Fairfax-Ipsos: 56-44 to Coalition

Two new polls show little sign of slackening in the momentum to Malcolm Turnbull, with the Coalition now enjoying landslide-winning leads.

The latest monthly Fairfax/Ipsos poll is a chilling result for Labor, recording a 56-44 lead for the Coalition from primary votes of Coalition 48% (up three), Labor 29% (down one) and Greens 13% (down one). I presume the two-party figure to be based on previous election preferences, though Fairfax can be a bit inconsistent on this score. The leads for the Coalition in last month’s poll were 54-46 on respondent-allocated and 53-47 on previous election (UPDATE: The Sydney Morning Herald reports the respondent-allocated result in the latest poll was 57-43). On personal ratings, Turnbull is up a point to a stratospheric 69%, with approval down one to 16%, while Bill Shorten is down three to 29% and up one to 57%. Turnbull’s lead on preferred prime minister is out from 67-21 to 69-18. The Fairfax-Ipsos poll is conducted Thursday to Saturday by landline and mobile phone from a sample of around 1400. Hat tip to GhostWhoVotes.

The Ipsos result finally brings another pollster into line with Roy Morgan, whose fortnightly result today maintained recent form in recording a big lead to the Coalition. Primary votes were Coalition 46% (down one), Labor 28% (down half) and Greens 14.5% (steady). Two-party preferred results were 56-44 on respondent-allocated preferences (down from 56.5-43.5), and 55-45 on previous election preferences (steady). This poll series combines face-to-face and SMS polling conducted over two weekends, in this case from a sample of 3167.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The fortnightly rolling average from Essential Research is still at 52-48 to the Coalition, from primary votes of Coalition 45% (steady), Labor 36% (up one) and Greens 10% (steady). Also featured is a semi-regular question on “party attributes”, the main change on a year ago being that the Liberal Party is more likely to be seen as divided (up ten to 56%), but with a better team of leaders (up ten to 48%). Respondents were asked to nominate the three most important election issues from a list, the biggest movement since the previous such question in April 2014 being a rise in “security and the war on terrorism” from 5% to 17%. A question on the government’s toughness on asylum seekers produces broadly similar results to April, with too tough up three to 25%, too soft up two to 29%, and just right down three to 31%. Fifty-four per cent support offshore detention of asylum seekers, with 31% opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,335 comments on “Fairfax-Ipsos: 56-44 to Coalition”

Comments Page 27 of 27
1 26 27
  1. Crikey have a great article in today’s email demonstrating how Hunt’s claims about us meeting our emissions reductions targets are highly flawed.

  2. Never mind the ABC, I fully expect to read in The Age tomorrow that the charges against the former Vic Lib boss raise serious questions for Bill Shorten to answer.

  3. I wonder how the Libs stitched up the Nats on the Green Lawfare thing?

    Maybe they are going to give landholders rights to what is under their land?

    Big free giftie of resources to landholders?

    I imagine that the Right Nutters have not quite thought it through because it basically increases Indigenous land rights to where many wanted it, way back.

  4. [Crikey have a great article in today’s email demonstrating how Hunt’s claims about us meeting our emissions reductions targets are highly flawed.]

    If by highly flawed they mean completely ridiculous fabrications only CC or TBA would believe for more than a second i’m sure you are right. Is there anyone in the world with less credibility than Hunt, the man who wrote a thesis on cap and trade!

  5. adrian@1298

    I know what I said will not overcome your ABC hatred and paranoia. Try therapy.

    You really don’t like it when people disagree with you, so you resort to the kind of crap above.

    Disagreement grounded in facts, or at least an arguable case, does not bother me in the slightest.

  6. Sohar@1300

    If Turnbull, Morrison, or whoever, were to sell the ABC to Murdoch I doubt there would be any noticeable difference in news and current affairs coverage. The only things that would change is the pretense that the organisation is ‘fair and balanced’ and that Kitchen Cabinet would be sponsored by Coles the Fresh Food People.

    Utter rubbish that reflects poorly on your intellectual capacity.

  7. [Maybe they are going to give landholders rights to what is under their land?

    Big free giftie of resources to landholders?]

    That would have to come from the states I’m pretty sure?

  8. The only thing wrong with sohar’s post is that it’s Woolworths the fresh food people. And a few radio stations which won’t last much longer anyway.

  9. Greens and Labor on the same page re justice reinvestment:

    Greens Party justice reinvestment initiative, 1 August 2013: http://greens.org.au/justice-reinvestment
    [The Australian Greens know it is a social and economic
    imperative we find ways to reverse escalating imprisonment

    [Bill Shorten says a Labor government will pursue the idea of “justice reinvestment” to reduce “shocking” rates of Indigenous incarceration by moving government funding from prisons to diversionary programs.

