Essential Research: 52-48 to Coalition; Morgan: 57.5-42.5

Another two pollsters close their accounts for the year, with both recording moves to the Coalition.

Essential Research’s final result for the year moves slightly back in line with the rest of the pack, with the Coalition lead up a point on the fortnightly rolling average to 52-48. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up one to 45%, Labor down one to 35%, and the Greens down one to 10%. Respondents were also asked to rate six leading politicians as good or poor, which found Malcolm Turnbull leading the field on 50% good and 17% poor, Julie Bishop performing strongly on 43% good and 21% poor, and Scott Morrison doing less well on 22% good and 25% poor. Richard Di Natale came in at 16% good and 28% poor, but the real stragglers were Bill Shorten at 14% good and 44% poor, and especially Clive Palmer, rated good by 8% and poor by 60%. The appointment of Joe Hockey as ambassador to the United States records 33% approval and 42% disapproval. The poll also finds no clear view as to whether the Coalition government has been higher or lower spending than Labor, with 22% for higher, 21% for lower and 23% for about the same.

Meanwhile at Roy Morgan, the already huge lead for the Coalition blows out still further, with the Coalition up 1.5% on the primary vote to 48%, Labor down by the same amount to 27% and the Greens up half a point to 14.5%. On the headline respondent-allocated measure of two-party preferred, the Coalition lead is out from 56-44 to 57.5-42.5, while previous election preferences have it out from 55-45 to 56-44.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

424 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Coalition; Morgan: 57.5-42.5”

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  1. Sco Mos holiday trip analogy was the stuff of the modern day, job lot comms professional. To get a bad news message across, normalise it to a subliminal image the everyday punter might just empathise with and thereby hope to validate the strategy.

    Pretty weak effort as it’s already being called out.

    Whilst I have no sympathy with Abbott, his ‘shit happens’ comment to Army personnel at least had an air of authenticity.

  2. daretotread… I gave blood, sweat and tears to the public sector over 30 years for lousy pay but dont regret a minute of it, nor feel any sort of self pity or sense of being hard done by. Twas a great job doing stuff I care about.

    The TBAs of this world are the first to denigrate the public sector and the first to denigrate the public sector when it doesnt deliver a gold plated service to them as a citizen.They want it both ways …. Lower taxes, better services. Fools.

  3. [401
    Public service worker vs small business owner take your pick don’t change the question!]

    You just like the silly idea that small business owner’s work harder for less. If they do then they are not very bright. I mean… where is the “efficiency” in that?

    It’s the kind of crap shock jock’s sprout because they get rich selling crap to moron’s.

  4. silmaj 406 … you want my ABN number?

    As i said I am now officially a small business owner, fill in my quarterly BAS and GST statement. I repeat, I’m less stressed and earn a good deal more (in part courtesy of some legal but morally dubious advice from the accountant) than in my previous employ in the public sector.

    I have no problem with small business. But I do have a problem with small business people claiming some kind of moral authority and superior status over wage earners in the public or private sector.

  5. 411
    Good luck on your advice from the accountant. I’m sure all small business owners could benefit from that and then life is a breeze. However if your occupation was disclosed and your comments about small business owners known you’d be undercut instantly and be struggling like most others. Your projection of my apparent thoughts of superiority are just justification for the religion of supporting anything that the broken failed political party you follow preaches!

  6. [Your projection of my apparent thoughts of superiority are just justification for the religion of supporting anything that the broken failed political party you follow preaches!]

    Assuming the LNP are better for small business is “the religion”.

  7. Now that it’s almost Christmas please spare a thought for Joe Hockey who can no longer claim expenses for staying at the Canberra property owned by his wife

  8. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    At last the US Fed has lifted interest rates.
    The ATO will release taxation payment details of many listed companies. Therre’s a lot who are paying zero tax.
    Whooping cough rears its head again.
    And this journo fires both barrels at the anti-vaxers.
    This is a strange criminal case.
    Another Abbott relic – PPL “double dipping” – is going down.
    The release of the TURC report is imminent.
    Elizabeth Farrelly asks what has happened to our land of the fair go.
    Our revenue slides but the spending goes on. How did we get into this position?
    And now 7-Eleven is under scrutiny over petrol price manipulation.

  9. Section 2 . . .

    A close friend of Pell accused of making up evidence to protect him. It was an interesting part of the hearing to watch.
    This scientist says that we need to get back to basics if we want to succeed with innovation.
    Ben Eltham says that cutting out the carbon tax is coming back to haunt Hunt.
    Michelle Grattan says Morrison has an inflated view of his ability to control debates.
    The Independent Australia has an “exclusive” on how Abbott and Credlin have set up the Monkey Pod sleeper cell to sort Turnbull out.,8497
    A brilliant addition to Madam Tussaud’s Waxworks.
    The behaviour of many men towards women is appalling.
    “View from the Street” examines some of the cuts announced on the MYEFO car trip.
    Is Abbott using ASIO to get at his rabid rump of the right?
    Doctors warn of co-payment by stealth.

  10. Section 3 . . . Cartoon Corner

    Alan Moir has Macfarlane in a bit of trouble over swapping political paddocks.

    The cartoonists, like Ron Tandberg, will never let Morrison forget his woeful MYEFO car trip effort.

    David Pope looks at the CFMEU.
    Mark Knight uses Star Wars to have some fun with Donald Trump.

  11. Link for PPL story at 419:

    [Earlier this year, the government announced it would save almost $1 billion by stopping women from accessing both their employer parental leave scheme (if they have access to one) and the government’s 18 weeks at the minimum wage.

    But the budget plan, which would have led to about 80,000 new mothers losing entitlements, failed to gain the required support in the Senate.

    On Wednesday, Social Services Minister Christian Porter told Sky News the government was trying to make the system “as fair as possible”. He also told ABC Radio he was in “negotiations with the crossbench”.

    Six of the eight crossbench votes would be needed to form a majority.

    Independent Nick Xenophon indicated he was still opposed to the reform, while Ricky Muir said he would review the plan in the new year. ]

  12. Millennial @ 380,

    ‘ C@tmomma, I don’t mean to be rude, but aren’t you a woman yourself? ‘

    Yep. I calls them hows I see them, no gender bias one way or t’other. 😀

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