Essential Research: 52-48 to Coalition; Morgan: 57.5-42.5

Another two pollsters close their accounts for the year, with both recording moves to the Coalition.

Essential Research’s final result for the year moves slightly back in line with the rest of the pack, with the Coalition lead up a point on the fortnightly rolling average to 52-48. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up one to 45%, Labor down one to 35%, and the Greens down one to 10%. Respondents were also asked to rate six leading politicians as good or poor, which found Malcolm Turnbull leading the field on 50% good and 17% poor, Julie Bishop performing strongly on 43% good and 21% poor, and Scott Morrison doing less well on 22% good and 25% poor. Richard Di Natale came in at 16% good and 28% poor, but the real stragglers were Bill Shorten at 14% good and 44% poor, and especially Clive Palmer, rated good by 8% and poor by 60%. The appointment of Joe Hockey as ambassador to the United States records 33% approval and 42% disapproval. The poll also finds no clear view as to whether the Coalition government has been higher or lower spending than Labor, with 22% for higher, 21% for lower and 23% for about the same.

Meanwhile at Roy Morgan, the already huge lead for the Coalition blows out still further, with the Coalition up 1.5% on the primary vote to 48%, Labor down by the same amount to 27% and the Greens up half a point to 14.5%. On the headline respondent-allocated measure of two-party preferred, the Coalition lead is out from 56-44 to 57.5-42.5, while previous election preferences have it out from 55-45 to 56-44.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

424 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Coalition; Morgan: 57.5-42.5”

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  1. 207

    There would have to be either a House only or DD election called pretty much immediately and a very fast trigger in order for there to be the possibility of an August DD because there cannot be a DD election involving the current HoR after the 16th of July 2016 because of the 6 month rule.

  2. MTBW@246

    bemused

    And that is the problem and why we have some dimwits in the Party.

    Yes, it certainly narrows the gene-pool of talent.

    We only had one person nominate for my electorate. Now why was that?

  3. Darn

    I agree. Aged care is a VERY sensitive issue and certain to trigger emotional and angry reactions.

    Labor should play this one well. Vote winner.

  5. [251
    Tom the first and best…

    there cannot be a DD election involving the current HoR after the 16th of July 2016 because of the 6 month rule.]

    The House expires (by the effluxion of time) on 11 November 2016. Therefore the last possible date on which the Senate can be dissolved for a DD is 11 May 2016, the day after the budget is scheduled to be delivered. This has to be considered to be a likely date for an early dissolution, leading to an election on 11 June.

    The other likely date for an election is March 12, following the tabling of the WA re-distribution when Parliament returns, currently scheduled for 2 Feb. An election could be held on the new WA boundaries and by applying a “mini-redistribution” in NSW. This provision exists for exactly the circumstances that will apply in early 2016.

    The full NSW redistribution is due to be gazetted on 25 Feb 2106 and tabled shortly afterwards. Because the NSW redistribution is extensive, the new redistributed rolls would take several weeks to compile, meaning a dissolution likely could not occur until mid-March. An election called on the redistributed NSW boundaries could not be held until late April. There would not be enough time to have an election, prepare a budget and bring back a new Parliament following an election in late April so an early election on the new NSW boundaries must be considered very unlikely.

    If there’s a DD, it will be either on 5 March or, more likely, 12 March, or, most likely, on 11 June.

    There is almost no chance whatsoever of an early election that would not be a DD.

    If I were in the PM’s boots, I would call a DD on the first possible day in March.

  7. FFS –

    [ A black protestor who interrupted a Donald Trump rally was threatened with being “lit on fire” while trying to interrupt the Republican presidential candidate’s speech.

    Video footage of the incident, captured by BuzzFeed, shows the protester, Ender Austin III, being restrained by security officers, while a man in the crowd shouts “light the motherf***er on fire”. ]

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/donald-trump-protestor-dragged-from-rally-as-man-shouts-light-the-motherfer-on-fire-a6773771.html

  8. The Coalition rules only for profit-making. They have no soul and have no understanding of culture.

    Crikey:
    [It’s been a dreadful week for the arts in Australia. After two years of consecutive cuts to the arts budget the sector was dealt another blow yesterday with a further $52.5 million cut over the next four years, announced in the Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook. The newly formed Book Council has been scrapped, galleries and museums are losing funding, and Screen Australia is suffering its third funding cut in 18 months (while the government splashes out the cash to attract Hollywood producers to Australia).]

  9. [“Video footage of the incident, captured by BuzzFeed, shows the protester, Ender Austin III, being restrained by security officers, while a man in the crowd shouts “light the motherf***er on fire”.”]

    Same thing happened at the extreme-left protests at Cronulla on Saturday.

    Whats the difference… other than this one making the news?

  12. [Victoria’s first wave power unit has been installed off the state’s south-west coast as part of a 12-month trial to make the sector commercially viable.

    Developer BioPower Systems deployed the 26-metre prototype west of Port Fairy on Tuesday.

    It was one of about 20 sites worldwide to be identified for a prospective wave power station.

    If successful, the $21 million project is expected to feed 250 kilowatts of power into the national grid.

    Chief executive of the company Dr Timothy Finnigan said it could turn a corner for the industry.

    “This is somewhat of a breakthrough in ocean energy, because it converts it straight into grid quality electricity,” he said.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-12-16/victorias-first-wave-power-unit-installed-off-port-fairy-coast/7032888

  13. Yesterday’s Mumble on Abbott’s likely legacy:

    [Throughout his political career, Abbott has had a tendency to publicly quote or reference ideologically friendly newspaper reports and opinions, particularly from News Corp outlets. No account of his fall should ignore the role of these supporters in the media, who trilled and cooed at every “death cult” warning, marvelled as he “stood up to Putin,” joined him in every bash at the ABC, and egged on each and every muscular insertion into the culture wars.

    Abbott’s enemies keep underestimating him, the gang gushed after each odd utterance. In projecting their own preoccupations onto the voting community they did him no favours.

    Now that he’s gone, some in his praetorian guard concede that he could have turned the ideology down a notch or several, resorted to fewer slogans, used bigger words and moved his attention to the political centre.

    But now, in their continuing loyalty, they’re at it again, encouraging him further down another blind alley with his counterproductive ruminations on Islam, Reformation and the superiority of Western values. In applying a culture warrior’s solution to the practical problem of jihadist violence, he’s not saying anything clever or useful – just the opposite. Real friends wouldn’t facilitate behaviour in a loved one that is so destructive to his legacy. ]
    http://insidestory.org.au/rooster-one-day-feather-duster-the-next

    He should just stfu or retire from parliament.

  14. [ What a turn-up for the books: a big spending, big taxing Liberal party

    A core philosophy of Malcolm Turnbull and the Liberal party is big government. This is shown in policies that deliver high government spending and high taxation. As well as a clear inability to get the budget anywhere near surplus because of this disposition to spending, this is one of the highlights from Scott Morrison’s midyear economic and fiscal outlook for 2015-16.

    …Under Turnbull, government spending will increase by 2% in real terms (which allows for inflation) in 2015-16. In each of the following three years, spending will continue to grow at a rapid clip. As a share of GDP, government spending will be at or above 25.3% in each and every year out to 2018-19, a fact that should once and for all smash the perception that the Liberal party is for “small government” with a lower rate of interference in the functioning of the economy than Labor.

    The facts are clear.

    …The previous Labor government….spending below 25% of GDP in three of the years it was in office. As a result, government spending averaged just 24.9% of GDP during its full term of office, which is 0.7% ($12bn in today’s dollar terms) less a year on average than under the current government.

    …The big spending embraced by the Turnbull government is fundamentally the reason why the budget surplus has been pushed out

    …Indeed, the Myefo confirms that tax revenue will rise to 23.1% of GDP in 2018-19, which is well above any level of tax that Labor has exceeded only twice in the past 65 years. Not Whitlam, nor Keating, nor Rudd, nor Gillard ever taxed this high. The only government to have a higher tax to GDP ratio was John Howard, who exceeded this rate in eight of his years in office.

    The budget update puts paid to the conventional wisdom that the Liberals believe in and deliver small government. The facts prove the exact opposite. ]

    http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/dec/15/what-a-turn-up-for-the-books-a-big-spending-big-taxing-liberal-party

  15. Bernard Keane in today’s Crikey email:

    [Scott Morrison — who now has falling commodity prices driving his revenue down, even though the dollar is in the low US$0.70 range — is stuck with the same problem as Swan at the end of 2012: despite falling revenue, he doesn’t dare cut spending more because of its impact on the economy. But Morrison’s position is worse: while Swan had already done a lot of cutting to get spending below 25%, while Morrison has arrived at the crease with spending rising to over 26% of GDP; the cuts announced yesterday are merely to get spending back to where it was supposed to be back in May: 25.9% of GDP. That’s still higher than 2013-14, into which Joe Hockey piled extra spending after the election in an effort to make Labor’s fiscal management look worse.

    In short, Morrison’s problem is significantly worse because he’s following Joe Hockey, not Wayne Swan.

