New year’s news snippets

Some festive season preselection news, plus one minor scrap of new polling.

With another two weeks to go before the break in the festive season polling drought:

• The closest thing we’ve had to a new poll over the break has been a ReachTEL survey of Tony Abbott’s electorate of Warringah, conducted for the Australia Institute. The automated phone poll of 743 respondents was conducted on December 17, and found support for the Liberals at 62.1% (up from 60.9% at the September 2013 election), the Greens at 16.1% (up from 15.5%) and Labor at 14.6% (down from 19.3%). The poll also found 50.9% believed Tony Abbott should retire from politics, with no time frame specified, while 35.4% preferring that he remain. When asked if his departure would make them more likely to vote Liberal, 36.7% said it would, compared with 17.5% who opted for less likely. A hike in the goods and services tax from 10% and 15% recorded 39.4% support and 46.5% opposition, whereas support for “gradually transitioning to 100 per cent renewable energy by the year 2030” was at 77.2%, with 16.7% opposed.

• James Robertson at Fairfax reports that the factional warfare engulfing the New South Wales Liberal Party is posing a threat to Craig Kelly, Liberal member for the seat of Hughes in Sydney’s outer south. Kelly would appear to have been undermined by a redistribution proposal that excises the Liverpool end of the electorate, reportedly home to two branches loyal to him and the arch-conservative tendency he represents, and adds a moderate-controlled branch at the Sutherland end of the seat. The most likely challenger is said to be Kent Johns, an influential moderate who sits on Sutherland Shire Council, followed by Liverpool mayor Ned Mannoun. Further complicating matters is a membership recruitment drive that conservatives have been conducting among the Macedonian community, which led the party’s moderate-dominated state executive to freeze membership at the Liverpool branch.

• Sarah Martin of The Australian reports on “heightened speculation” that dumped minister Jamie Briggs may be set to vacate his seat of Mayo at the election. The report says that Right faction MPs were meeting to discuss a possible successor, amid fears his ongoing presence could exacerbate the threat posed in the seat by the Nick Xenophon Team. The NXT has fortuitously preselected a disaffected former staffer to Briggs, Rebekha Sharkie.

• Daniel Wills of The Advertiser reports that six candidates will seek Liberal preselection for the seat of Adelaide, held for Labor by Kate Ellis, at a ballot of 500 party members to be held on February 6. Houssam Abiad, deputy Lord Mayor of Adelaide, had been attracting the most attention, but the report says the “front-runners” are David Colovic, a partner with HWL Ebsworth Lawyers, and Beth Loveday, a dentist. The report identifies the other contenders as Shaun Osborn, a policeman, Kent Aughey, a commercial consultant, and Emma Flowerdew, a small businesswoman.

• Matthew Dixon of the Ballarat Courier reports two candidates have nominated for Liberal preselection in Ballarat, held for Labor by Catherine King: Nick Shady, a farmer and mental health advocate, and Sarah Wade, a lawyer. The report also says the Nationals are planning to field candidates in all Labor-held Victorian regional seats, which is to say Ballarat, Bendigo and McEwen.

UPDATE: Channel Seven in Adelaide has results of a ReachTEL poll from Jamie Briggs’ electorate of Mayo, with better results than he might have feared: a Liberal primary vote of 43.9%, compared with 53.8% at the 2013 election, with Labor on 17.2% and the Nick Xenophon Team on 15.4%. This probably includes an unallocated undecided result of around 8%, suggesting all concerned would in fact be a few points higher – with Briggs close enough to 50% to get him home, even if the NXT got ahead of Labor. A two-party Liberal-versus-Labor result shows Briggs leading 59-41, compared with 62.5-37.5 at the election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,337 comments on “New year’s news snippets”

Comments Page 38 of 47
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  1. It’s good to see one of the new Labor MHRs Joanne Ryan getting a run with that piece linked by AA above.

    She’s one of the rising stars of the Party and will no doubt go on to greater things in the Parliament.

  2. victoria,

    I have followed the discussion but having no direct or even indirect experience or knowledge of the issues in question I have stayed out of the discussion.

    Any input from me would be superficial and based on ignorance so better to refrain.

    All I can really say for what it is worth is please try not to let certain posters beat you or drag you down. Try and stay strong.

    I value your contributions here and respect your opinion, input and passion on many topics.

    Don’t let them beat you down.

    Cheers.

    Mark.

