Fairfax-Ipsos: 56-44 to Coalition

Two new polls show little sign of slackening in the momentum to Malcolm Turnbull, with the Coalition now enjoying landslide-winning leads.

The latest monthly Fairfax/Ipsos poll is a chilling result for Labor, recording a 56-44 lead for the Coalition from primary votes of Coalition 48% (up three), Labor 29% (down one) and Greens 13% (down one). I presume the two-party figure to be based on previous election preferences, though Fairfax can be a bit inconsistent on this score. The leads for the Coalition in last month’s poll were 54-46 on respondent-allocated and 53-47 on previous election (UPDATE: The Sydney Morning Herald reports the respondent-allocated result in the latest poll was 57-43). On personal ratings, Turnbull is up a point to a stratospheric 69%, with approval down one to 16%, while Bill Shorten is down three to 29% and up one to 57%. Turnbull’s lead on preferred prime minister is out from 67-21 to 69-18. The Fairfax-Ipsos poll is conducted Thursday to Saturday by landline and mobile phone from a sample of around 1400. Hat tip to GhostWhoVotes.

The Ipsos result finally brings another pollster into line with Roy Morgan, whose fortnightly result today maintained recent form in recording a big lead to the Coalition. Primary votes were Coalition 46% (down one), Labor 28% (down half) and Greens 14.5% (steady). Two-party preferred results were 56-44 on respondent-allocated preferences (down from 56.5-43.5), and 55-45 on previous election preferences (steady). This poll series combines face-to-face and SMS polling conducted over two weekends, in this case from a sample of 3167.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The fortnightly rolling average from Essential Research is still at 52-48 to the Coalition, from primary votes of Coalition 45% (steady), Labor 36% (up one) and Greens 10% (steady). Also featured is a semi-regular question on “party attributes”, the main change on a year ago being that the Liberal Party is more likely to be seen as divided (up ten to 56%), but with a better team of leaders (up ten to 48%). Respondents were asked to nominate the three most important election issues from a list, the biggest movement since the previous such question in April 2014 being a rise in “security and the war on terrorism” from 5% to 17%. A question on the government’s toughness on asylum seekers produces broadly similar results to April, with too tough up three to 25%, too soft up two to 29%, and just right down three to 31%. Fifty-four per cent support offshore detention of asylum seekers, with 31% opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,335 comments on “Fairfax-Ipsos: 56-44 to Coalition”

Comments Page 2 of 27
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  3. It doesnt look it at the moment, but the coalition vote is very fragile, they are all riding on Turnbulls back, if he falls they have nothing.

    All he has done so far is show hes not Abbott, he will have to do more than that. Has he had to sell something unpopular yet ?

  4. bemused
    [‘Labour HQ’ has never, to my knowledge, provided resources to support local campaigning of that sort.]
    Okay but I was really thinking ahead to when an election is called.

    Doesn’t Labor HQ put in more resources in some seats, particularly marginal seats, it wants to ‘protect and write off others where its internal polling indicates there is no hope of retaining or winning?

  5. Roger Bottomley – Yes quite probably so, though of course Jesus himself is a bit out of favour these days.

    Seriously though, I think what Labor needs is an Opposition leader with the capacity to command the attention of the electorate once Turnbull begins to stumble as he almost certainly will. As things stand, Turnbull could stumble quite a bit and the electorate’s lack of trust in Shorten would make it very difficult indeed to capitalise on those stumbles.

  7. yes bug1 -its actually a very cunning Shorten plan! Silly me !

    Roger – thats about as relevant as the catechism of the Catholic Church.

  8. bug1@36

    We should expect a long honeymoon, so much relief that that other person is gone, and some of his extreme weirdness is being undone by his successor.

    But the honeymoon certainly wont last a year.

    It will take a while for the electorate gets sick of his smugness and 1000 word slogans, its so welcome as a contrast that its barely noticed right now. But once he is painted as a “smartass” he will come back to earth.

    “1000 word slogans”… I do like that.

  9. [ Australia’s first Islamic faith political party ]
    I suppose the question is; are they right wing nutters like those that claim they are Christians. Come on down Mr Cory Bernardi.

  12. Pegasus@54

    bemused

    ‘Labour HQ’ has never, to my knowledge, provided resources to support local campaigning of that sort.


    Okay but I was really thinking ahead to when an election is called.

    Doesn’t Labor HQ put in more resources in some seats, particularly marginal seats, it wants to ‘protect and write off others where its internal polling indicates there is no hope of retaining or winning?

    When I was a candidate or otherwise actively involved in a local campaign, we were on our own.

