The latest monthly Fairfax/Ipsos poll is a chilling result for Labor, recording a 56-44 lead for the Coalition from primary votes of Coalition 48% (up three), Labor 29% (down one) and Greens 13% (down one). I presume the two-party figure to be based on previous election preferences, though Fairfax can be a bit inconsistent on this score. The leads for the Coalition in last month’s poll were 54-46 on respondent-allocated and 53-47 on previous election (UPDATE: The Sydney Morning Herald reports the respondent-allocated result in the latest poll was 57-43). On personal ratings, Turnbull is up a point to a stratospheric 69%, with approval down one to 16%, while Bill Shorten is down three to 29% and up one to 57%. Turnbull’s lead on preferred prime minister is out from 67-21 to 69-18. The Fairfax-Ipsos poll is conducted Thursday to Saturday by landline and mobile phone from a sample of around 1400. Hat tip to GhostWhoVotes.
The Ipsos result finally brings another pollster into line with Roy Morgan, whose fortnightly result today maintained recent form in recording a big lead to the Coalition. Primary votes were Coalition 46% (down one), Labor 28% (down half) and Greens 14.5% (steady). Two-party preferred results were 56-44 on respondent-allocated preferences (down from 56.5-43.5), and 55-45 on previous election preferences (steady). This poll series combines face-to-face and SMS polling conducted over two weekends, in this case from a sample of 3167.
UPDATE (Essential Research): The fortnightly rolling average from Essential Research is still at 52-48 to the Coalition, from primary votes of Coalition 45% (steady), Labor 36% (up one) and Greens 10% (steady). Also featured is a semi-regular question on “party attributes”, the main change on a year ago being that the Liberal Party is more likely to be seen as divided (up ten to 56%), but with a better team of leaders (up ten to 48%). Respondents were asked to nominate the three most important election issues from a list, the biggest movement since the previous such question in April 2014 being a rise in “security and the war on terrorism” from 5% to 17%. A question on the government’s toughness on asylum seekers produces broadly similar results to April, with too tough up three to 25%, too soft up two to 29%, and just right down three to 31%. Fifty-four per cent support offshore detention of asylum seekers, with 31% opposed.
mh
I understood the slogan went something like, ‘We will decide who… ‘
[ Boerwar
Posted Wednesday, November 18, 2015 at 7:20 pm | PERMALINK
dave
The Vatican is a nest of vipers, IMO. ]
Yep, and it goes back many many years and on many issues.
I have family on my Mother’s side who came from Esperance to NSW on the Wheat Luggers. They plied the trade, from Esperance to Fremantle, and Esperance to Pyrmont. Great Seaman, one and all, when it took an awesome amount of skill to pilot those big ships through the Great Australian Bight and Bass Strait, stopping off in Melbourne if needs be, and then up the coast to Sydney. Anyone who has watched a Sydney to Hobart Race in appalling conditions will know what I mean.
The other brothers remained on the farm in Esperance, growing Wheat and farming Sheep. They are still there to this day, over a 100 years on. They are the sort of people who would drive back into a fire to warn their neighbours to get out. I hope they are OK. Until I find out the names of those who have perished in the bushfires in and around Esperance I won’t know for sure.
Bugger the feeble actions to address Global Warming that the Abbott-Turnbull Government are persevering with in order to satisfy their Fossil Fool mates who are hardly what I would classify as ‘Agile’ businesses. Antediluvian, morelike.
And before any defenders of the Conservative faith light upon my tail with cries of, ‘the fires were caused by Mother Nature & Lightning’, let me just say that it has been proven that the incidence of Dry Lightning increases with Global Warming even though it is a natural phenomenon.
Tea and sympathy from Malcolm Turnbull over these fires just doesn’t cut it with me I’m afraid. He should have the balls to be doing more. However that’s exactly what the Nationals and Sceptics have got him by.
Lazy ABC journalism
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-11-18/horsham-power-substation-fire-causes-blackout-for-entire-town/6952740
Horsham is a city … the biggest city between Adelaide and Ballarat.
Half of my family come from Horsham and ‘suburb’ Dimboola and this lazy sh*t from the ABC curries no favours…
Lindy ‘I’m so important so treat me with respect’ Burns said tonight on Raf Epstein’s 774 Drive program.. ‘Oh those poor townspeople…the whole town…’
F**kwit
But then Lindy ‘Ms Princess’ Burns is a Novacastrian so we can cut her some slack…
Not.