  4. bemused
    After victoria’s frank statement this morning, the least you can do is stop attacking her with your bullying, insensitive comments. We understand that some of your anger rises from your personal tragedy. Can’t you give other posters some of the same understanding?

  5. Mehar Baba

    There are such bars in the real world. They are called gay bars. Its why some gays have resorted to male only bars as the straight men then follow and the gay bar suddenly becomes the pseudo gay bar.

    Thats the closest in the real world woman get to freedom from sexual harassment from men where men are present.

  6. meher

    and, in the real world, change only happens when such assumptions are challenged.

    Once upon a time, in the real world, women were regarded as too immature and silly to vote. They were told not to worry their pretty little heads about it.

    Once upon a time, in the real world, we didn’t have female sports commentators (I remember when an Aussie actress said she’d like to be a cricket commentator – Kate Fitzgerald? – and how aghast people were at the idea).

    Chris Gayle’s actions may have been small scale. Jamie Briggs may have been silly. But it’s challenging small things which bring the larger issues into light.

    After all, being asked to sit at the back of a bus isn’t really a big deal, is it?

  7. Well said, Victoria…..and I too hope I didnt add to your pain. I am one of those people who manage to hold everything together when it directly affects me and mine but attending the funeral of A distant acquaintance can have me blubbing uncontrollably. In the same vein, I suspect that sad terrible deaths in the news can trigger old traumas in some of us while others may lash out in fear and disgust. We need to be more aware of the invisible wounds people may have and tread more carefully with our words.

  8. victoria

    I value your input on this blog. Just as I value Muttley Mcgee’s.

    I do not want anyone leaving this blog due to bullying. Instead I want to see the bullying end.

    So please stay if you can stand it. It can be hard I have had to persevere over what I feel is bullying behaviour which has continued after I have stated this fact.

    Its been posters like you that have kept me here with your humour compassion for others and political insight.

    So please know the haters are a real minority from what I have seen on this blog and that most like me want you to stay. 🙂

  9. Alison Verhoeven ‏@AlisonVerhoeven · 56m56 minutes ago

    Alison Verhoeven Retweeted The Australian
    Balanced reporting needed 4 credibility @australian Libs didn’t declare $40k,Greens $15k,First Nations $50k #auspol

    The Labor Party failed to disclose a $30,000 corporate donation to its 2013 federal election campaign

    doesn’t appear to be paywalled…of course not its an anti-union, anti-Labor article…

  12. muttleymcgee

    My deepest sympathy to you and your family times like this are really hard.

    You will be grieving now but my hope would be that you will return when your pain subsides.

    Life is a bitch sometimes and very hard to deal with but it will lessen over time and when that happens there will be a group of people on this site expressing their views you may want to talk to again.

  13. Victoria,
    meant to add that you were one of the reasons I came back to this blog. Really value the likes of you, Lizzie, Poroti,Puff, et al…. Salt of the earth people who feel like the best of neighbours.
    We need more of you !!

  14. This is apt.

    [But the uncomfortable truth that many Australians seem too muddle-headed to face is that the four incidents are public markers of the pervasive male attitude that remains, often subliminally, towards women: creatures to be joked about, described and commentated on with demeaning language; pawed, ogled and propositioned, regardless of context, regardless of whether they’ve invited the attention.

    A man who behaves in such a way towards women might not be even remotely capable of violence. He might abhor violence. But unless those who complain of “political correctness gone mad” start to see that seemingly small instances of disrespect towards women can pave the way for much bigger violations, the rate of domestic violence will not decline. ]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/comment/monika-radulovics-weekend-sunrise-hug-from-hamish-mclachlan-sparks-sexism-debate-20160109-gm2hym.html#ixzz3wnL2YSAG
    Follow us: @smh on Twitter | sydneymorningherald on Facebook

  16. lizzie@1854

    bemused
    After victoria’s frank statement this morning, the least you can do is stop attacking her with your bullying, insensitive comments. We understand that some of your anger rises from your personal tragedy. Can’t you give other posters some of the same understanding?

    Muttley and I seem to have responded similarly to tragedy, with empathy and compassion.

    Others have responded with hate.

    Muttley and I have spoken out against the haters. I do not resile from that.

  17. I really don’t get the need for personal gratuitous invective here.

    Some topics clearly press big buttons for people and I can understand why they respond quite viscerally, but even when tragedy strikes personally there is no right or wrong response that justifies a mouthful of anger and abuse directed at other posters.