    We raised our funds, mobilised our members and local volunteers. If we were really lucky, we might get a few extra volunteers diverted our way form seats where there was a surplus.

    I think things have improved somewhat now as Labor has been running a grass-roots campaign from State Office and mobilising volunteers.

  14. Given what Media Watch reported on the new ACMA-approved commercial broadcast code of conduct, my question is whether there is now anything that the commercial channels could broadcast in a current affairs program after 7.30 that would result in them being found to be in breach of the code?

  15. david
    I think that’s a reasonable proposition.

    Labor didn’t build the position they needed to over the past couple of years, instead they relied on Abbott destroying his own position and so they’re entering the contest with Turnbull with their position much as it was in 2013.

  16. there is a real relief in the electorate that abbott is gone and that we have a PM who is considered and thoughtful and obviously encourages his ministers to be the same. I think turnbull’s rejection of slogans and point scoring, and getting his ministers to do the same is a PR masterstroke. people were sick of abbott as LoTO and PM. I’ll never vote for them, but I have to say turnbull is giving me some hope that the howard era is finally over and we might start moving back to the centre and become an outward looking and progressive country. If turnbull needs to win an election to have the authority to bring the liberal party back to the centre, then it may not be the worst thing. The lib’s IR and welfare policies terrify me, and I worry they’ll get control of the upper house the way things are going. I hope shorten steps up, but think he’s tainted as being seen to be from the abbott toxic politics era.

  18. Rudd and Gillard are gone, no one cares about them except political enthusiasts of the sort that post here. The majority voters are relieved that adults now seem to be in charge. Hey are all too happy to see the back of Abbott. We have a PM who seems to know what he’s doing, he is suave and personable, a bit of a waffler at times but a pleasant change from Abbott’s incoherence and bluster. On the world stage, unlike his predecessor, he isn’t an embarassment.

    Turnbull has yet to make any big mistakes and, for that matter, any unpopular decisions. He is still enjoying his honeymoon. Rudd’s lasted over a year. The gloss will wear off as time goes by, especially when the Turnbull Government delivers a budget.

  21. Correct Steve 777.

    People like the cut of Turnbulls jib. He is probably the most impressive figure since Keating, as much as I hate to admit it.

  22. Steve777:

    Not only is Abbott replaced with someone seemingly more competent, but the blundering Hockey has as well who was woeful as Treasurer.

    I’m not convinced yet that Morrison is up to the job, but he hasn’t been as gaffe prone as Hockey was.

  23. If there are a few more 55+ to the Libs, Shorten will be under severe pressure to go.

    It might be a Paris-related poll.

    Too early to tell.

  24. If there are a few more 55+ to the Libs, Shorten will be under severe pressure to go.

    If there were an obvious popular replacement, sure.

    There isn’t.

    If Shorten is pressured to go and steps aside and is replaced by someone (Albo – hah!, Plibersek, Burke, Dreyfus, whoever), it wouldn’t help the ALP one jot at the moment in my opinion, and just help burn another ALP figure.

  25. Pleasing for the LNP but we are actually in a period of political indifference.

    All the old LNP bogeys are gone and the People’s Choice has yet to actually do anything to upset anyone.

    Despite the right wing hacks, there is nothing Shorten, or any other Labor politician can do yet to change this.

    When Abbott went there was cheering on the streets. Now, essentially, bland, bland, bland.

    Folks seem to like it…so be it for the time being at least.

  26. Airlines@69

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-11-16/sharon-bird-pre-selection-challenge/6944930?section=nsw

    The ALP’s Member for Cunningham is facing a surprise pre-selection challenge in her long held federal seat.

    When the date for nominating for pre-selection closed last week there was a surprise challenge from Misha Zelinsky, an official with the Australian Workers Union, former NSW government policy advisor and criminal defence lawyer.

    I don’t recall Sharon Bird making a big impact in parliament.

    Nothing against her personally, but IIRC she has a safe seat and maybe it is time she moved on.

  27. People like the cut of Turnbulls jib.

    Clearly they do.

    He is probably the most impressive figure since Keating, as much as I hate to admit it.

    Bleh. I don’t find him an impressive figure at all.

    He is clearly streets ahead of Abbott, but so is 95% of the population.

    The footage of him at the G20 and/or making a statement to the French foreign minister about the attacks was very unimpressive in my opinion. Hollow, waffly, unconvincing.

    But yeah, just my opinion, and clearly the public are feeling the Mal lurve.

  28. Diogenes@73

    If there are a few more 55+ to the Libs, Shorten will be under severe pressure to go.

    It might be a Paris-related poll.

    Too early to tell.

    Paris would have occurred to late to have much impact. I believe they were out in the field Thur – Sat.

  29. Jackol

    55-45 is a massacre. Labor wouldn’t let that happen. They’d have to roll the dice with someone but I agree there isn’t anyone obvious. I’m thinking Burke would probably be the best bet under those circs.

  30. Diog – of course those figures are a massacre. I totally agree that if the ALP thought they could do something about it they would move. They wouldn’t hesitate for a second.

    But there really isn’t anything they can do.

    They may well panic and make a change just to do something, anything, but it won’t help them at all. I think it would just make their situation worse.

    Of course if panic sets in then rationality is out the window, so anything can happen.

  31. Diogenes@79

    Jackol

    55-45 is a massacre. Labor wouldn’t let that happen. They’d have to roll the dice with someone but I agree there isn’t anyone obvious. I’m thinking Burke would probably be the best bet under those circs.

    The campaign has not yet started. Turnbull is not Abbott and has, for the time being, the novelty factor.

  32. [davidwh
    Posted Monday, November 16, 2015 at 10:08 pm | PERMALINK
    ML may get close to her 100 seats this week.    ]

    Possibly David. But I can’t work out why anyone would take the Ipsos or Morgan polls seriously.

    Until Newspoll/Galaxy confirms that the ALP primary has sunk as low as 28% or 29% I’ll be taking them with a grain of salt.

  35. DIOGENES – The best way to ensure a massacre is to change leaders and showing that Labor is still infected with leadership woes. This mob will surely hold it’s nerve.
    Basically, right now, after a couple of years of turmoil under Abbott, the electorate has downed tools and tuned out. Whether they will change their minds about Turnbull when they tune back in, some time next year, is the big question. But right now the race hasn’t even started.

  36. bemused

    You’re right. I looked it up and the polling was 12-14 so there is no Paris effect.

    And the GST rise with compensation looks like it could be taken to the election.

    [However, when voters are asked whether they supported an increased GST if accompanied by tax cuts and other forms of compensation for household on incomes of less than $100,000, support almost doubles to 52 per cent while opposition plunges to 41 per cent.]

  39. [Hollow, waffly, unconvincing.]

    That’s how I view Turnbull too. He comes across as someone who thinks his shit doesn’t stink.

  40. ESJ

    In all honesty, the problem isn’t policies for the ALP.
    The voting population has had a long love affair with Malcolm & won’t be dissuaded until or unless he genuinely lets them down. Many, rightly or wrongly are willing him to succeed, due in no small part to the horrors of the Abbott period.
    I don’t sense that either personality or policy will assist the ALP at this time & they do have sound policies & solid likeable personalities waiting in the wings.
    It is just Malcolm’s time, its in the stars but in time, even stars lose their lustre, only the length of time is in question.

  42. Diogenes@86

    bemused

    You’re right. I looked it up and the polling was 12-14 so there is no Paris effect.

    And the GST rise with compensation looks like it could be taken to the election.

    However, when voters are asked whether they supported an increased GST if accompanied by tax cuts and other forms of compensation for household on incomes of less than $100,000, support almost doubles to 52 per cent while opposition plunges to 41 per cent.

    I think GST will either be a very hard sell or most of it will be dissipated in compensation, rendering it pointless.

  44. Kevin

    I dunno.

    If 55-45 is the plateau, that equates to about 100 seats to 50. I definitely agree it’s too early to move, esp as you’d want to see this trend for about 6 weeks but if it’s 55-45 at Christmas, I think they’d have to change.

  46. The Rudd rules make a forced departure very difficult. Essentially your relying on the realism and party loyalty of the failed leader to recognise the truth.

    Its actually anti-democratic because it will encourage the closed factional leader push to deal with failure.

  47. [bemused
    Posted Monday, November 16, 2015 at 10:40 pm | PERMALINK
    Edwina StJohn@84
    Shorten may develop a sudden pre Christmas health crisis. No one would blame him for a health related resignation.

    Any chance of you developing one sooner?

    Preferably nothing too trivial.]

    Don’t be too hard on ESJ Bemused. Bad polls for Labor are the only things that add a bit of excitement to his/her miserable life.

  48. Carn Darn! I reckon it overstates Labors support. 29% primary for Labor is more like 60-40.

    You have to factor in the Green pref flow will favour Turnbull relative to 2013.

  49. George Newhouse has a lot to answer for running such a lousy Wentworth campaign in 2013. History may have turned out very different but for George.

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