Fairfax-Ipsos: 56-44 to Coalition

Two new polls show little sign of slackening in the momentum to Malcolm Turnbull, with the Coalition now enjoying landslide-winning leads.

The latest monthly Fairfax/Ipsos poll is a chilling result for Labor, recording a 56-44 lead for the Coalition from primary votes of Coalition 48% (up three), Labor 29% (down one) and Greens 13% (down one). I presume the two-party figure to be based on previous election preferences, though Fairfax can be a bit inconsistent on this score. The leads for the Coalition in last month’s poll were 54-46 on respondent-allocated and 53-47 on previous election (UPDATE: The Sydney Morning Herald reports the respondent-allocated result in the latest poll was 57-43). On personal ratings, Turnbull is up a point to a stratospheric 69%, with approval down one to 16%, while Bill Shorten is down three to 29% and up one to 57%. Turnbull’s lead on preferred prime minister is out from 67-21 to 69-18. The Fairfax-Ipsos poll is conducted Thursday to Saturday by landline and mobile phone from a sample of around 1400. Hat tip to GhostWhoVotes.

The Ipsos result finally brings another pollster into line with Roy Morgan, whose fortnightly result today maintained recent form in recording a big lead to the Coalition. Primary votes were Coalition 46% (down one), Labor 28% (down half) and Greens 14.5% (steady). Two-party preferred results were 56-44 on respondent-allocated preferences (down from 56.5-43.5), and 55-45 on previous election preferences (steady). This poll series combines face-to-face and SMS polling conducted over two weekends, in this case from a sample of 3167.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The fortnightly rolling average from Essential Research is still at 52-48 to the Coalition, from primary votes of Coalition 45% (steady), Labor 36% (up one) and Greens 10% (steady). Also featured is a semi-regular question on “party attributes”, the main change on a year ago being that the Liberal Party is more likely to be seen as divided (up ten to 56%), but with a better team of leaders (up ten to 48%). Respondents were asked to nominate the three most important election issues from a list, the biggest movement since the previous such question in April 2014 being a rise in “security and the war on terrorism” from 5% to 17%. A question on the government’s toughness on asylum seekers produces broadly similar results to April, with too tough up three to 25%, too soft up two to 29%, and just right down three to 31%. Fifty-four per cent support offshore detention of asylum seekers, with 31% opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,335 comments on “Fairfax-Ipsos: 56-44 to Coalition”

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  1. “@ERN_Malleyscrub: Who is the actor playing the part of Chris Pyne? He’s totally out of character, agreeing with Kate Ellis and being reasonable. Weird #QandA”

  3. ESJ

    [You have to factor in the Green pref flow will favour Turnbull relative to 2013.]

    Actually I hadn’t thought of that. You’re probably right; less than 80% of Green prefs will go to Labor as Turnbull is a lot more-Green friendly than Abbott-Howard.

  8. The next leader of the FPLP will come from the Right, as they always do these days. He will wait until after the next election loss and put himself forward in the usual way in order to claim true legitimacy as leader. He knows that Malcolm Turnbull will likely get another election win after the one next year too. However he is young enough to be resigned to the hard slog of Opposition until such time as the electorate tires of Turnbull. Again. Because he realises that Turnbull has an Achilles Heel, and that is too much self-belief and being blind to reality and seeing things that are obvious to Blind Freddy, so much so that it eventually trips him up. Think the Republic, Gretch, the Solomons, HIH, Rain-making with taxpayer $ for his ‘Entrepeneurial’ mates. Might I say, an almost Gough-like hubris.

    He’s also not too fussy about the company he keeps(see above) and may already have made his first big mistake by employing Hard Right Economic Wingnut, and confrere and business partner of Henry Ergas, Dr Alex Robson. Is Australia really ready for Laissez Faire Economics? Schools and Hospitals sold to Private Enterprise, the NDIS turned into a cash cow for his mates, ditto Welfare ‘Services’, a completely hands-off approach by government except when it comes to making the decisions about which companies get to control what policy area.

    Sure, he’s not as obnoxious as Rudd, not as crazy as Abbott, not as gimpily-irritating as Howard, nor as much of a cold fish as Gillard was…but he sure as hell isn’t unbeatable. As the man who will lead Labor to victory in 2019, or 2022, would also realise.

    As Malcolm himself has realised, politics is all about the long game. Though, 60 years old before he finally became Prime Minister. I bet that’s the bit that pisses him off the most.

  14. [ I am not ready to give Truffles the keys to the kingdom on a velvet cushion just yet. ]

    But…but…its his due!! Its Luverly Malcolm after all!!

    He is certainly settling in polling wise. As to the why? Well, he hasn’t actually done anything as yet except not be Abbott. Not sure how long that will be enough for, but probably till after Xmas. And then he has to start committing to things which is where he may come unstuck. He really does not have much of a record as a doer does our PM.

  17. confessions

    I recommend watching it on Iview if you can’t catch the delayed version on television in the West.

    Best one for some time at least as good quality if not better than the Tom Ballard hosted one in Toowoomba.

  19. C@tmomma@108


    —
    As Malcolm himself has realised, politics is all about the long game. Though, 60 years old before he finally became Prime Minister. I bet that’s the bit that pisses him off the most.

    Hilary Clinton will be 69 when she contests the US Presidential Election, and 73 when she goes for a second term.

    So what’s your point? Turnbull is a youngster by international standards.

  20. C@tmomma

    [Sure, he’s not as obnoxious as Rudd, not as crazy as Abbott, not as gimpily-irritating as Howard, nor as much of a cold fish as Gillard was…but he sure as hell isn’t unbeatable. As the man who will lead Labor to victory in 2019, or 2022, would also realise. ]

    As Seneca said to Nero “No matter how many people you kill, you can never kill your successor”

  24. There is a lot of rational and almost unbiased commentary tonight. I’m a little concerned the Crikey Gerbils have spiked the water cooler.

  25. Airlines@122

    bemused, 119

    To compound your point, Bernie’s 74 at the moment, older than Hillary will be at her second election

    Yes, and hark back to the geriatrics the Russians used to have in the leadership.

  27. confessions

    This time I think inform is what happened not inflamed.

    Except for the last question to Pyne about the union poll back in July and Xenophon putting a candidate up against him.

  28. “@Reuters: BREAKING: New IS video warns countries taking part in Syria airstrikes, they will suffer France’s fate, threatens attack in Washington.”

  30. guytaur@128

    “@Reuters: BREAKING: New IS video warns countries taking part in Syria airstrikes, they will suffer France’s fate, threatens attack in Washington.”

    They really do have a death wish don’t they?

  32. IF someone were to challenge Shorten for the leadership, it would be a “now or never candidate”, so someone from the second tier of the leadership contender pool, like Burke, or somebody who might feel like the opportunity might leave them soon, like Albanese.

    Strongly touted leader options, like Bowen and Plibersek will bide their time, stay loyal and only put their hand up after the next election, when the margin is smaller.

  35. It’s probably getting close to a UN Coalition taking IS on seriously on the ground. It would be good if the US and Russia could cooperate on the action. It’s the only way to reduce the already terrible human tragedy that Syria has become.

  36. davidwh@135

    It’s probably getting close to a UN Coalition taking IS on seriously on the ground. It would be good if the US and Russia could cooperate on the action. It’s the only way to reduce the already terrible human tragedy that Syria has become.

    They need to accommodate each others strategic interests.

  38. Putin and Obama were in intense discussions one to one at the G20 today.

    So it looks the most promising to that result for some time. The photo of the conversation was tweeted

  39. I think fighting IS would have to come with an inevitable solution to the Syrian Civil War as a package deal – can’t do one without the other, else IS will fester like the sore that it is and will continue to feed off the instability in the region

  42. C@tmomma @ 108: Yep, that new leader is probably Jason Clare. Lets hope he has more than a handful of MPs to lead after the lemmings throw themselves off the cliff next year because “Bill deserves his chance”.

  45. [They need to accommodate each others strategic interests. ]

    Will be interesting to see how they do that. Suspect the Russians operate in western Syria where they can protect Assad and the Americans everywhere else. I don’t think really the the problem in defeating Daesh as such.

    Its managing the post war situation where a LOT of people will be wanting to settle scores. Not like its ever been a problem in the ME before…..

    I feel sorry for Kurds. Its very likely they will get screwed over in order to keep Turkey sweet. 🙁

  46. imacca

    Assad will only stay if the Russians want him to. If the US promises that a transition will be accepted Assad will be disposed of if it gains strategic value for Russia.

  47. bemused, not all leaders develop wisdom as they age. Some develop dementia. I prefer leaders that are still mentally agile and in possession of the majority of their great talent. Like President Obama and Justin Trudeau. Plus, I am sure if you asked her, that Hillary Clinton would have preferred to have won the Presidency 8 years ago when ‘only’ 60.

  48. [Carey M:

    I don’t really see much benefit in Labor changing leaders now to be honest.]

    Honestly, I doubt they will. Well not before the budget. The ALP desperate want to shake off the “revolving door leadership” look.

    However, if we keep getting terrible polls going into next year, preservation instinct will kick in and more desperate actions might be taken.

    I am sure (and feel free to bookmark this and throw it in my face later) that Bill Shorten will be celebrating Christmas, NYE and Australia Day as Opposition Leader.

  49. guytaur

    Turkey very early on suggested that a transition from Assad was the way to go and I’m pretty sure Russia were open to the idea. The US said no way Jose, Assad had to go immediately. Annoying to see Kerry recently talking about a transition as if it was a great new idea from the Americans.

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