various forms of cancer among friends and colleagues over a short span of years, 6 including my sister in as many years.
    Sod awful.

    My niece started with melanoma which was supposed to be cured.

    Then it showed up as breast cancer which was treated and supposedly cured.

    Then it re-emerged in her spine and brain.

    Just ghastly.

    Just one of a cluster of deaths that struck my family within a few years.

  46. The LNP campaign to undermine Medicare continues…

    [Labor’s health spokeswoman, Catherine King, said that the government’s cuts to the health budget “punish the most seriously ill, at every stage of illness and treatment”.

    “For many of the patients who are now bulk billed, those sorts of costs will be unaffordable. We already know that upfront costs are a huge barrier to people on limited incomes and many patients will delay, or even skip crucial scans,” King said. “As pathologists have pointed out, such measures are not only bad for patients, but are short-sighted and will cost the health system more in the longer term.”]

    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/jan/09/medicare-cuts-to-diagnostic-scans-will-cost-cancer-patients-say-radiologists

  49. briefly@1998

    1977
    TrueBlueAussie

    Drivers will adapt…become more prudent or cautious when approaching lights…

    There will be a kind of a Darwinian process where TBA and his ilk wipe each other out leaving the roads safer for the rest of us. 👿

  50. z @ 1970

    Parishioners unwittingly becoming accessories after the fact? More questions for Pell to answer.
    His inability to fly due to health concerns to face the RC is a mystery to me. After all, as a prince of the catholic church you would think he would be looking forward to spending eternity with god if he should cark it in transit. If he survives the flight, then he would be looking forward to clearing his reputation. Either way a win win situation. Unless he knows that he is on St Peters “banned list” at the pearly gates or heaven doesn’t exist. Besides, he doesn’t need the frequent flier points living in his humble palatial digs in Vatican City.

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