    I know that I have succumbed very occasionally to personal attacks (the Troll doesn’t count and anyway I refuse to respond to its inherently offensive posts almost all the time), but I try to pull back or, better, out when it is getting too offensive. I wonder if people here could do the same. Take a breather.

    You really don’t want to be at war with your neighbours all the time or feel that you have to move away.

  18. Worth reposting in case some missed it.
    bemused@1565

    I am posting this in the hope it makes certain points better than I have apparently been able to do and gives those filled with hatred pause to think a little.

    While driving on my way to get groceries, I hear the ABC News which had a report based on this story.

    Hatred wrong after Port Lincoln tragedy, says Adelaide’s Julia Trinne who lost son when father killed him

    An Adelaide woman whose son was killed by his father has taken to social media about this week’s Port Lincoln wharf tragedy, urging compassion rather than hatred.

    Key points:

    – Julia Trinne urged against swift judgment over Port Lincoln wharf tragedy
    – Said she would not resort to hate or anger after her son was killed by his father
    – Ms Trinne urged more effort be made to understand such tragedies

    Julia Trinne’s four-year-old son Luca was stabbed to death by his father David Janzow in July 2014, and Janzow was recently given a lifetime supervision order after being found not guilty due to mental incompetence.

    Ms Trinne said on Facebook her heart went out to the Little family after father Damien drove off the Port Lincoln wharf with his two sons in the car.

    “May their spirits shine bright as the community tries to process such devastation and loss,” she wrote.

    “I will keep sending love and prayers to these beautiful little boys and I will continue to be bewildered, without judgement, as to what on Earth could make a previously acknowledged decent and loving person to carry out such a horrific act.

    “Sometimes we will never know the answers to such questions.”

    Ms Trinne wrote of how she ‘lost’ her husband and partner of 11 years and missed both him — and her son Luca “beyond words”.

    Ms Trinne said she was saddened by media coverage of the Port Lincoln suspected murder-suicide and that some social media posts had been “circulating with judgement, anger and ignorance”.

    “Some people are choosing to take the approach of wondering why these parents are being remembered as nice guys, who lived ordinary lives, when really, all they are now is ‘child killers’,” she wrote.

    “Wow. Just wow. Really? Maybe because these ‘ordinary’ guys became unimaginably unwell.”

    Compassion urged over ‘alarming number’ of cases

    Ms Trinne urged society to take a more compassionate approach.

    “How about spending time exploring how and why these parents got to this point and what can be done to reduce the alarming number of similar cases?” she wrote.

    Ms Trinne said it was understandable there were a range of emotions expressed.

    “It’s important for people to feel what they need to feel — and anger is part of that,” she said, but she said some people were being judgemental “at such an early stage without all of the necessary information”.

    She hinted she would have more to tell of her own family tragedy.

    “The time is near for me to share our story and that is one of a happy and loving family of four, who worked hard, had lots of friends, lived in a beautiful home and had a successful business,” she wrote.

    “My little boys and I lived with a man who had always been kind, gentle and loving. Always. You won’t find a person who says otherwise.

    “A man who also suffered from a mental illness, who sought treatment and did all the things we thought were needed to keep him in the best space possible.”

    She said she would not resort to hate or anger.

    “I get the impression that people out there would be satisfied for me to hate Dave,” Ms Trinne wrote.

    “That hate and anger is the way in which I should respond to our devastation. They won’t be getting that from me.

    “What you’ll get from me is love, compassion, peace and forgiveness — no matter how broken I am at times. You’ll get someone who wants to learn what it takes for a beautiful person to get to the point of snapping and carrying out the most horrific crime to someone they had loved and adored so dearly up until that point.

    “You’ll get someone who wants to prevent this happening to other loving families.”

    Julia Trinne’s Facebook page is easy to locate to see the original post she made and the comments it has elicited.

    https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=686140426

  22. Meher
    As a professional woman, who worked for years in the CPS at an age similar to that of the Hong Kong lawyer I find Briggs behavior unaaceptable and over the bounds even for the blokey culture of previous eras.

