Essential Research: 52-48 to Coalition; Morgan: 57.5-42.5

Another two pollsters close their accounts for the year, with both recording moves to the Coalition.

Essential Research’s final result for the year moves slightly back in line with the rest of the pack, with the Coalition lead up a point on the fortnightly rolling average to 52-48. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up one to 45%, Labor down one to 35%, and the Greens down one to 10%. Respondents were also asked to rate six leading politicians as good or poor, which found Malcolm Turnbull leading the field on 50% good and 17% poor, Julie Bishop performing strongly on 43% good and 21% poor, and Scott Morrison doing less well on 22% good and 25% poor. Richard Di Natale came in at 16% good and 28% poor, but the real stragglers were Bill Shorten at 14% good and 44% poor, and especially Clive Palmer, rated good by 8% and poor by 60%. The appointment of Joe Hockey as ambassador to the United States records 33% approval and 42% disapproval. The poll also finds no clear view as to whether the Coalition government has been higher or lower spending than Labor, with 22% for higher, 21% for lower and 23% for about the same.

Meanwhile at Roy Morgan, the already huge lead for the Coalition blows out still further, with the Coalition up 1.5% on the primary vote to 48%, Labor down by the same amount to 27% and the Greens up half a point to 14.5%. On the headline respondent-allocated measure of two-party preferred, the Coalition lead is out from 56-44 to 57.5-42.5, while previous election preferences have it out from 55-45 to 56-44.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

424 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Coalition; Morgan: 57.5-42.5”

Comments Page 7 of 9
1 6 7 8 9
  1. Keep those totally wrong calls coming –

    [ TrueBlueAussie

    Posted Wednesday, February 4, 2015 at 8:05 pm | Permalink

    IF Abbott was going to be rolled… it would have happened already. ]

    [ TrueBlueAussie
    Posted Friday, July 17, 2015 at 8:18 am | Permalink

    as predicted Choppergate is yesterdays poll bludgers newspaper clippings. ]

  2. shellbell@303

    I normally get a credit card security call whenever I buy clothes

    it’s evidently regarded as unusual expenditure

    If you go overseas, make sure that you tell all your credit card suppliers.

    Otherwise you get there, you try to hire a car, for example, and the transaction is refused.

  3. dave@302

    Keep those totally wrong calls coming –

    TrueBlueAussie

    Posted Wednesday, February 4, 2015 at 8:05 pm | Permalink

    IF Abbott was going to be rolled… it would have happened already.


    TrueBlueAussie
    Posted Friday, July 17, 2015 at 8:18 am | Permalink

    as predicted Choppergate is yesterdays poll bludgers newspaper clippings.

    Why, oh why, do you give this idiot oxygen?

    Ignore the bastard. Life is too short.

  4. Question at 292

    “His self confidence was either genuine delusion or the same cover technique Joe Hockey used.

    He didn’t really make a case for anything, something about a road trip…”

    Agreed, in fact, I remember thinking he was no more convincing than Hockey, & that is saying something.

  5. Over the years PB has closed down over the silly season – and for good reason.

    Maybe the time has come – early – as all I seen in the last few posts is a few gems and a lot of dross.

  6. Tricot@313

    Over the years PB has closed down over the silly season – and for good reason.

    Maybe the time has come – early – as all I seen in the last few posts is a few gems and a lot of dross.

    Life is mainly froth and bubble
    Two things stand like stone —
    Kindness in another’s trouble.
    Courage in your own.

    Adam Lindsay Gordon

  7. So this is Christmas
    And what have you done
    Another year over
    And a new one just begun

    And so this is Christmas
    I hope you have fun
    The near and the dear ones
    The old and the young

    A very merry Christmas
    And a happy New Year
    Let’s hope it’s a good one
    Without any fear

    And so this is Christmas
    For weak and for strong
    For rich and the poor ones
    The world is so wrong

    And so happy Christmas
    For black and for white
    For yellow and red ones
    Let’s stop all the fight

    A very merry Christmas
    And a happy New Year
    Let’s hope it’s a good one
    Without any fear

    And so this is Christmas
    And what have we done
    Another year over
    And a new one just begun

    And so this is Christmas
    I hope you have fun
    The near and the dear one
    The old and the young

    A very merry Christmas

    And a happy New Year
    Let’s hope it’s a good one
    Without any fear

    War is over over
    If you want it
    War is over
    Now…

  8. P1
    “Rudd is the antithesis of what is needed in a UN leader – he is egotistical, arrogant, divisive and autocratic. He couldn’t lead his cabinet, his caucus, his party or his country – how could anyone believe he could possibly lead the UN?”

    Rudd couldn’t lead a kid’s toy on a string.
    That’s apart from being a traitorous, self absorbed little prick.

    One of these days I might say what I really think ….

  9. I think you might find that Scotty Morrison has been employed for the politics, not the political nous that a true Treasurer, across the economic brief, would bring to the job.

    The only brush with the word ‘Economics’ in Scotty’s life prior to his recent appointment was in conjunction with the word ‘Geography’. I studied Economic Geography for my HSC and I know I could never have sat the Economics exam as well with the knowledge that studying Economic Geography tangentially gave me by way of insight and understanding of Economics.

    At least Tony Abbott and Joe Hockey studied Economics/Law at Sydney University, and so their policies were theoretically as well as ideologically-based.

    Anyone with more than half a clue about Economics would have been able to see Morrison yesterday reading from notes when it came to the more technical parts of his spiel. Clunky political analogies, not a problem.

    My guess is Matthias Cormann did most of the MYEFO legwork, maybe even with some input from Morrison’s mentor, Peter Costello, and, of course, plenty of hand-holding from Treasury. Scotty worked on the politics, as he glibly admitted to Leigh Sales last night about the Coalition’s general modus operandi for getting into government. Asylum Seekers, Economy – Same, same.

    Which brings me to my substantial point. That unless Scott Morrison crams over the holidays, then he’s going to end up being led by the nose by Treasury and he won’t be able to say ‘No’ to some of their more grandiose and unrealistic ideas. Because he doesn’t speak their lingua franca. It’s all Dutch to him. As it’s painfully obvious for all to see.

    Paul Keating mastered the Treasury brief despite having no formal education in the subject, but he naturally gravitated to it from the get-go and made damn sure he got on top of it. Scott Morrison is no Paul Keating. Not as far as I can see.

  10. [“I like socialising with my staff and encouraging them to become friends as well as employees — it makes for a much more productive workforce overall.

    “The company started in a bedroom and it’s now worth $521 million (£250 million), it just proves that the better you treat staff, the better it is for the business.”]

    Here’s boss who would never be invited to Gina’s, IPA or Liberal Christmas Party.

    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/business/work/naps-dj-sets-a-bar-and-icerink-for-staff-is-this-the-worlds-coolest-boss/story-fnkjjaih-1227645897430

  11. [“I suppose it is Christmas and you have to feel sorry for the guy. “]

    Fairfax…. will they get over Abbott in 2016?

    They truly are pathetic.

  12. Ha ha! Of course. 😀

    [Andrew Elder ‏@awelder 3h3 hours ago
    No objection to Pyne, BBishop, Wilson, Loughnane etc going on a junket. It’s the prospect of them coming back that worries me]

  13. Apart from calling the Chinese ratfwackers remember Kevin’s other big moment on the international scene. Now how did that work out ? Failed state , source of huge quantities of looted arms sent/sold to the head choppers in Syria and Iraq , heavenly spot for people smugglers

    [Looking a little lonely on bombing Libya

    The Australian Foreign Minister Kevin Rudd was very quick off the mark to advocate the gung-ho policy of imposing a no-fly zone over Libya but he, along with British Prime Minister David Cameron who was of the same mind, is looking a little lonely in his advocacy ….general James Mattis on Tuesday that enforcing a no-fly zone over Libya would first require bombing the north African nation’s air defence systems.]
    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/thestump/2011/03/02/looking-a-little-lonely-on-bombing-libya/

  14. “Fairfax… will they get over Abbott in 2016?”

    To hell with Fairfax – their so-called journos deserve all the retrenchments they get – right up there with Moloch.

    It’ll take Australia years to get over the damage rAbbott and Hockey did – with a further dose from The Member for Net Worth, Lord Velveteen Ballcup, but TBA is far too stupid to be able to comprehend that.

    “Are we there yet?” is as good as it gets for TBA.

  15. cat,

    I always thought that Morrison was the weak link in Turnbull’s armoury.

    Turnbull needed him to get the position of PM. Since then he’s been dumped on by his “ideological fellow travellers” and has been underwhelming in his new job.

    He’ll need to get organised over the break or a diplomatic posting to Indonesia could be in the offing.

  16. MTBW@288

    Sohar

    I agree with guytaur I think a lot of you on here give Rudd a rough ride and I am not sure why so many rubbish him.

    Words like ‘stupidity’ and ‘envy’ spring to mind.

  17. The balanced ABC will prbobably have to have a first anniversary commemoration day for the knifing of PM Abbott to remind us about all the treachery and backstabbing and stuff like they did for PM Rudd

  18. By the way, I associate OZemail with the dialup era – as do many Australians.

    The ALP could use this: do an ad with that awful old dial-up connection sound over the top of “innovative” Malcolm waffling on as usual

    voice over: “Malcolm Turnbull says he’s wants Australia to be innvoative. But he’s using copper technology from 1910 for our modern internet. thats why we have some of the lowest interent speeds in the world.

    We need the NBN – the highway to Australia’s future jobs.”

    etc , this shit writes itself,. Where are the ideas, ALP? Kick him one in the gooolies over this crap.

  19. The Pathology incentive payment is worth $3 per visit.

    Yet Labor and the AMA are screaming the sky is falling.

    What a load of horse radish.

  20. “why doesnt Shorto get out there and make comments like this?”

    No one would ever know what Shorten says unless you’re standing next to him, because the worst Media in the World are too busy commenting on rubbish rather than substance, and denigrating Shorten rather than carrying out what they assert they do – reporting what matters to Australians.

    A slowly receding friend has a sub to news.com.au and is indoctrinated with their bullshit. I’m slowly getting through to him but it’s a bit like trying to get TBA to understand – a lot of work for buggerall.

    And really not worth it.

  21. lefty e – It is truly staggering that Turnbull didn’t make a single mention of the NBN in his “innovation” speech. It should have been the centrepiece, but he’s obviously totally embarrassed about the whole thing and just wishes it would disappear into a void.

  22. dave

    [FFS –

    A black protestor who interrupted a Donald Trump rally was threatened with being “lit on fire” while trying to interrupt the Republican presidential candidate’s speech.

    Video footage of the incident, captured by BuzzFeed, shows the protester, Ender Austin III, being restrained by security officers, while a man in the crowd shouts “light the motherf***er on fire”]

    What awful grammar.

  23. the dallas buyers club saga gets a ruling

    In addition to throwing out DBC’s most recent application and ordering the company to pay costs, this morning the Judge set the clock ticking on the entire case.

    “The present application must be dismissed with costs. Some finality must now be brought to these proceedings,” the Judge said.

    “What I will do is make a self-executing order which will terminate the proceedings on Thursday 11 February 2016 at noon, unless DBC takes some step before then.”

    Since DBC has shown an impressive amount of determination since the beginning of proceedings, it wouldn’t be a surprise if the company tried to pull something out of the hat, even at this late stage.

    However, at this point DBC’s position is one of a gambler, heavily down on his luck, losing more money by the second, but still with an eye on the jackpot. Even now it still might be worth doubling down but with the Judge’s patience and now timing running out too, the odds are not looking great.
    Tagged in: australia, Dallas Buyers Club

  24. I noticed that Mr Morrison had to gasp between words during his brilliant exposition of the state of the economy yesterday.

    Apparently we are on the verge of a pathologically circumscribed journey to the distant innovation shore and that will magically snuff out the fuze on our debt bomb.

    Mr Morrison reminded me of a beached pilot whale: lots of huffing and puffing but, unless towed out to sea, cactus.

  25. TBA @ 329,

    ‘ Chris Bowen is no Scott Morrison.

    How many illegals under his watch again? 50,000?’

    Nice line in xenopobic bigotry towards asylum seekers you’ve got going on there, TBA.

    And I’m no bleeding heart when it comes to boat-borne asylum seekers, as those with long memories on PB will remember. However I at least pay them the courtesy of referring to them in ways that do not intimate that they are no better than animals.

    Considering that, given English lessons if they were allowed entry into the country as refugees, a lot of them would soon surpass your own feeble attempts at reasoned discussion, I wonder who would make the better ‘True Blue Aussie’ at the end of the day.

  26. [It is truly staggering that Turnbull didn’t make a single mention of the NBN in his “innovation” speech.]

    If this is true then it isn’t surprising. The Liberals clearly don’t regard FTTP as being an innovation leverage or critical support infrastructure.

    They are about protecting vested interests not the national interest.

Comments Page 7 of 9
1 6 7 8 9

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *