With another two weeks to go before the break in the festive season polling drought:
• The closest thing we’ve had to a new poll over the break has been a ReachTEL survey of Tony Abbott’s electorate of Warringah, conducted for the Australia Institute. The automated phone poll of 743 respondents was conducted on December 17, and found support for the Liberals at 62.1% (up from 60.9% at the September 2013 election), the Greens at 16.1% (up from 15.5%) and Labor at 14.6% (down from 19.3%). The poll also found 50.9% believed Tony Abbott should retire from politics, with no time frame specified, while 35.4% preferring that he remain. When asked if his departure would make them more likely to vote Liberal, 36.7% said it would, compared with 17.5% who opted for less likely. A hike in the goods and services tax from 10% and 15% recorded 39.4% support and 46.5% opposition, whereas support for “gradually transitioning to 100 per cent renewable energy by the year 2030” was at 77.2%, with 16.7% opposed.
• James Robertson at Fairfax reports that the factional warfare engulfing the New South Wales Liberal Party is posing a threat to Craig Kelly, Liberal member for the seat of Hughes in Sydney’s outer south. Kelly would appear to have been undermined by a redistribution proposal that excises the Liverpool end of the electorate, reportedly home to two branches loyal to him and the arch-conservative tendency he represents, and adds a moderate-controlled branch at the Sutherland end of the seat. The most likely challenger is said to be Kent Johns, an influential moderate who sits on Sutherland Shire Council, followed by Liverpool mayor Ned Mannoun. Further complicating matters is a membership recruitment drive that conservatives have been conducting among the Macedonian community, which led the party’s moderate-dominated state executive to freeze membership at the Liverpool branch.
• Sarah Martin of The Australian reports on “heightened speculation” that dumped minister Jamie Briggs may be set to vacate his seat of Mayo at the election. The report says that Right faction MPs were meeting to discuss a possible successor, amid fears his ongoing presence could exacerbate the threat posed in the seat by the Nick Xenophon Team. The NXT has fortuitously preselected a disaffected former staffer to Briggs, Rebekha Sharkie.
• Daniel Wills of The Advertiser reports that six candidates will seek Liberal preselection for the seat of Adelaide, held for Labor by Kate Ellis, at a ballot of 500 party members to be held on February 6. Houssam Abiad, deputy Lord Mayor of Adelaide, had been attracting the most attention, but the report says the “front-runners” are David Colovic, a partner with HWL Ebsworth Lawyers, and Beth Loveday, a dentist. The report identifies the other contenders as Shaun Osborn, a policeman, Kent Aughey, a commercial consultant, and Emma Flowerdew, a small businesswoman.
• Matthew Dixon of the Ballarat Courier reports two candidates have nominated for Liberal preselection in Ballarat, held for Labor by Catherine King: Nick Shady, a farmer and mental health advocate, and Sarah Wade, a lawyer. The report also says the Nationals are planning to field candidates in all Labor-held Victorian regional seats, which is to say Ballarat, Bendigo and McEwen.
UPDATE: Channel Seven in Adelaide has results of a ReachTEL poll from Jamie Briggs’ electorate of Mayo, with better results than he might have feared: a Liberal primary vote of 43.9%, compared with 53.8% at the 2013 election, with Labor on 17.2% and the Nick Xenophon Team on 15.4%. This probably includes an unallocated undecided result of around 8%, suggesting all concerned would in fact be a few points higher – with Briggs close enough to 50% to get him home, even if the NXT got ahead of Labor. A two-party Liberal-versus-Labor result shows Briggs leading 59-41, compared with 62.5-37.5 at the election.
zoomster@1894: yes, Gayle and Briggs were not polite and not respectful. They were gauche and boorish and ignored signals. Blokes who behave like that aren’t going to get anywhere (other than perhaps with groupies and prostitutes, who it has been suggested are Gayle’s standard fare).
In the old days, they would have been slapped in the face. Nowadays they’re lucky if they avoid being slapped with a writ.
I’ve no sympathy with Gayle or particularly Briggs, but I also struggle to feel strongly about it all. I’ve seen and heard of so many instances in which people have gotten away with far, far worse things: in this case, whoever it was who vengefuloy revealed the young lady’s identify to News Ltd (and News Ltd for publishing something that could not remotely be construed as being in the public interest.)
Re my 1901: for “prostitutes” re “strippers” (I believe it’s still a distinction with a difference).
David Rowe and Obama’s troubles with gun control.
:large
This might work better.
mb
I don’t particularly feel strongly about the issue, and would agree that the worse crime is revealing the woman’s identity. I don’t think that ‘others have got away with worse’, however, is a reason not to take small matters seriously.
When I first started teaching, one teacher stood out for having well disciplined classes. She said that the key was to pick on the small things right at the start – the way kids lined up at the door, how they entered the room, whether they were out of uniform (and if so, where was their note?), and so on. If you cracked down hard on the trivial stuff, the bigger behaviour problems rarely developed.
BK
I have to acclaim Obama for trying on gun control Americans and their guns make my stomach turn.
victoria,
Don’t you dare! You are a staple of the PB blog and a counterbalance to some of the more extreme elements.
Look, as far back as I can remember Poll Bludger descends down the rabbit hole over the long Christmas/New Year break from politics. When there isn’t a rush of politics to comment on other issues float to the surface and receive a greater prominence than they deserve. Also this time of year is supposedly the worst for the sorts of things we have been discussing, and so put the two things into a crucible and it can become quite explosive!
My advice to you is not to let it all get you down, and for the same reasons as muttleymcgee you sound as if you really need an outlet where you can externalise your grief and direct it into another area altogether.
Don’t let the b’s get you down. Let it wash through the system and anyway, we need as many fierce warriors for the Labor cause as possible putting an opinion out there contrary to the MSM/Liberal line.
Onwards and upwards! Don’t be abused into submission. Men win when women assume that position.
[I don’t particularly feel strongly about the issue, and would agree that the worse crime is revealing the woman’s identity. I don’t think that ‘others have got away with worse’, however, is a reason not to take small matters seriously.]
Like the post zoom, largely agree.
Victoria, I strongly endorse C@tmomma’s comments. I love your posts.
Remember the last time Labor trailed when going in to an an lection campaign.
I too agree with C@tmomma. Victoria and Muttley don’t go.And Bemused, lay off the idiot retort.
[Don’t be abused into submission. Men win when women assume that position.]
Totally agree C@t, well said.
Plus 1 from me outside left.
Seems hate posts are popular.
bemused now morphing in to Chris Kenny!
http://www.smh.com.au/world/china-hospital-bulldozed-with-doctors-nurses-patients-inside-20160109-gm2n5m.html
MTBW
Give a man a bulldozer !!
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/three-winched-to-safety-after-rogue-wave-sweeps-over-popular-sydney-swimming-spot-20160109-gm2kw0.html
Thank God there is no Climate Change happening!
lizzie
So true!
[“BK
I have to acclaim Obama for trying on gun control Americans and their guns make my stomach turn.”]
Why does it bother you? How does it affect your life?
bemused,
‘Seems hate posts are popular.’
No one hates anyone I would hope. Nor posts hate I would hope even more.
http://www.watoday.com.au/technology/technology-news/humans-are-slamming-into-driverless-cars-and-exposing-a-key-flaw-20151222-gltebr.html
[SOUTHFIELD, Michigan The self-driving car, that cutting-edge creation that’s supposed to lead to a world without accidents, is achieving the exact opposite right now: The vehicles have racked up a crash rate double that of those with human drivers.
The glitch? They obey the law all the time, without exception. This may sound like the right way to program a robot to drive a car, but good luck trying to merge onto a chaotic, jam-packed highway with traffic flying along well above the speed limit.
As the accidents have piled up – all minor scrape-ups for now – the arguments among programmers at places like Google and Carnegie Mellon University are heating up: should they teach the cars how to commit infractions from time to time to stay out of trouble?
“It’s a constant debate inside our group,” says Raj Rajkumar, co-director of the General Motors-Carnegie Mellon Autonomous Driving Collaborative Research Lab in Pittsburgh.
“And we have basically decided to stick to the speed limit. But when you go out and drive the speed limit on the highway, pretty much everybody on the road is just zipping past you. And I would be one of those people.”]
This is unbelievable. What are we doing with the countless reports, inquiries and recommendations resulting from them?
[Two of WA’s most respected authorities on bushfire management say the State is in no better shape to defend towns from disaster since the far-reaching Keelty reports earlier this decade.
John Iffla, who was awarded an Emergency Services Medal in the 2014 Australia Day honours for co-ordinating volunteer groups’ responses to the reports, said the key recommendation of installing bushfire protection zones around towns had been ignored.
The criticism was echoed by Bushfire Front chairman Roger Underwood, a retired general manager of the former Department of Conservation and Land Management, who said WA had “gone backwards” since Dwellingup was destroyed in 1961.]
https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/30524159/lessons-of-past-lost/#pause
C@tmomma@1921
You need to read some of the garbage victoria, among others, posted.
MTBW@1916: Vogon poetry?
bemused
[Maybe because these ‘ordinary’ guys became unimaginably unwell.”]
Unless I had seen a person have a psychotic episode, very scary , I would not have had a clue just how “off the planet” people can become.
It was dumbfounding to see the person I’d known as so sensible and bright become so irrational/delusional in such a short time. Fortunately there was someone else there who knew about how to handle someone in that state. If not I reckon there was a good chance the person would have died from one of the crazy things they wanted to try.
All ended well and with medication they were back to being the person we all knew.
Lizzie… you mean like… driving through red lights so you aren’t rear ended? Or accelerating through an orange light… EVEN if it means going over the speed limit… so you aren’t rear ended?
Uno the stuff you were very excited about the Victorian Stasi Government introducing?
bemused: most of us can acknowledge that we may be mistaken by others. It’s called grace. Try it.
poroti@1926
It’s a wicked problem.
Too often the person is unaware of their illness, a state known as ‘anosognosia’, and refuses to take necessary medication.
And that is even if they have got as far as being diagnosed and receiving treatment!
rhwombat@1928
If I find I have made a mistake I freely acknowledge it. I have done so on this blog.
O.K.
Last time I post on this, but 2 anecdotes to illustrate there can be different things driving a person’s behaviour other than the obvious.
I saw a nun in a sexual assault service who was disturbed by her brother in law’s behaviour toward her and confused as to what to do. The circumstances were that her elderly mother lived with her sister and BIL and she would visit every second weekend and stay over night. The BIL had started propositioning her and attempting to touch her sexually over about a month when she got up in the morning to say her early morning prayers. Her superior suggested she come see us as she really didn’t know what to do and hadn’t said anything to her sister.
His behaviour was very much out of character according to the nun. I enquired about what she knew about his history and he had a history of cancer and surgery for this some 5 years prior.
The nun agreed to speak with her sister and see if she could get him to the doctor. The BIL had had the cancer return – in his brain, frontal lobe.
An Imam was admitted to our psych ward after increasingly erratic and weird behaviour such as sitting in the back yard naked and burning the family’s clothing. As part of taking his history, including talking with the wife, it turned out he’d been hit in the head with a tyre bar some 12 months prior in a road rage incident, so we sent him off for an X-ray and there was a large haematoma slowly leaking into his brain.
rhwombat
Gina is our Vogon poet in residence.
TrueBlueAussie
Do you just spit rubbish without reading posts?
The piece was about the difficulties when robot cars mix with owner drivers. Again, just out of interest.
I have already told you that I only posted the ‘news’ about the new speed cameras for the benefit of others. I don’t even travel those roads.
You’ll have to search harder to find something nasty to say today.
MTBW,
[http://www.smh.com.au/world/china-hospital-bulldozed-with-doctors-nurses-patients-inside-20160109-gm2n5m.html]
A bull in a China op?
Acerbic Conehead
Very good!
Monica
Neighbour of a friend of mine was becoming increasingly erratic and also RACIST. She had previoiusly got on OK with Phillipino neighbours but started to complain and accuse them of eating dogs and smells of cooking dogs.
As she was also losing weight I suggested to my friend she get to see a Dr as odd smells and weight loss mnight incicate a brain tumour. She did go and was dead within months.
Monica Lynagh@1931
Hi Monica.
You have really raised a different issue there with one example of brain function being impaired by a physical illness, brain cancer, and the other example of a brain injury causing impairment.
Both very serious matters and I understand that a brain injury can cause subsequent mental illness to develop.
Are those patients OK now?
daretotread@1936
So going to the Dr killed her? 😛
bemused@1930: Not all comments are challenges. Not all conversations are arguments. Not all interactions are zero-sum games. You are frequently clever and amusing – but you also scare and hurt others, and their view of you is diminished by it. I suspect that this is not the first time you have been told this.
Acerbic Conehead
A gold koala stamp for that effort.
Well, I had thought the reason Mod Lib exited stage right from this blog was because her trolling went beyond the pale when she did her nasty list of “only Labor MPs are convicted paedophiles”…
It seems her running as a NXT candidate may also have been a reason to leave! Clearly, her messiah Turnbull’s return to the leadership wasn’t the clincher she’d hoped.
Either way, I would like to say her leaving the blog was a good thing. But given the madness of the last few weeks here — with nasty cantankerous male bullies taking over the blog — she was clearly not the only problem poster. 🙁
AC:
LOL good one.
roger bottomley
you are right. i was the only one who predicted the queensland labor win last year accurately. it would be a mistake of you to ban me, william.
and it is not appropriate to disregard people who are posting material and details of potential events which question the officially accepted version of events. stifling debates stifles human creativity and productivity, putting it bluntly.
DL:
I never really had a problem with Mod Lib. Yes s/he could sometimes be annoying but at least there was never any nastiness.
Now this is a brave woman…
Muslim woman ejected from Donald Trump rally
[New York: A Muslim advocacy group has called on Republican US presidential candidate Donald Trump to apologise after a Muslim woman engaged in a silent protest was removed by security personnel and booed by the crowd at his rally in South Carolina on Friday night.
“The image of a Muslim woman being abused and ejected from a political rally sends a chilling message to American Muslims and to all those who value our nation’s traditions of religious diversity and civic participation,” said Nihad Awad, executive director of the Council on American-Islamic Relations.
“Donald Trump should issue a public apology to the Muslim woman kicked out of his rally and make a clear statement that American Muslims are welcome as fellow citizens and as participants in the nation’s political process,” Mr Awad said.
Rose Hamid, a 56-year-old flight attendant, stood up in the stands directly behind Trump when he suggested that Syrian refugees fleeing violence in their homeland were affiliated with Islamic State militants.
Ms Hamid was wearing a white head scarf and a blue T-shirt emblazoned with the words, “Salam, I come in peace.”
Ms Hamid said on Saturday she wanted to make the Republican presidential candidate’s backers recognise they are supporting “hateful rhetoric.”]
We all know Trump is nuts but the crowd behaviour was just as appalling.
” a Herald Sun poll of more than 20,000 people showed 92 per cent believed he should not be banned from the BBL”.
Obviously, the crowd says the zealots need a Bex and a good lie down.
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/cricket/chris-gayle-has-the-crowd-behind-him-during-big-bash-clash-between-renegades-and-stars-at-etihad-stadium/news-story/cbf0c369856b92440cc5b065ebbacebc
rhwombat@1939
Yes, I reacted strongly to some hate filled posts.
Most of the time have not had issues with the posters concerned.
The one, the only, Acerbic Conehead! 😀
ML
One of our branch members – someone I’d regarded as a personal friend and trusted to the extent that she had managed one of my campaigns – started snarking at me in branch meetings, building up over a number of months to the point where I couldn’t open my mouth without her making some cutting remark (and a few times when I didn’t!)
Some of the other branch members became so concerned that they persuaded her to go to a doctor. It turned out that she had had a series of mild strokes — and the only symptom was her attitude to me.
Similarly, our neighbour, after years of peaceful coexistence, started sending us emails demanding changes in behaviour from us which kept growing. When he had a stroke, I wondered if his obsession with our minor transgressions had also been a symptom.
US
[and it is not appropriate to disregard people who are posting material and details of potential events which question the officially accepted version of events. stifling debates stifles human creativity and productivity, putting it bluntly.
]
Start your own blog, then, and let William run his the way he likes.