    1. Lack of discretion: Even if the woman was interested in a bit of a flirtation or more, what you can be 100% certain of is that she would want discretion. In that sense kissing on the neck went way, way to far. We are talking a PROFESSIONAL woman here, who needs to go to meetings and be seen as serious and responsible, not a good time party girl. While the office receptionist will probably not find her career prospects damaged by an indisceet affair, the consular lawyer most certainly WOULD. Now I would expect a minister or ANY senior public servant to be fully aware of this. Being drunk is no excuse, nor is the possiblility that a woman (not this one) was interesterd. In the latter case a smile and a nod with a discreet separate leaving time would be the way to “enjoy” playing away.

    2. If the rumours of him putting a hand up her skirt are correct there is no possible excuse whatsoever, drunk or sober and EVEN in Meher’s blokey culture. Look I would have LOATHED even my long term partner (later husband) to have molested me publically in that way.

    3. Jaime should know (or should have been told) that women in the diplomatic corps are especially constrained regarding handling unwelcome attention. After all if a member of consular staff are out and about socialising (which is a key part of their job) with someone with whom they are in trade or diplomatic negotioations and she slaps (or kicks in the goolies) a too attentive Saudi prince, Chinese business man, or Japamnese politician, it would not be considered good behaviour.

    4. The CoS must take some of the blame, given that it appears the woman actually indicated he had gone too far and sought help. I have no idea why the CoS did not pour Jaime into a taxi and take him to his hotel.

    5. Obviopusly the leaking of the photo is a particularly serious offence, for which there is no excuse.

  29. zoomster@1856: I once would have agreed with you. But that the me who agreed with you was a cosseted upper middle class boy who spent most of my life living in terrace houses in short walking distance from bars which serve more varieties of coffee than beers on tap.

    In more recent years, I’ve had a lot more to do with blue collar people from the suburbs. And, in the suburbs at night, boys and girls come out to play. And many girls are players, just as much as the men. And, just as happens in children’s play, sometimes people, especially the girls, keep coming back for more. And these are modern, twenty-first century girls with worthwhile jobs and sassy attitudes. They’re worldly and, in some ways quite tough.

    It’s a world that horrifies me in many ways. But it is what it is. A lot has been done to stamp out sexism in the workplace, and it’s done a great deal of good. But the nightlife of today seems far more abrasive and predatory (and not just from the blokes) than the one in which I grew up. The rise of online predation by both sexes (aka Tinder) is probably changing that again.

    Anyway, that’s my perspective.

    And guytaur, I’m with you re gay bars: I even find their less testosterone-filled atmosphere quite appealing. And I’m a lifelong hetero bloke! (That said, I did visit several gay clubs and bathhouses with friends in the pre-HIV era, and they were a different sort of thing entirely. Some images remain difficult to erase from the brain!)

  31. [Marie Rowland
    Marie Rowland is the Nick Xenophon Team candidate for the seat of Warringah. She is passionate about living in a more integrated society where everyone has a voice.

    Marie was born in the UK of Sri Lankan/English heritage and lived in New Zealand before settling in Australia. An archetypal Australian, Marie is an immigrant that embodies the values of inclusiveness and acceptance.

    Marie achieved a Bachelor of Arts at the University of Melbourne and then went on to study fashion, opening her own design and manufacturing studio at the age of 20. By 21 she had her own shopfront which she successfully ran for 6 years in the iconic fashion precinct of Richmond, Victoria. Moving to Sydney, she worked at Fairfax Media, followed by the Sydney Cove Authority publicising the iconic Rocks area. Marie then opened her own PR, marketing and advertising agency, specialising in the lifestyle, arts and fashion industries.

    Seeking more meaningful work, Marie received post-graduate qualifications in psychology and counselling and opened her own practice in 2008.

    Bringing an empathic and practical approach, Marie co-founded the SUPERWOMAN’S TOOLKIT which addressed issues facing women today, including the elusive work/life balance. She co-presents a series of workshops throughout Sydney covering topics ranging from stress to mindfulness, as well as providing expert commentary about psychological and emotional health issues for a variety of media.

    Looking to further her contribution to her community and to Australia, Marie joined the Nick Xenophon Team to advocate for social justice and government transparency. She saw Nick Xenophon as a voice of reason and compassion, providing cut-through in an age of self-interested, point-scoring politics.

    Unlike many of the professional politicians who have never held down a real job, run a business, faced redundancy or cash-flow issues – Marie Rowland has owned and run small businesses and worked in cut-throat corporate environments. She believes policy makers should have a similar lived experience as their constituents and not being hot-housed in Canberra.