    The Labor leader used a speech to the Melbourne University law faculty to repeat the party’s 2013 promise that if elected it will use his first meeting with state premiers to set national targets to reduce Indigenous incarceration, saying that goal is essential to meeting all the other national “closing the gap” targets.]

  10. [Greens and Labor on the same page re justice reinvestment:]

    Standby for greens to condemn identical justice reinvestment as ‘worst than no justice reinvestment at all’.

  11. Chevron’s vice-president and general tax counsel Sandy Macfarlane, who flew from the US to front the Senate’s corporate tax avoidance committee, described the case as merely “a difference of view” with the Australian Tax Office.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/chevron-hits-back-at-tax-dodger-label-20151118-gl29cz.html#ixzz3rqI0MWaT
    Follow us: @smh on Twitter | sydneymorningherald on Facebook

    Sandy must have the post office next door to Ruperts..

    Will Turnbull have one there or is he satisfied with his Cayman dropbox
    Can’t ain’t for TBA & CC try & defend them

  12. Transfield has re-badged and changed its name to Broadspectrum.

    Antony Loewenstein: http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/nov/18/nows-the-time-to-boycott-companies-that-profit-from-detention

    [Nonetheless, the growing push for divestment against Broadspectrum is an encouraging sign that companies profiting from offshore misery could suffer serious harm. Shen Narayanasamy, executive director of No Business in Abuse, rightly argues that, “you don’t deal with abuse by changing your name, you deal with abuse by stopping the abuse. No amount of spin changes Transfield’s complicity in abuse. Transfield/Broadspectrum doesn’t have to sign a five-year contract to continue profiting from the abuse of vulnerable people. That’s their decision.”

    The time is ripe for a vociferous divestment campaign against Serco in Australia for its past and present activities. The firm is having financial troubles and is economically vulnerable to shareholder pressure. Broadspectrum will face a growing public backlash as long as it’s involved in the privatised detention business, although it’s unlikely to collapse from that alone.

    Lessons from other states prove that this is only half the battle (for example, European detention firms are making money from the current refugee crisis) and that uncovering the financial and ideological ties that have led to the modern trend of outsourcing asylum seekers to corporations is the far larger and more difficult battle. It means challenging an economic model that places a monetary value on every human being.]

    No Business in Abuse: https://www.nobusinessinabuse.org/

  13. Pegasus

    I had to read the article, thought you were joking.

    The guys that thought this up must have workshopped it after the worlds longest lunch….

    Transfield has re-badged and changed its name to Broadspectrum…….Weedkiller

    The next Sydney Biennale will be a hoot ….. Sculptures made from Roundup / Zero containers everywhere

  14. [“Nonetheless, the growing push for divestment against Broadspectrum is an encouraging sign that companies profiting from offshore misery could suffer serious harm”]

    Blah Blah Blah Divestment.

    The biggest risk to Broadspectrum or Transfields profits is a Coalition Government being re-elected and keeping the boats stopped.

    The best thing that could happen for them is Labor Open Borders to be elected.

  15. on another matter -0 airbnb before senate inquiry claim they charge a 3% fee – the actual figure (they charge a fee to customer one to supplier plus more — is 15% – higher than bookings.com – they are merciless in not refunding that fee even if no service provided …. they treat the senate inquiry with contempt – they have no taxation or earnings figures act like whimging naughty schollchildren – they should be stung financially so should all their slients – but i am less worried by airbnb than uber – uber allow untained unregulated cars to pick up srangers …. amazing. let’s just regulate the whole economy, no wonder turnbull likes these companies ….

    turnbull and gst —– as bad as anything abbot did

  16. Chevron Australia Transport, a Chevron-owned company that has a stake in a shipping company, is in turn owned by Chevron Australia Transport Bermuda.

    Mr Krzywosinski said most international shipping companies are owned through Bermuda and the country had a remarkable maritime safety record.

    It turns out the Bermuda Triangle is more or less complete nonsense…

  17. As I thought it might be, it appears the French airstrikes in Syria are mostly for show. Same for the others, the US and Russia (and presumably the RAAF).

    [Abdullah, a Syrian concierge in Beirut who reached his sister in Raqqa on Tuesday, said that in the case of the seven French airstrikes on Monday, “all these strikes are targeting abandoned empty locations”.

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/world/strikes-on-islamic-state-capital-lead-to-more-questions-than-results-20151118-gl22a1.html#ixzz3rsH1Yghd ]

  18. Liking the breaking news from Indonesia.
    Moratorium on the death penalty. Hopefully its the start towards ending it.

    * @Leroy_Lynch: Indonesia has announced a moratorium on executions as it concentrates on fixing its weak economy https://t.co/dFo5DHUauq via @ABCNews

  19. sceptic @ 1323,

    ‘ The next Sydney Biennale will be a hoot ….. Sculptures made from Roundup / Zero containers everywhere’

    Or Broadspectrum antibiotic packets. 😀

Comments Page 27 of 27
1 26 27

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *