Essential Research: 52-48 to Coalition; Morgan: 57.5-42.5

Another two pollsters close their accounts for the year, with both recording moves to the Coalition.

Essential Research’s final result for the year moves slightly back in line with the rest of the pack, with the Coalition lead up a point on the fortnightly rolling average to 52-48. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up one to 45%, Labor down one to 35%, and the Greens down one to 10%. Respondents were also asked to rate six leading politicians as good or poor, which found Malcolm Turnbull leading the field on 50% good and 17% poor, Julie Bishop performing strongly on 43% good and 21% poor, and Scott Morrison doing less well on 22% good and 25% poor. Richard Di Natale came in at 16% good and 28% poor, but the real stragglers were Bill Shorten at 14% good and 44% poor, and especially Clive Palmer, rated good by 8% and poor by 60%. The appointment of Joe Hockey as ambassador to the United States records 33% approval and 42% disapproval. The poll also finds no clear view as to whether the Coalition government has been higher or lower spending than Labor, with 22% for higher, 21% for lower and 23% for about the same.

Meanwhile at Roy Morgan, the already huge lead for the Coalition blows out still further, with the Coalition up 1.5% on the primary vote to 48%, Labor down by the same amount to 27% and the Greens up half a point to 14.5%. On the headline respondent-allocated measure of two-party preferred, the Coalition lead is out from 56-44 to 57.5-42.5, while previous election preferences have it out from 55-45 to 56-44.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

424 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Coalition; Morgan: 57.5-42.5”

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  1. Hey Bludgers, I’m looking forward to the ABC’s Liberal version of the Killing Season (Turnbull v Abbott) surely preparations are underway for that in 2016?

  2. Boerwar @ 346,

    ‘ Apparently we are on the verge of a pathologically circumscribed journey to the distant innovation shore and that will magically snuff out the fuze on our debt bomb. ‘

    Apparently the brains trust at Coalition Treasury HQ in ‘The Shire’ haven’t yet worked out that all the innovation and new agile businesses in the world only have a finite number of Australian dollars to extract a profit from. They can’t all be super successful, and Turnbull has admitted as much himself with his comments that he expects the traditional average of ~80% of all new businesses to fail, and here’s some taxpayer’ $ to ease the pain. So it just doesn’t make sense to me that this is going to be the way, in the short term at least, that the nation’s economy will be rescued from the post-Mining Boom slump.

    What with the heat coming out of housing construction and no attention being paid to obvious drains on the budget.

  3. Re AA @322: hour mention of Paul Keating reminds me that Labor has a proud record in Government, including the Economy. Labor needsto reclaim and proclaim its record. There’s a lot to be proud of: the Hawke years, the Keating Prime Ministership and yes, Rudd’s deft handling of the GFC and Gillard’s leglislative record.

    And what do the LNP have to show? Presided over a mining boom aond pissed the proceeds up against the wall in middle class welfare and boosts to rent seekers. In the process wrecking the taxation system national superannuation and Federal support for education. Oh, and they got the racist vote by stopping the boats.

  5. [Hey Bludgers, I’m looking forward to the ABC’s Liberal version of the Killing Season (Turnbull v Abbott) surely preparations are underway for that in 2016?]

    I’m still waiting for that satirical show At Home With Tony that mocks his personal home life.

  6. C@t:

    I’ll be interested to see how the govt handles the release. Since they necked Abbott the govt hasn’t been as gung-ho on TURC as it previously was.

  7. I’m still waiting for that satirical show At Home With Tony

    It would have to be set in the AFP Academy. Maybe a movie. Police Academy 5 (or whatever next number).

  9. [“Nice line in xenopobic bigotry towards asylum seekers you’ve got going on there, TBA.

    And I’m no bleeding heart when it comes to boat-borne asylum seekers, as those with long memories on PB will remember. However I at least pay them the courtesy of referring to them in ways that do not intimate that they are no better than animals.”]

    The term Illegal Immigrant is common usage around the world including in Europe, Old Blimey and the U.S. It’s only in Australia that the precious left have attempted to ban the word.

    Check Google News with the words if you don’t believe me.

    [“Name three of them, TBA.”]

    Here’s a couple: http://www.news.com.au/national/breaking-news/captain-emads-family-still-in-australia/story-e6frfku9-1226473376648

  10. confessions @ 356,

    ‘ I’ll be interested to see how the govt handles the release. Since they necked Abbott the govt hasn’t been as gung-ho on TURC as it previously was.’

    I’m not so sure. What with Attack Poodlette, Michaelia Cash in charge of the IR portfolio I think she’ll relish getting her teeth stuck into it.

  11. C@tmomma

    [ What with Attack Poodlette, Michaelia Cash in charge of the IR portfolio I think she’ll relish getting her teeth stuck into it. ]

    So she might finally find a use for those hollow teeth of hers?

  12. TBA,
    You did not refer to them as ‘Illegal Immigrants’, ducky.

    And anyway, it’s only parties of the Far Right, such as Front Nationale, UKIP, or the Conservatives in election mode under the tutelage of Lynton Crosby, who refer to them in that way. So your point is moot.

  13. C@t:

    TURC hasn’t delivered the power blows to ALP MPs as they obviously thought it would. So far the big losers from TURC have been KJackson, the presiding Commissioner (whose name escapes me) and a couple of other unionists I’ve never heard of before.

  16. tba@359

    The term Illegal Immigrant is common usage around the world including in Europe, Old Blimey and the U.S.

    Gor blimey, where’s “Old Blimey”?

  19. [My Opinions whether you agree with them or not are no more or less important than anyone elses here.

    Everyone gets 1 vote only at the ballot box, though there are those… lets call them the vocal minority… who have a higher opinion of themselves and think they get more say than that 1 vote. They don’t.]

    Essentially a verbose way of saying “I’m thick as shit, and I vote”

  21. C@tmomma 364

    I feel much the same way….I reckon we know who wears the jocks in that household…jeez, as her partner you’d work as overtime as possible and jam knitting needles in your ears

  22. [352
    C@tmomma]

    Innovation has to be one of the hubs of the new economy, for mine. Labor have a very good suite of innovation policies that concentrate on investing in human capital and on supporting enterprise formation and on improving the returns to our existing capital stock. Labor’s policies are also themed around sustainability – a concept that is completely foreign to the Liberals.

  26. ESJ @ 370,

    ‘ do you often get angry or have feelings of rage towards women? ‘

    Compared to what Julia Gillard had to cop from the misogynists like Larry Pickering and Alan Jones, saying a RW harridan of a Minister gives me the heebie jeebies is tame stuff indeed!

    Still, keep working the angles, ESJ, you’ll get there one day. About when Scotty gets to his destination to visit his mate Godot. 🙂

  28. briefly @ 372,

    ‘ Labor’s policies are also themed around sustainability – a concept that is completely foreign to the Liberals.’

    But Malcolm’s have more razzamatazz to the square centimetre, so they must be better!

  30. C@tmomma #376

    [ESJ @ 370

    ‘do you often get angry or have feelings of rage towards women?’

    Compared to what Julia Gillard had to cop from the misogynists like Larry Pickering and Alan Jones, saying a R-W Minister gives me the heebie-jeebies is tame stuff indeed!]

    C@tmomma, I don’t mean to be rude, but aren’t you a woman yourself?

  31. [378
    C@tmomma

    briefly @ 372,

    ‘ Labor’s policies are also themed around sustainability – a concept that is completely foreign to the Liberals.’

    But Malcolm’s have more razzamatazz to the square centimetre, so they must be better!]

    The differences are very clear, as usual. The LNP policies demonstrate they believe in just one thing – money. Labor policies are founded on belief in people. All the money in the world is useless without the talents, imagination and vitality of the people.

    The LNP seek to swap all this for lavish tax concessions – policies that have failed in the past and will fail again.

  35. C@tmomma@158

    K-1-7,
    Like Nathan Rees said, Labor lost a lot of it’s vote when Tradies swapped their Union Ticket for an ABN.

    One of the great con jobs in Oz politics was Howard convincing people that if they have an ABN number to stamp on their tax return then they are one of the hallowed entrepreneurial lifters and deserving of every tax break in sight.

  36. And response by Laurie Ferguson to report linked above. Lol!

    [Laurie Ferguson
    Laurie Ferguson – Verified account ‏@FergusonLMP

    I doubt BIC Services exposed for exploitation of workers by the 7.30 Report will be terrified by Michaela Cash’s dire threats to pursue them]

  38. Steve777@357 and CTar1@358

    Can we get Working Dog or the Chaser on to this? It would be the funniest thing since “The Castle” and “The Dish”.

  40. [It is truly staggering that Turnbull didn’t make a single mention of the NBN in his “innovation” speech.

    If this is true then it isn’t surprising. The Liberals clearly don’t regard FTTP as being an innovation leverage or critical support infrastructure.

    They are about protecting vested interests not the national interest.]

    Yep. If the ALP want to claw back 2 points – here it is.
    Baong on this right through 2016.

    It doesnt matter how boring Shorto is in the delivery – the punters know the ALP is right on this one, and that Talcum is full of it, offering anything but innovation.

    Turn this “innovation” crap into a lead weight around his neck in 2016. It will win votes.

  41. Oh, and ‘start-ups’ – oh please. aside from “Another f***g cafe”, what start ups are worth a pinch of shit these days without world class internet?

    And “innovation” will only happen in he regions with NBN. And thats the big leveller. Then its game on. It doesnt matter where your business is headquartered.

    But nooooo – same old Wentworth, South Yarra monopoly. That’s what copper gets you – more of the same. And its already not working.

  42. [“One of the great con jobs in Oz politics was Howard convincing people that if they have an ABN number to stamp on their tax return then they are one of the hallowed entrepreneurial lifters and deserving of every tax break in sight.”]

    As a small business owner I am offended by this comment.

    Small Business owners are the hardest working in the country.

    Nobody ever shed a tear for someones whose small business failed and they lost the lot, but if you are an employee you have all the protections in the world.

  44. Interesting priorities with current Royal Commissions

    Fed LNP – Abbott’s TURC
    FED ALP – Gillard’s RC into Institutional Sexual Abuse
    VIC ALP – Andrews RC into Family Violence

    IN 20 years time I suspect only two will be viewed as having a profound, enduring impact on that place we call Australia.

  46. “Small Business owners are the hardest working in the country.”

    Another myth propounded by you guessed ….. a Tory small business owner. I’m a small business owner. Life’s a breeze compared to my former life in the public sector, better remunerated and less stressful. I wouldn’t swap back for all the tea in China.

  48. C@tmomma@321:

    “Scott Morrison is no Paul Keating”.

    He is a concentration camp kommandant who fudged his way to the top by avoiding scrutiny through secrecy. His driving holiday trip analogy of getting the budget back to surplus shows how far out of his depth he is.

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