Turnbull was struggling for words re Esperance fires…
He is totally out of his depth…
C@tmomma
I trust your family is safe. While you are waiting anxiously, you might want to enjoy:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sUhKBZb7A7c
Those bludgers who think that the ABC is an exemplary news organisation might like to explain why the evening news had no room for a report on Damien Mantach, but of course found space for a lengthy report on proceedings in TURC.
[Peter Brent issued a tweet recently that played down Waleed Aly’s reach and influence as a commentator.]
Nicholas
Compared to Brent Aly would have a reach like a sick dog!
adrian
[ Those bludgers who think that the ABC is an exemplary news organisation … ]
I think there are only two or three of those here on PB, and they also tend to have quite bizarre views in other areas.
The rest of us can see the ABC for what it is.
[Turnbull was struggling for words re Esperance fires…
He is totally out of his depth…]
Yep, like if he’s not poncing around at some E.suburb cocktail party telling long boring jokes.
Adrian at 1258
The TURC did not even get a mention on PM this evening (Victoria)…
After some f**kwit stuffed up the 6.00pm news bulletin
Idiots…
Another ready to be converted if not already
“Powercor line worker Tim Vanstan said he believed the fire in the number one transmitter has short-circuited and caught fire.
“All of Horsham is without power and will remain so until the fire is out,” Mr Vanstan said.
“It is very rare for this to happen. The hot weather has had something to do with it. It’s just so big.”
http://www.mailtimes.com.au/story/3502264/thousands-without-power-as-fire-hits-horsham-station-photos-video/?cs=225
BW
BTW Samarco destroying the drinking water of Brazil is a disgrace, Turnbull should accuse BHP of environmental warfare, all the CEO’s should be locked up in some horrid off-shore camp if only Australia had such things, oh wait..
Boerwar
Sad to see a legend die so young. He looked OK in Sth Africa recently doing an anniversary doco on the 95 Cup final. Although he did say his condition was tricky to manage.
poroti
[Sad to see a legend die so young. ]
Saw an interview with him done in Dubai only a couple of days ago.
Said he was looking forward to being home.
Pegasus@855
Never sat well with me, to put it mildly. One of the dumber and more unethical things Labor ever did. 🙁
confessions@734
…and c) because cultivating a personal loyalty among the security-military class is usually the first step wannabe authoritarians take toward to a coup.
Yeah David, it can just gather dust. $80 mil ? shortchange to Tories
Jonah was a gent the way he didn’t wipe his feet on campo on the way through.
Thank you so very much, Boerwar. 🙂 Yes, they were made of tough stuff. Still are, but caring with it.
outside left @1269,
‘ Yeah David, it can just gather dust. $80 mil ? shortchange to Tories’.
Yes, but as per usual with Tories, they have used OUR $80 million to fund their frolic.
adrian@1258
Mantach got a good run in Victoria because it is of interest to Victorians. You must live elsewhere.
TURC is a national issue.
There, simple wasn’t it.
Great program on Jonah now on fox sports 1 returning to South Africa.
Such a gentle spoken man. Some unsightly growth in his left arm which I suppose is the legacy of the dialysis
cat @ 1272
They never forget it’s not their money – so they don’t have to worry about pissing it up against the wall.
[TURC is a national issue.]
Ironically, all of the dodgy and/or criminal practices allegedly uncovered by TURC were local – it was always some state branch or another that appeared to go rogue (even the CFMEU was not every state). Only the national leadership of the HSU was dodgy – and that, with one glaring exception, was addressed before TURC even got its letters patent. And the exception was studiously avoided by TURC until it became obvious that it was like a skin cancer that was about to metastasise and spread across TURC.
shellbell
[Great program on Jonah now on fox sports 1 returning to South Africa.]
It was really sad watching him meeting Joost van der Westhuizen . Poor Joost pretty far gone with motor neurone disease. Two greats laid low by really bad health luck.
[Mantach got a good run in Victoria because it is of interest to Victorians. You must live elsewhere.
TURC is a national issue.
There, simple wasn’t it.]
I guess you’re incapable of recognising the contradiction inherent in that argument, but try reading every word of TPOF’s post, and see howc you go.
Boerwar at 1249
“If the Pope were decent he would release all the documentation on the Australian RC’s pedophiles, on the priests and bishops, on who knew what, and on who covered what up, and when.”
Quite right, it was more a comparison with his predecessors, most of whom had set a very low bar.
The HSU reported the suspected fraud to the Police and had it investigated. The Tasmanian Liberals swept it under the carpet and have refused to call the Police. They obviously like to keep their corruption in-house
adrian@1278
I meant TURC is a national issue in the sense that it was set up by the Federal Govt and has been involved in all states.
I know what I said will not overcome your ABC hatred and paranoia. Try therapy.
I confess to holding a bizarre view that the ABC is the most balanced media organization in the country.
adrian@1258
Never heard of him. Is he a footballer?
davidwh@1282
Not at all bizarre. It just means you are not paranoid.
For it to be as biased as the tin foil hatters here would have it, a hell of a lot of staff would have to be part of the conspiracy and none of them say anything about it.
That said, like all organisations, it is not above reproach and does make errors of judgement occasionally.
don@1283
Was State Director of Libs in Vic and relieved them of over $1.5M.
Should be a hero on PB.
Guytaur at 1066
“lenoretaylor: Turnbull govt unexpectedly pushes on with ‘green lawfare’ legislation plan, cancels public hearings https://t.co/g7wFbjdmIq #auspol”
I wonder if this might be the type of issue that might begin the process of tarnishing the shine on Turnbull’s halo for swinging voters.
[I confess to holding a bizarre view that the ABC is the most balanced media organization in the country.]
I’ve always considered Crikey very balanced from day 1, although I was a bit upset when it became all professional and balanced as well.
davidwh at 1282
“I confess to holding a bizarre view that the ABC is the most balanced media organization in the country.”
I find myself thinking similarly.
[Was State Director of Libs in Vic and relieved them of over $1.5M.
Should be a hero on PB.]
Should be offered a life membership of the Vic branch of the ALP surely!
davodwh
[ I confess to holding a bizarre view that the ABC is the most balanced media organization in the country. ]
Perhaps – but you have to admit that the other media organizations set the bar very low.
For those wanting to see what the ABC did on the Mantach case, in Victoria:
http://iview.abc.net.au/programs/abc-news-vic/NC1520V276S00
In Tasmania:
http://iview.abc.net.au/programs/abc-news-tas/NC1545T276S00
(Disclaimer, I have not actually watched the Tasmanian news)
[Perhaps – but you have to admit that the other media organizations set the bar very low.]
And that balance of itself is of very limited utility and but a very small part of what make good journalism good.
Yes, it’s not really a question of balance, that’s a bit of a red herring. It’s more a question of what is covered and what is not, and the limited range of views presented.
But the media in general in Australia is pretty dire. As I’ve noted before some of the best journos are ABC foreign correspondents. Maybe they are not subject to the ABC’s patented anti-bias, enhanced balance software.
WWP
[ And that balance of itself is of very limited utility and but a very small part of what make good journalism good. ]
The ABC has very few journalists left of any description, let alone “good” ones. All it has are a few unashamedly biased commentators like Uhlmann, some light weight talk-show hosts like Jones and some fairy-floss like Crabb.
[Never heard of him. Is he a footballer?]
Kinda proves my point. Had he been a state director of the ALP, you most certainly would have heard of him nationwide.
The ABC’s obsession with balance is why AGW denialists get such a good run on the network. Very poor really.
RIP Jonah Lomu
One of the most awesome sportsmen I have seen in any sport.
[I know what I said will not overcome your ABC hatred and paranoia. Try therapy.]
You really don’t like it when people disagree with you, so you resort to the kind of crap above.
Morrison apparently can’t help making strange expectations.
[Government set to focus Syrian refugee program on Christians in wake of Paris attacks: Scott Morrison
In the wake of the attacks in Paris, Federal Cabinet Minister Scott Morrison says he expects Christians will be the focus of the Australian government’s Syrian refugee program.
The head of the government’s Syrian Refugee Resettlement Task Force, Peter Vardos, told the ABC Christians would not be given priority to be resettled in Australia.
“There is no selection based purely on religion, as has been suggested in some quarters,” Mr Vardos said recently while on a trip to a Syrian refugee camp in Jordan.]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-11-18/morrison-expects-christians-to-be-focus-of-refugee-program/6952854
If Turnbull, Morrison, or whoever, were to sell the ABC to Murdoch I doubt there would be any noticeable difference in news and current affairs coverage. The only things that would change is the pretense that the organisation is ‘fair and balanced’ and that Kitchen Cabinet would be sponsored by Coles the Fresh Food People.