With another two weeks to go before the break in the festive season polling drought:
• The closest thing we’ve had to a new poll over the break has been a ReachTEL survey of Tony Abbott’s electorate of Warringah, conducted for the Australia Institute. The automated phone poll of 743 respondents was conducted on December 17, and found support for the Liberals at 62.1% (up from 60.9% at the September 2013 election), the Greens at 16.1% (up from 15.5%) and Labor at 14.6% (down from 19.3%). The poll also found 50.9% believed Tony Abbott should retire from politics, with no time frame specified, while 35.4% preferring that he remain. When asked if his departure would make them more likely to vote Liberal, 36.7% said it would, compared with 17.5% who opted for less likely. A hike in the goods and services tax from 10% and 15% recorded 39.4% support and 46.5% opposition, whereas support for “gradually transitioning to 100 per cent renewable energy by the year 2030” was at 77.2%, with 16.7% opposed.
• James Robertson at Fairfax reports that the factional warfare engulfing the New South Wales Liberal Party is posing a threat to Craig Kelly, Liberal member for the seat of Hughes in Sydney’s outer south. Kelly would appear to have been undermined by a redistribution proposal that excises the Liverpool end of the electorate, reportedly home to two branches loyal to him and the arch-conservative tendency he represents, and adds a moderate-controlled branch at the Sutherland end of the seat. The most likely challenger is said to be Kent Johns, an influential moderate who sits on Sutherland Shire Council, followed by Liverpool mayor Ned Mannoun. Further complicating matters is a membership recruitment drive that conservatives have been conducting among the Macedonian community, which led the party’s moderate-dominated state executive to freeze membership at the Liverpool branch.
• Sarah Martin of The Australian reports on “heightened speculation” that dumped minister Jamie Briggs may be set to vacate his seat of Mayo at the election. The report says that Right faction MPs were meeting to discuss a possible successor, amid fears his ongoing presence could exacerbate the threat posed in the seat by the Nick Xenophon Team. The NXT has fortuitously preselected a disaffected former staffer to Briggs, Rebekha Sharkie.
• Daniel Wills of The Advertiser reports that six candidates will seek Liberal preselection for the seat of Adelaide, held for Labor by Kate Ellis, at a ballot of 500 party members to be held on February 6. Houssam Abiad, deputy Lord Mayor of Adelaide, had been attracting the most attention, but the report says the “front-runners” are David Colovic, a partner with HWL Ebsworth Lawyers, and Beth Loveday, a dentist. The report identifies the other contenders as Shaun Osborn, a policeman, Kent Aughey, a commercial consultant, and Emma Flowerdew, a small businesswoman.
• Matthew Dixon of the Ballarat Courier reports two candidates have nominated for Liberal preselection in Ballarat, held for Labor by Catherine King: Nick Shady, a farmer and mental health advocate, and Sarah Wade, a lawyer. The report also says the Nationals are planning to field candidates in all Labor-held Victorian regional seats, which is to say Ballarat, Bendigo and McEwen.
UPDATE: Channel Seven in Adelaide has results of a ReachTEL poll from Jamie Briggs’ electorate of Mayo, with better results than he might have feared: a Liberal primary vote of 43.9%, compared with 53.8% at the 2013 election, with Labor on 17.2% and the Nick Xenophon Team on 15.4%. This probably includes an unallocated undecided result of around 8%, suggesting all concerned would in fact be a few points higher – with Briggs close enough to 50% to get him home, even if the NXT got ahead of Labor. A two-party Liberal-versus-Labor result shows Briggs leading 59-41, compared with 62.5-37.5 at the election.
Kevjohnno
That is a failure of the market then. Competition is supposed to reduce the price no matter what the RRP by the manufacturers is. Its the ability to discount that counts even under my mistaken scenario of a cap on max price.
How many times have we heard competition drives down prices?
While the leftwing nellies in Australia wank themselves silly playing pretentious levels of moral grandstanding proclaiming telling a woman she has beautiful eyes is sexual assault… meanwhile in Germany….
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/germany/12082366/German-women-report-string-of-sexual-assaults-by-Arab-and-North-African-men.html
[” Police in Germany are investigating an alarming series of sexual assaults on women trying to celebrate the New Year by large groups of single men “of Arab or North African appearance”.
Authorities in the city of Cologne are to hold a crisis meeting on Tuesday after police described a group of some 1,000 men who took over the area around the main station on New Year’s Eve.
Women were robbed, groped, and had their underwear torn from their bodies, while couples had fireworks thrown at them.
Police have received 90 criminal complaints, around a quarter of them for sexual assault, including one case of rape. “]
TBA
Back with the fear I see. Individuals are individuals until you can say every single immigrant is raping women.
TBA,
He also went the lunge, which she ducked, so she ended up with the slobber on her neck… (that’s what I inferred from early reports that he licked her neck).
TBA
For once you have commented on something that matters.
While I have no idea how true the story is (ie if exaggerated etc,) the reality is that there is growing tension in Germany over the migrants and it might well tear down Merkel.