    The other difference is that Morrison unsurprisingly resembles Swan in his early days as Treasurer — nervy, clunky and unsure in his delivery. His performance yesterday — where in effect Mathias Cormann babysat him — was poor, especially with that wretched car trip analogy that represented a new low in politicians’ efforts to compare household activities to government budgeting. It was not the kind of performance that would assure either voters or investors that the government had a handle on fiscal policy.

    One thing Morrison does have going for him, though, is that Labor appeared unsure about which angle to take on the blowout — criticise the government for spending cuts or criticise it for fiscal mismanagement. Unlike Morrison, Labor accepts that there’s a revenue problem and has taken the politically brave option of putting forward revenue measures to deal with it. But spending can’t stay at its current levels either, especially with the economy gaining “momentum”, as Morrison claimed yesterday. Wayne Swan got spending below 25% of GDP; both sides need to seek to emulate him.]

  16. [The budget update puts paid to the conventional wisdom that the Liberals believe in and deliver small government.]

    I have said this for many years now. The Howard govt record put paid to the notion of Liberal party = small government.

  17. I had a super cell storm hit my place 9 years ago (it seems like yesterday). I was driving and was lucky to be alive. Trees falling everywhere.

  18. That’ll teach me.

    I have a small USD account with Commsec. I transferred some money (about AUD$35,000) from AUD to USD the other day in preparation for a payout to an overseas supplier who charges in USD.

    JUST FOR FUN, I decided to get a quote on a large amount, never intending to do the trade. So I put in that I wanted to buy USD$1 million, to see if the rate got better for large contracts.

    Talk about ring the fire brigade!

    I got three calls in quick succession. One from the Commsec currency trading desk asking if I was serious. One from my bank asking if I was serious. And one from Commonwealth Bank Security, wanting to know what the hell was going on. I’d only made an enquiry, not confirmed the trade (and I was never going to as I don’t have a million dollars lying around to speculate with).

    For a horrible minute there I thought I must have pressed the “ACCEPT RATE” button accidentally, rather than just the “REQUEST RATE” button. If you press “ACCEPT” you’re committed, legally. If you don’t have the money, then go sell your house. Commsec doesn’t care. You’re liable for it. They’ll send the boys around if you give any trouble.

    Sheesh… talk about start a panic! And that was just an enquiry.

    Anyway, I’ve learnt my lesson. These guys work on hair triggers. Milliseconds count. Don’t mess with them. Don’t fiddle. Don’t pretend.

    For the record, the rate was the same. If you want a better rate, then you phone the guy on the trading desk, who helpfully gave me his number (although I told him I didn’t want the damn thing). I guess it’s never too late for him to drum up some future business, even from a penurious mug like me.

  19. 255

    The inability to dissolve Parliament with a DD after the 11th of May 2016 is the reason the election cannot be held after the 16th of July because of the maximum campaign length.

    Holding the election after the 1st of July (probably on the 2nd but also possibly the 9th or 16th) avoids shorter Senate terms and the risk of there being a constitutional dispute over when the Senate terms start as the High Court/Court of Disputed returns could quite conceivably, if asked, rule that the day of a Senator`s election is the day of the declaration of polls not polling day. Such a question is particularly likely to arise if the election is held on the 18th or 25th of June but could easily arise for the 11th of June, especially if there is a recount.

    http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2015/12/the-turnbull-governments-options-for-a-2016-election.html#more

  20. Fess

    I’d rather he stick around and whiteant turnbull plus start as many fights as he can 🙂

    [ He should just stfu or retire from parliament. ]

  21. MTBW #250

    [I am sick to death of only selecting previously administrators of the Head Office geniuses and Union hacks.

    We need more like Dreyfus in the party.]

    Indeed, although it should be noted how Dreyfus became an MP in the first place:

    [In March 2006, Dreyfus successfully challenged the sitting Labor member for Isaacs, Ann Corcoran, for the right to contest the 2007 election. Although Corcoran won a majority of votes in the local ballot, Dreyfus, a member of the Labor Unity faction, had a large majority of supporters on the party’s Public Office Selection Committee, and thus won the overall vote.]

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Dreyfus#Parliamentary_career

  22. I listened to Morrison last night, perhaps its just me but he doesn’t come across as credible, still aggressive but empty. His manner of ignoring Leigh Sales didn’t sound clever, by ignoring the obvious, it simply confirmed what many believe about him.

    Furthermore, Sales confirmed what most bludgers already know, that an ALP government would never be given such leeway by the media, herself included.

  24. Shorten did well today. He got his Morrison does not know where he is going quote into the high rotation of the news.

    It was an excellent presser going for over ten minutes but all the media shows is that one line.

    So any saying that its Shorten not cutting through needs their head read. Its always the government failure not the LOTO cutting through.

    As has been proved you have to be mad as a cut snake to cut through as LOTO.

  26. Looks like Labor are taking this low Greens-sledging a bit further, crowdfunding to spread elaborate myths about Greens position on corporate tax-cheats. It’s pretty easy to set people straight with the facts if they get in touch, but most will make the mistake of trusting Labor’s word and not fact checking. Thankfully they seem to be taking aim for inner Sydney, where the Greens have the capacity to respond and where people have been burned by Labor enough already.

    It is a bit sad if they have to try this hard to mislead people to get votes back from the Greens. Surely there are genuine policy differences to have a serious campaign about. I hope the cooler heads in Labor prevail.

  28. Millennial

    Thanks for that info was not aware!

    He does have a lot of class and a smart brain and manner.

    Why the apparatchiks from places like Head Office are appointed just because it was “their turn” annoys the hell out of me. I am fed up with the Matt Thistlethwaites getting seats in the Parliament and probably a job for life.

  29. Fess

    He will go about it the only way he knows – full aggression.

    In the past that has done as much damage to himself as to others and thats fine with me.

    Most people see him as a nutter and Australia’s worst PM who basically has nowhere else to go.

    Who in their right mind would employ him – he is not longer of any use even to the likes of murdoch – one of the few with deep enough pockets to give him a job – but why bother.

    Those in the community he seeks to make scapegoats know all of this.

    He had a chance he should never have been give – and he blew it big time.

    He must be seething about it all.

    Not a bad Chrissy present to many people. 🙂

  33. MTBW

    I do too. From what I have seen of the UN Secretary Role most of it would suit Mr Rudd. He would not have the problems he had as PM.

    However that is viewed from a distance and the reality may be different. However Rudd as Sec Gen would enhance Australia’s reputation so damaged by the Abbott years.

  34. There have been a few some UN Secretary-Generals I’ve been impressed with. I can’t imagine Kevin Rudd being one of them. Granted, though, he’d be better than Mr Abbott.

  35. PG
    [Looks like Labor are taking this low Greens-sledging a bit further, crowdfunding to spread elaborate myths about Greens position on corporate tax-cheats]
    Just more of the usual tactics from the political duopoly who want to maintain the political status quo.

    Not really surprising as Dastyari, one of the brain trusts behind Labor’s political strategy, has for years said, and reiterated recently, wtte that the kid gloves have to come off when dealing with the Greens.

  39. [Five Credible Alternatives to the Australian Flag

    Fellow Western Sydney University researcher Dr Benjamin T. Jones (School of Humanities and Communication Arts) is undertaking a survey to find out Australian’s attitudes to their flag and how they would feel if it was to be changed.

    The Alternative Australian Flag Survey has been designed by Dr Jones as part of a larger Australian Research Council funded project looking at Australian national symbols. Partly inspired by the recent two-stage flag referendum in New Zealand, this survey asks participants to choose their favourite flag from five popular alternative designs. The research will shed light on opinions and attitudes towards a new flag and offer broader commentary on the changing representation of Australianness.]

    http://www.westernsydney.edu.au/ics/news_and_media/news/2015/five_credible_alternatives_to_the_australian_flag

  40. Pity about my local MP Anna Burke who currently holds the marginal electorate of Chisholm.

    There would be some people within Labor who would be glad to see the back of her as she was a fierce public critic of her party’s asylum seeker policy.

    No doubt she will continue to be an advocate for more humane and compassionate treatment of asylum seekers.

    With her departure, there is a high probability Chisholm will now be a Liberal gain.

  42. CE @272,

    For some reason I also watched Morrison last night and had exactly the same impression. Verbal acreage with a extra dose of blather.

    His self confidence was either genuine delusion or the same cover technique Joe Hockey used.

    He didn’t really make a case for anything, something about a road trip…

  43. MTBW

    [ I agree with guytaur I think a lot of you on here give Rudd a rough ride and I am not sure why so many rubbish him. ]

    Rudd is the antithesis of what is needed in a UN leader – he is egotistical, arrogant, divisive and autocratic. He couldn’t lead his cabinet, his caucus, his party or his country – how could anyone believe he could possibly lead the UN?

  46. [“Shorten did well today. He got his Morrison does not know where he is going quote into the high rotation of the news.”]

    Are we there yet Dad?!! 🙂

    Don’t worry kids, the adults are driving now. Be quiet in the back seat please and buckle up.

  47. P1

    I have heard all of this stuff over and over again I don’t have any idea about what the source of the problem was and don’t really care.

    He got rid of Howard and that will do me.

  50. TBA! Back from work already, get back there. Someone has to earn a wage (no penalty rates mind you, don’t want to hurt the profitability of companies in my super portfolio) and pay the taxes we all depend on.

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