    Through an empathic and equitable approach, Marie Rowland is keen to elevate the political conversation and bring about lasting change and reform in Warringah.

    Marie lives in the Manly area with her partner and two children. ]

  32. This is Rowan Deans’ take on the situation. Warning: prepare to be offended.

    [Monica Attard Verified account 
    ‏@AttardMon Offensive, mysogonistic and crap: all in one piece. Well done AFR: ]

    http://www.afr.com/opinion/at-last-a-safe-politically-correct-guide-to-modern-chat-20160107-gm1efy?login_token=L7hSxT5jyq-MiD7syYNwPFt7q10OsjmxBQcVcAsy5JaEG9-NVhDw6MMg_sLUEcITLja3-SlQw0wGxeXHGexh8Q&expiry=1452382651&single_use_token=ZmtC10kBfmNJj97toU1b1b2e_itYTVFXssF0omaARIUfBTZI9NM1o-cCODZvs8cUhLa3HY9QvWKxSdcpolfBaQ

  33. dtt: I have somehow missed the rumour of the hand up the skirt. If true, that’s a very different matter – criminal assault – and the punishment so far wouldn’t be nearly enough. But is there any truth to this rumour?

  34. Xenophon seems to be targetting seats held by more RW Libs. This accords with the view that X is ideologically a small L Liberal.

    To succeed he might need to do a deal with Labor on preferences. If he can get to second on the TPP he may have a chance to knock off the Libs in some of their safer seats.

  36. Steve777@1816:

    Thanks for the AFR review/Economist link. I think you have cracked the enigma/puzzle/mystery. Well done.

    Rowe has always seemed more thoughtful than most cartoonists – like Petty with more elegant style. Rowe’s style (and, increasingly, content) remind me strongly of Ralph Steadman. All he needs now is a resurrected Raoul Duke and Dr Gonzo.

  38. Meher

    I have no idea if the rumour is true or not. It appartently came form local ie Hong Kong sources.

    While I take your point that in the modern bars, SOME girls are much more openly promiscuous than in my day (eg TV series Sex in City or Friends), I do not find this with my own kids or their friends. The thing is we are NOT talking young people in a bar in Western Sydney, we are talking two middle class educated PROFESSIONALS. Truly Jaime and his CoS should have known better.

  39. Well, shoot me, I found Rowan Dean’s article moderately amusing: until the last bit, which crossed the line into racism and Muslim-bashing, and should have been blue-pencilled

    And I cannot abide Dean: I once suggested to a friend of mine who knows Tom Switzer that she should pass on to Switzer my view that the worst thing he has ever done – worse even than being a male stripper (it’s true) – was to bring Dean back to Australia to work at the Australian Spectator.

    But Monica Attard has gone way over the top. She should take a look at Malcolm Knox’s article: I still reckon that was a complete shocker!

  40. [lefty e

    Posted Sunday, January 10, 2016 at 10:58 am | Permalink

    The joke’s on us, Dutton. Laugh it up chuckleboy – Torres Strait sinking]

    I’m not sure that Dutton would care much about losing TI.

  41. [You grub!

    It has nothing to do with the antics of Chris Gale.
    ]

    Why then was Ms McLaughlin slagged off with some more of the victim abuse you and others so enjoy? It was off topic, unnecessary and yes grubby, but not my post.

  44. mb

    That’s what equality looks like.

    Yes, if a woman makes it clear she wants a flirtation – or more – by all means go for it. But it’s clear from everything we know about the Briggs case that she sent him every signal possible to back off and he ignored them.

    All the modern young things I associate with understand about signals. However aggressive you might see their behaviour, a guy – or girl – who ignores those is seen as boorish. Those aggressive women you see are operating in a space of safety, with clearly defined boundaries. (And that, folks, is what equality looks like).

    We get back to the basics of politeness and respect. It really is that simple. Briggs and Gayle showed neither.

  46. WeWantPaul@1891

    You grub!

    It has nothing to do with the antics of Chris Gale.


    Why then was Ms McLaughlin slagged off with some more of the victim abuse you and others so enjoy? It was off topic, unnecessary and yes grubby, but not my post.

    Into verbaling people now?

    I have repeatedly said Ms McLaughlin did nothing wrong. So how is that victim abuse?

    I also don’t see her as a victim in any meaningful sense of the word.

  49. For balance sake, the AFR needs to allow a female journo like Laura Tingle to write a companion piece to Dean’s blokey drivel.

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