New year’s news snippets

Some festive season preselection news, plus one minor scrap of new polling.

With another two weeks to go before the break in the festive season polling drought:

• The closest thing we’ve had to a new poll over the break has been a ReachTEL survey of Tony Abbott’s electorate of Warringah, conducted for the Australia Institute. The automated phone poll of 743 respondents was conducted on December 17, and found support for the Liberals at 62.1% (up from 60.9% at the September 2013 election), the Greens at 16.1% (up from 15.5%) and Labor at 14.6% (down from 19.3%). The poll also found 50.9% believed Tony Abbott should retire from politics, with no time frame specified, while 35.4% preferring that he remain. When asked if his departure would make them more likely to vote Liberal, 36.7% said it would, compared with 17.5% who opted for less likely. A hike in the goods and services tax from 10% and 15% recorded 39.4% support and 46.5% opposition, whereas support for “gradually transitioning to 100 per cent renewable energy by the year 2030” was at 77.2%, with 16.7% opposed.

• James Robertson at Fairfax reports that the factional warfare engulfing the New South Wales Liberal Party is posing a threat to Craig Kelly, Liberal member for the seat of Hughes in Sydney’s outer south. Kelly would appear to have been undermined by a redistribution proposal that excises the Liverpool end of the electorate, reportedly home to two branches loyal to him and the arch-conservative tendency he represents, and adds a moderate-controlled branch at the Sutherland end of the seat. The most likely challenger is said to be Kent Johns, an influential moderate who sits on Sutherland Shire Council, followed by Liverpool mayor Ned Mannoun. Further complicating matters is a membership recruitment drive that conservatives have been conducting among the Macedonian community, which led the party’s moderate-dominated state executive to freeze membership at the Liverpool branch.

• Sarah Martin of The Australian reports on “heightened speculation” that dumped minister Jamie Briggs may be set to vacate his seat of Mayo at the election. The report says that Right faction MPs were meeting to discuss a possible successor, amid fears his ongoing presence could exacerbate the threat posed in the seat by the Nick Xenophon Team. The NXT has fortuitously preselected a disaffected former staffer to Briggs, Rebekha Sharkie.

• Daniel Wills of The Advertiser reports that six candidates will seek Liberal preselection for the seat of Adelaide, held for Labor by Kate Ellis, at a ballot of 500 party members to be held on February 6. Houssam Abiad, deputy Lord Mayor of Adelaide, had been attracting the most attention, but the report says the “front-runners” are David Colovic, a partner with HWL Ebsworth Lawyers, and Beth Loveday, a dentist. The report identifies the other contenders as Shaun Osborn, a policeman, Kent Aughey, a commercial consultant, and Emma Flowerdew, a small businesswoman.

• Matthew Dixon of the Ballarat Courier reports two candidates have nominated for Liberal preselection in Ballarat, held for Labor by Catherine King: Nick Shady, a farmer and mental health advocate, and Sarah Wade, a lawyer. The report also says the Nationals are planning to field candidates in all Labor-held Victorian regional seats, which is to say Ballarat, Bendigo and McEwen.

UPDATE: Channel Seven in Adelaide has results of a ReachTEL poll from Jamie Briggs’ electorate of Mayo, with better results than he might have feared: a Liberal primary vote of 43.9%, compared with 53.8% at the 2013 election, with Labor on 17.2% and the Nick Xenophon Team on 15.4%. This probably includes an unallocated undecided result of around 8%, suggesting all concerned would in fact be a few points higher – with Briggs close enough to 50% to get him home, even if the NXT got ahead of Labor. A two-party Liberal-versus-Labor result shows Briggs leading 59-41, compared with 62.5-37.5 at the election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,337 comments on “New year’s news snippets”

Comments Page 3 of 47
1 2 3 4 … 47

  1. JoshBBornstein: If Barnaby Joyce becomes Deputy PM & Malcolm Turnbull travels overseas…….
    sorry I can’t finish this tweet

    This answers my question not announced yet but looks like its happening

  2. DTT @96, Yep.

    I suppose people could argue Turnbull is trying to evolve the LNP to the center, which IMO gives him far too much slack. He really does need a few concrete things to show he is moving to the centre to establish any authority.

  3. Charlie

    [“Malcolm is only leaving Dutton in place because when the brown stuff hits the fan about Australia’s treatment of refugees, he’ll be able to say “he wasn’t appointed by me”, and Dutton, Abbott and Morrison will cop the full force of the Royal Commission.”]

    Makes sense to me there is something very strange about Dutton.

  4. What agreement will Turnbull make with Joyce regarding policies?

    I suspect more of a return to Abbott era policies than we have seen so far.

  5. KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN @ 85: I take your points. I’m not sure that nothing has changed in Treasury and Finance: the return of Martin Parkinson as head of PM&C could have the effect of lessening the overall influence of Treasury, as the PM will have a top-class source of alternative advice at his fingertips. But we will probably have to wait and see what is in the budget to make a real call on this.

    And I would concede that the changes to date have more been in the areas of social and cultural conservatism than economic conservatism. But I’d see them as significant nonetheless. First, they are important in their own right. The end of culture wars, and of attacks on thinking, learning and science, is something to be welcomed. Secondly, they represent something of a fracturing of the conservative consensus of economic freedom but social repression, of the type fostered by William F. Buckley in the US and John Howard here. And that’s probably a good thing for Australia.

  6. Pedant,

    Abandoning Gonski funding behind 2 sackings and a Royal Commission doesn’t give me much faith in a bipartisan approach to education and learning.

  7. I disagree about Turnbull’s handling of the matter.

    He would have been much better off asking Briggs to step aside pending the outcome of an investigation. This is perfectly in line with what happens both in the public service and (less often) in business when a matter as serious as this is alleged.

    Let’s not forget that what was alleged is sexual harassment, which is against the law.

    That Briggs was able to hang onto his Ministerial salary, car and perks during the investigation of the incident is one of the things that highlights the weakness of Turnbull’s position. If he had any guts – and any genuine sense of propriety – Briggs would have been set aside as soon as the complaint came in and then later reinstated in the event the allegation was found to be without merit.

    Turnbull would have come out of it having followed standard procedures – ensuring procedural fairness, as others have pointed out – AND as a strong leader for having acted decisively. And it would have sent the message to any other potential miscreants that they need to toe the line or else.

  9. chinda63 – I did a bit of googling of past Ministerial sackings, and most of them involved a period of standing aside whilst the facts were established. If the Minister was absolved, they resumed their position.

  10. I don’t think Dutton is in trouble from one rude text, I think he’s in trouble because it’s a part of his ongoing rudeness and incompetence so people are starting to pile on. And we mustn’t forget that the text was sent in support of Jamie Briggs. From Dutton’s pov, Briggs was just a good bloke.

    I also agree with everyone who has said that Malcolm’s position is very weak. His statement before the spill was what everyone wanted to hear, but since then he’s mostly been missing in action.

  12. …just a bit of wondering out loud (so to speak) but, given the lead time, why didn’t Turnbull have someone ready to step into Briggs’ Ministry?

    He’d had at least three weeks to play with scenarios if Briggs had to go.

    Is it an admission that the Ministry was superflous anyway, just a way to give Briggs a job, or is he dragging out the process to toy with potential candidates?

  15. Due process is a vexed issue, we would all want it applied to us if we were ever in a ‘situation’. Some situations are black & white & require little nuancing. I’m not sure that Turnbull was wrong in applying it to Briggs or that by applying due process that it means he is weak.

    I suspect this may be a case whereby we are guided by our political preferences.

    Where I felt Turnbull was weak was in failing to investigate who leaked the photo to the Oz, this to me was extremely disappointing.

  16. Minister for Cities indeed.

    He’s proven himself to be the Minister for something that rhymes with cities, however.

    And the Well Built environment.

  18. [ “Malcolm is only leaving Dutton in place because when the brown stuff hits the fan about Australia’s treatment of refugees, he’ll be able to say “he wasn’t appointed by me”, and Dutton, Abbott and Morrison will cop the full force of the Royal Commission.” ]

    That makes sense to me from the Libs and MalPM’s point of view.

    But it has a use by date that may have already passed. He IS in fact the PM, has the authority of the PM, (Lol!) and will have to wear the consequences when they come down. He’s in the position that he could do something, why hasn’t he, and there will be bad shit happening in Nauru and Manus on his watch.

  19. [The reportage is that it is all to do with the imminent retirement of Warren Truss.]

    What if Truss decides he is not going for the time being. This looks very much like Barnaby is trying to blast him out – or at least give him a very obvious hurry on.

    Let’s see what happens….