Germany will now be desparate to get peace in Syria (and other parts of the ME) to avoid more migrants. They will need to be very nice to Turkey, who can turn the flood tap on or off.
Unless Germany/Europe do control the migrants I predict the UK will withdraw from the EU – demand passports etc.
The difference is the far right fringe of the LNP have suffered a monumental rejection by the voting public federally and at state level in Queensland with Abbott and CanDo getting the boot leaving the moderates in a strong position.
The loony right faction of the ALP still retains in control of the party, which sees it struggling at the moment in the polls.
Those repeating that Turnbull is beholden to the far right fringe are peddling rubbish. His process of late is simply to be an inclusive leader when internal decisions re mp’s are concerned.
[“TBA
Back with the fear I see. Individuals are individuals until you can say every single immigrant is raping women.”]
Germany didn’t have this problem before.
They are importing into their country big problems and they only have themselves to blame. There will be those who try and cover up the truth because they don’t like the consequences of their agenda.
Rex
You may not have noticed. The loony right decline in the ALP has started. ALP has accepted marriage equality a symbolic issue that defined the power base to the public.
Mr Shorten won that one.
CTar1 at 150
“The rule is never launch an investigation into something that could be detrimental to you or that you already know what the result will be.”
Agreed, & that is why I think they actually know who did it & it would be a person who brings further problems down upon Turnbull.
[Those repeating that Turnbull is beholden to the far right fringe are peddling rubbish.]
So where is the ETS, SSM vote, Republic push? How is abandoning Gonski funding, and cutting pathology funding for bulk billing pap-smear’s a great leap toward the centre?
This piece linked this morning is a good one
Brough, Briggs and now Dutton: as if one Christmas turkey wasn’t enough.
When the Turnbull government waited a month to dump ministers Mal Brough and Jamie Briggs in the silly season, Opposition leader-in-waiting Tanya Plibersek accused them of “taking out the trash” while no one noticed. If that was their strategy, they were badly advised. Far from being too busy to notice, we were too bored not to. Plus now it seems the job was incomplete; Peter Dutton, too, should have been put out for recycling.
Let’s be clear. This is not about personality. It’s about calibre. We won’t know until post-election whether Turnbull has the moral fibre to turn IQ into true leadership. But here what’s in doubt is his judgment. The federal ministry, personally chosen by Turnbull, seems disproportionately populated by gropers, leakers, fibbers, fools, frauds, dickheads and dopes.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/comment/taking-out-the-trash-is-a-job-half-done-for-malcolm-turnbull-20160105-glzw8f.html#ixzz3wWO7ez94
Follow us: @smh on Twitter | sydneymorningherald on Facebook
Rex Douglas
Not that you had much credibility to start with, but as Question as shown @160, you are talking crap
victoria
The problem with that is the writer assumes we cannot make a judgement about IQ and moral fibre until after the election.
I disagree. I think the very things quoted by the writer proves we can make that judgement now.
[guytaur
Posted Thursday, January 7, 2016 at 1:04 pm | Permalink
Kevjohnno
That is a failure of the market then. Competition is supposed to reduce the price no matter what the RRP by the manufacturers is. Its the ability to discount that counts even under my mistaken scenario of a cap on max price. ]
Of course it is a failure. That is why it is a pet hate.
ABCNews24: The Acting Leader of the Opposition Penny Wong is due to speak to the media shortly.
Watch live: https://t.co/FlRWJAIwAW
Oh my, the things I am hearing in Mayo St, Planet Hard Right. Cory getting involved and a lot of disenchantment with the removal of Abbott coming to the surface.
This could be a pandoras can of worms (thanks to GG for that line).
TBA
“While the leftwing nellies in Australia wank themselves silly playing pretentious levels of moral grandstanding proclaiming telling a woman she has beautiful eyes is sexual assault… meanwhile in Germany….”
Funny how people can read the same thing but gain different meanings. For me, it shows what can happen if a culture or group ignores sexual harassment at an early stage. It evolves into something far worse.
Kevjohnno
No its not a failure. The discounts are happening. You are just whining about some marketing trying to fool the public into thinking they are getting a greater discount than they are.
Truth is you can put the RRP for a $10 book at $300. It will still get discounted to $10 as customers refuse to pay the $300
guytuar @153
How helpful is that attitude at protecting our vulnerable?
Certain segments of our population will always be more likely to commit certain crimes than others – we need to be aware of what those segments are so that appropriate actions can be taken.
LGH
Its more helpful than using fear to drum up racist hate.
Treat the criminals as the criminals they are. Its what the law is for.
Rex @ 156
It appears that you are trying to be a true postmodernist. Your ability to mix reality (elections) with virtual representations (polling) is marvellous. Sadly for you, real postmodernists can tell the difference between reality and verisimilitude.
[Certain segments of our population will always be more likely to commit certain crimes than others – we need to be aware of what those segments are so that appropriate actions can be taken.]
And how would you describe those ‘segments’ and what actions do you think would be appropriate?
TBA @157
Absolutely here, here.
Far too many people on the left live lives with ears and minds closed to evidence that points to unforeseen ill-consequences of their policy prescriptions.
Often the left has eyes that see what the right misses (and this is why they are often right), but because of this they close their minds to when the right sees things they have missed, as in their opinion, they always get it right and the right always gets it wrong.
Closed minded ideologues the majority of them.
Senator Wong Presser now.
[Absolutely here, here]
Does the Troll have your address, LGH?
guytaur@124
It came about when retail price maintenance was outlawed.
With retail price maintenance, wholesalers would not supply any retailer who broke ranks and sold for less that the approved retail price.
IIRC one of the factors that brought an end to it was an ACTU owned department store in Melbourne which sold for less than the approved retail price and sparked a court action.
Penny Wong presser now
Thus spake the guru of retailing known as Guytaur.
Using his very own morality and IQ index, Guytaur is a Forrest Gump. High on morality. Low on IQ.
Guytaur they are not giving you any discount. Just telling you they are. This apparently keeps some customers in blissful ignorance so this marketing ruse works very well for both the retailer & manufacturer.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jan/07/nauru-police-say-alleged-abuse-of-child-refugee-is-being-properly-investigated?CMP=soc_568
Dutton really needs to sacked as he can’t provide safe RPC’s.
GG
Thus spoke the personal attacker.
Kevjohno
They are giving you a discount. Its just not the discount you want. Answer is simple. Do not buy.
Penny Wong – “Barnaby is entertaining but he is erratic” Ain’t it the truth!
TPOF @ 172
It is not for me to call out the segments… it is appropriate for those with extensive information gathering apparatus to do so and make the information public so that the population may make informed decisions as to which policies to support.
The trouble with our current environment (and that in Germany) is that the authorities are not prepared to make the data public (or even to dare collect it) because of the opprobrium that will be heaped on them by social justice warriors and the possible negative consequences for some of the groups within the country.
Here I side with the opinion, treat criminals as criminals, if by making data public (say on crimes rates amongst new immigrants) it caused a reaction that crimes were committed against immigrants then the perpetrators of those crimes should be dealt with.
Keeping the population ignorant by hiding from facts (to protect other people) is not the right recipe for civilisation in my opinion.
Harshly dealing with people who attack the innocent (whether they be immigrant populations of native citizens) is.
In other words rather than put the emphasis on protecting immigrants by stopping profiling I believe the emphasis should be placed on protecting native populations by using profiling where appropriate and by dealing harshly with anyone who uses profiling to interfere with the rights of an innocent individual.
guytaur@132
WRONG.
bemused
I gave a mea culpa
Guytaur,
Someone has to cut through your web of bullyshit.
Price is an offer of sale. A customer can make an offer of purchase. It’s as simple as that.
“This could be a pandoras can of worms (thanks to GG for that line).”
Pandora’s Box of Hammers.
GG
No BS. I admitted I was wrong. I did this quite fast and not after hours of debate.
I went and checked and stopped asserting an incorrect fact.
How is this BS?
guytaur,
From your subsequent posts, it was a very Chris Gayley sort of mea culpa.
Was speaking to friend who has a nearly direct line to a senior adviser to a minister and apparently they are getting VERY bad feedback from interest groups…
Tom.
GG
So you assert the unions did not campaign to stop consumers being ripped off with so many mentioning Bob Hawke setting up the Melbourne store to discount and noting that fact is a Chris Gayley sort of mea culpa do you?
I disagree.
guytaur,
More of your bullyshit.
I did not assert any such thing. I never mentioned it at all.
Guytaur I’m sure you’re a savvy shopper. Can you let me know where I can get a good discount on a rug?
Sorry reposting due to bad edit.
So the unions did not campaign to stop consumers being ripped off with so many mentioning Bob Hawke setting up the Melbourne store to discount and noting that fact is a Chris Gayley sort of mea culpa do you?
I disagree.
Tom,
Is that about anything in particular or everything in general?
TBA @152 – I am not sure what point you are making*.
There have been serious crimes committed in Germany on New Year’s Eve. Obviously it is imperative that the German authorities investigate, identify and charge the perpetrators and have them prosecuted to the full extent of the law. Germany being a peaceful democracy with strong rule of law, I expect that is what will happen.
In Australian, an elite sportsman acted like a boofhead. His livelihood depends upon his ability to spin money for his employers, which in turn depends upon his continuing to be admired by his audience. He is being dealt with, to his cost. Nothing to do with events in Germany.
Meanwhile, two Australian Cabinet Ministers have acted in ways that fall well short of what the Australian public has a right to expect. One has been dealt with, one has been slapped on the wrist with a wet lettuce. Not as serious as what happened in Germany, but unlike the events in Germany, it is the Prime Minister’s job to deal with it and he hasn’t.
* actually I am – something like “non-Whites are bad – you can only trust the Liberals to keep them out”. That might go over better in the Daily Rupert than here.
Arrgghhh I did it again.
So you assert that noting the fact the unions did campaign to stop consumers being ripped off with so many mentioning Bob Hawke setting up the Melbourne store to discount and noting that fact is a Chris Gayley sort of mea culpa do you?
I disagree.
Third time lucky.
My sincere apologies for the bad editing.
KevJohnno, you’re bald?