  20. My pet dislike in sales is the so called recommended retail price (RRP). This is just a marketing tool used by suppliers to help their resellers. Nobody sells at the RRP so everything seems a discount. Why would a supplier need to recommend a retail price at all let alone one with a huge markup?

  21. [Richard Denniss ‏@RDNS_TAI · 3h3 hours ago
    Barnaby says he is ready to lead. Ok then: does he support Tinkler’s open cut coal mine or the agriculture industry? Lead. Choose. #auspol]

  23. pedant at 105

    “And I would concede that the changes to date have more been in the areas of social and cultural conservatism than economic conservatism. But I’d see them as significant nonetheless. First, they are important in their own right. The end of culture wars, and of attacks on thinking, learning and science, is something to be welcomed.”

    I would agree, these are important changes leading to the opportunity to make further changes, particularly economically. I think most now feel that Turnbull’s honeymoon is over & will be expecting more extensive changes in 2016.

  24. kevjohnno

    Look at the history. Recommended Retail Price is a consumer protection hard fought for by the unions. It prevents a lot of shady scams in pricing ripping off consumers.

  25. Question @106: I wouldn’t suggest that there’s a bipartisan approach to education funding now: plainly there’s not. I more had in mind that we are at least free of the situation in which nut cases like Maurice Newman and Christopher Monckton had an inside run when it came to getting a hearing from the government.

    On the broader question of whether there’s been change, the conniptions now apparent in far right circles are a pretty interesting indicator. Hold your nose and log into the Cattalaxy Files blog, or read this piece from Quadrant, kindly linked recently by Dr Brent: http://quadrant.org.au/opinion/qed/2015/12/incoherent-signals-planet-janet/. (For that matter, Quadrant’s political commentary these days consists pretty much exclusively of old age burning and raving at close of day.)

  28. lizzie

    Yes. Its also a legal requirement. Without it a newspaper bought at one newsagent would be different to that in another one for the very same newspaper.

  29. Pedant @125

    I accept there has been a change of language, and that is a good thing, but it’s also something I expect from a PM. I don’t give Turnbull a special credit for it just because he has a lot of monkey’s on his back.

    When I’m in the right mood I will read the Quadrant article, and no doubt they are very upset about the change of language.

    However, so far they shouldn’t be upset about actual government policy, and Gonski funding is a good example.

  30. guytaur,

    You really don’t know whtat you are talking about.

    A copy of the Australian in Central Sydney, is different to a free copy given out at an airpot is different to a copy purchased at Bourke.

    Sellers can sell for whatever price they think they can get.

  31. pedant at 125

    Thanks for the link to that article by James Allen, it confirms my belief that Conservatives realise their once-in-a-generation opportunity has slipped through Abbott’s fingers & now they realise that centralist-Australia will once again reign.

    What we are seeing from Conservatives is a final flailing of the corpse, lets hope forever though I wouldn’t necessarily bet on it & we need to be vigilant to prevent it ever happening again.

  33. TPOF,

    Well you’ve got Barnaby today announcing “the five fearful words”, “I am ready to lead”. So, My guess is the announcement is imminent.

  34. Recommended Retail Price came into existence as part of the package of legislation which outlawed retail price maintenance. RPM was the means whereby a supplier could refuse to provide supplies unless they were sold to consumer at a fixed or minimum amount.

    That cartel behaviour was outlawed under the Trade Practices Act – another great Whitlam achievement that has stood and been strengthened over the years. It dealt with a classic case where the free market promoters of the right were happy to protect the profits of their own kind while preaching the benefits of the free market.

    And, as always, the protection of the workers were used to argue against these changes. It was Bob Hawke, as leader of the ACTU at the time, who called the lie on that by starting up union backed discounted products, especially petrol. Because the biggest beneficiaries of cheaper prices were the workers – because the wealthier could always afford to buy at inflated prices.

    It’s the same story today with the proposals to increase the GST – but in reverse. The wealthy don’t mind if all goods and services are increased by 5 to 15% because they can afford to pay the extra – especially when they are being given income tax cuts in exchange. It is the poorer people with fixed and limited incomes who cop the brunt, even with ‘compensation’ that does not take into account the spending requirements of individual people and families. And, of course, the compensation is restricted, while tax cuts at the top end are open-ended.

  37. [ Well you’ve got Barnaby today announcing “the five fearful words”, “I am ready to lead”. So, My guess is the announcement is imminent. ]

    Damn…that the scariest thing i have read all day. 🙁

  38. Question @ 129: I would agree that what we are getting from Mr Turnbull by way of language is no more than we have a right to expect. That having been said, it’s still a blessed relief after what we had for the preceding two years.

    Reading Quadrant these days is both funny and sad. Funny because of the wackiness in every paragraph. Sad because it’s been a good magazine in times past, such as when it was run by Richard Krygier, and edited by James McAuley and later Robert Manne. I rather think it was originally modelled on the now-defunct Encounter magazine in the UK; but Encounter published really serious writers and thinkers, not the two-bit bomb throwers who write for Quadrant these days. (There’s an archive of Encounter articles at http://www.unz.org/Pub/Encounter).

  40. guytaur,

    The retailer can sell it for whatever he likes.

    A retailer at Bourke might add a $1 for the freight to the price. Home delivery might invoke a charge either per item or weekly. A retailer might decide he can command a better price in his shop.

    But no one can tell him what price he will sell for.

  42. guytaur @ 132

    In fact, ‘recommended’ means just that. They can go above the RRP at any time. It is only that with discounting from the published price being the usual trend, it is far more likely that the price would be undercut by competitors, not go in the following direction.

    I buy a fair bit of wine and watch wine prices closely. Big retailers like Liquorland and BWS consistently actually charge above the RRP and then offer big discounts for bundles or a 6 pack which brings the cost of the wine down to the street price when these sales are on, or else capture the part of the market who needs only one bottle now and is not shopping around.

    As I said in my previous post, RRP came into existence solely to ensure that suppliers do not enforce fixed prices. The fact that the RRP is often farcical for many products reflects the need to give a lot of free space to retailers (especially large ones who enforce their market power to demand cheaper wholesale prices and then undercut smaller competitors) rather than providing an upper limit.

  43. Pedant @125,

    Made the effort to read the Quadrant article. Quite amusing if not surprising to know there are people to right of Albrechtsen 🙂

    I found this an amusing source of his annoyance…
    [a carefully orchestrated the mooting of a GST rise of 50%, from 10% to 15%.]
    I had the impression through the musings of Baird (and between-the-lines Hockey) that the LNP always wanted to offer raising the GST with income tax cuts at the next election. I would not regard it as a shift from the right or a change in direction for the LNP myself.

    I agree with the conclusion on Turnbull getting an “A” though 🙂

    [Yes, yes, yes — there is plenty of room for conservatives to disagree about whether to support Turnbull (while holding our noses). But the idea that he gets an ‘A’ so far is just plain ridiculous.]

    The fact is that the mad right will always gravitate to the LNP.

  45. Just went to Wikipedia.

    I am wrong my apologies to all. Sorry. Still I got the main thrust right about the unions bringing it in to stop scamming the consumer.

  46. guytaur,

    Once again, you have no idea!

    Running to the ACCC will get you a smile, an encouraging word and a pat on the head. But, absolutely, no joy. it’s not illegal to sell goods above the RRP.

  47. [The fact is that the mad right will always gravitate to the LNP.]

    It’s the committed RWNJs who are the backbone of the Liberal party grass roots and who provide all the grunt and muscle come election time. They have an inordinate weight in preselections so newer members are likely to be more conservative/right-wing and will be a dead-weight in a Turnbull government if there is one post election. They are also more likely to be in the safer seats because that is where the older conservatives live.

    You could probably say the same about Labor, except that the institutional involvement of unions provide some rebalancing. Of course, union power brings significant problems of its own, with drones being parachuted into safe Senate and reps seats in factional deals. Drones or nutters? Who to choose?

  48. Guytaur & Lizzie

    The intentions might have been good but it is widely abused. Some RRPs I have seen have really huge RRP markups on the prices supplied to the retailers and have little relation to the actual pricing in retails stores. What sort of benchmarking is that? They are widely used to pretend goods are being discounted while the seller is still making a large profit on each unit.

  49. [Drones or nutters? Who to choose?]

    Don’t ask me, I’m a partisan hack.

    The LNP Cream is Turnbull, Bishop and Morrison. I personally think Wayne Swan is better than any of them. 🙂

  50. Charlie

    [Where I felt Turnbull was weak was in failing to investigate who leaked the photo to the Oz, this to me was extremely disappointing.]

    The rule is never launch an investigation into something that could be detrimental to you or that you already know what the result will be.

Comments Page 3 of 47
1 2 3 4 … 47

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *